The EU-China Relationship in the Age of Trumpian Disruption, with Finbarr Bermingham of the SCMP
2025/4/29
Sinica Podcast
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Finbar Bermingham
Finbar Bermingham: 我认为在特朗普上任之前，中欧关系并非处于某种重新校准状态。我认为存在一种不成文的协议，即双方都决定暂缓敌对行动。这可以追溯到特朗普赢得大选的11月份。在此之前，围绕电动汽车关税问题发生过一场很大的争吵，欧盟强烈反对中国市场所谓的扭曲市场行为和产能过剩等问题。我认为，去年整体关系跌至新低。我认为，当特朗普当选后，欧盟和中国双方都决定保持谨慎观望。在此之前，我们预计这将演变成一场全面的贸易战。因此，我认为在那段时间里，双方几乎没有接触，他们彼此交流很少。双方都在等待特朗普上任后的行动。当他上任后，甚至在他就职典礼之前，当关于吞并格陵兰岛的讨论出现时，你开始看到布鲁塞尔出现紧张情绪，尤其是在就职典礼之后，特朗普开始大肆宣扬关税等问题时，你很快就会注意到布鲁塞尔一些以前比较强硬的政治家的言论发生了变化。例如，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩。我认为，可以说，在此之前，情况更像是：好吧，让我们保持谨慎观望。我们不知道世界将会走向何方，但在我们确切了解特朗普先生的计划之前，让我们不要与中国彻底决裂。
2021年的制裁只是导致欧盟与中国关系恶化的众多因素之一，新冠疫情和“战狼外交”也起到了重要作用。欧盟内部对华政策存在分歧，德国一直主张更多接触，而匈牙利则扮演着破坏者的角色。中国在特朗普卸任、拜登就职之间的过渡期促成《全面投资协定》(CAI)，此举意在表明即便面对美国的敌意，欧洲仍愿意与中国达成协议。欧盟最初对跨大西洋联盟破裂的反应是震惊和否认，直到泽连斯基在椭圆办公室的遭遇才真正意识到美国已改变立场。中国的“魅力攻势”是协调一致的，旨在试探欧洲当时的立场，并没有提供新的实质性内容。欧盟内部正在讨论减少对华和对美依赖，多个成员国都在推动这一议程。泽连斯基在椭圆办公室的遭遇是转折点，促使欧盟更加坚定地寻求战略自主。欧盟对华采取的是双轨策略，既在缓和关系，也在推动去风险化政策。欧盟对华采取的务实主义策略可能是对特朗普的暂时性回应，但也可能演变成更根本性的战略转变。各成员国对华投资的国家利益正在重塑欧盟的共识，欧盟内部的分歧正被中美两国利用。欧盟能否从中国获得让步存在争议，一些人认为欧盟拥有巨大杠杆作用，另一些人则持怀疑态度。欧盟担心特朗普会与中国达成单独协议，从而使欧盟孤立无援。中国除了言辞之外，并没有提供太多新的实质性让步，取消对部分欧洲议员的制裁是一个信号，但其影响还有待观察。在务实主义盛行的时代，欧洲呼吁回归基于价值观的外交的呼声有所减弱，但并非完全被边缘化。乌克兰战争后，欧洲对华关系中安全因素的考量有所增加，但并未达到美国那样程度。欧盟不太可能有效解决中国产能过剩问题，更多的是采取保障措施。欧盟目前与中国的接触可能是对特朗普的暂时性回应，也可能是对多极世界秩序中自身地位的长期重新评估。美国战略界往往误解欧洲对华战略姿态，他们往往忽略欧洲的自主性和自身利益。
Kaiser Guo: (补充问题和引导性发言，未形成独立观点)
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Finbar Bermingham: 'So I think there was very little contact in that period. They weren't talking to each other very much.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think it's fair to say that before that it was more like, OK, let's keep our powder dry. We don't know where the world is going, but let's not totally fall out with China until we see exactly what Mr Trump planned. plans to do.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'You know, I would say there's probably about four or five issues. ...And, you know, so the sanctions was certainly a big part of things that helped really lower the, like help deteriorate the relationship. It changed opinion among the political classes in Brussels and other parts of Europe towards China. But it was one of a number of factors.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'But if you were to be generalizing, I suppose Germany has always advocated for more engagement, right? ...Hungary, for political reasons and more recently economic reasons, you've seen quite a lot of Chinese investment in Hungary, but politically it has always been a bit of a spoiler, let's say, on EU-China policy.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think the timing was perfect for Beijing. ...But at the end of the day, it showed that that in the face of American hostility to China, that Europe was still willing to sit down and cut a deal.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think it took, depending on who you're, ...one of which was after the defenestration of Zelensky in the Oval Office.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think it was quite coordinated. ...There was nothing being offered.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think you hear it from quite a broad base of capitals.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'Yeah, I think you're right. ...And then all of a sudden that just stopped because people realized, OK, well, we've lost America, but he's the Ukraine.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'Yeah, I think that's right. ...It's a bit like, as somebody described to me, this partner-rival-competitor-rival triptych can be a bit like the traffic lights all flashing the same color at the same time'
Finbar Bermingham: 'It's sort of like chicken and egg. ...But I do think that this sort of element of realpolitik, this sort of pragmatism, whatever you want to call it, outreach to the rest of the world has been very prominent.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'My sense is that, you know, in this, ...Are they aware? ...The EU is a vociferous entity, right?'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think what you asked there is, does Brussels believe it can extract these concessions or is it wishful thinking? I think it's both.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'Very much so. ...But one of those elements that they wanted to suggest was that maybe they can work together with Trump on what they describe as the shared challenges posed by China.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'If we were having this conversation yesterday, I would say no. The only thing that's happened in the meantime is that China will drop the sanctions on some of the MEPs.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I don't know if it's fair to say they're being sidelined, but you are hearing a little bit less on that front.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'Good questions. ...So there was this sort of genesis of a conversation about that, but it's never really been front and centre.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I don't think so. ...And politically, I don't know that the will is there.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I'm not sure that's how you think of that piece because it was a title probably put on by some sub-editor, ...but you know the piece I'm talking about.'
Finbar Bermingham: 'I think there's a sort of knee-jerk response. ...But it's just being Europe, and I think that'
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