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cover of episode (Preview) Bessent and an ‘Unsustainable’ Path; Making Sense of Hourly Madness; The PRC’s Message to the World; A Note on Canada

(Preview) Bessent and an ‘Unsustainable’ Path; Making Sense of Hourly Madness; The PRC’s Message to the World; A Note on Canada

2025/4/23
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Sharp China with Bill Bishop

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Andrew Sharp: 我认为美国财政部长贝森特关于美中关税僵局不可持续,并预计局势将缓和的言论,以及他认为达成协议是有可能的观点,是本周的一个重要发展。虽然他提到谈判尚未开始,但这表明美国方面可能正在寻求某种程度的缓和。同时,美国国内也面临着来自商业界、投资者和国会的巨大压力,要求对关税政策进行调整,这进一步增加了缓和局势的可能性。 然而,关税政策的真正影响才刚刚开始显现,未来几个月情况可能会更糟,可能会出现短缺和价格上涨。因此,即使美国政府希望缓和局势,其国内的经济和政治压力也可能迫使他们采取行动。 Bill Bishop: 我认为中国方面会将贝森特的言论解读为美国软弱的表现,并认为中国坚持目前的策略是正确的。中国一直坚持认为美国最终将无法承受痛苦而不得不妥协。虽然中国也希望美中贸易战能够尽快结束或得到缓解,但他们仍然面临着寻找合适的对话对象的问题。 此外,中国非常清楚美国国内的政治局势,他们知道中期选举的结果可能会受到贸易战的影响。因此,中国可能会试图拖延时间,直到2028年美国领导层发生变化,以期在更有利的情况下解决贸易争端。他们也明白,美国关税政策的真正影响尚未显现,如果持续下去,可能会对美国经济造成严重损害,并影响2024年美国中期选举的结果。 总的来说,我认为中国会继续坚持他们的策略,等待美国主动寻求妥协。虽然他们也希望局势能够缓和,但他们更倾向于在更有利于自己的条件下达成协议。

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Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday’s signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what’s next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping likely hurts their cause with third-party countries. At the end: A dispatch from Yiwu, more on PRC messages to third-party countries, and a listener’s note on Trump’s caustic approach to Canada.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

Appeasement of the US is not an option; Wang Yi on Xi's trip; Private economy law; More pilots for service sector opening — Sinocism)

Bessent Expects Tariff Standoff With China to De-Escalate — Bloomberg)

US markets rally as Treasury secretary says China trade war is ‘unsustainable’ — Financial Times)

China warns countries against striking trade deals with US at its expense — Reuters)

China urges Japan to help fight US tariffs together, Kyodo reports — Reuters)

Wang Yi urges stronger China-Austria ties, slams U.S. tariffs — CGTN)

Wang Yi holds phone call with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, stressing shared responsibility to uphold multilateral trade system — Global Times)

‘You Think We’re Afraid of America?’ — The Atlantic)

3 takeaways from my visit to Yiwu, the frontlines of the trade war — Chang Che)

Blame Canada - South Park — YouTube)