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【时事经纬】（2025年2月21日） 特朗普称美中有可能达成新的贸易协议；哈马斯移交两名最年幼人质及其母亲的尸体；习近平与太子党恩恩怨怨第4集：刘亚洲的起与落；外资持续撤离中国 官方“稳外资”行动恐难奏效
- 2月 21日,2025年
2025/2/20
时事经纬 - 美国之音
毕
毕如谐
特
特朗普
美国企业家、政治人物及媒体名人，曾任第45任和第47任美国总统。
胡
胡平
陈
陈破空
特朗普：我预期习近平访美，两国有可能达成新的贸易协议，我没有透露具体时间表。
我将接管加沙地区，拆除炸弹和武器，发展经济，建设加沙，这是实现不同未来的唯一可行计划。
我对泽连斯基的严厉说法可能是谈判技巧，也可能是为了结束乌克兰战争并转向中国。
我很快将与普京举行会面。
习近平：（间接提及）与特朗普对话对缓解贸易关税至关重要。
（间接提及）刘亚洲因言多必失惹恼了我。
旁白/分析：习近平和特朗普之间的对话对缓解或推迟贸易关税至关重要。
哈马斯移交人质遗体，象征着哈马斯袭击造成的巨大创伤。
特朗普建议巴勒斯坦人迁居，美国接管和开发加沙，这为中东和谈开创了新的谈判点。
美俄单独谈判排除了乌克兰和欧洲，中国也感到不安；特朗普的举动颠覆了美国80年的外交政策。
美俄谈判艰难，没有实质性成果。
台湾高级安全事务官员：美国新政府依然强力支持台湾，台湾计划增加对美国的采购。
哈格曼：我认为美国接管加沙是个好主意，但特朗普可能指的是用新的方式解决人道主义危机。
艾布拉姆斯：特朗普关于加沙的想法可能很难实现，但其反传统思路可能会帮助人们反思加沙地带的未来。
萨尔兹曼：特朗普希望在中东达成大交易，促进美国的经济利益，避免代价高昂的冲突。
阿拉伯联合酋长国驻美国大使：特朗普提出的由美国重建加沙的计划是唯一可行的选择。
中国外交部发言人：中国反对强制转移加沙居民，支持以两国方案为根本出路。
陈破空：特朗普对泽连斯基的严厉说法可能是谈判技巧，也可能是为了结束乌克兰战争并转向中国。
美俄谈判艰难，没有实质性成果。
胡平：北京在俄乌会谈中是局外人，没有必要出席。
川普现在无法复制尼克松的“中制俄”策略，因为中俄关系友好。
张洪源：2021年以来，中国FDI几乎每年都下滑9%至11%。
美中贸易战、经济转型不如预期、内需消费疲软以及俄乌战争都降低了外资投资中国的意愿。
中国官方希望重新吸引外资，关键因素是准备与美国进行关税战争。
史赫林：中国本土企业在多个领域成功实现进口替代，挤压外资市场空间；中国政府给予本土企业更多优待。
中国国内企业已经能够替代国外企业，外资净流出的趋势很可能会持续很长一段时间。
蔡盛坤：中国监管环境的不确定性和严密的政治环境让外资望而却步。
黄建群：许多企业正在调整供应链，但中国仍然是全球第二大经济体，部分外企仍然看好中国市场的长期潜力。
毕如谐：习近平整治刘亚洲的理由是经济问题和私生活问题，但根本原因是刘亚洲在政治上对习构成威胁。
刘亚洲和任志强没有摆正位置，没有以君臣关系对待习近平。
supporting_evidences
特朗普：'We will take over the area, clear all unexploded ordnance and weapons, develop the economy of Gaza, and build Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East.'
特朗普：'Zelensky is a dictator, his approval rating is only 4%, he didn't choose peace.'
特朗普：'I will be meeting with Putin very soon.'
台湾高级安全事务官员：'The new US administration remains strongly supportive of Taiwan, and Taiwan plans to increase purchases from the US.'
哈格曼：'I think taking over Gaza is a good idea, but I think Trump may be talking about a new way to transform and solve the humanitarian crisis there.'
艾布拉姆斯：'While Trump's ideas about Gaza may be difficult to implement, his unconventional approach may help people reflect on the future of the Gaza Strip.'
萨尔兹曼：'One of Rubio's missions on his Middle East trip was to alleviate some of the concerns of Middle Eastern leaders about Trump's controversial statements. He believes Trump wants to make a big deal in the Middle East. On the one hand, Trump wants to promote US economic interests, and on the other hand, he doesn't want to risk involving the US in what he considers to be ineffective and costly military conflicts.'
阿拉伯联合酋长国驻美国大使：'The plan proposed by Trump for the US to rebuild Gaza is the only viable option.'
中国外交部发言人：'China opposes the forced relocation of Gazans and supports the two-state solution as the fundamental way out.'
张洪源：'Since 2021, China's FDI has been declining at an average rate of 9% to 11% annually.'
张洪源：'The US-China trade war, the less-than-expected economic transformation after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, weak domestic consumption, and the Russia-Ukraine war, which indirectly impacted China's export trade, have all reduced foreign investors' willingness to invest in China.'
史赫林：'In addition to the challenges of policy and economic environment, Chinese companies have successfully achieved import substitution in many areas such as home appliances and automobiles, further squeezing the survival space of foreign companies in the Chinese market. The consistent practice of the Chinese government is to learn all the technology and management knowledge brought by foreign investment after it enters China, and then replace it with domestic companies.'
蔡盛坤：'No one knows which law has been violated, especially national security. The supervision of the financial sector and foreign-invested enterprises is becoming increasingly strict. If you want to hire employees, invest, or do some consulting projects, it is basically impossible in China.'
黄建群：'Although many companies are adjusting their supply chains, China is still the world's second-largest economy, with a huge market capacity. Many foreign companies remain optimistic about the long-term potential of the Chinese market.'
毕如谐：'Xi Jinping's crackdown on Liu Yazhou was certainly not based on personal grievances. The most convenient reason is economic problems and private life problems. Liu Yazhou's affairs in terms of gender relations and private life, how should we put it? To use an idiom, it's called celebrating the Southern Book List. At that time, it was known to everyone in the circle of children of Beijing cadres. Now, these things are exposed, and his reputation is ruined among the common people. This is very easy to do.'
Deep Dive
特朗普总统表示，他预计习近平主席将访美，两国之间有可能达成新的贸易协议。虽然具体细节尚未透露，但这表明特朗普愿意阻止正在酝酿的美中贸易战。
- 特朗普预计习近平访美
- 美中之间有可能达成新的贸易协议
- 特朗普愿意阻止美中贸易战
Shownotes Transcript