cover of episode Will Assad Survive in Syria? And Will the Conflict Widen Into a Regional War?

Will Assad Survive in Syria? And Will the Conflict Widen Into a Regional War?

2024/12/6
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Ali Zghaib
F
Fatima Salah
J
Joshua Landis
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Julian Barnes-Dacey
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Muaz Mustafa
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知名游戏《文明VII》的开场动画预告片旁白。
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Julian Barnes-Dacey认为，阿萨德政权的结构性弱点使其在叛军攻势面前不堪一击。俄罗斯和伊朗的支持减弱，也加剧了阿萨德政权的困境。叙利亚长期内战的僵局被打破，叛军取得重大进展，攻占了阿勒颇和哈马等战略要地。 Muaz Mustafa指出，阿萨德政权寻求俄罗斯和伊朗的军事援助，以应对叛军的攻势。俄罗斯出动战机轰炸叛军目标，伊朗则派遣民兵参与战斗。然而，这种支持能否扭转战局仍存在疑问。 Joshua Landis认为，阿萨德政权可能主要依靠国内亲政府武装力量对抗叛军，但这些力量可能因精疲力竭而难以取胜。叙利亚经济崩溃，民生凋敝，民众士气低落，阿萨德难以获得民众支持。 Jackie Northam报道了叙利亚战场的最新局势，以及阿萨德政权面临的严峻挑战。 Lauren Freyer则关注叙利亚内战对黎巴嫩的影响。叙利亚叛军逼近黎巴嫩边境，引发人们对地区冲突升级的担忧。黎巴嫩民众担心叙利亚冲突蔓延，破坏黎以停火协议，甚至引发地区战争。 Fatima Salah认为叙利亚内战与黎巴嫩冲突是同一场战争的不同战场，都针对“抵抗力量”（真主党及其支持者伊朗）。她担心叙利亚叛军可能与黎巴嫩真主党发生冲突，引发更大规模的战争。 Ali Zghaib则表达了对以色列空袭和叙利亚叛军的共同担忧，他认为如果两场战争合并，将导致更大规模的战争爆发，并终结停火协议。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Assad's position in Syria precarious?

Assad's regime has structural weaknesses exposed by recent rebel advances. His allies, Russia and Iran, are stretched thin by their own conflicts, limiting their support.

What role do Russia and Iran play in supporting Assad?

Russia provides military aid, while Iran sends in militias, primarily from Iraq, to bolster Assad's forces.

How have international sanctions impacted Syria?

Sanctions have crippled Syria's economy, leading to a 90% poverty rate and chronic shortages of electricity and state services.

What is the significance of the rebel advance towards Damascus?

The advance threatens Assad's hold on power and raises questions about the longevity of his regional and international support.

Why are Lebanese residents concerned about the Syrian conflict?

They fear the fighting could spill over, threatening a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and potentially escalating into a regional war.

How does Hezbollah's involvement in Lebanon affect the situation?

Hezbollah's use of the Lebanon-Syria border for weapons supply from Iran makes the region a target for Israeli airstrikes, increasing tensions.

What is the connection between the Syrian rebels and Israel?

There is speculation that Israel and the U.S. might support rebel advances to weaken Assad, Hezbollah, and Iran, potentially leading to a broader regional conflict.

What are the fears of residents on the Lebanon-Syria border?

They fear the convergence of Israeli airstrikes and Syrian rebel advances could break the ceasefire and ignite a larger war.

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent rebel advances in Syria and assesses the viability of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The rebels' swift capture of key cities like Aleppo and Hama exposed the regime's structural weaknesses and highlighted the limitations of its allies' support. The chapter explores the challenges Assad faces in maintaining power amidst economic hardship and dwindling support from his people.
  • Rebel groups seized control of Aleppo and Hama, exposing the regime's weaknesses.
  • Assad's allies, Iran and Russia, are stretched thin due to other conflicts.
  • The Syrian economy is crippled by sanctions, leading to widespread poverty and lack of state services.
  • Assad's lack of charisma and his inability to connect with his people contribute to his precarious position.

Shownotes Transcript

Rebels in Syria are making rapid advances against the government forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Assad has managed to stay in power throughout the civil war that has engulfed his country for more than a decade. But he again finds himself in a precarious position. We weigh the chances of his political survival. And in Lebanon, residents are watching as Syrian rebels get closer and closer to their border. There is concern that the fighting will spill over, threatening a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and perhaps becoming a regional war.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)