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cover of episode (Preview) A 90-Day Pause, Big Tariff Reductions and What De-Escalation Might Mean for the U.S. and China

(Preview) A 90-Day Pause, Big Tariff Reductions and What De-Escalation Might Mean for the U.S. and China

2025/5/13
logo of podcast Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Sharp China with Bill Bishop

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Andrew Sharp: 我认为这次美中达成的90天暂停协议并建立对话机制是一个积极的进展。美国由耶伦和戴琪领导谈判,中国由何立峰负责,具体执行由廖岷和李成钢负责。关税的降低幅度超出预期,这表明双方都有意缓和紧张局势。虽然结构性问题仍然存在,但这次暂停为双方提供了一个机会,可以重新评估并寻找可能的解决方案。硬性的脱钩对中美双方都有害,暂停对双方都有意义。 Bill Bishop: 我认为中国可以把这90天看作是TikTok延期的翻版,如果没有达成更好的协议,特朗普总统可能会再次延期。中国对能够通过展示进展来继续延长谈判感到自信。中国非常擅长通过对话来达成目的,他们想要对话机制和指定负责人。中方派公安部副部长参加会议,表明他们可能认真对待芬太尼问题,这对美国和特朗普总统来说很重要。中国的半官方和官方媒体将此描述为美国的一次退让,是中国的一次重大胜利。我认为双方都有所让步,但中方有信心让特朗普政府做出更多让步,因为特朗普比中国更容易受到市场和政治压力的影响。这次只是一个暂停,双方可以重组,中国比2018、2019年准备得更充分,但类似的暂停以前也发生过,未来可能还有更多波折。很多事情和2018、2019年一样,美国方面的实际诉求仍不清楚,中国不太可能同意特朗普最初想要的结构性改变。

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Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today's show Andrew and Bill gather on short notice with reactions to Monday's news of a deal between the U.S. and China to significantly reduce tariffs for ninety days, while establishing a formal dialogue mechanism to discuss trade and economic issues. Topics include: Why a pause made sense for both sides, Trump's reference to the PRC and its "non-monetary barriers," the wins and opportunities that the PRC may see after the past several days, and the risks to the U.S. side as the rest of the world processes the past six weeks of policy choices.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

Surprise US-China trade de-escalation; Rare earths; National security white paper; China-Latin America Forum in Beijing — Sinocism)

Surprise U.S.-China Trade Deal Gives Global Economy Reprieve — Wall Street Journal)

Trump Says China Agreed to Roll Back Non-Tariff Barriers — Bloomberg)

Who blinked first? How the US and China broke their trade deadlock — Financial Times)

US-UK trade deal squeezes China supply chains — Financial Times)