Gigachad's $42B - $MSTR flips $COIN - Florida loves the corn
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A, that fans welcome back to swan signal live is the first episode quite a while, definite a few months. I started this show in march twenty, right before we launched the swan APP, which started out as just a basic D, C, A product, ran this show for a couple of years, had an amazing gas repair, two big quinn's together, which was, uh, unique format in the space at that time, and had some incredible discussions.

You can go back and listen to them at one signal. Podcast outcome is kind of fund sometimes to go back and listen to uh episodes and thinking from five years ago. And you can also find on our youtube channel, I then handed IT off to sam kahn, who is A A A good friend and a great analyst.

He ran the show for a couple of years, and it's SAT dormant for the last few months. So we decided to pick IT back up when we moved cafe bitcoin from audio only spaces over to video on monday. We did that.

We ve decided now to bring the song signal live brand back because we thought IT fit this format Better. Uh, so today we're focusing on macro back of a friday. On mondays we have a special guest and mico john harn I uh interview the guest.

On wednesday we do community and news chat. Uh, and then today we focus on macro and finance and i've got some awesome friends here to join us. And of course, my costs john har has going today. John.

what's up, guys? Hey, everyone, listen monday. You're heard me say this already. But really that's a pretty amazing story. You just vise when the reality is you just have a really good hair day and you .

just then added to beyond video. And so that's it's a forcing function for hygiene when you do when you're when your streaming like this. I have Stephen luka here. He's the head of swan private as a good man.

a man. Pleasure to be here and, uh, pleasure to see this right again. Signal man, I remember when I first first a IT wasn't one signal as summa jae in kind of chat thing, but I remember red.

I think I was like weak one or two that I was involved with. You guys with IT was me and brechy and american hoddle and the lap person doing this. And I was like, weak one, this random bitcoin chat .

at the be great I member that that was the swan as the one, I think, anyway. And I wasn't once something in lounge. That's what I was.

Yeah just fun hang out episodes we bring about a big winters on and and just shoot the shit was great. Also got A A doubles here is uh M D of a small one private as well. Um selling a selling in corn out there. How's a going as great beer?

Thanks pretty yeah uh excited in yeah long time a free swan learn to the time from different gas and uh really enjoying the the format of two different gas going back and force so I can think of someones that were very .

memorable so yeah happy well yeah I love that form as well and I was less work .

for me as a host going to shed up and ask good questions or yeah at the goal yes.

keep your question shorter like it's so easy to just kind of wrapper on and then you ask five questions at a time and just requires little discipline. They developed over time as as as i'm still you know not great that so it's hard to do keeping the questions concise and any you know season hosts like a Michelle machine comes to mine and she's really, really good at that anyway, guys, we have a lot to talk about today.

As you I can see in the ticker down below, we're going to hit these topics are, of course, we've got to to start with gig, get shared doing gig. Gage had things, forty two, a billion dollars of bitch coin over the next three years, just lays out this monster plan. Uh, forty two is not only double the me iconic number of twenty one in this space, but it's also the answer to life, the universe and everything. And if you know you know uh so this is these are very strong and important mean numbers and you know I just think I will be less uh this strategy uh, because of that. So let's a diamond get some takes uh after through over .

to john first yeah for sure um if like you said, there's meme memes play into this that I saw one go around instead of twenty twenty vision. It's twenty one and a one vision. There's like different layers here.

And I think one thing all offer is we will get intersect the integrity of how many years it's over will give me some point of references. But the first point represses in terms of how bigger these numbers relative to what microsoft is done, relative to what E T. PS.

Have done. But the first thing I just want to mention is kind of how this has spread pretty foreign wide, and this is more anodos. But i'm in new york, uh, I play hockey may be once a week. And a lot of the guys in this group work again, traditional clients. So just last night, two of them brought up microstrip gy to me, one of them works and more distantly, more of them were set black rocks and they were bring you up there just like tack I Michael sailor, he won't stop.

He's crazy psychopath.

Yeah there just like go why these numbers are massive. And then um yes, that's on their RAID are whether not you know one of them are financial advisor, whether he's like really allocating his clients to because in etf might be another question, but it's on their radar. We have a clip of C M B C talking about IT than I think we're going to close. That's the first thing I just wanted to mention is that this is getting out there to trade .

fy audiences for sure. That's fascinating that they're talking about IT. And I mean, that makes sense because I mean, in the history like of E T M offerings that I mean this is huge.

This is like legitimate assistance even for the stock market. I know boeing terms some heads recently they did a big stock offering, but I was no were near forty two, uh, billions. So I mean, that really is I A kind of a record breaking offering, let alone that it's being used to buy bitcoin and let alone everything else is doing.

And I mean, you know, I think a way to look at this is I think the black rock by cot f has taken in around twenty billion this year. And so this is sailor, you know, basically microstrip gies saying, hey, we're gna buy double what black rock ended up purchasing over the next three years. And that's also four, basically four times the total amount of bitcoin microstrip gy has ever purchased.

Wow.

that's bonkers. It's absolutely insane. No one is coming up to stop this man. There's let them run free in the wild, wild west of corporate and institutional bitcoin of the he is taking over all the land. And so it's interesting .

because this this forty two billion in some ways IT, it's kind of a maybe you could see that is like a starting gun of like, you know, if you're on the fence at all about getting some big coin, adopting bitcoin in any sort of material way, it's like, well, do you want to do IT after that forty two billion has been deployed? Do you want to do IT before as well as its almost like a safety net because if you're buying, you canna have this. You know obviously something could go wrong, but like semi guaranteed buyer coming in and it's like, well, you know there's capital coming. So i'm interested part of IT is, you know kind of positioning IT to get other people off the off the starting line.

right? Yeah, that makes sense. I'm going to play this quick lip and they will come to you as there.

Uh, let's see if I can die IT up here. right? Here we go.

And that's the .

end of the other named .

in the space to watch is microstrip gy surging in the month, around forty five percent. And october, the company also announcing IT plans to raise for two billion dollars over the next three years to buy even more bitcoin. That is the basically the public equity play on exim.

Are that short and sweet? But the thing I liked most about that is the term bit maximum st is going mainstream. Uh i've not heard IT yet on C N B C.

Um you know it's probably been said before uh but I know this first time have heard IT and it's interesting just to see the bitcoin speak and the fact that he said the coin maximum st and did offer any explanation. No one asked with that. Um just very interesting. The the means are, you know x reading out there beyond, uh, a little insulted bitcoin twitter world into mainstream finance and I find that fascinating. I say what you take on this bold psychopath move to buy forty two billion dollars at the time over the next three years.

It's a hacked of A D C. And I think Stephen h had a legal point, right that's pretty wide to think about that that way as one company. But the other thing of like the big queen kind of max los m uh quote and seem you see it's similar to like fiat currency, like that was not something that people talked about.

And so it's funny again, you'll see these different for presentations around with the power of means. And so like matter crowder at A A biton week had a great presentation and a showed the power of bitch ans over time, the conversations are happening on twitter. Acts due then over time take a little bit time but do then make them into mainstreaming. And so it's a it's pretty wild to see .

um from microstrip .

perspective like I mean sailor has continue to say what he's going to do and back IT up by doing IT. There's a lot of people that will still say other good emerging called that something going to go wrong and this is all gonna love at his face and like that's great but they have been wrong and they continue to be wrong. And I just reminds me of a lot of folks that have been barely in the big coin. I ran into the first financial advisor this week, done all the research on bitcoin and still looks there has no values. So there are those people out there and they'll just continue to say that to you.

So a still you can do is cheer. All right. Last call on mi strategy mean then there's a lot that we could say. Obviously, we could pretty spend the whole hour talking about IT.

but I think they pull IT off, right? Like that's the real question. And I saw someone in the chat saying, so why hasn't big coin started running also shut out Jason on sale in the chat. Um I think the question I think the market is like, does he do I think these two things. One, the elections in four days, people are sideline because of that a little bit.

But it's also like, what can he pull IT off? Is he actually gonna buy forty two billion? Can he actually d at twenty one billion dollars of dead, twenty one billion dollars of equity? delusion? Yeah, at least not a share basis and I think he does that is directionally close. So maybe the lions of being thirty or thirty five, right? But directionally that's that's success.

Um they've been able to successfully do this with about ten billion for the life of the company and um the debt profile and some of these other things have improved and their capital team and their team is demonstrated that they've been able to do this solution in such a way where shareholders have more bitcoin per share, not less. And I think as long as they keep that up, people continue to be happy to buy the stock and I think they're able to succeed on that. And I think you know to the question of like when does bitcoin start to reflect that, I think a on the other side of the election. B, once the market has some sort assemblies of confidence that these flows are are really coming, they're actually coming.

And I would just add, you know, if someone saying, why haven't we seen a bigger rally so far? There are a lot of other things going on. Stephen mentioned the election on a friday.

Like today, we got a mount pay roll. So like employment data, IT was a really low number but then keep yet it's kind of noisy though because was like hurricane ted things. And if you look at what the U S.

Ten year did today, um right when the data got released at eight thirty to ten years fell from four thirty one. Like one is a pretty big move in like a matter of minutes for the ten year. But then over the next hour, IT has risen backup from like four twenty one to four thirty five.

So that to me just said the markets trying to digest a lot of different things at once here, the election, the employment picture, how's the fed gonna react to IT. So this is one of these things that looking back on IT, without a doubt, the microstrip gy announcement of we're going to try to buy forty two blade of the in is massively bullish ed for bitcoin um but often times IT doesn't play out as quickly as some of us might like. IT.

yeah for sure. Let's just do a quick description or explanation of hell microstrip gy pulling myself. What's the strategy here? Because I think a it's it's a little confusing to people who don't understand finance already. Um but I mean, to me, I guess what i've gathered is the the bottom line is the strategy is making exposure to bitcoin Price available to the debt markets, right? Um which doesn't really if this is right now as well as I know the only way for debt markets to get a large you know uh exposure to the biton Price, uh, is that of the right basic understanding? And does anyone want to go you know a layer .

or two deeper and it's not even just like exposure to the big coin Prices, like exposure to almost anything that returns almost to over ten percent a year like, uh, I think and I think you nail that, I think that is a generally correct way to look at IT. You know what what microstrip gy did that I think was very unique as they were able to offer these convertible bonds, these convertible convertible to equity in to to dead investors.

And so the thing to be aware of if these are these are investment firms, funds and organizations that by their Mandate, they can only buy debt or they have to buy so much percentage of the the fund or the product is in debt. And bonds like like Jones mention, I mean, they've been incredibly volatile. Bonds have sought.

I've gone down when equities have gone down, they have stopped providing meaningful diversification. A lot of these firms, like pensions and other other sorts of systems have obligations that are in excess of a what bonds are returning. And so I mean, this is a radical concept that they can earn returns like this that you know I mean have been over a hundred percent in certain cases compared to four five percent year.

And uh so I think the on the debt side will let someone else take the kind of equity side. But with the dead side, um basically, they're able to sell debt to these investors. And if the stocks over a certain amount is over a certain time period, they can convert the that equity and and make the equity return right?

right? Yeah, that's an importance new on there.

yeah. I think the investor Mandates that Stephen mentioned, our stage and there's just our who loves a capital, largely institutions that have investor Mandate and forget about owning spot corin, they might not even be able to own n etf. They're just limited to either equity or dead.

And in this once is three hundred trillion dollars, right? I think I saw that number, absolutely massive calls of capital that they're not onna change their investment and ates overnight and definitely not to be able to buy a spot the growing or a bitcoin etf that you know maybe one day but not not seen that these guys wanna get some sort of um exposure to bitcoin. This is find out the way to do IT.

Um and then just one of the comment that I think is interesting, I think there was fred rugger put together a thread saying what does IT take for a company to be able to pull off what microstrip gy is doing? Not not just buy bitcoin on your baLance sheet, any company can do that. I would encourage companies to do that. We have small businesses that literally use swan for that purpose, but sailors specifically acquiring bitcoin and kind of becoming this a tractor of traditional billions of dollars in traditional capital markets.

Investors um the investing in his stopped and his converts is unlikely that someone is is going to pull this off because you need things like a relatively decent market cap, a decent amount of a trade volume in your stack and you also need like your core business needs to deed acquiring bitcoin so like sailor has now gone public and said, yeah you know apple, for example, theyve tons of cash. They could buy a lot of no. Dt, but they're still going to be apple.

You're not going to buy apple convertible dead. And you know if the performance of IT is not going to be as linked to bitrate, whether microstrip gy, you know ninety eight percent of their performance is linked to the coin. So I think what sales doing here.

super unit in one addition there in in practice, if not in theory, you need to be found or controlled.

Yep, yep, that's why he's had such a huge head start. He's got it's a public one of the very few public companies uh, has you know where the founder has control over the company. So of course, see to go through the process of convincing the board and going through the sort of the corporates are, you know best practices process all of that.

Uh, I think he gave everybody a copy of bitcoin stand is something sent his board home to do home work like brought everybody back in his leg all right now. And I I think either you're on board or you know will figure out something else you but we're going to do this. And I think everybody um as long as I know stuck around and my god like I I think of another thing they did when they first came out to the market.

He offered to buy out anybody who is a share, any shareholder microstrip. Gy, uh, at a very fair prise. So hey, we're going to do this thing.

If you don't like that idea, i'll buy your stock back. Uh and so I thought that was really, really smart move there just the beginning. So he's done this thing right from the beginning and he was uniquely situated to be able to pull IT off.

So my god, props to him he's gona be in history books, uh, as a one of the greatest capitalists in american history. Are anything as a good time to to move on? What do we want to do next? Do you have uh, a preference, john? I think you did a we can do election stuff yeah.

given its the friday before the election. I feel like on IT actually on tls minds, IT seems to be affecting they coin in other assets, at least in some degree, are provided on.

There are less IT up with the clip here and the then all dive into some discussion. We have a good question in the chat as well at all. I'll bring into this topic.

This is that that's not a true I think we're going above one hundred thousand on dick point. I think the regulatory clarity you're talking about actually matters more for the so called old coins. For a theory on down, those are more exposed to regulate rest.

So I would expect an old coin rally even more so than a bit coin rally in the event of a triple in. But regardless, I think both are movie card. Why does not matter as much for bitcoin? yeah.

So bitcoin has more regulatory clarity than a thereon and other assets. The S C C, the C F C have already claim a commodity. It's in the clear.

There's r in E T P black crock. R T has a huge business in that. That's not is true for salona and apt s and other old.

But I suspect if we get a new ssc that will become clear, that will drive institutional adoption and will see that rising tide lift all of those both. What then you think is the number one catalyst for a big coin as you look ahead to some of twenty twenty five projections? Look, I think this is the best single time to invest in bitcoin.

From a risk adJusting perspective, all of the major existent al risks of bitcoin have been washed. Whether we have an T, F, we have institutions, they are coming into the space. The biggest catalyst is that move of institutional adoin.

We're seeing that acceleration. Saw eight hundred million dollars in eta flows yesterday alone. This is a title wave of institutional assets moving into the space.

There is a fix supply. And for my perspective, that means higher Price. Trump is Better for big coin or for the critter community than Harris IT seems fact, at least in the short term.

Maybe that is the case. But why are you confident, I guess, why you was concerned about the pull back that we could see if Harris elected OK? I think we could see a short term pull back.

But in that case, I think IT would be a major buying opportunity. That's right, specifically for bitcoin for all coins. I think there's more regulatory uncertainty.

What do we think of a matt hagans? H he's a bit wise asset manager. What do you think about his comments? I thought he was quite measured on the cypher to front, right. So um IT seems like you read the t leaves that know he's not so he is definitely not confident about about an egypto but I think he's you know talking about IT in a uh politically when you say politically correct way um at least for a big coiners ers uh and he's saying, look, those are gonna a risk asset and i'm i'm in on decline this is incredible.

Uh opportunity risk the the risk adJusting opportunity here um is is the best it's ever been and i've wave heard that like year after year is always the risk is adjusted opportunity to buy bitcoin. Um so yeah let's let's hear you guys think on uh the election stuff what happens uh in in your mind in uh trump uh Victory world versus a koala Victory world? I'll go to a Steven first on this.

Yes, absolutely. So I I I agree with most of what he said. I think that that is an accurate and like he said, measured take on the whole thing I think in a trump win, uh, which I would see is currently Price into a degree.

And you see this across all markets, right? It's not just that Polly. Market like prediction markets have trump at at a lee that lead compressed a little bit recently.

But um you know in the stock market like the trump trade has been on the stocks that do well under trump has gone up. Socks that do well under commonly have gone that right. So the market has Price.

The um I don't think it's fully Price then I think if you see a trump Victory, obviously there's some certainty there. And I I think you see bit coin just immediately start running. I an ideal I think there's a nejd reaction.

I think you in the year probably ninety above ninety and anything that kicks off basically immediately. Now what's more I think controversial is like, okay, so what happens in harare Victory um now I do agree with math. Um a Harris Victory is materially barris h for old coins because of the whole S C C regulatory paradigm.

Is a Harris Victory materially barish a bick coin? I don't really think so. I don't think it's like good. It's it's not like a catalyst, but I don't think it's too much of a drawback either. Now where you see a short term sell off, I think most likely.

And that's because even though the markets died IT back a little bit, I think it's still like a trump win. And so that gets sold off. So I think you see like a short term. I don't think you go below sixty.

You know what I mean? It's not it's not like this huge stack you probably see take a debt and then I think IT IT from wherever that low is IT IT rates into the end of the year and IT rally es through twenty twenty five. So maybe in a hersel tory you end the year in the seventies, right? You know in a trm Victory you end the year above ninety.

Um but I think it's it's largely OK. Um but I think IT does put a lot of pressure on old coins in in a haris factory. And one of those things I kick to other guys, we also remembered there's two types of Harris once there's Harris with a red senate and there's Harris with a blue senate.

If you get a blue sweep, I think there's a large sell off. I think that is the most unlikely scenario. I think the market is not expecting that at all. I think the chance of that is very but if you did have blue presidency, blue senate, blue house, that would be a major cell off, uh, however, Harris, with a red senate or or in either or uh with the house, I think is a fine scenario. I think any dep should be bought.

Yeah as there john jumping.

as there you go. I think you the thing that I considers you know, the idea of monitor expansion is unchanged in their both parties like they're going to spend an absolute on the money, which going back to like when all in and some coins P C talk about some earlier liquid expansion, right? Biton is so reactive to at it's not going to change.

And so i'm a little bit more for a test is one of you long return, it's not got a directional impact you bitcoin with what happens uh, longer term, I would agree. I think, uh, the move post trump is going to be the most bullish. Um yeah between end of the year, I I see that I think that range and I think we crack one hundred k uh, I think that such a big psychological big number that would have you know all norms is talking about the content hundred k.

How can we get that until twenty twenty five? But yeah I do I I do think also just from a uh, Young big in or look, even though I brought a cyp to businesses, it's going to be more friendly under trumps and you see a lot of moral, no adoption and other things happen are other administration other than herri, especially its blue and blue to Stephen's point? So we shall see but again, just remember both parties have to spend money.

Um they're going to have to create more liquidity in the thing that does best in that environment is can be the yeah, I all just say I don't think I have a materially different view than you guys. But just to add to that, but one thing aren't say said see you in the comments if you're still listening. But dh, yet multiple interesting comments here are one thing was that he said I think the ten years the best election poll, which I think was funny um I think what he means there generally is that as the ten years rising, trump as scene as right now as more inflationary and her Victory.

But I think they're both inflationary. And I think that kind of ties and what we're talking about here, which is ron paul is not on the ballot, in case anybody doesn't noticed that I there is not a fiscally conservative or heavier malaya bringing a chain sn flashing government spending. There is like .

this about about the department of government efficiency. Now we would say you later flash two billion and I listen to the Howard let me interview with palm um he he kind of died back a little bit two trillion in his leg one one and a half um but yeah they seem pretty good I going to do so. I mean this this is kind of my general take is.

I think I agree with with Stephen. And then I think there will be differences like go down a parallel world, right? So you have A A haris administration. I think we'll get some regulatory framework that you know embraces crypto o as a whole, uh, which I don't think you'll great.

Uh in general, obviously, there's a lot of out there and you know just script in general is big in a bad name um and but you know they're embraced IT. It'll be kind of like the early internet days. There was regulatory framework brought in.

There were concerns of the e commerce was going to like destroy main street. None of this I didn't happen um you know but we embraced technology. Now we have to know the magnificent what whatever the number is at this point.

Um biggest internet companies in the world here in the united states. So we are capitalist friendly in this country for the most part. And I think that will happen. I think the trump he's promising big things if there's a bitcoin like strategic bitcoin reserve that's actually created. He makes good on that promise, doesn't turn out the pandering that, that can be a huge boost in Price. So if you're kind of going down the parallel path and whenever this be going, treasury thing happens in the next few years, if IT does that to me, is you something that would push Price way more than anything the Harris administration would do to you know in terms of a bracing crypto uh, as a whole with a regulatory frame. Um so yeah, I think there's a potential in the truck world, I think for bitcoin to just accelerate by you know many years um in terms of late, I think I will kind to be a lot slower development if the hair ministration wins yeah you can the in anyway I I got to say though， uh I did appreciate the trump to eat out on on White paper day to the they thought that was pretty that .

was cool that .

those the good play back up a couple votes in hashtag three us day like good to see if that happens all right john are interrupted do not think .

everyone president and needs to send a bit going tweet on White paper day but I don't care who's elected this this is that this is an a official holiday and IT needs to be acknowledged.

yes. I mean, there's lot of things you know a lot of other things to consider when you making a decision you're going to vote for. But um in in terms of big coin, i've been impressed with with what trumps had to say a bit. Again, it's all pandering until something actually happens.

Yeah now I really I think you made good points there. I think I listened the lottery as well. There is you know the doge staying department of government efficiency that is funny and i'll give him that.

I think they could do something there. But in terms of like what would be really impact fully, a real pivot away from the current train is if we had either a baLanced ed budget or a surplus. And I don't see these like trims that they're doing.

They are like more efficient spending, cutting regulations like that. What I think they could potentially do and remember, any big change is going to have to go through congresses as well. It's not like they can just be like k.

Elon and how locked came up with this great plan. Go do IT. That's not how the government really works, but legless. Just remember what the biggest categories of spending for the U. S.

R, its social security, medical medicated interest on the debt and national defense, those are not easy things to cut and and and for the most part, like trumping republicans. There was once a time where republicans said we're not we might cut some of these because we're so interested in balancing the budget. That's not part of today's republican party platform anymore.

So I C, deficit spending would IT be a little bit different depending on which parties in power shore could. Different sectors maybe, but I see deficit spending still continuing. One thing i'll just say is that we do have to remember the president appoints a lot of people.

A trump talked about this on the rogan podcast. He said, the people you point directly, maybe it's somewhere around a hundred, but then they accompany tones of other people to their teams. So now are certain to getting to like the thousands. And if we don't really know, a coma hair thinks of bitcoin.

But if i'm just looking at what I know right now, who is more likely to appoint someone who then gone to appoint someone who is more like an Elizabeth warn character and probably won't pass favorable legislation on bacon or interpret the court case on favorable for a bitcoin, it's probably more likely comahue going to do that than trump at this point in time. So but then again, just bring you back to the point in the video. Something like that may affect crypt al markets more because IT may be more like, you know, securities regulation. So I generally agree with what matt poulin said, which is the longer term, even medium term transfer bitcoin relatively unaffected by increase in the White house next year.

Yeah I think I I agreed that again, depending on what happens. Yeah, I get student something .

at that there. I I am skeptical about the department of government efficiency thing in terms of what it's actually about. I actually and this is just my personal view based on the kind of like intellectual roots from silicon valley vans.

I think elan, now I think IT is less about balancing the budget. I think IT is less about a financial question of like how do we reduce the expenditure. I think gets more about budding permanent government bureaucracies.

I think IT is more they want to they want to completely take out the department of education. They want to completely wine down, like departments that are seen as doing just like bad. They see as bad.

right? Fixed over. And you look at twitter, you get a rid of eighty percent of the employees, right? You still APP still running. They're making improvements like um so yeah you know maybe like I you don't have to get rid of the the department of education for instance but you can cut IT by fifty, sixty, seventy percent and make IT Operate way more efficiently change the Mandate in such a right which you know IT might be a good idea to reset things right um to move for IT, I don't know um as far as whether not bitcoin needs washington to win, I definitely agree with that. A big one does not need washington does not need to be embraced by by america, right of the government to win, doesn't need IT.

IT will win anyway. what?

But what IT is, is amErica needs to embrace bitcoin. Order for amErica to win. IT needs bitcoin. It's the other way around. In the longer that we wait to embrace bitcoin like a strategic reserve, for instance, uh, you know the more we're gonna be exposed to being uh you know surpassed in the coming decades um from the the position where we are now, um brick is getting a lot stronger.

For instance, you could see smaller countries really improve their financial position in the world that they be able to project more power um and you bring in more high high quality workers and develop um industries that are more lucrative eeta right? You know how that all happens. So amErica a needs bitcoin and not the other way around.

absolutely. It's never been a you know and that's been a weird thing about this last year is bitcoin has never been so tied in to the political cycle. And I agree with three ty a hundred percent. It's inherent, not in a sense, but just because of the a .

extent .

to which the trump campaign is gone out of its way to engage with big coiners and be the extent to which the current S C C was such a hostile al force in in some ways obviously much more hostile crypto to than the bitcoin. Um but I think it's it's caused people to see like to pay a lot more attention and for the Price to respond a lot more to the presidential election. Everyone am just like I will be really happy to be on the other side of this because watching the bitch twice and everything related to that biggest relationship with like ever changing polling odds and expectations, not what I got into bit going to watch, we'll say that happy to be on the other side and I think is fundamentally like dick in will be fine regardless of which path we take.

Absolutely okay. Go go, go here.

And I agree that bitcoin doesn't need uh, governments and politicians to Grace and rearming. I still think we want we we don't want governments and politicians to be actively hostile to IT. Um I think that's import.

But optimistically, I think we've seen a lot of progress over the last few years. And the biton etf being launched and the world's largest city manager now being a purply ent of bitcoin is just a huge, huge development. So um there's many other reasons why I think we see we don't see governments become actively hostel IT.

What and you can even just look at you know the last handful of uh, conferences, you had a small that american country president come and talk about bitcoin cool bit. That's fun. That doesn't really matter.

Then you and french can IT nor of cage. You're talking about probe coin. And in this year, you have the leading canada of probably party coming and a lot of republican leadership coming in national and talking about big coin. So washington is coming in that the political folks are coming to bitcoin to to them like they're the power in.

And I some's earlier about why not that many people from a voting block own bitcoin about cyp to um I mean things i've seen as if all those folks were single issue voters, as I mentioned, if like five percent, that could push lots of these swing states if they were just single issue Better. So I think it's becoming known to them, which is why you see the pandering and see the comments in the morning to spend time. So IT is encouraging to see how that shift is happen.

I think IT only accelerates same way that steam was talking about, you know, they're to have to have ever present, can know, tweet about the my p day. Same thing, the trump wins. You'd have to go on.

Rogan, right? You going to go. rogan. You have to go this podcast for your clock. You have to do these things. And so it's setting the stage for .

all these changes moving forward that cats out of the bag like even doesn't when like podcasts are the new medium for these candidates. And I for one, love IT. I for one thing, it's great because IT presents i'd less scripted, organic way for people to meet and engage with these candidates. I mean, I think one of the best things, uh, we saw this campaign cycle was just the embrace of this podcast. And I think um regardless of who wins, that is the norm.

Go and for rework and in a similar way like that that the other thing is like there has been a vibe shift, like there has been a vibe shift the way that candidates in the whole political cycle and in this is the way I was saying before, is like at the end of the day, while there's still a little bit of a divide between the left and the right around the bitcoin question, a lot of people on the left in the house and senate have taken a robic queen position and maybe a lots the wrong word. But let's say, there is almost nobody before there, maybe now ten percent or fifteen percent of them support bitcoin. And that really changes the baLance of power.

Because usually these, these, these departments of government, these, these, these sending congress, they are narrow ly divided. So if you have ten percent of people on the left that will vote proc coin and like ninety percent of people on the right that changes the baLance of power tremendously and like that wide shift is upon us uh regardless of how this election presidential election turns out. Um you're just looking at something where being stanchly an anti bitcoin is a losing stance.

absolutely. okay. We've um on stock for that. We didn't hit this a little bit wednesday but didn't have a say and Stephen here. So let's take a look. There's our friend jail.

Let's bring in florida CFO Jimmy ponied. So you're actually that looking at this, the CBDC is a centralized a currency which is the antithesis toward bitcoin aims to be. So you think that the governance gna continue to print too much money. You think big corn is away for floridians to maintain purchasing out.

That's exactly where head is on this. We look at the the, the failed policies of washed. And I don't what the federal government, knowing we must stand, went to grocery store to go back back of the do at two fifteen and the afternoon. So we need to have some protections of place.

nice. And that clip was focused on obviously on the on C B D C A privacy um uh the the the rest the context there is that there is a paper and the speech delivered um that the four D C F O says we should buy some bitcoin for the ford a state treasury and that we should buy some for the for the state pension fund, which is pretty macy. This gets into the game theory.

The game theory applies not just to countries and international level in this country. Uh IT applies to uh state by state competition as well. So the first states that really embraced bitcoin will haven't advantage over other states. And there is a definitely competition between states in this country, which you know obviously was the intended way for this country to function. Uh, so what do you guys think about this push? IT feels like one of the more um robust kind of statements from a state of the states um about embracing big in the mention gript here uh although the tiki said cripp he is talking about bick only .

and I happen to you live uh from florida so have been along to ready in and for the maxi they get the best state the country a zero, zero federal tax, a state tax. Abundant sunshine and now strategic bitcoin reserve hopefully so love to see IT. And yeah I think IT was notable because IT was very much a state clearly being like we want to hold bick coin on our state baLance sheet for both sovereign ne purposes and also for protection.

And we haven't seen something like that. And I think this is more material. While we've seen laws passed other states like protecting the right to self custody and these other things which are positive, but ultimately like exist in a state of legal ambiguity, with if the central government says it's illegal, like it's complicated, right state just can be like, no, like, not, not, not, not, not exactly like he did not see that we canna it's not that there's no history of winning that but um it's more complicated. This is um I think more material because it's actually just the state and the C F O of the state actually saying we wanna buy this thing. We wanted hold this thing and we recommend if you're in fda that you do so.

Yeah I I was in say we have to defer to the florida maximus vand um but .

about hurricane kinds are downside when you guys OK by the way, things back to kind of .

get back to Normal. Good I think rebuilt rebuilt .

good Price with the consent, john but yes.

just just one step. I was in this guy Jimmy patronise letter, which is kind of astonishing um is is please separate to the beginning if far the words on sovereign IT would be the sixteen the largest economy globally. Um so these are you know it's one of the bigger states in the country is a massive economy. Um so to have someone uh being entitled D C and pro bitcoin in that big of the state is it's a big deal no no two ways about IT.

Awesome, a rates with gods. And so let's give IT back to microstrip gy for just a moment at least I do wanna share this becomin treasuries, that net website there are. So yeah, just wants you a narrow through here if I get IT to Carry.

Yeah, definitely. So that the main thing we wanted to highlight, which is on the ticker at the bottom of the the us. Are watching on video M S C R, of course, microstrip gy flips coin days in market count, and they kind of have around each other right now. But for four years, coin base was significantly higher market cat than migrants strategy.

And if you look at um what pretty highlighting here to this is um if he sorted by big coin held microchip, I will be number one and then coin base will be like number five or something like that and the numbers are a microstrip gy two hundred and fifty two thousand michelin and coin base has roughly nine thousand or exactly one thousand four hundred and eighty bitcoin and this is just pretty astonishing um if you look at like the head start that coin based on this, um they've been around its twenty twelve and they they have only accumulated in a less than ten thousand decline microstrip gy two hundred fifty two thousand bitcoin and now microstrip gy has a higher market cat than coin base. So I think it's just a pretty astonishing win for big up for vacine, quite Frankly. Just to say, look out, successful ly, you can be if you focus on this one thing and just holding the asset queen basis, trying to do all these different things with all these different assets and they could have held bitcoin in addition to doing all that, but they didn't. So pretty big miss by them. Um Stephen, I know you're up some thoughts to share about this one, but that's how I wanted to .

open IT up yeah I think it's just so absurd that, uh, coin base doesn't have a bigger bitcoin treasury or or even in east treasury, to be honest. Like do you want they are the a syrian company? Okay, fine.

They don't hold the syrian. They don't hold dicky. They don't own any of this. They own a small amount and undertake the math like in the year, they're been around since twenty twelve. In the year twenty thirteen, bitcoin open that thirteen dollars and IT closed that like a thousand dollars.

I mean, if they had put in ten million dollars at a Price of a hundred, they would only one hundred thousand big coin for for ten million dollars microstrip gies put in ten billion dollars um all they had to do even if they waited to us a Price of a thousand, they could have bought ten million the'd have a thousand bitcoin and and ten years is a lot for a company like that they put in one hundred million at a Price of a thousand that wouldn't have happened then but maybe they could have put in they could have put in twenty i'm just saying like and then you had twenty fourteen where the Price went down again for very small amounts of capital relative to what theyve spent. They got bought bitcoins somewhere along the way. They would have a serious stack. And the fact that they did a stock buyback, right, they bought back their own stock instead of buying, get going in this is after seeing microstrip gy this is after and it's just like who is driving the ship like this is an obvious win for them to just start stack sad or even god. I mean, I don't think they should buy a theory um but like at least there would be consistent there would be some sort of consistency but like buy IT hold IT on IT, they won't .

do IT. Meanwhile, this is what they've been working on at four point seven. What is this m guy make A I don't know way uh yeah so they're been working on this a theoria l two that they launched this week.

Uh, well, microstrip gies is running labs around them. Uh, it's just it's like twenty seventeen called and once sits website back, it's a it's kind of ridiculous. And then let's just take a look quick at a, at this crime scene, uh, yeah, we get that.

And just dead, dead. That's in B, T, C. terms. Just slowly dying.

One of my, one of a funny tweet that I saw, uh, a couple days ago was both bitcoin and a syria, or two thousand dollars away from the old time high yeah.

efforts. I think that was good, that fantastic good stuff. Um yeah so let's see what do we have left anything, john, that we've got a couple we got a couple of shirts. Think we got one more video um about spot bitcoin eat yet performance. We can talk about that .

I thought this goldin research fees knew about gold, this words that we heading on curve sixty seconds if you want right now well yeah um this is one of several research pieces that wall street firms have put out that pretty bullish on goal and number run. What I think is no birthday about this is I spent over a decade working at gold men.

And I got in one of the cool things of being and seed like that, as you get researched from everywhere I was in the asset, manage inside. So all the other suicide shops on wall street that cover you, there's just full boarding you with your research and then you get anyone write a research is with in you get to read IT as well. I get to see all of that for a long time.

It's is extremely rare for someone on wall street to be bullish on goal and the outline IT teeth. So here's why golden to do well IT IT just doesn't happen very much. So that's no word red off the bad.

Now you look at what they are highlighting here and basically ogre, this year, central banks have been resetting the relationship between bold Prices and interest rates. And I mean, this this looks like a charge dad lob growing, you know, has shared with the ball for for quite a wild. So typically, when real rates move higher, the gold Price moves at lower because deep can say i'm actually getting a real positive interest rate by going in the bonds, both as attractive on a relative basis.

What we're seeing here is that the past couple years, real interest strates have moved somewhat higher um but gold is continuing to move higher at significantly higher, right? Gold is at all time as you if he follow Peter chef, he's then tweet about IT that this is is the type of relationship like this changing, I think, shows that we're in a different investing regime, what everyone to call a different market regime, and we have them for a really long time, so that a this is no worthy against, no worry that P. R, just even talking about IT.

And then if you scroll down, brady, I think this is particularly nowhere the this part here. Yeah I thinks worth me reading this soup. Policymakers are also appear concerned about the dense sustainability of the U.

S, which has about thirty five trillion of borrowing, a mounting to to one hundred and twenty four percent of GDP. Many central banks have the bulk of their reserves in U. S.

Treasury bonds and policymakers may be increasingly concerned about their exposure to fiscal risks in the U. S. A final comment.

I'll just say they're not using the word bitcoin, right? They're not saying anything about bitcoin here like everything they're laying out is also very bullish or bitcoin. So that's what I take away from this.

And I think like on this, you talk about like we're in a different investing regime. And I think this is what has thrown people off since twenty twenty three, right? Like if you've paid any attention to the financial landscape since the twenty twenty two rate hikes, right?

Like everyone was calling for, like a massive recession, crash and burn hard landing stocks down fifty percent, like just financial armetta. None only did that never happen. Actually you got like record breaking performance for the S M P.

And you know most financial assets and the sam rule triggered and then no recession came. The yields ve was inverted and no recession came. You know bonds are going down when they are supposed to be going up.

Real rates are rising. But golds ring like it's a different it's a different regime and people need to get that. People need to understand that the total landscape has changed.

And I think the big variable behind that is just an incredible amount of monetary fiscal issuance like there's just been so much money. And I think the market does not believe that, that one's gonna stop. It's gna keep coming.

Both code was a like more time levels of spending that still was making its way through the economy. And uh, you know you've got a huge level of that. You've got high rates like you bring down the rates, you yeah you bring back a liquidity, you keep the rates high.

And now you've got this now you've got additional cut of money being issued from that high kind of come on. So it's a IT is a different paranoid. And you know the history of financial markets is that you go through these inflection points where the nimble and the people who can adjust to the new relationship are the ones that do very well. Where's the people that clan to the kind of older relationship um get punished in these periods?

N N hl just add to that since we're talking about golden sx and changes in regimes, there's a guy he's been there for a long time, names David cost and just on october twenty seconds. So like a week or two ago, he put out this piece where he's for craft an annualized nominal total return of three percent adds annualized of per year for the broad U. S.

Equity market for the S M. P. Five hundred over the next decade.

I'm just putting that out there to see someone who basically is kind of like he doesn't believe or in this newer doesn't believe. Nothing stops the train if you believe nothing stops the strain. You're not forecasting three percent equity that turns nominally per year.

So if you just wants to check that out to here opposing view, you know you can do that. I I think we're going to have at least three percent per year inflation measured by C P. I over the next decade. And I think equities are give something more than than three percent. So um but just wanted to throw that out there.

So I did a tweet on this actually don't know ll IT up exactly, but I got a list in the last ten years, every time one of these firms has forecasts something like that, where like the sp return is gonna be like under inflation for the next decades, can be like two percent, three percent, four percent. They've been doing in this since two thousand and fifteen. Vanguard has been in this camp since twenty seventeen, record breaking year.

Goldman said this since twenty nineteen, twenty, twenty, twenty one, one, twenty, twenty two, twenty three. We've had which returns to the S M. P of like twenty percent a year on all these smaller firms. J P mortal, they've all been saying this for at least six or seven years. The next year comes around the S M P S up twenty fucking percent like it's it's comical.

Um and I I just think the thing they get wrong that you hit on this, john, is like there is so much money coming into the system with no place to go and so IT goes into equities. And there the only reason they say this is they are looking at valuations. Almost all of these comments are derived from basically a single variable and it's just how, Richard, are U. S. Stocks evaluate? And then you know what happens the next year, they become more richly valued and then the next year, they become more Richard valued because there's nowhere else for money to go anyways.

We do have one more clip here you kind of such as on some stuff we already discussed um in a couple of things that we have anything we have a couple more minutes. I've got head in and play this. It's been making the rounds near ago.

But big coin etf have also seen a surge of inflows, adding over three point one billion dollars in just the last two weeks, bringing the total market cap of those funds to nearly seventy three billion dollars since they launched january. Ever seeking with analysts say that with one week to go until the general election here in the U. S, investors increasingly bullish ed, that no matter who wins, IT will be a net benefit for the industry.

Already, guys, we are seeing option stratus increase, but the regards of who takes the White house bitcoin is poised to hit that eighty k mark this year. O OK. What it's worth though, I am sure he wouldn't mind missing this.

But I saw bill Miller last week. I was very bullish. I don't forget you were retired, that you're never retired, as you know, in this game.

And a lot of people have come up to him and said, look, you told us ten years ago to buy is IT too late and he said to them, person cares. You think that it's like am buying amazon in two thousand fourteen? yes.

IT was up a lot from the IPO, but its dig run was still to come. I I tend to agree with that. I mean, mean, look on of the age work.

People believed in gold in the seventies and eighties and and IT is the goal for people forty and and preference also build up and and in me, I mean, I do think it's a heady and inflation. I think think there is a limited supply that's the whole gema, so don't scoff IT. So mac.

this is a um I love the the end there is like that the whole game make a kind of remind of me of the end of trump speed to the big in conference with bin IT was like slightly pure nizing you know it's like that's the given c um but yeah this is you know just another example here of bullish C N B C talk and it's just the norm and started happening in twenty two, twenty two, twenty one run um you know joe knin was really kind of starting to get IT and advocate for bitcoin throughout the bear market. Everything uh uh here you are and it's just gonna be a main stay for the next, you know what twelve the eighteen months on these are on this show. So it's it's pretty wide to see any comments on uh, the clip.

I'm not gonna lie like I did a double take which he said he was with bill Miller. He's he's retired. Yeah, I really thought there was a different world coming.

That would so win the their market, Steven only do that unlike bacon shows the in concert yes, IT was good.

I I like that.

Actually thought the first part was very interesting too about um people, option traders, uh you know calling for higher Prices regardless of the presidential outcome. And i'd like you know god checked that that's where I stand. There might be some reflexive trading, you know, very early on, but I think that's right.

I think of anything think there's so much money that's been sideline just because of the uncertainty of the election. Markets hate uncertainty. And if you're trader, you're an investor god, I mean, you're a financial institution and you're like we want to buy some bitcoin.

What should we wait till before after the election? It's like what just wait after. At least we can you know see if something dramatic happens. I think that's where so many people are out right now that they're just they would they need to see the result.

ali, guess, all time high before the election yesterday. Now I say no, just too much uncertainty. I think .

that will kind of hover around where IT is now. sure. The other you are say, so I can be right before the two right then I i'll have .

a newsletter if I .

do enough of these and i'm right. And then you just only released the good clips of me predicting the right way we got within a few hundred dollars.

So right it's A U E. Now who knows? But just because if you did not like I wouldn't made IT, then I only if you talk to me two weeks ago, like all time high before the election, I don't know. But um if you didn't break IT, then I don't think it's a break IT like over the weekend days before the election, they're going to they're going to last.

I'm a of fifty A K by election day. One more time guys .

is seeing everyone on Grace with this fifty eight k stuff. And i'm like, and shut and I i'm .

glad I do.

How when are you could had to be done with.

I mean, perfect you I mean, winning could be stack some more sites. Ten k down from here. I won't be.

Man, I don't know. I don't think it's going back there. I don't think he is. Last words, I never go on under fifty A K again.

Exactly, exactly. Are some things fellows? Uh, we will see you again next week. Now we do macron finance focus shows on friday, so we'll be back here at eleven A M pacific, two P M easter next friday.

Uh, with problem probably, Steven, maybe I we've got other guys in the sales team at swan who we want to rotate in here and get their takes. So will be with a couple of those guys, maybe will get some. So me outside this one monday, uh, john, I interview. Uh, special guest. So next monday is, uh, Larry apart, which should be a lot of fun.

So will prep some some good stuff to have fun with Larry, I think seizing ing on monday and then on wednesday, uh, we just do community and news chat and will you know find some big orders, russ libs and big pointers to join us and just talk about the news. Um so this is the new evolution of swan signal live A I host to a couple years and sam color hand for a couple years. We usually two guest at a time.

I was a lot of fun in and now here we are uh sort of bringing bringing them back in in another format um but i'm excited. I'm super stuff that took a couple years off of bitcoin content when from citizen bitcoin is wanting alive did that like five years took a couple years of i'm stoked to get back back here and is a great time to get started with the the bull market just about to kick off in earnest. So thank you fellas.

I'm gonna shill here for just a minute so i'll go full stream um or just real click check out the swan APP i'm gonna row up a cure code can just go to swan that com slash APP or you can search swan bickley and get my head above the thing you can search uh so one bitcoin, your APP store um we have rebuilt this thing, uh you know over the bear market. And IT is absolutely amazing for on boarding your family and friends IT just takes two or three minutes seriously, two or three minutes, no scanning your face and not taking photos of ideas. You can stand next to your family from family member and just onboard them and buy sets in like three minutes.

Uh, it's an amazing experience. Then they'll be um you know you know bitcoin education sort of system. We ve got A A bunch content to send them more email. We ve got the shows. We've got to walk to bitcoin course that's one that come lah welcome. You can check that out as well host by the great natly um so anyway would love to um you know be the the source they go to source uh for you know on boarding your your family and friends in this a ball market. So just search sone back in in the apple store where you go to swan a com such A D can that you are code I will see you on monday with little apart.