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cover of episode The Consequences of Getting on Europe’s Bad Side

The Consequences of Getting on Europe’s Bad Side

2025/2/22
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Slate Money
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Elizabeth Spiers
E
Emily Peck
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Felix Salmon
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Felix Salmon: 我担心美国与欧洲关系的黄金时代即将结束。美国政府一系列声明向欧洲暗示，美国的安全保障承诺并非真心实意，并且将主要威胁归咎于欧洲的‘觉醒政治’而非俄罗斯。这种对俄罗斯的明显转向，以及对乌克兰总统泽连斯基的批评，让我开始思考：我们现在是不是反派？如果美国被欧洲视为敌对超级大国，那么不仅会严重损害欧洲经济，还会损害美国经济，因为美国的财富和繁荣很大程度上取决于其与世界各国（尤其是富裕国家）的联盟关系，而这些联盟关系与美国的安保和国防力量密不可分。 美国与欧洲的经济联系非常紧密，远远超过美国与中国的经济联系。美国公司雇佣了500万欧洲员工，欧洲公司雇佣了500万美国员工。美国60%的外国投资来自欧洲，美国60%以上的外国投资流向欧洲。美欧两国贡献了全球GDP的50%以上。如果美国与欧洲关系恶化，这种经济联系将受到严重损害，对美国经济造成巨大冲击。 与俄罗斯改善关系的好处远不及与欧洲关系恶化带来的风险。美国很擅长切断与俄罗斯的贸易，但却几乎无法恢复贸易。即使贸易恢复，其规模也微不足道，不值得拿与欧洲的关系来交换。 Elizabeth Spiers: 美国政府对欧洲关系的恶化，与其反民主的总体基调以及对经济的考量有关。当美国官员暗示俄罗斯是比欧洲更好的合作伙伴时，这与美国政府的反民主倾向是一致的，同时也与对经济的考量有关。欧洲对美国政策的转变感到震惊，这不仅会对民主和安全产生影响，还会对美国国内经济造成损害。 Emily Peck: 特朗普政府对欧洲的敌对态度可能会降低欧洲公司对美国投资的兴趣，因为不确定性会降低投资吸引力。即使目前局势稳定，但如果这种关系变得不稳定，那么美国将不再是一个可靠的伙伴，这将对美国经济产生长期影响。此外，如果欧洲将美国科技巨头视为敌对国家的象征，那么欧洲可能会对美国公司采取报复性行动，这将导致一场没有人想要的消耗战。欧洲与美国关系破裂可能会导致欧洲增加国防开支，但这未必会促进经济增长，反而可能会加剧其财政状况，增加债务。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The US's shift towards Russia and away from Europe is economically risky, given the strong trade and investment ties between the US and Europe. This move could negatively impact both the European and US economies. The economic relationship between the US and Europe is far stronger than that between the US and China, making the potential economic fallout far more significant.
  • US companies employ 5 million Europeans, European companies employ 5 million Americans
  • 60% of foreign investment into the US comes from Europe
  • More than 60% of foreign investment by the US goes into Europe
  • The US and Europe account for more than 50% of global GDP

Shownotes Transcript

This week: The US is weakening ties with its biggest ally while embracing an old enemy. Felix Salmon), Emily Peck), and Elizabeth Spiers) explain how the Trump administration’s antagonization of Europe – and further alignment with Russia – could mean major economic blowback if it goes far enough. Then, rumor has it that Intel is looking to sell parts of its business off to foreign firms Broadcom and TSMC, possibly with Trump's blessing. The hosts explore the likelihood of the deal happening and the frankly confusing logic of it all. Finally, they discuss The Cut’s deep dive into the brand Quince) and what makes the “one stop dupe shop” so popular. Plus, another edition of Egg Watch 2025 featuring the Wall Street of Eggs).

In the Slate Plus episode: Med spas are taking over America).

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Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth.

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