What We Know About Iran's Nuclear Program
06:55 Share

This message comes from NPR sponsor Charles Schwab with its original podcast On Investing. Each week, you'll get thoughtful, in-depth analysis of both the stock and the bond markets. Listen today and subscribe at schwab.com slash oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts. Today on State of the World, what we know about Iran's nuclear program.

You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. Things are shifting fast in the war between Israel and Iran, so I'll say here, this podcast is being taped in the early afternoon in Washington, D.C. on June 18th. And the big question remains, will the U.S. enter the conflict, perhaps by attacking Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities?

When President Trump was asked about that today, this is what he said. I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble. Israel's strikes on Iran began on Friday. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he ordered the attacks because he believed Iran was, quote, marching very quickly toward a nuclear weapon.

But the U.S. intelligence community believes Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program more than two decades ago. So who is right? We're going to hear from two NPR reporters who've been watching this closely. Science correspondent Jeff Brumfield and national security correspondent Greg Myrie. They spoke to A. Martinez. Greg, so let's start with you. Briefly lay out the arguments Israel and the U.S. are making about Iran's nuclear program.

So Israel's Netanyahu has argued literally for decades that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb. And he says Israel attacked now because Iran was making a big new push to get there rapidly. Now, he hasn't provided specifics, but he claimed the intelligence was clear and that he shared it with the U.S.,

Now, the U.S. intelligence community has taken a different position for a long time. It says Iran suspended the weapons program in 2003. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated this in congressional testimony on March 25th. She said Iran continued to enrich uranium, but it hadn't decided to make a bomb. She expressed very familiar information.

However, Trump has now contradicted Gabbard. He said, quote, I don't care what she said. I think they, meaning the Iranians, were very close to having it. All right. So, Jeff, can you cut through these conflicting accounts and tell us how close Iran actually is to a nuclear weapon?

Well, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has accumulated a little over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium-235. Now, to put that in perspective, a reactor, a typical research reactor, well, a typical civilian reactor requires about 5%.

90% is bomb grade, but getting from 60 to 90 is actually a pretty quick job. Most of the work is done at 60%. Experts say that's round enough for 10 nuclear weapons, but there's no public information to indicate Iran's taken that step to weaponize its uranium. Okay, so they have this uranium. So what else would they need to do to actually make the weapon?

You know, the most important thing they need to do is actually take the decision. We know they had a pretty advanced nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s. They do have the expertise. So that's, I think, part of the reason there's so much uncertainty because, you know, knowing what's in the head of the Iranians is tough. But beyond that, this uranium is currently in gas form. They'd have to turn it into a metal, fashion it into a bomb design. Now,

Netanyahu himself says that could take months or a year. Again, though, you know, at the moment, we don't know if they've taken any of those steps. All right. Now, Greg, President Trump has been very clear in the past that he doesn't want to get involved in another Middle East war. And he was negotiating with Iran. So what has changed his mind, apparently?

Yeah, it's not clear, but his tone and language has shifted very clearly over the past several days. This doesn't seem to have come about from anything he's necessarily hearing from top U.S. advisers or the intelligence community or the military. Now, Trump and Netanyahu did speak last week, four days before Israel launched the attack.

Netanyahu says Israel has been keeping the U.S. informed, though we don't know the level of detail. There's no real indication that Trump tried to stop Israel from launching the attack. And since then, he was initially at least supportive in general, but stressing the U.S. was not involved. So the picture that emerges seems to be Trump initially giving Israel a yellow light. You can do this, but it's your war.

The U.S. will help play Israel play defense, but not offense. But now with the Israeli operation going well so far from Israel's perspective, Trump seems open to the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement. OK, Greg, then if that's what happens, if there's going to be direct U.S. military involvement, what would the U.S.'s role be? What would they do?

Yeah, Israel wants the U.S. to do one big thing, use its massive bunker-busting bomb to hit the Fordow nuclear facility, which has this highly enriched uranium Jeff was mentioning. Now, this is a major challenge because Fordow is built into the side of a mountain that's a little over 100 miles south of Tehran. The U.S. bomb, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, is so big that only one U.S. plane can carry it, the B-2 bomber.

Israel relies almost entirely on U.S. planes and U.S. bombs, but it doesn't have this bomb or this plane. Israel has repeatedly requested this bomb from the U.S., but the U.S. has always declined. Jeff, do we know if this bomb would in fact destroy a nuclear facility protected by a mountain?

I'm not sure it's clear that we do, actually. So, you know, this bomb is 30,000 pounds. It's definitely one of the biggest bombs in the U.S. arsenal.

But this facility, Fordow, is more than 200 feet under hard mountain rock, and it is very difficult to penetrate that kind of rock, even with a bomb this big. So I think the strategy may involve trying to use multiple weapons to penetrate the rock and get down there, but...

Then you're talking about multiple flights of this bomber, multiple drops. They all have to hit the same location. It's starting to look like logistically it's a much more difficult mission. So I think there's a lot of open questions as to whether this is going to be the solution the Israelis hope it is. All right. That's NPR's Jeff Brumfield and Greg Myrie. Thanks, you two. It's your thing, eh? That's the state of the world from NPR. Thanks for listening.

This message comes from Schwab. At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus, get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award-winning service, low costs, and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more.

Support for NPR and the following message come from Rosetta Stone, the perfect app to achieve your language learning goals no matter how busy your schedule gets. It's designed to maximize study time with immersive 10-minute lessons and audio practice for your commute. Plus, tailor your learning plan for specific objectives like travel. Get Rosetta Stone's lifetime membership for 50% off and unlimited access to 25 language courses. Learn more at rosettastone.com slash NPR.

This message comes from Carvana. Carvana makes car selling easy. Just put in your license plate or VIN and get a real offer in seconds. Whether selling now or whenever feels right, sell with Carvana.