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cover of episode All about the RMB with Robin Brooks

All about the RMB with Robin Brooks

2025/7/2
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Sinocism Podcast

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Robin Brooks: 我认为人民币的任何贬值都会对全球市场产生巨大的影响,因为人民币基本上是与美元挂钩的。这种紧密管理意味着任何波动都会对市场产生放射性影响。2015年人民币贬值引发了国内恐慌,人们担心储蓄贬值。当时中国动用了大量外汇储备来管理人民币贬值,但这种做法适得其反,反而给了人们一个退出窗口,可以抢在央行前面将资金兑换成美元。我认为,如果美国真的实施关税,中国需要贬值货币以应对负面冲击。如果大幅调整贬值幅度,就不会有太多人抢先行动。人民币贬值是美国国债市场出现问题的一个重要原因,因为中国是大量商品进口国,人民币贬值对新兴市场有巨大的溢出效应。中国贬值货币会削弱新兴市场,导致新兴市场出售美国国债,从而破坏美国国债市场的稳定。

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On Wednesday, July 3rd I hosted Robin J Brooks) for a discussion about the RMB.

Robin is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and formerly Chief Economist at the IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs. He writes an excellent and free Substack) which I highly recommend.

Some of Robin’s views may be controversial to some, especially his argument that the PRC has more leverage over the US in the trade war because it was the very slight devaluation of the RMB against the USD just after the April 2nd tariff “Liberation Day” that was the proximate cause of the US bond market going “yippy”, which ultimately forced President Trump to back down. We had a good back and forth on that topic.

I learned a lot from the whole conversation and I think you will too. And if you enjoyed it please “like” it and restack it on Substack, and send to your friends and contacts.

Thanks for watching. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe)