Bitcoin All-Time High: Is It Silly Season? w/ Taran Sabharwal
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Kind of drives the decision making there. Like what what are the aspects that you are looking at that that make you say this is.

this is gonna n number one, you need to kill all of your brain cells. You have, you have to become fully without IT like is just a game. And I think like selling like some people get come in, make a fifty person return and need sure you can do that.

You will lose because risk return is there's early and eighty percent chance that less ninety percent chance that queen goes. So expect the value is you should be only going and if you expect the whole beyond the connect. So one lesson i've learned is if you're skating IT is something going into the.

Jm, everybody, I think it's one of the best EMS one, one of the most jets of ms, this week. Obviously, we are all post election here. And I guess know regardless of the political side in terms of crypto, the outcome is univerSally positive.

Well, did pennsylvania G C R not come through for everybody, all steady lads viewers? You that follow pennsylvania G C R, I call that last week at the trump in and bit corn all time as before. Episode sixty eight. And here we are.

Yeah, you managed to flip flop a couple times kala who's going to win but your final prediction just before the end, that's when the the G C R ness matter is .

the most G C R ness. Uh.

yeah. So just an apparently like you've been getting some more praise on twitter later. Leave like people on twitter, you're starting to feel like a different pulse towards you yeah i'm .

getting a lot of I mean, just look at this tweet. This is i'm getting a ton of engagement so this had forty five likes uh, just call IT circling back to my steady lazed predictions, which is like very nice. Then when I took down meme coins on october twenty fifth, this got one hundred and five likes here just talking about our goat was just another rotation. And it's just nice to see when you get these things right. People like really love to bandwagon and you ever is a fair weather fan.

What a commenter right did go is like near all time house. You're a temporarily right for like three hours.

Just feel let IT that it's over right?

You can feel IT and I think like you know the forty five likes just and you remind me of the the peppe there you know the is a guy who says, this one's doing numbers. You got four lives in one bookmark.

Well, have you know on thirty years old with no baby? so.

Even even Better. So you know, I think one of the things everyone is talking a lot about its pollie market because the front man, the whole means three media in terms of calling the election. I think at some point IT was ninety seven percent before election, uh, battle swing states have been called.

Not bad. We have the the story of the french trader that has made like twenty twenty thirty million dollars of banning on trump. He made so much money and caused such a stir that paring the french of government is considering banning police. Mark, now, did you guys see this?

Yeah, me just classic move from the french. Uh, one person does well. And as an outstanding returns to the whole thing, heads of he banned and no fun for everybody. Got forbid, a french national as well.

There there is a honeys tweet as well, unlike the french wife oh of the trader um you know before the outcome the french wife uh says, like you know this is your stupid trump pet and then afterwards we have the a the communist bunny saying this is our common financial betting outcome now so hero, hero made overnight. Uh, good for him. I think in terms of his methodology, I think he tried to run his own tweet. So basically he he tried to ask people what their neighbor was gone to vote instead of what they were gona vote. What you, I think of this approach here was this clever will take this .

kind of once me of who was there is a mean coin trader that you've interviews several that runs his own google s to see what ads get the most engagement and then buys those means I guess this is somewhere to kin to that right?

Yeah ah it's alex good. For example, you sam altman was getting a lots of clicks so he knew to like long world coin stuff. I'm not sure if this is applicable or comparable but yeah like I don't think anyone they the majority of people don't want to admit that everything for trump, right?

So it's like if you ask someone know like that guys know maybe that's like a more accurate measure. But yep, prediction markets are much Better than polls. I mean hopefully power market continue to gain market reminder um it's pretty ty crazy though based stuff I mean .

personally um I did enter the day quite long position for a uh from Victory there were two major signs like anyone who knows trading knows ala already knew that he was gonna in. He was like, very obvious to us. I no doubt my mind.

There were two signals that kind of confirmed IT. One was a Kitty Perry. Currently you can bring up this tweet here that's out.

The kd Perry course is is undefeated. So we have the, you know, the pictures from last cycle here with S, B, F and the and coke. He appeared at the comic rally just before election.

So he was, I would say, seventy five percent and the last twenty five percent that just made me all in, you know, our boy at the C M. B. C I don't know you guys saw.

but dream cramer.

mr. James clamor, was saying the action is showing that people think, come all, know what I mean, those two come on toron like you must have gonna all in.

Saw that only wonderful and go, I know that matters.

Yeah ah let's .

ut's weekly intro .

tyrant because maybe um you know our viewers need to get the background here so I I know I I know you for a while. I know kind of chat you are but maybe give our listeners just a quick entry of you know your background.

what you doing so ah I want a company called sticks are we are O T C traders so most of the audience mean lot of the inference you trade. They're all venture back. So a lot of t members and lot of the VC they locked um and they usually motivated cellars when those coins at the market after the vesting courage.

So um we trade them before they get to market and we help early investors as well as team members get liquidity. And most of these old coins trade that pretty steep discounts to all the Prices. And I like crediting names.

yeah. I mean, these are two topics I think our listeners gona love because one is, you know, just the general dynamics of most of these coins. And the other one is the mon coin market, which I know you're plugged into and you actually are probably in the weeds on. So guys, let's let's get some the Price action. I mean, it's been very eventful.

A lot of swings, obviously mostly to the outside, will look at the current Prices right now because all time hires, I mean, recharging seventy six, which is three epic c east showing signs of life, uh twenty eight fifty right now, uh, so long as picking up and uh a lot of coins, I think that you know don't have unlocks going on right now. Um are are doing quite well even even cordaro your your coin. Justin.

my favorite of big coal to t what I wanted to get your felts on when I know you had some reference. Sit in some tweet here, like do you think what he lans doing with the department of government efficiency? If if you actually create that department, this is a big boom for dosh.

I think. So I mean, I was very clear on the downside. I think people start from in doge, which is why you know its performance post election is not been insane. IT was already n running really hot.

Um we saw IT go from twelve cents, like, you know, eighteen cents even before if trump had lost and elon kind of would not have the influence that he's gonna have, I think doge would just like just be dead 啊。 But now it's gonna have signs alive and I know taran, I mean, this kind of your territory, my feeling is like it's going to do well, but not crazy because it's a bit of the fully once, you know, shame on me. A say you love George orge number two here. H everybody think.

I think I mean, those you can if you talk to a Normal person about mean coins outside cyp to the only coin, they, all of them probably know his toes, right? So dose winning is good for all the other meets, because IT is a higher barrier. I don't know.

I mean, if if cup has got be around three to five years from now, I feel like meanwhile are going to be around. I think doge still remains the biggest one um but you are right when he said, okay, trump at loss downside would be pretty uh pretty big on the uh almost every single I mean, right there's um quite a few which uh you have to watch very closely. But hey, I mean those is when I think IT remains that when I don't think we see a detroit d at all, I guess is it's at a different level right uh, all time high.

Congrats to elon. In general, he he went all in um a lot of people saying he was going to be pretty f if the dams one I came right do a little a lot of problems. He went from that like the delta.

Forget the debt of like you bitcoin, just the debt of like elon's life between like losing and winning pretty massive. And now he's ah he's obviously very close to trump and um he'll be whispering this year certain things. So I know that's good, bad.

but it's good for elon. I mean a boring company. I heard they were hiring dogone develops. So oh interesting.

but there is .

great developer, I don't know.

So some some dew they wanted to hire IT was initially gonna about. This was last year as was still hiring. They wanted to implement like a payment system in tesler or dose and they wanted to be native settled on dose itself because this is a copy cat of .

of the kind interesting um but I mean, let's let's go little bit about the election trading. I was you know um I turned forty. I should not be doing this but I did pull ah you know whatever all matter in asia he was like an old there.

I don't even know what IT was. Um I gave a little bit of my predictions. If you scroll down we can see um maybe that the tweet that I had um the experience I have with these things is that liquidity generally flows first to the biggest coin because that's where the the sharp money can put a lot of money to work.

So if you know that trump is wing, what's the first thing you do if you have a lot of money, you know, if you have a thousand box, you you might put the highest buy a thing, buy a call option somewhere. But know if you trying to put nine, ten figures to work, you you're just gonna a bitcoin so the first move um that really showed what was happening was the bitcoin move, I think around very hard. And once that happened I think the the bitcoin move like twelve percent spread.

So I kind of predicted seven, four win, 7， five laws seem to be a quite close to what happened. And then my eat prediction was that eat actually is is a higher beta because trump, you know it's quite aligned with the theory um he's doing stuff on the chain clearly. Um and also just you know IT seems to be a bit of a beating down to catch up move.

So we did get the catch up move. I I thought about twenty eight hundred and we're nicely above that now so that went well. Current did you did you trade through or a were you were you just watching?

Uh, I actually followed through on your east thing, so sold my boys and I went to the best ebs on your peppi. Uh peppi, pull the good move. I we we were spot long dosh, to be honest.

If you look at the those moggie itself, I put on, you know the bottom out out this week at twenty one billion, and IT ran all the way to thirty one billion, know this going put put ten billion dollars in market cat in less than a seventy two others. So IT shows like downside was difficult. Real yeah people were going pretty hot in to .

dosh like permit. It's so fine because there and he know he sees all the O T C. Data and I think that makes them a little IT nyc.

And now he's just like he only trades means and I like that kind of the story of a cycle. It's like we all try so hard to like your analysis then we just reach conclusion that you know, like me, is moved the best. So what this trade means is that kind of a jury.

I think so. Um you know, start of the cycle. I was like everyone else treating old coins, you know, T A, injecting to and saving, they are run pretty hard.

But but then, you know, earlier this year, IT was so frothy. Esa, you know, he is a killing eza like twenty billion plus. And at the same time, we were trading O D C like a pretty deep eighty cluster percent discounts.

So if insiders were are willing to sell, you know, long, long duration positions, well, like eighty to nine percent off that this man means holding, you know, those positions, those holes in spot was there was no risk return there at all. So you are to trade whatever I said, you could get the biggest amount of agent. And that's when I really started training means. And IT was early this year. I was a bit late to the party.

You let's look the the value of doing secondary sales and know the work that you do because i've been quite voc. I don't like this like hugely negative sloping forward curve S I think you know, even though someone like me can make a lot of money because I understand this market structure and I know how to you know trade IT. Um it's not good overall.

It's not good for retail, is not good for the charts. They're always down. And you know when you have these insiders like you said, Harry, in my opinion, like it's great that you're letting people do risk.

And I get some of this like one looks out the way and give IT to buyers that are not willing to sort of take them off the market early and like you know manage their own risk, whether they're shooting purse are just holding IT because, you know they like the coin. Um that's totally fine. Just a new truly familiar with founders that you know teammates just there are fifty hundred acts on on some investment.

I mean, you Angel s as well. IT doesn't think it's a bad Price. IT just means like you just wanted to risk IT because I might be like a very meaningful amount of money for you to get this like fifty ex and maybe it's so worth more than what you selling IT for. But like it's sort of it's a win win from a risk reward perspective. Look.

buyers obviously one IT right on a day to day basis, we receive a lot more bids than we do ask. There's especially now six months ago, sellers were feeling too rich, right? They're all of that old coins were above temple and if you were launching a little to, you were defect or launching at temple, right talk where he can sing.

Arbitron, all of these are trading them. And you know, bias weren't really interested because they knew the supply of hang. They knew how many motivated said as that would be.

So the of bids were not that much now buys a smart right. And they realized that the sells need liquidity. You've got these like big concentrate positions that they could sell below, even like the the actual value of the coin just to get money out.

If the adventure phones, they are going to give money back to alpes and new funds, but to redeploy that cash back into venture so and t members that cost basis, right? You can have a guy with, like I don't know, hundred and in old, but he isn't got his mortgage paid off right? So used for as a cash on and pays mortgage exactly.

Have you seen any patterns that would indicate why one coin would recover from the massive john we've seen? Like why would start ware come out of this or so as tea come out of this? Like have you seen any pattern, some signals, these things might be working even though Price action has been very poor?

Um T A was a good one right recently. I mean, those a bunch of of D C tros like historic this year we probably trade like between one hundred and hundred fifty million of lop tia. And the thing is you just increasing cost spaces, so you just need a long enough creator of time to see which ones go to serve which ones.

But patterns is I I don't see stock are recovering to to its ties, but is he is recovering, right? And there's there's different and I think those party, one of the bigs windows, the cycle for insiders, right? There's still up like twenty five thirty x. So if you know as a stock ware, I mean, stock ware has no Cliff favorite every just not looking monthly and older hold is keep something right. Uh, if you know they had a one year Cliff, so they're still quite a bit of time .

until you like on in exactly like not a big fan of these lake games of trying to rotate in and out before the unlock happen. Like the city unlock is in six months and people's is like, oh, don't worry, it's not it's not for really long time because there are short of traders like you gene and like the good you gene. Um this like twitter.

He loves his light rotation where he can get in and out. Um but if for longer term holders, someone is going to be left holding the bag in the end. So um anyway, i'm a fan of like you know people having Price discovery in secondaries and the founders are try to block secondaries and and not allow the Price discovery to happen.

Um I think you know kind of setting up for poor charts will get into the night. And I guess just and like just just to get your polls before we move on to that topic, like you, if they show on signs of life, maybe we spring the ef BTC charged up in this moment. Are you esthetic?

I am a static, and I think saying signs of life is an understatement, possibly the understatement of the century and the understatement of steady as history. I mean, I twisted this and I genuinely believe this. If the bottom is not in now, I think it's probably fair to capitulated at this point.

I'm not I I very sort of shared. I'm holding from i'm holding you until we get to eight to ten k or zero. There's no in between for me.

But personally, I think this is as clear of a bottom for eat as as we could hope for. I think IT has to be in here. Eats done very well since the tram Victory, and I do think you've has .

autonation tail lant. Let's change the five day um instead of this like all time thing, sorry, five there is like you got a really zoom min to see like the .

the .

little look at our look at our just just we have have to zoom in. We can zoom out. We to zoom in .

the year now it's a proper candle. We didn't .

say that if trump ins, then bice's domes likely tops, right? So I mean, IT has to be in. He hit B, D, C, and you've been calling the bottom for the longest time.

I think what you guys, what people might be missing now is that all of the projects that are the most innovative project and also have faced the most regulatory scrutiny are built on a theory um and for me, I think that is the big sea change years that all of these projects that had regulatory trouble that we're on a theoria are now not going to have that as far as we can tell right now. And to me, that is usually bullish and that like I said, that has to be bullish.

And if this and not just you, just not just to you, but also to mrs. Jo, do our favorite from last week, fan favorite here, thirty two thousand usdt profit from a thereon when everyone mocked the thereof. Must trash I bought IT.

Don't call IT a thereon call IT god thereon and he says, yeah, look at the shirt. This, this, zoom in and we have a little, this is the chat vite share, you know, like muscle, pretty epic. SHE went back in and he wrote, IT up good for her.

A pretty good. Like thirteen thousand, only fifty eth. So she's resizing conservatively, but still doing well so shout out to our girl to do do even I even you dream who I just mentioned he yet a tweet here um he's he's coming back back on on the team uh, with you, Justin. Yeah I mean.

I don't I don't want to understand far listeners and I feel like you guys are in some ways like I actually think this is this is big, right? Mean, the point of mean coins was there is the cynics in this space where people are saying all of the good projects, you can hold the tokens because there's regulatory at certainty, we can drive value to the tokens. Teams can be working on this transparently in the us.

They have all these road box. All of that is effectively cleared. And we're still talking about means on the show. I mean, to me, that seems like we're sort of missing this key pivot point. If this isn't the pivot point in the inflection point for people to get back into what actually matters and get out of memes, which is honestly quite boring, then like what s what else are we're really hoping for, right?

So this is going to be you know one of main topic today. Um we'll start with this tweet from all coin cycle who has laid out what you're saying, Justin? And I think me and takes a reMarks not sure and we'll get terreno take as well but let's start with alcohol syco, so he says unpopular opinion, but the new administration will be bullish.

Ed for utility tokens and barish means IT will be easier to raise money and launch without complex legal funding structures. It'll be easier at creativity of tokens. S I think that part true. Um we'll ll see an increase in quality projects. Not sure about quality like projects appearing out of nowhere. But um he thinks he will be you know potentially I C O boom type of the opportunities and uh he says a credit investor laws will ease and let people kind of coming early for crowd funding. This is sort of little bit what you're saying just in like potentially this is the time for the real projects, not the mean process that you you so love um let's get a couple takes take you how about you?

What do you think? Yeah I I don't think he has to be one or the other. I think i'm coming to the conclusion that like just because trump one doesn't mean that every D Y coin is going to pump.

Like most D Y coins are unjustly untouchable, even restaurant. I think things like arv will continue to appreciate. I own a lot of arbi um but i'm also embracing like me coins like I actually think that both in coins and you know certain coins will do well.

But I don't believe that parish me coins. It's pretty clear that the new coins to have the best clear part market of fit, no one is going be buying five billion dollars TV coins because trump one because they think you can go to twenty billion. Maybe the past of resistance is like less, but I still think that no IT makes sense to have like a mix approach.

I think. So taking you really think this time is different with regards to me coins, you don't think this is just the nf t had cycle. We stop playing out in a Better vehicle.

I mean, yes, these are years to twenty are. Fungible token. So it's it's Better, right for trading purposes, but is that fundamentally different, right? I mean, it's it's the exact same idea just with a different vehicle. Like what why is this fg going to continue longer?

I mean, it's it's not really a bad because I mean, it's continue for a very long time. If you look at me, queen infra like check coin infra like deep print of money is actually in saying like photo omics under fifty million dex create icy a day. People just want this stuff, you know and like I persons, you want late going to do well, but that doesn't really matter where you are.

I want what matters, what the market wants. And the market wants means, yes, making a prediction that people going to stop is like puppy. Not correct. But I mean but yeah like I I think makes IT makes sense of hold memes and utility points like everything and go up .

right it's it's not a zero sum game. I don't think just in um what matters is match, right? What makes crp tos so so are remarkable to novel people is you put a bit of money and make a potentially make a lot money. It's just this is just a new way for them to feed their gaming connections.

I mean, definitely, although the mean coins are zero summer, right? I mean, we can at least to agree on that here. Now individual .

ones yeah terms of the uh the sector itself, IT will continue growing regardless of what is as long as crypto continues groing, the main construct will continue login, new winners and new users that will show because these are much risk asset than the utility coins. But now we've seen that the average holder of crop to understands what F T V means.

Three years ago, when step in was twenty five billion, no one new, right? No one knew what F, D, F D. means. And back then, people likely believed in tech.

You know, the pumped out of funds of last cycle or companies are calling this republic w and these launch pads, doing the Angel deals like five million F T. V. And so.

And people care about the tech. I don't know putting medical records on the block chain or I don't know some work to earn whether regardless of what IT is people. So tech ment number go up.

Now they realized all of these stocker is amazing tech, right? You know. But IT doesn't mean number go up because the team could screw of the token s soap badly that retail lost along money.

So the entrance I came last year, they've seen sixty, eighty percent road downs on coins like talk. So they don't don't want a bit anymore. They want to treat us gam a higher risk investment, which is what IT is for them.

I think ultimately, I agree with the terms said that is not one of the other these two things kind of our complimented tary and reminds me of this a this tweet that met wong from paradise had he has his children and horizon, he says equipment may look like a speculative because here from the outside, and the distracts from the deeper truth that there is a new financial system being hidden inside. I love this take.

This is like one of my all time period takes. And when I do mount, this is always what I see, that all the speculation is sort of like hilling activity and energy into the atoms and ultimately, like we are creating these like rails. And we're seeing that with purchase, obviously, from the stripe, we're seeing IT from world's coin, which I consider to be a very web two product using crypto as rails to achieve, you know like the incentives structures that they want to keep.

It's not a crypto product. IT just uses IT as that makes sense. We've talked about or so I think like the fact, speculation or pure means will continue. Uh, everything with well, I don't think it's one of the other I wanted get too excited, Justin.

because um so I I just want .

to be clear.

I I was not really I if I came across singers, one of the other that was me misspeaking what I really mean to says which is going to perform and where do you want to be long? And my thesis right now is that mean coins. Well, I do think they will do well in the sector.

Girl, when I do think it's possible those shit all time high at this cycle, I just don't think that's where you want to be allocated right now. I think we've seen so much growth in this sector over the last year. It's all ever once talked about.

It's all been a lot of mean coins. I think that has hit a krishna, and I think we have now a huge tAilin for the other side of the of the space, the other inside of this barbell. And so i'm not saying it's one of the other. I am simply saying where do you want to be .

allocated and what's going out for me? I understand from like the relative thing. So we have, uh, I mean, take you, maybe you can fill me and i'm makely missing a few, but we have, they know uni swap trying to do chain, try to monetize.

You think winter, you just put out a proposal to turn on a free switch. Light pumped quite a lot today. Um oh not not not sure.

But the reality is, uh, if you look at the actual revenue of some of these projects and you try to extrapolate towards the Price, so what are favorite guy put out a tweet. Good job, guys. Mary tokens are going to be valued up of their cash flows. Hope you're happy. idiots.

yeah. I mean, I I probably look at the fundamental more than like ababa lot of people in the industry and like unfortunately, most projects they just like make no money. So like things like lido IT doesn't really matter if jump I eve goes up and then like the cash look know IT IT gives people more opium.

That's that's only difference. IT gives people more opium. The ceiling goes higher. And just the new year, right? You know like oba like know these defi point like later was up forty percent yesterday but also good is pumping right like everything is pumping um so you know it's not one of the other I think and I know that what you think right um but there is a ceiling to all these coins because if there is a cash cash ful component, you know you can't really dream too big. Um if you're selective, if you if you pick the right coins, then the risk is to return as much Better for D Y coins or whatever. Um but people are still going to pump means you know it's just this is the reality of crypt a i've come to that IT depends us.

And if you if you're talking about like people wanna buy IT and long or if you talk about risk to and inventions, right risk could turn one of a year. I mean, of course, probably sina as a Better investment than all of these means Selina hate all time high market captures now. So this is part of I don't doubt that most means go to zero over time, but most ngos, most olds go to zero. The supply overhang is just not enough. Uh I can make an example of grass, right so grass we just open up coin market cap so they pumped and four x in the last I know week or something. Um the they claim the flow to be someone like twenty five percent, but in reality the flow is something like six percent right they've got staking was of fifteen percent which unlock over three or four years out of the ten percent airdrop, um two percent one claimed and out of the eight percent I think forty percent were um um was state so real actual circling market cap is something something like five, five, five, eight or six percent right ah which is only like one hundred and fifty million to two hundred million to market up point, but it's advertised in a three billion market capcom.

But what does that mean like from from a punchers perspective, it's another one of these were you can pump for now because it's not much just but you also have to get out quickly before before the flag gets open and you really have to monitor like when these coins are going to come on, mind, it's still a game for people that are very sophisticated, right?

That kind of leak track you have. You have to access these coins because is there three billion days of demand going into this, going to to feed the supply over time? No, not really.

I'll bet that there isn't. So to mart traders who are on the supplier vang, they just show with other one next leverage or whatever. Over three years i'll probably went right um I world coin IT was similar.

The spy of hang was too large, went on eighty percent, eighty, eighty five percent um when the unlock started so yeah short term, keep lump in one short IT. And then look at the only invest early investor three hundred years right now, right two days ago they were willing to cell for like foreign ity. Now that I yeah I always gone on three x, i'll take six hundred, right? So that the O, T, C, Price is only gone to fifty percent, but support Price is going to three. So ana.

so so one of the things that's been a cracking me up on twitter this week, our lovable, our favorite lovable adam cochon the the designer of tweet threads that are hundred and seven two tweet long um apparently he's been doing some streams and um there has been some epic ones but the one relevant uh here there's the there's this profile picture where he he looks very slim and this one says the perform after is the circulating supply launch verses after the first major unlocks see your point, terran like that the coin can look very different after after unlock .

start yeah proof actually .

question for you, Justin. I mean, you given that problem, are you longing any utility coins like I am?

Yes, um I posted a little bit about my thesis on twitter, but I think where you want to be exposed to is tokens that rely on government regulation and that being more favorable and tokens that would do well in that and that sort of where I think you want to be positioning right now, tokens that are projects that have like a clear in unique value proposition but have to have in the past struggle to get around regulation with creative creative like legal loops and what not in offshoring. I think those projects are appraised to do .

the most well is interesting, like the tokens s are in the billions already. So like how much upside is that can IT reasonable have, right? That's kind of help retail things.

So there's like an exploration date for all these because you can really invest in these. You know they're tradable but not investable. I mean that that mean points to um I think like IT.

doesn't we fix the high F T V issue? That's the problems I an T I other to from. One this week, a more recent one, that I think this is the year, he says the game theory for traditional assets is to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others agree, right? Like this is traditional thing we hear to warn buffet at sea, he says.

The game theory for monetary assets is to get to the coordination point first because what you're buying is not a fundamental cash flow that you want to get at a cheap amp like, you know, F, D, D Price. What you're buying is like the reflective nature of monetary assets. Monetary assets, of course, like we're mean talking about things like bitcoin.

You potentially a theory um um maybe some mean coins that you know start a snowball and become like elite mean coins. I was with you at ten time last weekend to buy and talk in some these like family office. Guys like these are like just getting into crypto.

They have no clue what you're doing and the guys like, yes, yes, I I got some meme coins. I just get the blue chip ones. I have a whip. There was like one more yet. So this guy like why why buying with it's because it's it's just like reflective nature just establish itself as like a multi billion coin. And now if you think that like there is twenty thirty coins of people have every day that they look at and they've managed to crack you know within like the the consciousness um that just like we're money flows because new people coming in IT just goes to that right?

My mind is a word why would light as a core and why would someone new come and bid any serum staking protocol first all he probably doesn't know what staking needs, right and then he's like, okay, the dog has a hat. He's totally gonna IT that because IT captures mindset. But the people bidding light, though they probably already hold with right, they probably already hold some mean exposure um and they are most ophite ticad traders that would say now rather than last cycle, you had actual like retail buying supply of d val in spot I remember Young .

right I mean I I would say like my my point is even less about how good the me is and like oh is a hat or whatever. Let let's move on from like the hat.

Um it's just the fact that like Price gets reflective for these assets that don't have like fundamental cash flow is the the monetary premium is is all the premium, right? So for these assets like just being a certain size in a certain distribution, you've kind of you wonder, right, to just get the inflows just by default. And I think there are some cobalts that try to artificially create.

I will mention like special coins. But obviously, if you have hundred million dollars, you're willing to by force create an asset that's worth two billion dollars just by buying the hell of IT. Um that unfortunately like seems to be like a hack or you can get like an inorganic you know uh attention that are you are you actually seeing that.

jordy? You're seeing people put up tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to make an asset a thing yeah not like a single person .

but like within like a telegram group or something like that. Like of course you know some of these he turn nodding his head and kind of well .

known that some of these that happens so much that s so much and I don't even with nine figures but people would like one or two to ten milk um especially on salona have .

done so any of these yeah um so you know something to consider the good thing is you know for our coins in general, ized industry in general, you can generalize and just say that right now with etf being on the table and people being able to join in uh, the coordination point or at least for majors. Um is there and I think it's compelling. I think that's why the whole markets ripping.

And to be honest, like if few um didn't rip, I think all these odds would would not be moving much. The real money that is the community money is is east money because everybody has to have IT. Everybody has some bitcoin like at this point, there's like some huge whales and they're some die hearts. But when if if he was just bitcoin pumping, I don't think also would pump much or maybe like even at all.

Yeah, I agree. I think at eat, pumping creates the most among the wall effect boor like the the generate community like the essentially. So the fact that I eat this up, I mean, it's almost at twenty nine hundred, is really good. And hopefully I mean, I I think I will keep going up. But IT is community money.

I mean, that decoupling that will everyone was talking about twenty, twenty one where I mean, for the last six, seven, eighty, you could describe the goes up money flows s to eat. That's already a couple because because because I performed east to see that.

which is great thing. Yeah, but maybe the cycle is eat goes up. And then finally, like odds show, are signs of life. Now maybe people skip bacon because, you know, the d genes do not own bitcoin.

I don't know who bitcoin of big people, right? If you are going to have like one hundred to five hundred million hundred and then buy a bitcoin make sense yeah .

and those people like if they make an extra twenty percent on their money, like Michael sealer makes an extra million dollars, it's not like it's spread anywhere else you know he he just a maybe buy some more like wooden ships for his background, but you know maybe those guys that nc chips will do well and not not anybody else. So just a rap up the eating.

And I am optimistic that will get a bit of coordination, kind of a momentum going not just because of a Kitty purry thing, but also a we are negotiating, you know, with fatality right now italic. If if you're out there, probably you're not. But if you harder, we're trying to get meti on in.

And IT is the one last question I want to ask you guys was, um you know I try not to think too much about the four year cycle process and I think IT, you know it's played out, but it's hard to imagine IT continuing to play out in perpetually unity. But you just struck me as interesting that everything this cycle has played out exit at four years ago where BTC does really well. And then at the time back then, we had defied tokens doing really well and eat stalling in everyone saying just don't defy and bitcoin and now everyone saying things like just don't sol slash means and bitcoin and IT just strikes me as very reminiscent of what happened four years ago. And i'm not one of these people that thinks everything happens in the same four year time mine and cypher but and also would surprise me if that's what's .

yeah it's it's interesting because I think december twenty twenty, everyone said author r dead bacon domain, seven percent five coins without ninety eat was down fifty percent of all time mies and then I think january thirty or something, eight hundred thirty percent something as a whole I was like this belief, uh, so I can never see something like that happen.

Of course I want that to happen as a or not, but maybe it's similar, right? Everyone thinks alter that. He is that. And then we just start ripping. And then everyone has a chase.

But after this like so many times or last six months and ah because I perform, it's just been such a terrible going to bid like everyone hold you through, right? Like everyone who is who was iron and take anyone hold these and you know I still hold these, I situated some yesterday, but ada, everyone has been saying that all the year, and I just been doing pretty sheep.

I mean, let's talk about what you've been locating into to ask before we to part. I know that you take some sizable mein bets. What kind of drives the decision making there? Like what what are the aspects that you are looking at that and make you say this is, this is gna run.

Number one, you need to kill all of your brain cells. You have to, you have to become fully without IT like just it's just a game and I think like selling, like some people get come in, make up fifty person, make a fifty percent return and leave right now. Sure you can do that. You will lose because risk of ten wise, there's probably an eighty percent chance uh that less ninety percent chance that cohn goes.

So expecting value is you should be only going and if you expect the hold beyond the connect, right um so one lesson of learned is if you're skating IT to something, get into the willet IT doesn't matter what the child looks like because in a day, even if it's a high market of coins still like I know fifty million hundred bit so the outside real um so goal was one of the only refreshing new coins of scene in a while I think the last one was with right um I mean we still wasn't as refreshing because bone could come before with but go you know at all the VS all all of the yeah I ve been talking about was A I X crept and the A I coins office did really well but go you got this new mean coin launched by someone and mark on reasons talking about IT right terminal of truth this is like some AI twitter on by A I and yeah I mean this was a fifty million market people like I S super x it's a fifty million should right you need like at ten in ten twenty million in real bytes interest to to five hundred years so the upside was cute. So skating into this, if you've got like, I don't know, I know, six to seven figure forty years. Is forty the best return you can expect? Encrypt right now, but at the risk is real and you have to treat disaze individual venture pets uh and also I mean like I sold my east to buy pepper, right is rotated into an eat beta in of you eat I think east apple phone pepper, two others so the pepper isn't really caught up .

damage after me.

You said that you know like bet on the winners, which makes sense. I'm curious though when um when you stopping interesting in something so good at almost at a billion. Now we've talked in the show how these means seem to putt out in the one to three billion dollars range that sort of where they top out and then they'd fade more in your lesson day of security for now at least like when is go no log or at the risk ward for you at a billion uh.

think it's the the revolt of five extra here. Risk is fifty percent down, right? Uh ratio still pretty attractive here. Uh, I mean lost cycle also shape go from one billion, so I don't know twelve thirteen billion or something like a week. No doge went from five billions, like eighty five billion in arra.

How long I was IT was like a very show page, right? So when something goes viral and if you really goes viral, IT can IT can be paralleled regardless of what Price because end of the day, what's what matters is mind set, right? You got you, you got real trade is even like not this this twitter account you put, I don't, I think, about thirty or thirteen million dollars and soul into IT on a desk, right? IT wasn't even on on exchange, right? He scaled into IT. And yeah, you got traders like those who are very profitable traders buying these.

You're thinking is you want to year looking at these things as they're gna hit escape velocity city when crypto o as well and they're going to actually do as well as what we've seen in the past. And your thesis isn't that this is like a hot ball of gypt to money that's getting moved around from me court to me. You are actually in for the that's a medium term probably.

Yeah, I think I think that's a good representation. And they like IT IT, comes down to risk of issues, each individual members parties, zero, some game. But the market as a whole is going to keep Green, like he said. So need to you need to dedicate your attention to IT. If you're trading anything right I trade the majors often but no i'm not not playing with a hundred milor like fifty milk um then I would probably trade majors just a rap up and go .

know you like you also been tracking this so um you you like I love your tweet when you're lake you know the charts going back off it's funny again it's so funny had and he has been changing the tweet so he's been adding images and those were kind of jane but they are getting a little bit more interesting maybe we can bring up but basically like the AI is now using an image generator as well. So it's giving us a bit more than the boring tweet. We're getting a bit boring, right? Like now we're getting a bit more juice.

yeah. Honestly, I don't really think people think that tweet themselves are hot funny anymore. It's only funny with the only pupil esty.

But I guess the idea is that no as A I take IT gets Better over time. It's going to start to pretty Better content. Um so know some agents are posting images there, making videos, they're making songs. What is my gosh dad is a self sucker like this doesn't only reasonable with anybody. I don't think maybe a few people um but it's got .

any less likes and just in tweet .

I know one hundred likes. It's amateur hour. I don't know. I just feel like I mean, i'm i'm a club bra. I'm A A curve club like I don't know fuck i'm doing but I just feel like it's kind of this idea I ve got feel I think Terry said this, but you just see IT IT resonated and you just like go in because the opposite is insane so is this you just have to embrace .

IT I think um you have to be died in man some of these means they don't sleep right? They've got chat open you I I go to dubai quite often that's that's mean coin city, right? You got these people like running mean coins as a different like Operation. You know one guy I knows he launch so many min, he's going a forty, thirty, thirty five per person team like for former team, content creation team, social media team. Uh, you have to be really doubt.

Yeah you know you have the people creating and then you have the people consuming. And um you know I would love to get to a bit of a fair launch situation Better than the current ones where you can created and like maybe get like a fix supply like a ten percent, but not like like ninety person or or not like the full thing. There's different people working on different launch stuff.

So maybe we will see something good come out. But guys, let's let's do post up the week. I think we have some strong ones given given all the activity going on just and you want to haven't seen you as a you want to you want to share us .

see a polling market. I've been following IT. I don't know if you guys have checked out the comments slave in Polly market, but IT gets heated out there for people that are like very passionate politics.

Common trump at some of these are are hilarious. So A P rich here post, i'm telling you, the Polly market comments are comedy. These two have a combined two hundred dollars in positions.

Punk monk s know about one hundred twenty dollars. I'm actually shocked at these Prices. If I had more U S D C M I while I would go all in unfair s SHE is likely to win pen michin with with concern.

That's all SHE needs in this guy with a hundred seventy three trump, which is hk. You know, a hundred dollars is of token CER. Borrow money.

You both fuck. I thought this was this little exchangeable salary. There is a ton of these in power market.

just gold if you guys want to dig them up. I mean, engagement, I think really like the only shot that falling market has to stay relevant because as we all know, like the four year election cycle is such a huge thing for prediction markets. It's like hundred times bigger than all the other stuff put.

The other. I think the fact they were getting some of this type of you know emotional engagement from clubs is a sign that maybe like they'll be some next stuff to bet on. And i'm hoping for party markets that these guys come back next week and their they're fighting about, you know will trump a point, elon, to treasury or something and start betting on that. And that's kind of like the bullish case.

This is actually interesting, important, jorge. Like I do think power market can like fuel or can kind of sort of fulfill the needs of what mean coin traders are doing. So I actually bet that the would win the super bowl before the season started, they had like a half a percent chance of winning. I put a thousand dollars on IT would have played up two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. And I do think these sort of like speculative, very like long tail outcomes are where Polly market can throw because you can get a lot of people you know seeing these one hundred x wins like you see with main coins.

I I don't know I know I I hard disagree um I think the first act amount of time you have the way to get some you know dopamine hit is just a killer right there like the meeting .

what trump are commonly saying, a speech, right? These things happen. Know these are like one day that there's only one day to those outcomes you are realized. I think we could see more of that is what i'm saying.

Yeah understand you don't like meme coins, but the the utility of me coins is the .

social ethnic if you show mean coins and your long bebear markets for these like random .

individuum not short me coins is not long.

Yeah, you know a long mean code. But if you think this like like, you know, immediate release of doping that doesn't exist, the money will go pay black track.

We are. We we should sponsor a Justin mean coin back that he owns but cannot at sell for like at least a month get him like financially incentivize with a bag on unlike gold or like one of these being coins. And in the back of his mind, I think it'll be like some like wheel turning and like we calibrating and he's going to have a completely different belief system around name coins when this is a fourth backboard. I me.

but he needs to spend .

IT with his own money if he get the back for free. Doesn't just need to buy a hundred dollars of go just by one hundred books of goat. And then something .

that moves the needle, though you got ta have a real stake in these things yeah, just that GUI. But I have over hundred dollars of goat.

I'm just just to put IT out yeah, when did you buy go?

When we first talked .

about on the show of .

interest to even think about IT, you know it's up for me to care, right? I'm like too cautious to put enough at stake on something .

like good will will get a meaningful bag of of a coin in and have just in.

Yes, you send me some tokens, i'll take him whatever you want me to share .

our so are taking the ever faster yeah so I I just thought this .

is one thing because I think you know there's been a lot of burn out from the eth D Y developer that just like just any developer in general. Um and there is like this tweet uh where you know peanut the squirl um no they killed peanut and the me going hit i've I do you know like what the markey happen is but we have we've found there in shambles a death squirl has six times our market cap. I just like this is a it's kind of like this like, oh my god, like what are we doing is like we're trying to build for this future. And then peanut, this grow hits like to our meal market, like whatever the fuck .

I I also think uh this comes like a lot of bc I know they actually do like classical video in the founders to see if they are addicted to really .

because yeah .

because like a lot of these founders, especially like I don't know, some edge case individual projects that you know didn't raise that march, but like you know not the billion dollar plus projects because expected value for these guys, they think that OK cap up at fifty and remind, but they're making like tens, like millions from means. So the project overall die die down so that you know when when this product is a series a, some of these these do not personal if the fund is are being destructed in training .

names instead. Yeah, i've been going to like these metal events like in person. And i've also noticed that so many founders and fund managers, you know the front is very professional, but with their personal book, there's just like a slinging mean lanes.

It's it's crazy like think about but I guess this is a attender where we are at. Maybe we go that utility or but or and what not, but I think it's we gone to farther. We're not coming back. The people i'm going back.

And so think that's like another distinct tive to build right is set version making their money and meme coins. It's not even that their tokens aren't worth much, but they're making money.

Another tokens? exactly. I think I think it's like lose lose like even if they don't make money and they have to make their thing work, they are probably just.

No gambling um i've had a few Angel tickets for the guy you know says like here here's my address, send me the money and then I I do like A D bank and I check the address there's just like a random fucking and new coins in there and this is like, you know the address supposed to be like the the treasury address. Those investments have never done well. Let me tell you him. Yeah I don't wait. It's probably lose lose to be distracted um let's let's go with another post a terrence, do you have one?

I do IT it's not really that funny one but uh kobe put out this a uh this tweet. Uh so arrogant founders h and botch token launches. Uh i've met so many arrogant founders recently um who get humbled after that to his launch and do terribly right, especially a lot of infocom where I don't like that. I've gone down eighty eighty percent and the arrogance just always like disappears because they see the network basic quanta than network evaporated by eight ninety percent in a year um and kobe is won he's like, you know these founders are raising and I want to two billion F T V, and they are pretty going to lunch five, eight. And you coming back to your point, just in these salts like unbiteable .

and because uh read, copy, treat for the audio listener so he says i've had several people get angry when I passed on later stage rounds, I ask why and they get angry again and I tell them Prices the issue they say what I raised from X Y Z two billion so yeah they are complete morons, are overpaid.

So what um you get these argan founders who basically like get validation from A V C investing and they they think that if you get a tear one A B C um it's sort of like is proof of their superiority, let's say. So I i've talked on my twitter about an incident wear. This happened quite recently to me, or speaking to a team that had raised from one of the tear of the seas.

And they just get so cocky. I mean, like even prelaunch like you said, they start to think that they've seen been chosen ones because X Y Z V C has has has done a big check. Um and like you said, tyran like the game on the streets, once you actually launch a talking very different the the scroll launch is kind of interesting, the area where you launched a one point eight billion and then just the market doesn't to buy IT. Um IT is a IT is humbling for a lot of these people .

and you go on seventy percent in like another three weeks and the main they first screw the early investors, right when you're invest in a company, you you get into a safe right, you are given a vesting period.

Other thing is this, the staff are not really worth more than that a toilet paper like some people call IT uh because the founders that can change vesting at any point they like because the duration of the trade is very important when judging Price. If you're not only, let's say, you get into something a market, IT could be a great trade. A few lot of six years, IT could end up not as good as you thought.

So a lot of these found that they change vesting period, like grow for example, initially, you know because my previous phone with the sea drive, he was like three months Cliff and twenty four months linear, right and then they go screw. There was one year Cliff and three year in year changed just after a launched of Violet, right? Um so I don't on top of that, yeah the really just doesn't want a bit IT because they had the opportunity to look in six month ago, but they kept trying to time the market and in the market doesn't work.

Yeah if if I can say one thing to just if you can pull up my screen like this is like even if like trump, I don't think these texts are going to pump right right? Like icon is this toes down? You know the is like a social pressure for just in your dancer to like the resign from the foundation. I just don't think that these points can I mean they they like to x or whatever, but it's not like people all are gna be more excited about I game because someone you know um I just like don't think it's that happen. I don't know people have thoughts on this but maybe it's like a sad pasta.

right? It's like I mean, I I don't think I can is a good example because for me, that is one of the few kind of a good tech like it's interesting they're doing some stuff that will potentially have use cases. Um I think like securing certain things like um C K proves another things might might end up.

And I think like long term, I wouldn't choose that as the example. I think like some of the road that lose the relevance might be Better. Example.

yes, we are making me sad. I think you guys might be right.

Yeah, right.

I ve just been so locked in on cash flow or like two years. And now i'm like, you know what? Like, maybe IT doesn't matter.

You gotta kill your brain cells, but you can't know brain cells, bro. I think a lot of the A, I companies, I don't make damage h cash right now, the ony with I P O, right, uh, because they raise. So as V, C, the B C need the next set somehow. I think a lot of the traditional accompanies will pretty launch coins like a secret goes like five to eight trillion in market, are a is gonna go mainstream, even more mainstream? So I think a lot of these rando A I companies with zero cash, low ta o some random alem .

turned out like a one hundred million dollar hotel. You know, some random AI companies, unions create tokens and say.

article is the best yeah. Blue chip AI companies are different category and different league.

different here. They will likely like a dob, an IPO room. But the smaller ones, they got to know where to go. There are so money, and they gotta do something.

yeah. And as A V, C, you don't know which one is going to be, which, I mean, shut out to my boy. S, B, F, in jail.

Listening to steady lads during his break between, you know, getting smothered by puff daddy over there. But like, you know, the investment in anthropic, like when they had when he did IT and we first saw the F, T X. holding. Like, what the hell is this guy like putting a billion dollars into, billion dollars into what is this anthropic thing? Well now IT turns out it's it's going to be the main rival to ChatGPT and you probably will be worth infinite money um you know brilliant investment, although too early for his time.

And anthropic created goat, so you know S B F created to go see gospel.

It's responsible for go sea.

Raise your Price sockets.

I would buy all your go .

to a three dollars.

And all right, i'm going to finish up a pasta. So, uh, no, this week the election commodity a caught having some fake conversation, probably why he lost the election is like this in authenticity. Um you know, if he was talking and her her phone got flashed and show that he was just using her camera APP making stuff up.

So what had A A nice pasta referencing this, which I appreciated? Here you go gort in a referenced twice today. So SHE this, oh my god, commodo just pretended to be a solo stator the crowd of voters, but he accidentally showed her phone and all of her evil in lido left my asp .

of it's pretty good. It's pretty good.

It's a good poster that was a good one. Um yeah, guys, I mean, listen overall in for a new ride. Obviously, the dynamics are shifting under us. I don't think the money is going to come in as quickly as the repricing is happening. We might get some temporary corrections, but in over the next over the next six months, the bombers will be will be coming in at least through the etf and uh and hopefully gonna be good for everybody. I I feel the optimism in the area again.

rumors compete, eat makes us happy all season, hopefully will see the yeah, been dreaming of an season for three years now.

I were dreaming about IT and the ti, come on, come on the show and make everyone's dreams come true. Ah, we will end IT here. Guys thinks things for joining talent, seeks things for hopping on, looking for a two more of you yeah I mean, follow turn on to IT everybody and at six co some bangor tweet so how how you recommend following and .

in bangkok and you see one of us there come and say hi.

we'd love to meet you want some more friends first say just. See you guys next week.

We have to put that part out.

not leave IT in.