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cover of episode The Unraveling is Accelerating; Post-Escalation Options for the PRC; Trump Goals and EU Possibilities; Another Maddening TikTok Development

The Unraveling is Accelerating; Post-Escalation Options for the PRC; Trump Goals and EU Possibilities; Another Maddening TikTok Development

2025/4/9
logo of podcast Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Sharp China with Bill Bishop
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Bill Bishop: 我认为当前美中关系正处于非常危险的境地。贸易关系是两国关系的基石，其恶化将带来诸多不确定性。中国政府虽然声称已做好应对准备，但高额关税无疑会造成一定程度的经济损失。中国政府将美国此举视为遏制和压制中国的策略，这使得双方难以找到好的解决方案。中国不太可能采取人民币大幅贬值等措施来应对，因为这会损害其全球声誉，并加剧与其他国家的贸易紧张关系。中国错失了在节日期间缓和局势的机会，导致局势进一步升级。中国可能比美国更能承受经济压力，但美国也可能低估了中国承受压力的能力。 Andrew Sharp: 苹果公司对中国供应链的依赖使其面临巨大风险。特朗普政府的目标可能是通过关税来激励国内制造业，并利用关税作为杠杆与其他贸易伙伴谈判更有利的协议，从而孤立中国。对中国而言，彻底解决贸易问题可能比长期拖延更好。如果美中贸易关系破裂，两国关系将面临进一步的不稳定。

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Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent escalation of the US-China trade war, focusing on President Trump's imposition of new tariffs and China's potential responses. It explores the precarious state of US-China relations and the potential for further escalation.
  • New US tariffs of 104% on Chinese goods went into effect.
  • China's Ministry of Commerce called the tariffs a "mistake on top of a mistake."
  • The trade war is considered to be in its most dangerous position in a long time.

Shownotes Transcript

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the intensification of the US-China trade war, including tariffs of 104% beginning on Wednesday, the PRC's options to respond, how companies like Apple could be squeezed, and why this represents the lowest point for US-China relations in a very long time. Then: Exploring EU opportunities and challenges after Premier Li Qiang's call with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, the debunked report about South Korea and Japan cooperating with the PRC, and unpacking the risks and possibilities inherent to the course the US side has chosen over the past week. At the end: Reactions to the latest TikTok extension from President Trump, a report that Liu He's son is under investigation, and a new name for the gardening podcast that may be essential in the months to come.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

As the additional 50% US tariffs go into effect will the bottom fall out of the US-China relationship? — Sinocism)

Trump threatens 50% more tariffs on PRC; Trouble for Liu He's son; TikTok — Sinocism)

April 7 People's Daily on responses to US tariffs 集中精力办好自己的事 增强有效应对美关税冲击的信心 — Sinocism)

Apple’s China Problem, Apple in the Short Term, Tech’s Complement Risk — Stratechery)

China has the tools to weather Trump storm, Premier Li tells EU’s von der Leyen — SCMP)

China investigates ‘princeling’ amid crackdown on finance industry — Financial Times)

Trump punts on TikTok deal — app gets another 75 days — Politico)