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cover of episode Investing at market high, market timing, best distribution strategy

Investing at market high, market timing, best distribution strategy

2024/12/4
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Sound Investing
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P
Paul
投资专家和教育者，专注于小盘价值基金的分析和教育。
Topics
Paul 认为，只使用低成本目标日期基金和全球总指数基金进行退休投资是可以的，尤其是在有其他退休收入来源（如养老金和社保）的情况下。他认为目标日期基金旨在提供足够的退休收入，即使在小型股价值投资组合在某些年份表现不如大盘的情况下，长期来看，其平均回报率更高。投资者应避免因短期波动而调整投资策略。 Paul 还讨论了退休后的资金分配问题，指出退休后的资金分配比积累阶段更复杂，需要考虑寿命、健康状况和潜在风险等不确定因素。他建议寻求专业人士的帮助，制定个性化的分配策略，并介绍了固定收益和灵活收益两种分配策略的优缺点。他指出，灵活的退休资金分配策略虽然长期来看可能带来更高的总回报，但也存在短期内收入不足的风险，尤其是在市场表现不佳的情况下。建议投资者根据自身财务状况和风险承受能力选择合适的分配策略。 Paul 还谈到了Merriman财富管理公司既提供价值投资策略，也提供市场择时策略。他本人过去曾参与市场择时策略的开发，但现在更倾向于价值投资策略，并认为大多数投资者难以成功进行市场择时。他建议投资者采用机械化的投资策略，例如定期定投或根据市场调整仓位。 对于孙辈的投资，Paul 建议采用多元化的投资策略，而不是将所有资金都投资于小型股价值。他认为，当前市场估值较高，投资者应谨慎投资。历史数据表明，市场存在周期性波动，投资者应做好应对市场风险的准备。他建议投资者保持多元化投资，包括股票和债券，并做好长期投资的准备。

Deep Dive

Chapters
A listener questions the efficacy of using target-date funds and total market funds for retirement. Paul Merriman confirms their suitability for achieving adequate retirement income, especially when combined with other income sources like pensions. He also discusses the psychological impact of market fluctuations on investment decisions, highlighting the importance of staying the course and diversification.
  • Target date funds are designed to provide 'enough' for retirement.
  • Diversification within target date funds helps manage market volatility.
  • Adding small-cap value can enhance returns but requires discipline.

Shownotes Transcript

The podcast is dedicated to answering questions about:

 Target date funds:  “Do you think someone that simply maxes out their retirement accounts with target date funds and total market funds will be “fine”?

Selecting a distribution strategy:  What advice can you give to a DIY investor who is trying to decide what to do about how they access their money to live on and how much to take out?

Buy and Hold vs. market timing:  I believe in buy and holding  index funds, with low expenses. I don’t think I need to pay an investment advisor to help me do that.  I see the Merriman Wealth Management firm offers buy and hold and market timing services and charges AUM fees.  This is very different from what you suggest on your Foundation website.  What is your relationship with the Merriman firm and what are your beliefs about market timing?

All small cap value portfolio:  Do you know investors who are investing 100% of their portfolios in small cap value?  It seems like it might be a smart thing to do with very long term investments for a very young person.

Time to start market timing:   I am thinking about using timing with a large amount of new money.  Who do you use for the market timing aspect of your portfolio management?  

Flexible vs. fixed distribution strategies:  "I believe you expect that a flexible withdrawal strategy will pay out more money to live on, as well as leave more money to heirs.  Bill Bengen seems to believe that this strategy is not sustainable over the long term even if a person had enough money to accept lower annual withdrawal amounts in market draw downs.  Flexible withdrawal strategies make sense to me but there isn’t much writt en about them.  What am I missing?”

The answer to this question includes 4 distribution tables:  

Table D1.4 - Fixed Distributions: S&P 500 Equity Portfolio - Conservative ($40,000/yr))

Table F1.4 - Flexible Distributions (Conservative-4.0%/yr): S&P 500 Equity Portfolio)

Table D4.4 - Fixed Distributions (Conservative-$40,000/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio )

Table F4.4 - Flexible Distributions (Conservative-4.0%/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio )

Finally Paul reads four Ben Carlson quotes about the nature of bull and bear markets.  Paul makes reference to a table of annual Price to Earning (P/E)ratios starting in 1871) and another comparing the S&P 500 Price to Book Value from 2000 to 2024.)