3 Takes On What Trump Means for AI
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Today, on the ideal brief, three takes on what trumps Victory means for artificial intelligence. The AI daily brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in A I to join the conversation, follow the discord, our shower notes. Hello, friends, welcome back to another weekend long read episode.

As you hate to imagine, the vast majority of commentary and opinion with regard to artificial intelligence in the last few days has been about the new context we find themselves in of Donald trump coming back to the White house once more. Now, we did a show earlier this week that was sort of an immediate first reaction, what that means for A I kind of episode that was a long read in the midst of the weak sort of thing. And in many ways, this is just a part two of that.

People have now had a few more days to consider. So these pieces are a little bit longer and a little bit more thought through. As usual, i'm going to turn IT over to A I to read this today.

I'm doing something a little bit different. I'm using voices from eleven labs library. Let me know if you like this approach, or if you prefer to have me do IT in my own voice. But regardless, the first piece that we're reading is called what Donald trumps win means for ai. It's by Harry booth in the in pi and provides a pretty good overview and starting point .

when Donald trump was last. President ChatGPT had not yet been launched now as he prepares to return to the White house after defeating vice president kala Harris in the twenty twenty four election. The artificial intelligence landscape looks quite different.

AI systems are advancing so rapidly that some leading executives of AI companies such as anthropic CEO, dario amo and elon musk, the tesla CEO in a prominent trump barker, believe AI may become smarter than humans by twenty twenty six. Others offer a more general time frame. In an essay published in september open ico, sam altman said IT is possible that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days, but also noted that IT may take longer.

Meanwhile, meta CEO mark zuker berg seize the arrival of these systems as more of a gradual process rather than a single moment. Either way, such advantages could have far reaching implications for national security economy and the global baLance of power. Trust zone pronouncements on A I have fluctuated between aw and apprehension in a june interview on logan polls and pulse of podcast, he described AI as a superpower and called its capabilities alarming.

And like many in washington, he views the technology through the lens of competition with china, which he sees as the primary threat in the race to build advanced AI. Yet even his closest allies are divided on how to govern the technology. Musk has long voiced concerns about ais existential risks, while jd vans, trumps ice president, see such warnings from industry as a ploy to usher regulations that would entrench the tech in combs.

These divisions among trumps confidence hint at the competing pressures that will shape A I policy during trump s second term section, undoing bindon's A I legacy. Trump's first major A I policy move will likely be to repeal president joe binders executive order on A I. The sweeping order signed in october twenty twenty three sought to address threats the technology could pose to civil rights, privacy and national security, while promoting innovation, competition and the use of A I for public services.

Trump promised to repeal the executive order on the campaign trail in december twenty twenty three, and this position was reaffirmed in the republican party platform july, which criticize the executive order for hindering innovation and imposing radical left towing ideas on the technology's development sections of the executive order, which focus on racial discrimination or inequality, are not as much trump styles, says dan hendry, ics executive and research director of the center for A I safety. While experts have criticized any rollback of biased protections, hendry ick says the trumpet administration may preserve other aspects of biden's approach. I think their stuff in the executive order that's very bipartisan.

And then there is some other stuff that's more specifically democrat flavored. Hendrix says he would not surprise me if a trump executive order on A I maintained or even expanded on some of the core national security provisions within the bite and executive order, building on what the department of homeland security has done for evaluating cybersecurity, biological and radiological risks associated with A I, says Samuel hamond, a senior economist at the foundation for american innovation, a technology focused think ink tank. The fate of the U.

S. A, I. Safety institute, an institution created last november by the bidden administration to lead the government's efforts on AI safety, also remains uncertain. In August, the AI esc signed agreements with OpenAI and anthropic to formally collaborate on A I safety research and on the testing and evaluation of new models. Almost certainly, the A I safety institute is viewed as an inhibitor innovation, which doesn't necessarily align with the rest of what appears to be trumps tech AI agenda, says keya mic bride, electra and A I government and policy at the oxford internet institute. But hammer says that while some fringe voices would move to shuttle the institute, most republicans are supportive of the we see IT as an extension of our leadership, and A I congress is already working on protecting the icy.

In october, a broad coalition of companies, universities and civil society groups, including OpenAI, lockheed Martin, carnegie mellon university and the nonprofit encode justice, signed a letter calling on key figures in congress to urgently establish a legislative basis for the efforts are underway in both the senate and the house of representatives, and both reportedly have pretty wide bipartisan support, says homes, a chattery U. S. Policy specialist at the nonprofit future of life institute section amErica first A.

I and the race against china trust. Previous comments suggest that maintaining the U. S. Has lead in A I development will be a key focus for his administration.

We have to be at the forefront, he said on the impulsive podcast in june. We have to take the lead over china. Trump also framed environmental concerns as potential obstacles, arguing they could hold us back in what he views as the race against china.

Trump AI policy could include rolling back regulations to accelerate infrastructure development, says dean ball, a research fellow at George Mason university. There's the data centers that are going to have to be built. The energy to power those data centers is going to be immense.

I think even bigger than that chip production, he says we're going to need a lot more chips. While trumps campaign has at times attacked the chips act, which provides incentives for chipmakers, leading some analysts to believe that he is unlikely to repeal the act, chip export restrictions are likely to remain a key lever in USA I policy. Building on measures he initiated during his first term, which were later expanded by biden, trump may well strength in controls that curb china's access to advanced semiconductors.

It's fair to say that the biden administration has been pretty tough on china, but i'm sure trump wants to be seen. As puffer mcbride says, IT is quite likely that trump s White house will double down on export controls in an effort to close gaps that have allowed china to access chips, says Scott singer, a visiting scholar in the technology and international affairs program at the carnegie and damnit for international peace. The overwhelming majority of people in both sides think that the export controls are important, he says.

The rise of open source A I presents new chAllenges. China has shown IT can leverage us systems, as demonstrated when chinese researchers reportedly adapted an earlier version of meta llama model for military applications. That's created a policy divide. You've got people in the top that are really in favor of open source, ball says.

And then you have people who are china hawks and really wanted, forbid open source of the frontier of A I my sense is that because a trump platform has so much conviction in the importance and value of open source, i'd be surprised to see a movement towards restriction. Singer says despite his tough talk, trumps deal making impulses could shape his policy towards china. I think people misunderstand trump as a china hawk.

He doesn't hate china, hammond says, describing trumps transactional view of international relations. In two thousand eighteen, trump lifted restrictions on chinese technology companies to e in exchange for a one point three billion dollars fine and increased oversight. Singer sees similar possibilities for a negotiations, particularly if trump s except concerns held by many experts about a is more extreme risks, such as the chance that humanity may lose control over future systems.

Section trumps coalition is divided over A I debates over how to govern. A I reveal deep divisions within trumps coalition of supporters. Leading figures, including vans, favor loser regulations of the technology.

Vans has dismissed A I risk as an industry ploy y to usher in new regulations that would make IT actually harder for new entrance to create the innovation that's going to power the next generation american growth. Silicon valley billionaire Peter teel, who served on trumps twenty sixteen transition team, recently cautioned against movements to regulate AI. Speaking at the canberra union in may, he said, any government with the authority to govern the technology would have a global totalitarian character. Mark Andrew, on the cofounder of prominent venture capital firm and recent horror z, gave two point five million dollars to approve trump super political action committee and an additional eight hundred forty four thousand six hundred dollars to trump s campaign and the republican party.

Yet a more safety focused perspective has found other supporters in trumps orbit hamond, who advised on the A I policy committee for project twenty twenty five, a proposed policy agenda LED by right wing thinktank the heritage foundation and not officially endorsed by the trump campaign, says that within the people advising that project, there was a very clear focus on artificial general intelligence and catastrophic risks from A I mosque who has emerged as a prominent trump campaign ally through both his donations and his promotion of trump on his platform. X formerly twitter, has long been concerned that A I could pose an existential threat to humanity. Recently, musk said he believes there is a ten percent to twenty percent chance that A I goes bad.

In August, muk posted on x supporting the now vetoed california AI safety bill that would have put guard rails on AI developers. Hendry ics, whose organization cosponsored the california bill and who serves a safety advisor at X A I musk AI company, says, if elan is making suggestions on AI stuff, then I expected to go well. However, there's a lot of basic appointments and groundwork to do, which makes IT a little harder to predict.

He says trump has acknowledge some of the national security risks of AI. In june, he said he feared deep fakes of A U. S. President threatening a nuclear strike could prompt another state to respond, Sparking a nuclear war.

He also gestured to the idea that an AI system could go ROE and over power humanity, but took care to distinguish this position from his personal view. However, for trump, competition with china appears to remain the primary concern, but these priorities aren't necessarily at odds, and AI safety regulation does not inherently entail ceding ground to china, hendry ick says. He notes that safeguards against malicious use require minimal investment from developers.

You have to hire one person to spend like a mother to on engineering. And then you get your jail breaking safeguards, he says. But with these competing voices shaping trumps A I agenda, the direction of trumps A I policy agenda remains uncertain in terms of which viewpoint president trump in his team side towards. I think that is an open question and that's just something will will have to see, says shaw. Now is a pivotal moment.

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Next up we have a piece by healthy piper called A I is powerful, dangerous and controversial. What will don trump do with IT? This piece ultimately makes an argument that the issues surrounding A I are too significant to evolve into partisanship. So once again, let's turn IT over two eleven labs and see if you find yourself a Green.

A I is powerful, dangerous and controversial. What will Donald trump do with IT in twenty twenty when joe biden won the White house? Generative A, I still looked like a pointless toy, not a world changing new technology.

The first major A I image generator, dally, wouldn't be released until january twenty, twenty one. And IT certainly wouldn't be putting any artist out of business as IT still had trouble generating basic images. The release of ChatGPT, which took A I mainstream overnight, was still more than two years away.

The A I based google search results that are like IT or not now unavoidable would have seemed unavoidable in the world of A I four years is a lifetime. That's one of the things that makes A I policy and regulation so difficult. The gears of policy tend to grind slowly, and every four to eight years they grind in reverse.

When a new administration comes to power with different priorities that works tolerably for, say, our food in drug regulation or other areas were change is slow and bipartisan consensus on policy more or less exists. But when regulating a technology that is basically too Young to go to kindergarten, policymakers face a tough chAllenge. And that's all the more case when we experience a sharp change in who those policymakers are, as the U.

S. will. After Donald trumps Victory in tuesday's presidential election this week, I reached out to people to ask, what will A I policy look like under a trumpet administration? Their guesses were all over the place.

But the overall picture is this. Unlike on so many other issues, washington has not yet fully polarized on the question of ai. Trump supporters include members of the acceleration is tech right LED by the venture capitalist mark in dressing, who are fiercely opposed to regulation of an exciting new industry.

But right by trump side is elon mask, who supported california's sb ten forty seven to regulate A I and has been worried for a long time that A I will bring about the end of the human race a position that is easy to dismiss this classic musk zaniness, but is actually quite mainstream. Trump's first administration was chaotic and featured the rise and fall of various chiefs of staff and top advisors. Very few of the people who were close to him at the start of his time in office were still there at the bitter end.

Where A I policy goes in his second term may depend on who has his year at crucial moments section where the new administration stands on A I in twenty twenty three, the biden administration issued an executive order on A I which, while generally modest, did mark an early government effort to take A I risk seriously. The trump campaign platform says the executive order hinders A I innovation and imposes radical left wing ideas on the development of this technology, and has promised to repeal IT. There will likely be a day one repeal of the biden executive order on A I.

Samuel hammond, a senior economist at the foundation for american innovation, told me though he added, what replaces IT is uncertain. The A, I, safety institute created under biden, hamon pointed out, has broad bay partisan support, though IT will be congress's responsibility to properly authorize and funded something they can and should do. This winner there are reportedly draft in trumps orbit of a proposed replacement executive order that will create a manhattan project for military A I and build industry LED agencies for model evaluation and security.

Past that, though, it's chAllenging to guess what will happen because the coalition that swept trump into office is in fact, sharply divided on A I. How trump approaches A I policy will offer a window into the tensions on the right and said, you have folks like mark andersson who want to slam down the gas peddle and folks like tucker carlson who worry technology is already moving too fast. J.

D. Vance is a pragmatist on these issues. Seeing A I in cyp to as an opportunity to break big text monopoly elan mask wants to accelerate technology in general while taking the existent al risks from A I seriously. They are all united against woke A I, but they're positive agenda on how to handle A I S real world risks is less clear.

Trump himself hasn't commented much on A I, but when he has, as he did in a logan poll interview earlier this year, he seemed familiar with both the accelerate for defense against china perspective and with expert fears of doom. We have to be at the forefront, he said. It's going to happen.

And if it's going to happen, we have to take the lead over china. As for whether A I will be developed that acts independently and seizes control, he said, you know, there are those people that say IT takes over the human race. It's really powerful stuff.

Ai, so let's see how IT all works out. In a sense, that is an incredibly absurd attitude to have about the literal possibility of the end of the human race. You don't get to see how an existential threat works out. But in another sense, trump is actually taking a fairly mainstream view here.

Many A I experts think that the possibility of A I taking over the human race is a realistic one, and that IT could happen in the next few decades, and also think that we don't know enough yet about the nature of that risk to make effective policy around IT. So implicity, a lot of people do have the policy. IT might kill us all.

Who knows? I guess we will see what happens. And trump, as he's so often proves to be, is unusual mostly for just coming out in saying IT section, we can't afford polarization.

Can we avoid IT? There has been a lot of back and forth over A I with republicans calling equity and biased concerns woke nonsense. But as hammed observed, there is also a fair bit of bipartisan consensus no one in congress wants to see the U.

S. Fall behind military or to struggle a promising new technology in its cradle. And no one wants extremely dangerous weapons developed with no oversight by random tech companies. Maddy's chief A I scientist, yan lecon, who is an outspoken trump critic, is also an outspoken critic of A E I safety worries mosque, supported california's A I regulation bill, which was bipartisan and videoed by a democratic governor. And of course, musk also enthusiastically backed trump for the presidency.

Right now, it's hard to put concerns about extremely powerful A I on the political spectrum, but that is actually a good thing, and IT would be catastrophic if that changes. With a fast developing technology, congress needs to be able to make policy flexibly and in power, in agency to Carry IT out. Partisanship makes that next to impossible more than any specific item on the agenda.

The best sign about a trump administration's AI policy will be if IT continues to be bipartisan and focused on the things that all americans, democratic or republican, agree on like that. We don't want to all die at the hands of super intelligent ai. And the worst sign would be if the complex policy questions that A I poses got rounded off to a general regulation is bad or the military is good view, which misses the specifics.

Hammond, for his part, was optimistic that the administration is taking A I appropriately seriously. They're thinking about the right object level issues, such as the national security implications of A G by being a few years away, he said. Whether that will get them to the right policies remains to be seen, but IT would have been highly uncertain in a Harris administration too.

Last piece today is by sharing golden and is called think Donald trump's AI policy plans are predictable. Prepare to be surprised.

Think, you know, trumps A I agenda. Get ready for a surprise. President elect donal trump has telegraphed big changes to the nation's all important A I strategy, many of which are expected to be implemented immediately after his inauguration in january.

But while some of trust plans are predictable as part of an effort to make the U. S. The world's leader in the fast emerging technology, others are still a mystery, experts told fortune.

Part of the reason is that A I policy is complex. And because A I is such a new technology, officials are still trying to figure IT out. Nobody has clearly laid out a perfect A I regulation strategy. Because Frankly, there are probably isn't when we're still so early in this innovation cycle, said iron levy, CEO of cloud storage company backs.

Another wildcard is the course of voices advising trump on technology and A I policy, including billionaire elon mask, who campaigned for trump and contributed over one hundred million dollars to approve trump political action committee who trap will ultimately choose to listen to among the conflicting agendas is unknown. Given that there are so many voices in that room and so many powerful men with egos, how is that going to work out, said Chloe audio, an A I policy consultation who works with A I companies and government. Still, trump has sent some very clear signals about what he'll do about ai.

The most obvious experts agree is that i'll make good on his promise to repeal president joe biden's year old executive order aimed at making A I safe and secure the order, set safety and privacy standards for A I and promotes its ethical use. But the twenty twenty four republican platform called the order dangerous, saying that IT hinders A I innovation and imposes radical left wing ideas on the development of this technology in general. Trump will likely pick up where his first administration left off in january twenty twenty, when IT issued guidance to federal agencies about ai, the memo called on the government to reduce barriers to A I development and adoption and avoid regulations that hamper innovation in growth, said adam theory, a senior fellow at the r street institute, a center right thinktank in washington, D.

C. Section A, I safety on the chopping black. One thing that may be on the chopping black is the A, I safety institute. The executive order directed the department of commerce to create the institute housed within the national institute standards and technology, and is intended to evaluate the safety of the most advanced artificial intelligence to national security, public safety and individual rights.

Adam asked the lead attorney and Baker mackenzies north amErica technology transactions group with a focus on A I said the safety institute is among the elements of bindon's executive order that is most likely to be killed, and since trump has said he would repeal the order, IT would likely be one of the first and easiest changes. However, there are many supporters inside and outside government who don't want the icy to vanish, said terror. A group of tech industry players and thinktank have been pushing congress to make the A C permanent before the end of the year and before trump takes office.

If icy survives, trump could point new leaders to, at that, in a twist, could be among those who fear AI is long term risk to humanity. Among those who have talked about the dangers is musk e, who is now in a position to influence trumps A I policies and his picks for the asis leadership. Trump could turn to musk and say, who do you want to bring in? Said zero.

And that's going to be a really interesting moment. Section open source A I friend or foe. Another big question is transposition on open source A I or A I tools and models available for anyone to use, modify and distribute.

Supporters of open source A I which includes models from meta mista w and mosques. X. A, I describe IT as a counterbaLance to A I from big tech companies like OpenAI, anthropic and google, which typically keep their AI models closed and proprietary.

But there is also a strong push to block unfriendly nations from getting access to advanced A I due to national security concerns by regulating A I exports and limiting cyber security improvements. For example, chinese researchers reportedly developed an A I model for military use by building on metz open source model lama that is going to be a high level cat fight all the way up. Theory said about the coming debate within the trumpet administration about how to regulate open source.

Ai audio pointed out that J. D. Vance, trump vice president elect, has previously supported open source A I development.

How do we reconcile that? I think IT will be a big question, like who will be the loudest ice in trumps year when IT comes to figuring out some of these very deeply substantive thorney issues, SHE said A I is also an indirect consideration. When IT comes to trump s plan to increase tariff s on products imported from countries like china.

IT was a core part of his campaign intended to encourage U. S. manufacturing.

But terabits could increase costs for hardware that is critical for A I, such as chips, many of which are manufactured abroad. They may also disrupt the supply chains of tech companies and put U. S.

Businesses at a competitive disadvantage to companies in asia and europe due to higher component costs, retaliatory tariff s, or foreign firms that can undercut on Price we're hearing from people across the board the possibly unintended impacts that might have on research and development in this space. Danielle benia, global head of law firm Baker macksey machine learning practice. You can also expect push back on so called woke A I, theo said, using a term for A I that is considered two left.

Trump could use an executive order to pressure tech companies to disclose or revise algorithms deemed politically biased or establish guidelines or oversight that review algorithms for bias, ensuring they do not favor one political viewpoint over another. Previously must have attacked OpenAI in google, claiming they are influenced by a woke mind virus. For example, in february, when google german I chatbot generated historically inaccurate images such as black noise and biking, most cited IT as evidence of googles A I promoting what he viewed as an excessively woke perspective conservatives since the time trump left office and his d platforming on x have been very fired up about what they regard as algorithmic bias or discrimination, tear said.

I've pushed back myself kind of aggressively against that, but the bottom line is they feel it's very real. And IT made for a strong shift by mega conservatives against so called woke tech issues. Any efforts by trump t to regulate or sensor what A I produces, however, could face legal chAllenges under the first amendment, which guarantees free speech, but could still have a chilling effect on A I research or adoption as businesses pull back on developing or deploying A I systems if they face unpredictable legal consequences based on perceived social or political bias.

Section division in silicon valley, much of what trump ultimately does will depend on who advises him on A I in addition to musk, there's on recent invest in podcast David sax and sqa capitals Shawn maguire. Jacob alberg, founder of software company palen teer, is another who may have trumps eer. Trumps tax supporters are willing to work closely with the government on national security issues to counter china, therefore said it's a big change from recent years when big tech largely blocked at a lying with washington.

This is a very different voice from silicon valley than in the past, theory said. The U. S. Political divide also risks playing out among korean government employees working on A I technology or policy issues. Some may decide to quit if they disagree with trump s.

Policies, while recruiting replacements may be made more difficult, said doctor romen sheltery, a member of the U. S. Department of homeland security, A, I, safety and security board, as well as the U.

S. Science envoy for A, I for the state department. There are thoughtful, hard working in kind people in government who are about to be in a difficult situation.

And I have every sympathy for the tough decisions they are going to have to make, SHE said. No matter what happens, boxes. Levy, for one, said he's more optimistic about trumps future AI policy than he would have been during trump. One point zero IT boils down to what he considers to be more knowledgeable people in his orbit. Now trump is surrounded by more tech centric folks like elon that I think are directionally aligned with, where I see a lot of the most important technology innovations going, whether that's A I evs or energy production.

Are I back to N L W. For just a very quick rap up? You've now heard a lot of different opinions, and so i'm not going to go too deep on what I think about this.

Instead, what i'm going to share is what i'm watching for specifically, three big things stand out to me. First, it's going to be important to watch to see what sort of influences on what topics elon tries to assert on the trump White house. How involved this going to be? Is he going to be as an informal advisor? Is there going to be something more formal?

If there is something more formal, how much is the long going to be influencing this set of discussions versus other things? And to the excited that he does have a stake in the AI conversation, how much is he going to focus on competitive ess versus risk assessments? Basically, what Ellen's role is in this administration is the first area that I think you can watch to start to get a sense of how A I policy might check out.

Second thing to watch is how much trump himself wants to be involved with the eye versus does he deputize j advance for this vans being a former V, C, is, of course, closer to silicon valley. And so that could also have an impact on how the shakes out. Lastly, the specific policy moment that I think we look too, first is around the promised peal of the bite and executive order.

What comes alongside that repeal does IT come with something else? Or is this just a removal? How that all shakes out is a third early area of policy to watch that I think could have a big impact on how A I is going to play out.

So that's what i'm kept in on. But of course, I could change at any moment for now though, that is where we will wrap this episode. Appreciate you listening, as always, till next time peace.