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cover of episode (Preview) The PRC and the Past Two Weeks in Iran; Ten Speeches in Taiwan; London Framework Faltering?; All Eyes on the EU

(Preview) The PRC and the Past Two Weeks in Iran; Ten Speeches in Taiwan; London Framework Faltering?; All Eyes on the EU

2025/6/25
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Sharp China with Bill Bishop
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Andrew Sharp: 我认为中国对伊朗局势的反应是复杂的。一方面，如果伊朗开始大量购买中国的先进武器，这可能为中国的军工联合体带来巨大的机遇。但另一方面，我不确定中国是否真的乐于看到这种情况发生，因为这会加剧地区的不确定性。而且，美国对中国购买伊朗石油的制裁政策也存在不确定性，这使得中国在伊朗问题上的立场更加微妙。 此外，我引用Tucker Carlson的观点，虽然他的预测过于危言耸听，但也点出了伊朗作为金砖国家成员的重要性，以及袭击伊朗可能引发世界大战的风险。当然，金砖国家并非军事联盟，但伊朗与俄罗斯的军事联系以及对中国的石油出口，都使得伊朗局势更加复杂。总的来说，我认为美国需要采取行动来纠正“美国是纸老虎”的说法，而中国则会继续试图将美国描绘成鲁莽的战争贩子。 Bill Bishop: 我认为中国不太可能为了军工联合体的机遇而牺牲当前的不确定性。中国购买了伊朗90%以上的石油，而且由于国际制裁，这些石油的价格在过去几年里大幅打折。虽然目前的折扣已经缩小，但仍然具有重要意义。此外，我认为伊朗领导人可能对中国未采取任何行动感到不满，这可能会损害中国在盟友中的信誉。中国不希望卷入外国军事纠纷，他们看到了苏联解体和美国遭受的损害。然而，作为上海合作组织的成员，伊朗可能质疑其成员资格的价值，因为他们只得到声明和公报，而没有实际利益。总的来说，我认为目前的情况对北京来说是一个相对积极的结果，因为他们避免了最坏的情况，即政权更迭。但如果真的实现停火，并且核计划被推迟多年，那么至少在该地区，它确实重新确认了美国的重要性。中国可能遭受了一些损失，比如人们认为他们只能举办不错的会议和发布不错的公报，但在真正需要帮助时却无能为力。他们在伊朗伙伴关系和关系上投入了很多，但到目前为止，这对他们来说并不奏效。至少目前，该政权仍然掌权，中国仍然从伊朗购买大量石油，霍尔木兹海峡仍然开放。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes China's perspective on the recent attacks on Iran, focusing on the lack of Chinese intervention and the implications for regional stability and China's relationships with its allies. The discussion includes the potential benefits for the Chinese military-industrial complex and the impact on China's credibility.
  • China's potential benefits from military-industrial complex.
  • The impact of China's inaction on its credibility with allies.
  • Concerns about the transactional nature of PRC partnerships.

Shownotes Transcript

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC perspectives on the past two weeks of attacks on Iran. Topics include: Dispelling notions that U.S. involvement was welcomed by the PRC, why regional stability in the Middle East is stressed in every PRC statement, and how Iran and other PRC partners may view China's inaction over the last few weeks. From there: President William Lai delivers the first of ten speeches on national unity in Taiwan, the PRC offers a blistering response, and it may be time to brace for a rocky summer. At the end: The London agreement between the U.S. and China is under duress, EU leaders sound increasingly hawkish as the EU-China summit looms, Trump gives TikTok its third extension, and Congressional testimony brings the PRC swimming scandal back to the spotlight.

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Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

China and the Iran-Israel conflict; Lai: "Taiwan is of course a country"; Rickety "London Framework"; Curbing “involution-style” competition — Sinocism)

Xi-Putin call; Rare earths and the EU; Opening exit paths for tech firms; TikTaco — Sinocism)

China’s influence tested by US air strikes on Iran but direct role unlikely: analysts — SCMP)

Lai begins 10-stop tour with speech on ‘nation’ — Taipei Times)

No Chinese diplomats remain in Lithuania — LRT)

How Sarunas Marciulionis Opened Pandora's Box — Sports Illustrated (2018))

Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don’t exist — CNN (2023))

Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize — Bloomberg)

US may target Samsung, Hynix, TSMC operations in China, sources say — Reuters)

EU foreign policy chief calls for ‘dose of realism’ in China relations — SCMP)

Statement by President von der Leyen at Session II - working lunch of the G7, 'Economic growth, security and resilience' — EU Commission)

Trump to extend TikTok sale deadline for third time, White House says — Reuters)

Trump’s Continuing Illegal Refusal to Enforce the TikTok Ban — Executive Function)

Had a belly full. Could Chinese swimmers have eaten 5 kilos of food en route to failed doping test? — AP)