We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Tariffs and the Escalatory Cycle; China and the Fentanyl Crisis; TSMC Plans and Nvidia Scrutiny; Hard Times for Moutai

Tariffs and the Escalatory Cycle; China and the Fentanyl Crisis; TSMC Plans and Nvidia Scrutiny; Hard Times for Moutai

2025/3/5
logo of podcast Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Sharp China with Bill Bishop
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Andrew Sharp
B
Bill Bishop
Topics
Andrew Sharp: 我关注到特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，将对中国商品征收的关税提高到20%。中国对此做出了回应，实施了高达15%的关税，并禁止与一些美国国防公司进行贸易。这些行动可能导致双方陷入损害彼此的针锋相对的循环。此外，我还关注到中国外交部发表声明，谴责美国加征关税，并警告美国不要采取胁迫手段。我认为美国对中国加征关税，意在解决芬太尼危机根源问题，而非仅仅打击美国境内的贩毒行为。美国利用市场作为杠杆来解决芬太尼危机，这是中国自身策略的后果。美国对墨西哥和加拿大的关税，旨在阻止通过第三方国家转运商品，并促使他们加强禁毒合作。我还关注到中国买家正在购买英伟达最新的AI芯片，这表明美国对华芯片禁令存在漏洞。新加坡正在调查英伟达芯片通过中间商流入中国的可能性，这凸显了芯片禁令执行的难度。字节跳动被报道大量采购经过修改的英伟达芯片，但其否认了这一说法。台积电计划在美国投资至少1000亿美元建设芯片工厂，这显示出台积电与美国政府的合作。两会期间，需要关注中国政府的政策声明和习近平与代表团的会面，以及中国政府对高质量发展和私营企业支持的表述。茅台酒的需求下降，反映了中国消费市场的低迷，也与反腐运动和消费降级有关。茅台酒面临着消费降级和市场竞争加剧的挑战。 Bill Bishop: 我认为中国对美国额外关税的回应是克制的，意在表明既不会被欺负，也会做出回应，同时又为谈判留有余地。中国发布白皮书，强调自身在打击芬太尼问题上的努力，并暗示美国应对芬太尼危机负有责任。中国难以确定与美国谈判的对象以及美国政府的真实意图。中国在与特朗普通话前，需要对美国方面的立场有明确的把握，以避免谈判破裂。特朗普政府内部对对华政策缺乏一致性，给中方与美方沟通带来困难。两会期间，中国可能采取的措施包括：提高预算赤字、降低通胀目标、设定GDP增长目标等。两会期间，需要关注习近平与代表团的会面以及由此传达的信息。中国官方媒体强调习近平一直支持私营企业，反映出政府对私营经济的重视。中国政府对私营企业的重视，反映出经济形势的严峻以及对技术发展的需求。中国政府正在采取措施，以增强私营企业的信心，支持其发展。中国的“认罪从轻”制度可能被滥用，侵犯被告人权利。国际足联拒绝执行中国对韩国球员孙准浩的终身禁赛判决，表明其对中国司法制度的质疑。中国的“认罪从轻”制度被用于打压企业家，特别是经济下行时期。中国的“认罪从轻”制度可能被地方政府用来敲诈勒索企业家。台积电在美国的投资可能不会涉及最先进的制程技术。美国政府可能进一步收紧对华芯片出口管制。对华芯片禁令存在漏洞，难以完全阻止芯片流入中国。加强芯片出口管制的执行需要更多人力资源，这在当前环境下可能难以实现。新加坡对英伟达芯片出口的调查，显示出一些国家在执行芯片出口管制方面的努力。尽管中国在AI领域取得进展，但其仍然依赖英伟达芯片。台积电在美国的投资，是其维护与美国关系的一种策略。美国可能进一步施压台湾，以防止其芯片工程师流向中国。茅台酒的需求下降，与反腐运动和消费降级有关。茅台酒面临着消费降级和市场竞争加剧的挑战。茅台酒的二级市场价格下跌，以及囤积茅台酒的风险，也对茅台酒公司构成挑战。特朗普政府的对华政策缺乏明确的战略目标和可预测性。

Deep Dive

Chapters
President Trump's recent 20% tariffs on Chinese goods, in response to the ongoing fentanyl crisis, have prompted a retaliatory response from China. The situation is tense, with both sides employing targeted measures, and the potential for a full-scale trade war remains a significant concern. The lack of clear communication and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's goals complicate any potential negotiation.
  • Trump raised tariffs on PRC goods to 20%, citing the fentanyl crisis
  • China retaliated with tariffs on US agricultural goods and banned trade with some defense companies
  • Both sides are trying to leave the door open for negotiations, but the risk of escalation remains high
  • The efficacy of using tariffs to address the fentanyl crisis is debated, with discussions on the role of precursor chemicals and supply chain disruption

Shownotes Transcript

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforcement only goes far. From there: A roundup of news on chips, including an investigation in Singapore, TSMC's investment in the United States, a Wall Street Journal report on Nvidia, and questions facing the Trump team as new policy takes shape. At the end: The New York Times reports on "plea leniency," FIFA won't play ball with the PRC, and a variety of Moutai thoughts as Kweichow Moutai struggles to find demand.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

US Tariffs; Two Sessions; Xi has always supported private enterprises; Peaceful China Initiative; Chips — Sinocism)

Response to US tariffs; Two Sessions begin; DeepSeek — Sinocism)

FURTHER AMENDMENT TO DUTIES ADDRESSING THE SYNTHETIC OPIOID SUPPLY CHAIN IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA — The White House)

Xi Leaves Door Open for Talks With Measured Response to Trump — Bloomberg)

Statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs — MoFA on Twitter)

BlackRock to buy Panama Canal ports after pressure from Donald Trump — Financial Times)

Canadian Police Say They Dismantled Country’s Largest Drug Lab — New York Times)

How Dirty Money From Fentanyl Sales Is Flowing Through China — Wall Street Journal)

Chinese Buyers Are Ordering Nvidia’s Newest AI Chips, Defying U.S. Curbs — Wall Street Journal)

Singapore Probes Potential Fraud in Nvidia AI Chip Shipments — Bloomberg)

Cover Story: DeepSeek Sets Up Race for Chinese Dominance in AI — Caixin)

Trump, Chip Maker TSMC Announce $100 Billion Investment in U.S. — Wall Street Journal)

The ‘Leniency’ Trap: How China’s Plea System Gives Prosecutors More Power — New York Times)

China’s tech minister removed from office — Financial Times)

Ebbing demand for China's favourite firewater adds to debt concerns — Reuters)

The Patrón of Xinghuacun - a modest proposal for Fenjiu — Moatless Musings)

Xi Jiu, A Baijiu Bet on Xi Jinping — Sinocism)