Xi Jinping's visit to Morocco was primarily driven by the growing importance of Morocco in the automotive sector for both countries. Morocco's strategic location, skilled labor, established supply chains, and free trade agreements with the US and EU make it an attractive hub for Chinese automakers, particularly those looking to circumvent tariffs and access European markets. Fisheries and diplomatic relations regarding the Sahara region likely also played a role in the visit.
With potential restrictions on European fishing, Morocco is exploring opportunities with Chinese fishing fleets. This could help reduce Morocco's significant trade deficit with China, currently around $6.55 billion, by increasing exports and potentially leveraging diplomatic influence in the Sahara dispute.
Morocco aligns with China's shift from debt-based financing to foreign direct investment (FDI). China seeks stable investment environments with advanced economies, and Morocco offers political stability, skilled labor, established supply chains, and proximity to Europe. This makes it an ideal location for Chinese FDI, particularly in automotive manufacturing, alongside Egypt.
While fully balancing the trade deficit is unlikely in the short term, Morocco can explore increasing fish exports to China and potentially leveraging diplomatic relations. However, substantial increases in exports would be needed to offset the current deficit, and Morocco's imports are expected to remain high due to ongoing infrastructure projects.
Morocco faces potential risks from rising protectionism in the West, particularly in the U.S. and Germany. This could negatively impact Morocco's exports and its burgeoning green energy sector. However, Morocco's strategic location, established industries, and diplomatic efforts could also present opportunities for continued growth and partnerships.
Morocco's success highlights the importance of political stability, a robust industrial landscape, and strong infrastructure for attracting investment and moving up the value chain. While geography plays a role, Morocco's proactive development of its automotive ecosystem positioned it well to capitalize on the growing EV market, a lesson other countries can apply to various industries.
Even with potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act under the Trump administration, Morocco is likely to remain a key player in the lithium and battery metals supply chain. This is due to its existing free trade agreement with the EU, which provides continued access to the European market even with potential increased U.S. tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Chinese President Xi Jinping surprised a lot of people last month when he made an unannounced stopover in Morocco on his way home from the G20 summit in Brazil. The North African country doesn't often come to mind when considering China's key geopolitical partners in the MENA region... which is a mistake.
Morocco is now a major manufacturing hub for Chinese automakers whose vehicles and parts flow directly into the European market thanks, in part, to a free trade agreement. The Kingdom is also one of the few countries in the world to have a free trade pact with both the EU and the U.S., making it especially attractive for Chinese firms who may be looking to shift production out of China to avoid the anticipated tariffs that will be imposed by the incoming Trump administration.
François Conradie, lead political economist at Oxford Economics Africa, joins Eric and Géraud from Casablanca to discuss why the combination of Morocco's strategic location and abundant resources is luring more Chinese engagement in the country.
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