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cover of episode Sinocism Live: A chat with Jon Czin about US-China, Xi Jinping & some other fun topics

Sinocism Live: A chat with Jon Czin about US-China, Xi Jinping & some other fun topics

2025/3/21
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Sinocism Podcast

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Jonathan Czin: 我认为美中关系目前正处于下降趋势，但尚未进入全面对抗阶段，更像是一种‘假战’状态。特朗普政府的政策波动性给北京带来焦虑，他们不喜欢这种不确定性。我更担心的是美中之间可能达成某种‘大交易’，这可能比关系的下降趋势更令人担忧，因为它可能涉及台湾等安全问题，以及对美国在其他领域的让步。 关于‘大交易’，我认为它可能分三个层次：首先是贸易问题，然后是中国对美国投资的审查，最后是涉及台湾和美国在印太地区盟友的更广泛的安全问题。中国似乎渴望就‘大交易’进行对话，但令人担忧的是，美国最终可能会在谈判中做出哪些让步，以及中国是否会履行承诺。特朗普政府不太可能接受中国提出的仅涉及购买行为的协议，他们会寻求更全面的协议。中国可能只会重复之前的承诺，而不会做出实质性的结构性改革，并且习近平不太可能因为美国的外部压力而转向改革，因为他已经面临国内经济压力。 安排像习近平这样的领导人之间的会晤通常需要较长时间的准备，中方需要一个令人信服的理由以及确保会晤顺利进行的条件。中国在与特朗普政府的谈判中采取了与加拿大和墨西哥不同的策略，他们选择保持沉默，以制造不确定性。 试图离间中俄关系的想法可能适得其反，反而会强化中俄之间的合作，因为中俄关系比以往任何时候都更加密切，试图离间它们不太可能成功。中俄两国拥有共同的世界观，并视美国为共同敌人，致力于削弱美国在全球的地位。 我认为习近平目前在政治上不可动摇，因为他已经清除任何潜在的反对力量，并且执政时间已久。习近平巩固权力，使得任何反对他的行动都变得太迟了。中国之前的集体领导制度名存实亡，权力并没有真正制度化。习近平的反腐运动首先针对军队，目的是为了在政治上控制军队。苗华的落马可能与其利用职权建立个人网络有关。 评估中国政治谣言时，应结合背景信息和自身分析框架，而非仅仅依赖信息来源。中国官方公布的信息并不一定反映真实情况。对军队官员的清洗并不一定意味着习近平的权力削弱，反而可能表明他对军队缺乏信心，并对腐败和舞弊行为采取零容忍态度。习近平将台湾纳入中国可能与其政治遗产有关，但他目前缺乏实现这一目标的有效策略，并且他目前对解放军缺乏信心，因此不太可能采取军事行动攻台，但他未来的策略可能会发生变化。 Bill: (无核心论点) supporting_evidences

Deep Dive

Chapters
Jonathan Czin shares his journey into the China-watching business, from his early interest in politics sparked by 9/11 to his role at the CIA.
  • Czin's interest in national security was piqued by 9/11.
  • He initially studied Arabic but shifted focus to Sino-Soviet relations.
  • Czin became an analyst at the CIA, focusing on China.

Shownotes Transcript

Thanks to everyone who joined the live discussion tonight.

This is a recording of a March 20th, 2025 Sinocism Live conversation with Jonathan Czin, now the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, and before that was for many years at the CIA as one of the US intelligence community’s top China experts. He was director for China at the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, where he staffed all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi.

I learned a lot from Jonathan Czin) in this conversation and I think you will too.

His recent work:

What Beijing wants from a US-China trade war - Brookings)

Burying Deng: Xi Jinping and the Abnormalization of Chinese Politics - China Leadership Monitor)

Thoughts on the political demise of Miao Hua - Brookings)

Abetting competition, restraining Beijing: Recommendations for diplomacy toward China - Brookings)

And his *bio)*:

Jonathan A. Czin is joining the Brookings Institution as the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community’s top China experts.

Czin led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China, including all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues.

He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. Czin holds a master’s in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe)