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cover of episode A new paradigm for US-China relations?

A new paradigm for US-China relations?

2025/1/7
logo of podcast The Bridge to China

The Bridge to China

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Jason Smith
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Mitch Presnick
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Mitch Presnick:本期节目旨在就中美关系进行客观、全面的讨论,避免任何一方的偏见,并关注双方民众的情感。尽管表面上证据相反,我认为中美关系正在走向一个前所未有的、可持续的平衡点。特朗普的关税政策并非简单地旨在损害中国,而是反映了美国对自身全球霸权地位的重新评估,以及对未来发展方向的探索。关税并非有效的策略,特朗普的策略可能是通过施压促使中国对美国进行投资,转移技术,从而促进美国及其盟友的制造业回流,即使这最终可能仍然依赖于中国的供应链。美国应客观评估自身和中国的能力,避免盲目乐观或悲观,并学习中国在某些领域的优势。中美关系的竞争不应局限于各自国内市场,而应着眼于全球互联的市场,并利用彼此的优势。中美关系需要摆脱零和博弈的思维,采用相对风险评估的方法,进行更细致的合作与竞争。美国对华政策中的一些制裁措施是无效甚至适得其反的,美国应该学习中国在某些领域的优势。美国需要与中国实现某种程度的互惠,保持自身优势,并学习中国在某些领域的成功经验。中美之间正在形成一种非自愿的共生关系,未来关系不会走向对抗。特朗普政府正在组建一个致力于与中国合作的团队,中美关系的未来发展将超越简单的竞争框架,并需要解决美国国内问题。特朗普对华态度一直比较务实,他希望通过各种手段(包括压力和合作)来改善中美关系,实现互惠。考虑到技术领域的双重用途和中国在技术上的领先地位,美国应该重新考虑对华技术出口政策,并认识到中美之间在技术领域的互补性。美国可能需要学习中国在垂直整合方面的经验,这与美国长期以来反垄断的政策有所不同。中国在保持关键政策稳定和在其他方面灵活应对方面做得更好,而美国则过于官僚化。中美关系经历了多个阶段,目前正处于一个需要建立新的合作模式的时期,特朗普有可能对中美关系产生深远的影响。特朗普善于把握时机,他有可能在中美关系中建立一个基于共同利益的新范式。中国并不希望人民币成为储备货币,但数字货币的发展将对未来货币格局产生影响。美国需要更多学生前往中国学习,以更好地了解中国,这需要改变美国对华的负面看法和旅行警告。 Jason Smith:我认为中国公司希望在美国建厂,但担心美国政府可能违反承诺。我询问美国对华贸易的目标,是否包括实现进出口平衡。我提到欧盟正在寻求从中国获得技术转让,这与十年前的情况形成了对比。我提到了中国国有企业在降低企业成本方面的优势,并讨论了美国过度私有化的现象。美国在华留学生人数大幅减少,这将使美国处于不利地位。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is Mitch Presnick's perspective on the US-China relationship and its future?

Mitch Presnick believes the US-China relationship is moving toward a sustainable and balanced state, despite current tensions. He emphasizes the need for reciprocity, acknowledging that the US must adapt to China's growing economic strength and leverage its own strengths in innovation and alliances. Presnick sees the relationship as a complex interplay of interests rather than a zero-sum game.

Why does Mitch Presnick think tariffs are a poor strategy for the US-China relationship?

Mitch Presnick argues that tariffs are ineffective and counterproductive, as they do little to address long-term economic challenges. He views them as a short-term tactic rather than a strategic solution. Instead, he suggests that reshoring manufacturing and fostering technology transfers through joint ventures could be more beneficial for the US.

What does Mitch Presnick suggest as a strategy for the US to regain its competitive edge?

Mitch Presnick suggests the US should focus on reshoring manufacturing, restoring technological competitiveness, and rebuilding supply chains. He advocates for leveraging China's strengths in these areas while fostering alliances with other countries. Presnick also emphasizes the importance of vertical integration and learning from China's fast iteration cycles.

How does Mitch Presnick view the role of Chinese companies setting up factories in the US?

Mitch Presnick sees Chinese companies setting up factories in the US as a potential win-win scenario. He believes it could help reshore manufacturing and create jobs in the US, similar to how US companies benefited from operating in China. However, he acknowledges concerns about stability and long-term commitments on both sides.

What does Mitch Presnick think about the US dollar's role as the global reserve currency?

Mitch Presnick believes the US dollar will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future, despite its declining share in international settlements. He warns against weaponizing the dollar for political purposes, as it undermines its stability and global trust. Presnick also notes that China does not currently seek to replace the dollar with the renminbi.

Why does Mitch Presnick think American students studying in China is important?

Mitch Presnick argues that American students studying in China is crucial for understanding the country on a deeper level. He believes it helps break the echo chamber of misinformation and provides a nuanced perspective on China's culture, economy, and politics. Presnick sees this as essential for fostering better bilateral relations and strategic decision-making.

What does Mitch Presnick think about the US-China relationship under Trump's potential second term?

Mitch Presnick believes Trump's second term could bring a new paradigm to the US-China relationship, focusing on transactional and interest-based cooperation. He sees Trump as pragmatic and willing to engage with China constructively, despite his tough rhetoric. Presnick hopes for a reset that moves away from acrimony and toward mutual benefit.

How does Mitch Presnick view China's approach to technology and innovation?

Mitch Presnick views China as highly advanced in technology and innovation, often surpassing the US in many areas. He highlights China's ability to integrate hardware and software development quickly, enabling fast iteration cycles. Presnick suggests the US should learn from China's strengths and focus on vertical integration to regain its competitive edge.

Shownotes Transcript

Mitch Presnick of Harvard's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies joins the show. We discuss the state of play between the US and China. And Mitch pitches a new international relations paradigm.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy) for more information.