Five Most Confusing Teams with Howard Beck
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And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast on a beautiful autumn morning in the boring suburban East Coast where it's time, for the first time in way too long, to say with conviction and enthusiasm the three most anticipated words in niche basketball podcasting. That's right. What up, Beck? What up, Beck?

What up, Lo? I'm conflicted right now whether to simply respond with my normal response to you, whatever that is. I don't have normal. Or given the subject of today's podcast, I feel like I should just say I'm well.

I don't know if that's trademarked. If I'm allowed, that's an homage. That is an homage because I love Kevin Arnovitz and I love Kevin Arnovitz doing this pod with you. And I'm honored to be subbing in for him. Although I am admittedly a little intimidated by it because they don't come any smarter than Kevin. But this brings up

This brings up another point and another Kevin, because Kevin Clark, who I ran into at a concert, the Gaslight Anthem the other night, someone on Twitter in response to us said, did you hit Beck with a what up Beck? And Kevin Clark gave the response that a lot of people do, which is no, no, that's trademarked. That's for Zach. This is the question I get most often, Zach, more than anything else. Not what was it like covering Shaq and Kobe? Not what's it like getting to podcast with Zach Lowe? It's always just,

Can I say what up, Beck? Is that okay? And I said, this is not, I can't make that call. It's yours. Are you charging five cents per mention? Is it trademarked? Is it okay for other people to do it? Is it infringing on your territory? I don't know what to tell people. So you need to set the policy. I am.

I am an open source user. People can use what up Beck. I'm not Pat Riley trying to trademark three Pete. Didn't, didn't Ohio state try or successfully accomplish the trademarking of the word the, like before a university or some such nonsense last year, anyone can use it. So yes, it is time. It's fantastic.

Friday, September 30th. It's the last day of September. Fall is here. It's freaking cold. I had to wear a jacket walking my daughter to school today. It sucks. But the NBA season is almost upon us. There was a preseason game in Japan this morning between the Washington Wizards and the Golden State Warriors. Neither of whom

is on my list of the five most confusing teams in the NBA. That's right. It's time for the annual five most confusing teams podcast. My definition of confusing may be different from yours, Mr. Listener, Miss Listener. It is for me, not long-term. What are they up to? What are they doing? Why did they do this trade that made no sense? It's

Biggest variance between floor and ceiling. Biggest uncertainty in terms of where and how they will finish this coming season if they are enjoying good health. I rank my five most confusing teams. I asked Mr. Beck to rank his five most confusing teams with one caveat. Should we reveal the caveat, Mr. Beck? I'm a big fan of caveats and revealing of caveats, so yes.

The corollaries, maybe we'll call it the Ian Eagle corollary, which actually made up in my league pass rankings. The Ian Eagle corollary in my league pass rankings is the Nets, when they were unwatchable, can only get Ian Eagle bonus points for watchability like once every three years because it was unfair. Remember when they were just like slow and it was Joe Johnson and Brooke Lopez and they weren't even good. And it was Ian Eagle single handedly would boost their league pass score. So the Nets corollary for this podcast is no Nets.

I'm sick of talking about the Nets. We know the Nets are confusing. We know everyone has trust issues with two of their three superstars and that the third one that we all actually trust has missed a lot of games due to injury. We know that they're the on-paper champions of the NBA where no championships are actually decided. We know. We're not talking about the Nets.

I have no Nets thoughts to spill anymore. I'm sick of the Nets. Are you sick of the Nets, Mr. Beck? I was at their media day and it was enough. I'm not going – well, actually, I can't say I'm not going back. I'm going to go back for probably both of their preseason games next week because they're in my backyard and they're fun. Oh, I'm excited to attend Nets games because they're games. They're games. But talking about the drama of the Nets, the insanity of the Nets, the wackiness of the Nets, the confusingness, the confusion –

Of the Nets. Yeah, I think we just need to ban that for a while. The Nets are banned. So, Mr. Beck, I will let you open the floor. Is this tradition on this podcast? Who is your most confusing team for the 2022-23 NBA season? And I have my list. I let the guests lead. I'm curious always how much overlap we're going to have. If we get through two years and we haven't hit any of mine, I now retake control of the podcast. That's the rule. So who's your most confusing team?

um so i want to start with just uh two quick thoughts um actually a third the first of which is uh this is great because i am easily confused so me doing this podcast thematically makes a lot of sense i'm easily confused the other thing is that i as i was going through the standings which is what we do right you just start kind of gazing over it you think well who leaps out as confusing i think this is a premise i'm going to throw out for this edition of this confusion uh podcast that this is a less confusing season than most

I think there are some really clearly bad teams in each conference, and there's a lot of really good teams in both conferences. Now, confusion as to which tier they may be in as we create our tiers and who's a true contender and who's kind of a maybe and who's a play-in team. Okay, fine. But there's a lot of really solid teams. And I think maybe as I was trying to find the most confusing, I was having a hard time to some extent because I think it's a less confusing exercise than maybe it would be, um,

in some other years. I also have realized in doing this, and I know you, like I am a big X-Files fan,

I've realized that for me, this is kind of the Fox Mulder, I want to believe exercise. Remember the poster of the UFO behind him in his desk? Yeah, the coolest poster from the entire decade of the 90s. Do I remember that poster? Yeah, I think I remember it. Absolutely. It says, I want to believe. And that's what happens with these teams sometimes. And there are a couple in particular where it's like, I want to believe. It's preseason. We're all optimists. Everybody's going to be great. And then you realize, eh.

I have a confession to make. I love the X-Files. I have said before that I'm not sure... It was an uneven show. Everyone has their take about whether they like the standalone mystery episodes better than the larger conspiracy plot episodes. The Smoking Man. I was a Smoking Man episode guy. Love Smoking Man. And I have to admit...

And I've said there was almost nothing better in the history of television than a good Smoking Man episode. It was so exciting and just intense and well done and mysterious. And just it makes it gives me goosebumps. Having said all that.

I legitimately have no idea how the X-Files ended. I stopped paying attention after Mulder left. I don't even remember really what the conspiracy was or what was going on with the aliens and the shadowy government figures. I don't know. Did they ever solve it? Did they stop the conspiracy? Are we all safe? It's a shame because I love the show so much.

And I have no idea what happened. It's the only show like that in the history of TV for me. I loved it. And I just, I, and I lost it. I loved and lost. I bet somewhere out there, someone has done the rewatch podcast where they're going deep on it and analyzing it to death and could possibly even explain to you and I what did happen. Um,

I would bet that podcast is out there somewhere. I'm not aware of it, but I'm betting there is. There was a movie, Zach, a movie that picked up where the series left off. There were at least two and maybe three, and then there were the new episodes that came out. Right, yes, and then they brought a new series. Yeah, I can't remember any of it either, but it was awesome. The X-Files was great. Fox Morris was fantastic. And I know this.

They never should have made out. I think they did in the first movie or something. They never should have made out. That was strictly fan service. I would have quit the show. I'd like to think. I always think of myself that I'd be very principled in these situations. Like, I will walk out of my paycheck for this. But I like to think I would have quit the show the moment Chris Carter was like, you know what?

We got to have a make out. Okay. So who's your most confusing team? I'm done with the X-Files. All right. I'm coming out guns blazing on the most confusing. You ready for this? I know who it's going to be. I can already tell by your tone that I'm preparing my notes to list to this team. I'm too excited. The Los Angeles Lakers. Yep. I was right. Got my Lakers notes out. Damn it. I'm too predictable. So let me start with this. I'm not sure they're as bad as they appeared.

I do think we've all been too quick to write them off. And I cannot get past the fact that when I look at LeBron James's stats from last season,

The guy played like an MVP when he played. It was only 56 games, but 30 points a game on 590 effective field goal percentage and eight rebounds and six assists a game. And Anthony Davis, when he played, which was only 40 games, 23 and 10. I would make the case, and granted, it's an easier case to make five years ago, eight years ago, that a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis producing at those levels with just a slapdash cast around them

should at least be a middle of the pack playoff team. I understand LeBron's older. I understand Anthony Davis is always hurt. Um, but, uh, your media company, Zach Lowe, uh, has Anthony Davis still as the 20th ranked player in the NBA and LeBron at sixth.

Anthony Davis has just said he wants to be the number one option. So that's, that's cool. I think he's said that a couple of times. I feel like this is like at least the third consecutive season of we're running our offense through Anthony Davis. We're declaring it now. AD's excited. That's I don't really know for sure.

This time for sure. Look, I remain unsold on Russell Westbrook as he fit with this team. I remain unsold on the supporting cast that they did not do all that much to upgrade. I think Darvin Hamm is going to be a really good head coach for them. When I had Jeannie Buss on the podcast, my podcast a few weeks ago, and I made an off-the-cuff remark about you guys didn't really make any dramatic changes this summer, so I'm not sure what this means for you. And she immediately clapped back at me like, we hired Darvin Hamm.

And so that like she viewed that as like, that's their, their big pickup of the summer. I think there is the outline here of, of a team that should exceed the ESPN projected wind total of 42. I think that there's a best case scenario where they are ahead of and not behind Minnesota and New Orleans teams that, that again, the ESPN projections have them behind. I don't think they have enough shooting. I don't think they have enough wing defense.

But I still cannot get past, even in the year 2022, that a team with LeBron and Anthony Davis assuming health. And by the way, it's September 30th. Unless somebody's already hurt and on the shelf or have nagging injuries that have been dogging them for the last however many months, years, I'm going to assume health on September 30th. So I'm assuming LeBron and Anthony Davis are going to play, I don't know, 70 plus games. And maybe that's foolish. And then I'm going to make this

Not prediction. I'm going to say this is this. Here we go with Fox Mulder. I want to believe.

I want to believe that after everything they've all gone through and all the things that have been said and done and weird stuff at summer league and blah, blah, blah, that Russell Westbrook is coming back with a slightly different mindset than he had last season. And that maybe Darvin Ham will get through to him in a way that Frank Vogel didn't. I'm not convinced. I, I just think it's, it's within the realm of possibility. Howard, Howard, you're adorable. That's adorable. That's so cute. Uh, I'm just saying the late possible.

The Lakers, I didn't know that we are whatever projection system you're referring to has them at 42 and 40. They're over under their latest over under in Vegas is 45 and a half, one ahead of the Pelicans and three behind the Dallas, Minnesota, Memphis group at 48 and a half. The Lakers were also on my top five most confusing teams for the exact reason that you just said.

I just think a team with LeBron and Anthony Davis, and I said playing 120 combined. Let's say they get 60 each. Let's dial it back because you can assume health. You can assume health because of lack of nagging injuries, whatever. LeBron's almost 38, and three of his four seasons in Los Angeles have been disappointing and or injury-riddled or both. And Anthony Davis is Anthony Davis. He gets injured a lot. Give me 60 of each, and I think that 45-win floor –

Sounds right. Because those guys are that good. If they get relatively healthy seasons from those two and everything else just is okay, even some stuff goes wrong, some stuff goes right, it's just hard for me to see them being like a 500 team or worse because those guys are so good. I struggle with them...

with the ceiling I just don't know with the supporting cast that the the notion of this is with if you're picking them as a confusing team the implication is that they can go far one way or another off that projection yeah I could see them with bad health going far lower I just am not sure I can see them get into like 50 with this team let's go over the rotation

Currently, to my best knowledge, the starting five is projected to be a camp just started. Kendrick Nunn, Russell Westbrook, LeBron, AD, Damian Jones. It's okay. It's just okay. Like I've already said, I'm bringing Russell off the bench day one.

I would say if the Russ experiment is going badly in the starting five, they're going to give it five or ten games and then Pat Beverly is going to start. I would start Pat Beverly immediately and bring Russ off the bench. They don't appear to have the appetite for that. We shall see what Darvin Ham does if it goes badly. I think it's going to go badly. All of this happy talk and Russ is willing to do whatever it takes to win. I've heard it all before. I just expect it to not go well. We know that he's a bad fit with those two guys.

let alone a center along with them. I have no expectations for that. And I just look at the supporting cast without a trade, which we'll get to. It's just a little small. Like the wing guys are a little, none of them trend big, right?

The shooting is just okay. Lonnie Walker's low 30s. Troy Brown's mid to low 30s. Austin Reeves is low 30s. Kendrick Nunn's just okay. Juan Toscano Anderson's a non-shooter. We can go on and on. Pat Beverly is the one. Again, I think whoever starts their best lineup has Pat Beverly, LeBron, AD, question mark, question mark. And I don't think one of those question marks is Russ.

I just am not sure I see enough size or enough shooting to propel them up, up. So I guess my ceiling definition for this team is slightly higher than 45 and a half. I could see like 48 on the high end, which is enough to get you out of the play-in. And if you're in the playoffs with those two guys healthy, you've got a shot against anyone. I guess that's the ceiling. Like if you told me,

They beat Phoenix in the first round because LeBron and AD have a monster series. And whatever supporting cast players do their Rajon Rondo, KCP, hit every three from the bubble imitation in the first round, they pull an upset. I could see that. The floor is pretty low. The ceiling, I don't know how high it is. But that's my take on the Lakers overall.

absent a trade, I do think we're sort of underrating just how good they'll be if their two main guys are healthy. I just don't see enough in the supporting cast for me to put them that high in the West. Yeah, I mean, look, they're not a contender, right? I think that, you know, I was trying to kind of scratch out my own tiers here before we started. And, you know, Warriors, Clippers, Suns might be my top tier. And then the second tier is Nuggets and Grizzlies.

And something like that. Is there a scenario where the Lakers are better than any of those teams? Unless we're assuming injuries by those teams? I don't I don't think so. By the way, the Nuggets, they're over under dropped to forty nine and a half over the last week or so. The latest lines have them down to forty nine and a half. Just one win above the Mavericks and the Wolves.

I don't know why that would be other than people are pessimistic on Porter. I, were I allowed to do so, would wager real money without telling my wife because she would not be happy on the Nuggets to destroy that over. I don't know why they're – I think the Nuggets are in that top tier. Given the internal chaos –

I don't know that they'll win more games than Phoenix, but I would put their championship equity higher than the Suns for sure. Yeah, oh no, no. I would readily flip-flop those two. And I think there's a major asterisk next to the Suns right now, given not just...

the shadow that Sarver and the sale of the franchise has cast and everything that we've all just learned has cast. But, you know, DeAndre Ayton's day one training camp performance of, yeah, I haven't talked to my coach and the coach saying, no, I haven't talked to my star center. Do people's phones not work? I don't understand. So self-service in the desert is tough. So Christian Wood says, um,

This is the first I've heard of me coming off the bench. I'm like, dude, we all heard in July. I don't know where you were. DeAndre and Imani Williams can't get on the phone. And God knows the NBA's complaint hotline about major internal team issues and tampering has never worked because no one's ever called it. And the NBA is able to be like, hey, how were we supposed to know any of this was going on? Nobody called 1-800-BILLY.

bad stuff at the NBA office. I never want to hear the word hotline again from the league. Change the hotline, eliminate the hotline. Nobody is calling the hotline. How about NBA Slack? Could they just create some Slack channels and maybe Jason Kidd and Christian Wood can Slack each other? DeAndre Ayton and Monte Williams. We have more modes of communication, more different texting apps, all these different things than we've ever had in the history of the universe.

And somehow a coach and a player can't straighten out where they are with each other. I like to, I'm not going anymore in the hotline. The Lakers, let's talk about the trade stuff that's been going on endlessly with, can they get anything for Russ in their picks 2027, 2029?

Whatever it ends up being and as I've gone through before it's hard to protect those picks because of the seven-year rule You can't trade any pick that's more than seven years out from the present day So it's not like they can protect them indefinitely like four times lottery protected right now. Mr Beck as far as I know at 10:24 a.m. On Friday, September 30th, they got nothing. There's no trade happening there doesn't seem to be any trade discussions that are deep in the works and

um the bogdanovich ship sailed for now they could re-engage the jazz they could re-engage the spurs i've deemed any packages from those teams is insufficient for me to give up any major draft equity it doesn't bump up my odds enough the one i've said i would lose sleepover if i were a bus or mr palinka is trading both picks to the pacers for buddy hield and miles turner and i'm not going to belabor why that is they feel two obvious needs

I am of the opinion that Anthony Davis and Miles Turner can play together. Some people disagree. That's fine. It would be fun to see it on the court. My best intel right now is if the Lakers called Indiana and said both picks unprotected, the Pacers would do that deal, would probably do that deal.

I don't think the Lakers are there for whatever reason. They don't think, appear to think that Pacers package puts them really in the championship inner circle. And they're holding on to those picks unless they find a deal that they think gets them in the inner circle. And maybe they're right to do it. Maybe they're sitting here waiting for some team to fall apart in the middle of the season. And I would look at the Bulls. I bet the Lakers are looking at the Bulls and thinking, boy, if they just, if they crap the bed.

Could we trade Russ and those two picks for DeRozan and Vucevic?

And I can hear Bulls fans thinking, well, we'd never do that. That's way too much. Those are two of our core guys, even though Vooch is on an expiring and blah, blah, blah. I agree. I don't think the Bulls do that because that's going back to almost square one post-Butler trade for the Bulls. And I don't think they have an appetite for that until the Lonzo thing is resolved one way or another. So maybe this is just a Lakers roster, my friend. Maybe they're just rolling with it and saying if we have to punt,

effectively punt LeBron's age 38 season in terms of championship chances to roll over our cap space and sign somebody, maybe we'll do it. It's a fascinating dilemma, but they were on my list too. So we are one for one in overlap. Incredible, or maybe not so incredible. I will say that one of the most interesting things that Palenka said at their media day was that

This kind of implicit acknowledgement of the idea of a Westbrook trade without actually mentioning Westbrook in it when he says, look, we do have these two picks we can trade, but you can only do that once. We cannot screw this up. It's got to be the exact right deal, which is true. Also, you know, it kind of indicates just how much pressure you're under to fix this thing that you screwed up when you acquired Westbrook in the first place. They can't afford to mess that up. But to the question of whether you should do it in concept,

I don't care what you're giving up down the road. You do have LeBron at what is seemingly the twilight of his career, although it's LeBron. We never know when the end is going to come because he's not human. You owe it to him. You owe it to yourself. You owe it to the franchise. You owe it to history to give him the best chance. And if that means giving up unprotected picks down the road...

not just offload Westbrook, obviously, but to get something of use in return. If it's the Miles Turner, buddy healed deal, if it's, you know, DeMar DeRozan, if it's whatever, even if you're just increasing your chances by 5%, I think you have to do it. You don't know how many more years of LeBron you have, or certainly a LeBron that can still put up the kind of numbers he did last season and probably will again this season. Like what else are you doing? What's the point?

Like, what is the point? Really? He's one of the greatest players we've ever seen. In some people's view, the greatest player we've ever seen. What the hell are you doing if you're not giving him the best chance to at least make a deep playoff run? I don't even care if there's no assurances of making the finals. Right. But just get yourself back in the conversation legitimately. You're not there right now.

And easy for me to say, and I don't know what deals would or would not be on the table. I do think, and I always say this, this time of year, things change very, very quickly. Once we get three, four weeks into the season and teams start to realize we're not nearly as good as we thought we were, or Kate team, like the bulls, I think is a fascinating one to watch balls on the shelf.

They overshot last year as it was anyway. You know, the Bulls, if they can't replicate it and they start stumbling, maybe they do pivot to a kind of on-the-fly rebuild. Who knows? There's lots of names we could mention, right? Like if the Wizards are bad, and what does that mean for Bradley Beal, who, of course, can't be traded immediately and has a no-trade clause, blah, blah, blah. The Indiana one is the only one.

realistically that I've seen that I would think really hard about forking over both the picks and again what I what I said earlier about what Indiana do it with the Lakers do it whatever that's just the best reporting I have the best intel I have at this very moment it doesn't it like this intel is always kind of murky and it could change on a dime including as you said if the Lakers are disappointing early in the season enough Lakers okay I'm done with the Lakers

Mr. Beck, your second most confusing team of the season. Let's see if we go two for two. Okay, I'm going to stay in the Western Conference. And it's a team that we have kind of touched on in passing. Your Dallas Mavericks.

Two for two. Wow. Justify this because they were – in truth, I would have put the Pelicans on this list had I not just done a deep dive on the Pelicans three days ago on this very podcast so people can listen to that. So Dallas was kind of my fifth sub for the Pelicans because I'm not that confused about them.

But I'm more confused than you think I would be based on the fact that we know they have that dude running the show in Luka. So tell me why you're confused. So it's because of that dude, right? They have Luka. They have Luka. Luka is awesome. Luka is a top five player in the NBA and he improves every year.

they beat the sons best record of the NBA. They beat the sons. Uh, they made the conference finals. Like it's hard to dismiss a team or downgrade a team or somehow come into the next season underrating a team that did all of those things and has that guy. However, um,

they've basically been a solid middle of the pack team for the last few years, not a clear contender. And they weren't even a clear contender last year until suddenly they made the conference finals. And that's by the way, where Vegas has them now 48 and a half wins behind that. That would be fifth in the West.

Yeah. And by the way, so last four seasons, right? Go back four seasons, Luca's rookie year, 33 wins. They don't make the playoffs. The next year they jumped to 43 in a shortened season. It would be the equivalent of 47. The next year would be the equivalent in a full season of 48 and then 52. So 47, 48, 52, that's been their range. If you're a high forties, low fifties win team, you're maybe a fringe contender, but you're not a clear contender.

Does making the conference finals mean you've arrived and you're a contender? I mean, the Hawks did it in 2021 and look what happened to them. And the Blazers did it back in 2019 and look what happened to them. So it's not, we shouldn't overrate that we saw them playing against the Warriors in the conference finals. They still don't have a second star. And to the extent that Porzingis was kind of a pseudo second star, he's gone. And Jalen Brunson is gone and they lost him for nothing.

They still need more playmaking and maybe Spencer Dinwiddie provides some of that secondary playmaking and some scoring off the ball as well. Dinwiddie gets hurt a lot, has not reached the same heights he did before his ACL in Brooklyn. So who's gonna put up 20 plus points on this team consistently to support Luka?

Christian Wood. I'm intrigued by Christian Wood. A lot of people in this league are very down on Christian Wood and see him as kind of a guy who has some talent and puts up numbers, but is not a winning player. So it's not clear what Christian Wood adds up to for them. Also Christian Wood coming off the bench when he thought he was starting. So there's that. The other thing though is just...

Sometimes it's not about knocking the team that you're talking about, in this case, the Mavericks. It's about the fact that everybody else improved.

The Pelicans now have a healthy Zion and CJ McCollum to start the season and Brandon Ingram. They have a plausible big three, a really, really potent one. The Timberwolves got Rudy Gobert and the Lakers, as we just discussed, should be better. The Trailblazers are going to be better. I'm not saying the Trailblazers would be better than the Mavericks. I'm not saying any of these teams necessarily better than the Mavericks. I'm just saying night after night,

The West just got that much tougher. And sometimes it just takes everybody else improving around you to kind of expose the fact that maybe you weren't that great in the first place. So, I mean, that's my basic thing. And I also come back to this very obvious, reductive, but true thing about the NBA. You need a second star and they don't have one.

And it's very rare in this league, even a player of Lucas caliber that you can carry a team to contender status conference finals consistently. If you don't have anybody else to hang your hat on. To me, the reason they're on my list is twofold. Number one,

I have 100% confidence in their floor being really high as long as Luka is healthy and plays 70 games. He's just that good. They're 3 and D guys. You know, they're a system of a couple 3 and D guys, one ball handler, one big guy, depending on who that will be. Like, that's a fail safe. That works. They're going to win a lot of games. Yes.

My confusion is, can they vault up into that true inner echelon? Is that where their ceiling is? And how do they get there having lost Jalen Brunson and effectively kind of replaced him with Tim Hardaway Jr. coming back? Very different player, not as much of a ball handler, more of a shooter, secondary ball handler, obviously, not as crafty in the paint, but...

As Jalen Brunson is. And then Christian Wood for whom they traded their first round pick and some salary matching. And his fit to me is the other mystery because this team, I think people forget this because of how dynamite they looked in the playoffs offensively. They won the amount of games they did in the regular season because they had a top 10 defense all year.

And one of the mysteries for me is, can they replicate that again? Was that smoke and mirrors? Was it luck? Was it some combination of that? And how does Christian Wood fit with that?

So if you play Christian Wood with JaVale McGee, he's going to have to guard fours. Christian Wood's not that good guarding stretch fours. He doesn't have the attention, sort of the dialed-in attention to chase them around. He loses them on the perimeter. Okay, so that's one thing. If you play Christian Wood with Maxi Kliba, maybe you toggle the assignment so Kliba guards fours and Christian Wood guards fives. If you play Christian Wood as the only big man on the floor...

And it's the big mystery of the Mavs to me is how much they're going to lean into that and when, because they're going to be unguardable offensively with Christian Wood and four wings. Then he's got to defend fives. And I don't know if I get more nervous about him being my defensive center or my defensive power forward because he has not fared well at either spot. He is in a culture where...

effort on defense is non-negotiable where this team punched above its weight defensively last year because their rotations were always on point. Their schemes were on point. Their execution was on point. They did get a little bit lucky with opponents missing wide open threes at a super high rate, but they didn't allow a lot of wide open threes and they were fundamentally really rock solid defensively. Like I don't think their defense was seventh last year because of luck and smoke and mirrors. I think there were legit, uh,

good defensive team. I just don't know how Wood fits into that picture. He's going to help their offense. And so that's sort of the big mystery of them for me is how they deal with Brunson going out and Wood coming in because I think that

What player pairings work with Christian Wood and how do we use him is the biggest thing the Mavs need to sort out because the more they can play four shooters around Luka without compromising their defense, and that's what Kaliba at the five gave them last year.

The more they can go that way, the higher their ceiling goes. I do think there is going to be an experimentation period early in the season where they try to figure out that question and that part of their identity. Just by the way, the Lakers...

With Russ, I think the downside of starting Russ is they could waste the first 10 games of their season trying to fit a round peg into a square hole or a square peg into a round hole or whatever it is. So I actually think there is a healthy bit of mystery to the Mavs. Their depth is only so-so, like Josh Green, Frank Nilekina. They're interesting players. They could play an interesting role on this team as like extra good wing defense in various lineups.

Can't play them with another non-shooter like JaVale, so that's another dilemma. I do think there's a fair bit of mystery here, even though I'm quite sure this team's going to be really good. They're going to be really good, but again, when I'm scratching out tiers on the fly here, I don't think they're... They're not in the contender tier, and I'm not sure if they're in the second tier. I think they're somewhere in that third tier, and...

That's the confusion, right? They made the conference finals. They have Luka. They have a formula they've established that they know can win, which you just outlined. And I think they'll still do it at a high level. I just don't know that they can break through and have it run like they just did without some changes. I love the Kleba-Wood pairing in theory. Both can roll. Both can pop. And Christian Wood, I do think people fixate on the second ball handler thing for Dallas, right?

and the loss of Brunson, they are super optimistic that what Dinwiddie did in 23 regular season games and whatever playoff games was real. He shot it better. He looked like a good fit. We'll see. I think an underrated part of Woods' game is people think of him as sort of pick and pop, shoot lots of threes. He can get his own offense both facing up against bigger defenders and posting smaller defenders. He's a really good off-the-dribble player.

I think leaning into him as sixth man is a smart way to start the season in part because I want him on the floor when Luka is resting every second. And I think he can be a part of that second ball handler answer for them. Just depends on how much that, if at all, compromises Luka.

What was their driving force last year in the regular season, at least? And that was their defense. And I will just say, too, real quick, in defense of Christian Wood or back to my, you know, my sunny optimist, Fox Mulder, I want to believe mode in September is that

Christian Wood, for whatever knocks people around the league had on him as maybe empty numbers or whatever else, or maybe they think he's a little selfish or a little flaky or whatever, he's in a winning program now. And he's in a no-nonsense winning program with a no-nonsense head coach, Jason Kidd, and is on an established team where it's not all about him. And the change in context could be everything. And so this is a chance to see the best version of him. So we'll see.

Well, not only that, you know, he's not only has he played his entire career essentially with poo-poo teams playing for nothing. He's never played with anyone who can set him up for easy baskets, let alone maybe the best in the entire league at doing that. I said last week on NBA Today, I think he might be the favorite for sixth man of the year. He could score 20 points off the bench for this team. He could average 20 off the bench. That's how prolific he is offensively. I have no doubt about that fit.

This episode is brought to you by Experian. Are you paying for subscriptions you don't use but can't find the time or energy to cancel them? Experian could cancel unwanted subscriptions for you, saving you an average of $270 per year and plenty of time. Download the Experian app. Results will vary. Not all subscriptions are eligible. Savings are not guaranteed. Paid membership with connected payment account required. Okay, well, we're two for two, so I'm going to let you continue leading. That's the kind of host I am. Howard Beck, you come to my house. We got your favorite drinks on hand.

Even if there's some fruity White Claw stuff that I think is dumb, we'll have it on hand. Get your favorite food. Are you vegan? We'll get some vegan stuff. Are you gluten-free? My number of gluten-free friends is piling up. I don't really get it, but good for them. We got gluten-free this, gluten-free that. So give me your gluten-free third most confusing team in the NBA. While you're giving them all the gluten-free, if you then have extra gluten just like sitting in the pantry, I'll just eat all the extra gluten because I eat everything. There you go, just a pile of gluten. I'm just going to sit in the corner just scarfing gluten.

My third most confusing team. I guess these were in no particular order other than the – What? You're banned from doing this podcast in the future? You didn't rank them? No, I didn't. Did you spend time ranking them? The Lakers were definitely number one. And then you just stop. You're one of those, like, after that it's irrelevant. It's just a random list. It's just that's what you think of this podcast, Howard? You put that little care into the podcast?

All right. My sincere apologies, Zach. Thank you. Give me your third most confusing team. If we go three for three, I think that might be unprecedented in the history of this podcast. Scholars will have to check that, but we'll see. Are streamers going to pop and come fluttering down if we go three for three? Is there going to be like a marching band? I'm curious to see what happens. My third most confusing team, Zach Lowe. Your Atlanta Hawks. Three.

Three. Look at this. I've got streamers coming down to my home office. Break out the mango white claw. We are three for three. The Atlanta Hawks were number one on my list of confusing teams. Wow. Talk to me.

Very, very confusing. Very confusing. I mean, speaking of teams that made the conference finals, and so we go from underrating them to overrating them to now not sure what the hell to do with them. I jotted down next to the Hawks, all they need is some defense, right? So 43 wins last year, a big come down, smoked in the first round by the Heat in five games. Yeah.

I don't know how to define even where they are. Is this an identity crisis? Is this a retooling? Are they still retooling? Is John Collins, who's been on the trade block for like 532 consecutive days, eventually going to be traded? Is he still there? They were 26th in defensive efficiency last season, down from 18th, which at least was semi-respectable the year before.

The second best offense last year. All right. So they get to Jante Murray. They get to Jante Murray. Jante Murray should improve their defense. He should improve their offensive balance. He should force them to adjust a little bit and make Trey, you know, adjust his game a little bit, play off the ball a little bit more, diversify the offense, make them a little bit harder to guard, a little less Trey centric. There's all these things that should happen.

They have in, in DeJounte and DeAndre Hunter and Capella, you've got the, the outline of a respectable defense perhaps. Um, and yet we don't know how DeJounte and Trey are actually going to mesh and how much control Trey is going to be willing to give up, uh, with, uh, offensively ball control, playmaking, all that. Um,

They have some serious injury histories with key guys. Obviously Bogdanovich, Hunter, Collins. It's not like they're a new team. The core of a team that we've seen for the last few years is there, but I almost feel like I'm looking at them as a new team in some way. And I also think that maybe there are still other shoes left to drop because it seems like they're always on the verge of potentially trading John Collins if they find the right deal.

The Hawks are at 45.5 wins over under, according to Vegas. And I think if you zoom out and tier out the East, here's why the Hawks are confusing. Tier one is Philly, Milwaukee, Boston. That's the top three in the East going into the season. Okay? And the Nets with an asterisk. I'm not. No. No. All right. Seven asterisks. No. Five asterisks. No. Careful. Careful.

Nets don't get to go in that tier. You just don't get to go in that tier after the last two seasons. You're out of the tier. Now, that's three of your six non-play-in playoff spots occupied. I think if people went right below that, they'd say, wait a second, Miami was in the conference finals. They belong there. A team that did not make my most confusing teams list because I am wildly high on them and again would bet the over if such things were allowed is Toronto.

Brooklyn, now we're up to six. And I think the Atlanta confusion and one of my other confusing teams falls into this bucket too is Atlanta is in that tier somewhere.

And I think the question is, are they at the high end of that tier? Like, are they so good on talent with one of the best offensive players in the league? A system that works so well. They were number two in offense last year. A defense that just has to be better than it was at number 26. Adding DeJounte Murray, who will actually get this team some steals. This team forces no turnovers. He will help that get them out in transition.

Will he mesh with Trey Young? We'll see. He will prop up the offense when Trey Young rests, which has been a chronic problem for them, although less so in the latter period of that year. Are they so good? John Collins, whatever you think of him, is a really, really good player. Clint Capella was a borderline All-NBA player two seasons ago. Had a step back last year. Should be healthier this year. He's still not even 30. On pure talent, you look at that starting five. Trey Young, DeJounte Murray, Hunter, Collins, Capella. Great lineup.

Off the bench, Murray is effectively your backup point guard. Bogdanovich coming off injury, we'll see. Optimistic that he's been part of their best lineups since he's gotten to Atlanta. Justin Holliday, Jalen Johnson, not great at the three and four. Okongu as a backup center is elite. On talent, you look at that team and say, boy, are they so good that they're at the top of that Miami-Toronto-Brooklyn tier with a shot of going into the top three? Or...

Do we not believe in their defense? Do we not believe in their depth? Do we believe that there are going to be hiccups in the Trey DeJounte fit? DeJounte Murray ran, I think, the fourth most pick and rolls in the entire league last year. Trey was first. DeJounte Murray shot 34% on catch and shoot threes. Not just threes, the best threes, 34%. 31% the year before. Now he's become a very good mid-range shooter. Perhaps that's encouraging. Are there going to be hiccups there?

That they're one injury or one bad break away from being like, oh my God, the Hawks are ninth. I think the level of variance with this team might be higher than with any team in the entire NBA. They're a no-brainer for this list. I mean, the highest level of variance is a team that you've banned from this podcast, but...

I mean, there's a team that you didn't mention, even in just the clutter that the Hawks have to break through. Because they're on my list, Howard Beck. Don't spoil it, but go ahead and say their name. The Cleveland Cavaliers are somewhere in this mix. And so, again, like I was...

saying with the Mavericks, like there's this, this, this problem of it's not just not whether or not the Hawks made good moves and DeJounte Murray's good pickup and whether or not it works and all that. It's also just that things are really freaking crowded because, uh, this is where the NBA is right now. There are just a lot more quality teams, not necessarily elite dominant all time teams, but there's a dispersal of talent where you just have a bunch of teams that are, that are at minimum solid.

And we don't know what the Cavs are going to become, which is why they're on your list. But they should be in this mix. They should be in that second to third tier. And that potentially shoves the Hawks all the way down to at best play-in.

in the 7-10 range, and then things can get dicey. But, I mean, look, is there a scenario where the Hawks, where everything falls into place and they snare one of the six guaranteed spots? You can tell me there are scenarios where they win 50 games. That's how good their talent is. Now, that requires Bogdanovich being healthy to start the season. It requires – I mean, they're not the sexiest names, but I think two of the most important guys on this team –

short-term and long-term are DeAndre Hunter and Onyeka Okonkwo. It requires Hunter becoming way better as a catch-and-go playmaker and more willing as the three-point shooter, which he's still very young. He's not that young, but he's still pretty young. And Okonkwo, I think, is a stud. The only downside is he can't play really with Capella, so you have a minute ceiling kind of placed on him. And their depth is their top eight I love. After that, I get nervous. Although

Although Justin Holliday, I think it was a sneaky, was a sneaky important part of that herder trade for them. He's just like your classic dependable bench wing. Just everybody's happy to have Justin Holliday on their team.

I just have no idea how many games this team is going to win. Again, their over-under is at 45.5. By the way, so is the Raptors. Boy, would I hit the over hard on that. That Hawks line feels dicey to me. I don't know where I would go with it. I just know that they could go a lot of different ways, and I'm fascinated to see

see how they play. I mean, defensively, again, they were 26 last year, but you look at opponent shooting numbers, they just got lit up from everywhere. How much of that was luck? How much of that was just bad defense? We know Trey is a huge liability defensively that they have to hide.

Murray will help. Underrated part of Murray is that DeAndre Hunter no longer has to guard these super quick guards. Like DeAndre Hunter had to guard everybody because Trae Young can't guard anybody. He had to guard the best guy on the other team. And sometimes that meant really fast guards. And that's not the best matchup for him. He guards up in size better than down in size. So Murray's here for that. I don't know what to make of this team.

I think it would be a disappointment if they fall. I think fans would be justified being disappointed if they're in the play-in tournament, even though I think that's a totally realistic outcome for them. I think being anywhere below eighth would be a major disappointment regardless. And you could tell me that they finish ahead of Miami, Toronto. I wouldn't be surprised. I think they're the most confusing team in the league outside the Voldemort that shall not be named. Yeah.

I agree. By the way, I just want to note for the record, though you do not bet, you have now made, I think, like 17 theoretical bets in the course of discussions. You know why? Because I've come to realize that I'm just going to have to learn more about gambling. It's just going to be part of our job and part of our industry. It's something I have not had any interest in.

I don't, you know, people are like, well, you can get this money line at this and that. And I'm like, this is like a foreign language to me. I'm just going to have to learn more about it. I've accepted that Howard Beck at my old age, I will have to learn some new tricks. I have, I have theoretically accepted the same, although in truth, I still have not educated myself and all that stuff confuses the hell out of me. Um, we get those, the, the frequent emails from our guy, Jimmy Shapiro at whichever, I can't even remember. I'm sorry, Jimmy, which one that you're

promoting and you click it and you go to some screen and there's just like numbers everywhere. And I, I, I just lock up. I don't know what plus 300 means. I don't, it's all just confusing to me. I've never made that. Can I ask you a question? Not really into basketball. And I'm doing this selfishly because I, I mentioned recently on a podcast that every once in a while, I just want to take three minutes and talk about something that's awesome before,

because I think we should talk about things that are awesome more. So what's your favorite television show that you feel like nobody ever watched? Your, your like hidden gem television show. Oh, of all time, of all time, of all times.

Wow. It's funny because actually we just finished season two of a series that's new right now that I don't think enough people are aware of called Reservation Dogs. Do you know this on Hulu? Heard of it. Don't know what it is. Reservation Dogs is about kids on a Native American reservation. That's what the reservation is referring to. The dogs part is that they have dubbed themselves as their group of friends as the res dogs, the reservation dogs.

It's incredible. It is. I've never seen any other series quite like it. I don't know exactly how to describe it. It is. It's moving. It's funny.

It's creative. It sometimes moves into some really strange spaces that are just wonderful. There's just so many great things going on. I cannot possibly describe it as well as, say, our friends Andy Greenwald and Chris Ryan over at The Rigger on The Watch Pod. I was just listening to them rhapsodize about it after I finished season two because I like listening to their analysis. They're smarter about TV than I am. It's incredible. It is a series that I don't think...

I have not heard any buzz about it outside of say, like, you know, TV critics on podcasts. It's fantastic. My wife and I finished it last night. Highly, highly recommend. My second favorite show, here's a public service announcement. My second favorite show ever, and I have not watched that much television in the last 10 years, so take it with a grain of salt.

Is halt and catch fire. Nobody watched halt phenomenal. That was one of our eyes Yeah, that was one of our lockdown shows when when the world shut down and we just started binging everything we did that halt and catch fire is Absolutely incredible. Everybody should watch it loved it I saw it about two years ago and I loved it so much and then I saw Mina Kimes wearing a halt and catch fire shirt and

on TV one day and I texted with me and I was like, wait a second, are you a fan? And I'm test driving this idea now.

Mina and I love the show so much that we hit the creator of the show, Christopher Cantwell, and we hit some of the cast members and said, would any of you like to come on the Low Post podcast, which is about basketball, and just have Mina and I ask you questions about your amazing show? And they're in, and we haven't done it yet. So Twitter people, listeners, should we do the Mina Kimes, Zach Lowe, Halt and Catch Fire Love Fest podcast?

Maybe, yes, no, let us know. Back to the Hawks. I vote yes. Hard yes. Back to the Hawks. I guess we'll see. Part of the issue with their wing depth is it's a little harder for them to get to DeAndre Hunter at power forward, which has been often on a good lineup for them, sometimes defensively challenged. Just a lot of mystery with the Hawks. Howard, if we go four for four...

I might actually go get a mango White Claw from the beer fridge and bust it out on this podcast now. What is your fourth most confusing team? And just pretend that you ranked them, okay? It's not the team that you referenced earlier that's on your list that we should probably get to, but I did include the Memphis Grizzlies.

They're not on my list. So we are, we are now on separate tracks. I did a Grizzlies preview with Chris Vernon a couple of weeks ago. People should check that out. I will let that suffice for my thoughts, but I'm interested to hear why you think they are confusing Mr. Beck. I'm not sure whether they overachieved. Um, and I, I mean that as a compliment, not as a knock, uh, they,

They've got a great established winning formula. John Morant's going to attack you. He's going to make plays. He's going to get to the rack. He's going to score in all kinds of creative, impossible, awesome ways. They have elite defense. They've got shooting. They've got toughness. They've got youth. All of it, I believe in. I think all of those things are substantial and real, and they can replicate it for another season. But

Is that enough in a Western conference that is now closer to, I guess, normal for lack of a better term, meaning we're presuming the Nuggets are at full strength sometime soon with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back. We're presuming a Clippers team that we all believe could be, if not a contender, in some places, the favorite to come out of the West with Kawhi Leonard back. If the Suns don't stumble because of all the weirdness shrouding them,

The Warriors are starting the season with Klay Thompson now fully functioning and a nice crop of young players who are part of the rotation. The Warriors are better on opening night of 2022 than they were 2021. They won the freaking championship. We've discussed the fact that the Lakers are possibly a little bit better. The Pelicans are better and the Timberwolves are better. The Blazers and Kings are even plausibly better than they were.

I just think that in the mix of all that, and again, this doesn't mean I think those teams that I've listed are all ahead of the Grizzlies. I just think the West has gotten measurably tougher and especially at the top. And the Grizzlies were the number two team in the conference last year by wins. So it is now Jaron Jackson Jr. starting the season on the shelf, stress fracture in his right foot.

Is Ja Morant plus all that stuff we talked about enough given the sheer talent at the top of the West right now? And that's what I don't know. And so while I think that they will fundamentally be just as good as they were, just as solid as they were, it may still result in them slipping a few spots in the standings.

I will let my comments with Chris Vernon stand. I agree with you on your concerns. Many of my slight Grizzlies concerns and his listeners might remember zero long-term concerns. Love what this team has. Love what they're doing. Any, any slight concerns I have this year that they, that they are at some risk of falling toward the play in tournament, maybe into it are 100% about,

Jaron Jackson Jr. being injured for an undetermined period of time. If it's 10 games, those concerns are small. If it's 30 or 20 or whatever, those concerns get bigger. And just replacing the D'Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson minutes and all of that. But

Bet against jaw at your peril, doubt jaw at your peril, doubt their toughness at your peril long-term. They remain as intriguing and as exciting as they were four months ago, but I don't disagree with you having them here. Now we're going to go to my list, my list. You have something to add about the Grizzlies? No, I was going to ask you, where were you on the 21 and four or whatever they were without jaw? Where did you fall on the explanation rationale and what that actually means for them?

I thought it was a big enough sample size to certainly be of interest and indicate that their defense improved without him to such a degree that they were able to win a ton of regular season games. And yet I said all along last season, as they were winning those games, that the playoffs were a different ball game and that they were dead in the water without his shot creation in the playoffs. And the playoffs proved that to be correct. And so I could see them winning a ton of regular season games again, if he misses time, when he misses time.

But they just don't have anyone that can replicate what he does, breaking down defenses even close in the playoffs and their offense floundered without him against both Minnesota and then the Warriors, who I agree with you, by the way.

I saw Pelton's projections and people can go crazy about Pelton's projections. This is just numbers. It's just numbers. The numbers assume things like injuries and age-related regression and they don't know what to make of James Wiseman and Kaminga and they assume certain things about minutes distribution. They assume maybe certain things about how much a team is going to care about the regular season.

And yet I was still very surprised when they projected the Warriors to win 42 games this year. That to me is insanity. I think the Warriors are going to be amazing when they care. I don't know how much they're going to care about the regular season, but I 100% agree with you. They should be at their apex better than they were last year when all they did was win the freaking championship.

Now we're going to my list. Yes. My number four most confusing team. I don't know. I don't remember what my rankings were at this point. Oh, you're going to chastise me about ranking and now you're going to admit it. Well, now my rankings are a mess because I threw all my papers around. I'm going to say they're number four. The Portland Trailblazers. You mentioned them earlier as a team that has improved in the Western Conference. They certainly fancy themselves as a team that has improved in the Western Conference. They acquired Jeremy Grant for the small price of one first round pick and some other things.

They are hoping to get some minutes from guys that they acquired sort of willy-nilly over the last couple years. Your Justice Winslow's, your Keon Johnson's, maybe Shaden Sharp even cracks the rotation. They signed Gary Payton in free agency. He's going to be a key player off their bench and I think also kind of playing a lot with their starters. They extended Anthony Simons who, I mean, these numbers blow your mind, man. This is Anthony Simons' catch-and-shoot three-point percentage. Catch-and-shoot, which is what you want around Dame.

You don't necessarily want, you know, a guy who's going to meander around with the ball, run laborious secondary pick and rolls, whatever. Catch and shoot threes, high volume. 48% last year.

51% in 2021. This dude is an elite, elite shooter who can carry the offense, hopefully to some degree, keep it afloat, keep it treading water. When Dame, who's obviously coming off injury and surgery. So that's kind of a question mark too. When Dame is on the bench, um,

And so there are reasons to look at this team and say, okay, that's the outline of kind of a good team. Their starting five is going to be Dame, Anthony Simons, question mark, Jeremy Grant, Yusuf Nurkic. The question mark could be Nasir Little, could be Justice Winslow, could be Josh Hart, who I really like. It's a good, solid starting five.

Their bench will be Simons, effectively a backup point guard, Gary Payton Jr. And I would do the thing where I sub Gary Payton Jr. in quickly to play with the starters if I'm going to use Simons as my backup point guard because he fits, you know, he can play. The more shooting and talent you have around him, the better he looks. Two of the Nasir Little, Josh Hart,

Justice Winslow wing trio that I mentioned before. And then some question marks at the big man spot. It's an interesting team on paper. It's an interesting team. Did they make your list? I thought long and hard about them. I did not ultimately put them on.

They are confusing. There's no question. In a large part, it's the obvious. What do we make of this team after a season in which Damian Lillard was out with the most serious injury of, I would say, probably his career? What is he now? And what is he in a backcourt with Anthony Simons instead of CJ McCollum? And what does Jeremy Grant provide? And is just importing a couple of guys like Grant and Gary Payton

Junior, is that enough to make you a plausible defensive team now? An area that's obviously long been a sore spot for them. And then even if you go with the optimist view of them, hey, look, Dame Lillard is still elite and we assume health. We assume he's back to the old Dame. Simons has been, you know, he broke through last season and Grant props up the defense and he's versatile, blah, blah, blah, blah.

it still comes back to the fact that the west as we were just discussing has gotten just so damn good that you know a few years ago maybe this version of the blazers would have been a top four team in the west and in today's west it's they could struggle to make the play-in they're just so blah to me i look at that lineup that i just mentioned it's fine like it's just fine i think jeremy grant's become a little overrated

I love all the wings I mentioned as the fifth starters. They're all fine fifth starters. Nurkic is just okay as a starting NBA center. He's fine. Damon Simons, it's like can we defend with two small guards for the 10th consecutive year in Portland? And if Nurkic isn't a borderline elite backline defender anymore, and I don't think he is, I think he's lost a quarter of a step or so defensively. I just – Dame Simons, Nurkic –

I just don't know how you build a good enough defense around that trio, which is why I would bring Peyton in early in games for Simons. And the bench is like just okay. I mean, who's their backup center? Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford. Trendon Watford has one of the great floaters in the NBA. That's cool. He's undersized as a center. He's not great.

It's just so blah. And when the Blazers have been good in the last 10 years, it's mostly been because their offense is incredible. So their offense ranked 27th last year. Throw it out the window. It's a lost season. They were tanking so furiously. I almost admired it in the last 20 games of the season. The previous three years, they were second, third, and third in points per possession.

And that lifted up a defense that in some years was awful, in some years was average, in some years was somewhere in between. I just don't look at that team as brilliant as Dame is. And those numbers are a tribute to Dame because those supporting casts were not like chock full of elite offensive players outside of CJ McCollum. I just don't see like an unbelievable offense out of that personnel. And I certainly don't see a good defense outside.

I don't see great depth in the ability to withstand an injury to one of the best players. I just see a blah. It's just blah. Like I see a 500 team and they're confusing, I guess, because there's enough there to intrigue you and talk yourself into, well, they could be six in the West. They could win 45, 46 games. They're over under is around 40. It's 39 and a half. Um,

And there's also so, so many questions that like I could see the season really slipping away from them. I think they just look kind of 500 to me. And last year they tried this like crazy blitzing defense with Nurkic, even though that's not how they're built to play. They played a lot of zone and they just found absolutely nothing that worked. And schematically, I don't know what Chauncey Billups answer is going to be this year, but it's not how they played last year. Even at full health, they can't blitz and trap. They just gave up tons of threes and tons of shots at the rim and

um I just feel kind of blah man I feel bad because I love Dame and I and I like Portland and they have some of the best fans in the NBA and I just don't know where they're going no I don't either um I you know look at minimum let's hope that there's a full season of a healthy Dame doing Dame things again and that alone will will make them fun to watch at times and him and Simons together

could be really explosive. And yes, they're undersized and all the other stuff. So at minimum, hopefully the Blazers are at least fun and interesting. I know you've referred to the lineups several times in the last few minutes as blah, but like the... It's just so blah. Well, the non-blah thing is that you have Damon Simons. Yeah, it's exciting. It's exciting. You're right. That twosome is explosive. And so, yeah. I mean, but look, probably they're scrapping around in the, you know, let's try to make...

the last playing spot. And yet I sit here and I'm like, I really like what Nasir little showed last year before his injury and he's healthy. And I think he's, he's, he's, he's going to start going full blast in camp and playing well. I think GP two is a really good fit on this team. Although it's hard for them to do the thing that the warriors did, which is build lineups where he's the only non shooter on the floor. So he has free reign to roll to the rim. I would like to see them try to,

like Justice Winslow at center and just sort of see how that looks. Not that he's a shooter. He's also a non-shooter. But I just would – given their other options at backup center, they should at least try that. And I think they're going to find minutes for Sharp. I think they're impressed early with what they've seen from Sharp. I just don't know how he fits into your standard nine-man rotation. But I think they're going to try and find minutes for him. So there's – again, like I could talk myself into it.

But at the end of the day, I just don't feel awesome. You want to get to your fifth team? I have already revealed my fifth team. Well, no. So let's talk about the Cavaliers because they're another one that I seriously considered and then left off because I decided that why I'm not confused is that I just think they're really good. They're going to be top six in the East. And there are some things that have to go right there and some adjustments and things. But I didn't feel that confused about the Cavs.

You just feel like those four guys answer enough of the questions that this is a four. I mean, top six in the East could take 47 wins. So I'm convinced that Voldemort for now is somewhere in that top four or five, along with the Sixers, Celtics, Bucks. And so there's the four. And then five, six comes down to a three-way battle between the Heat, Cavs, and Raptors. That's the way I see it right now.

You didn't even mention the Hawks. So you're, you're, you're hating on the Hawks. No, I just have, well, because they're more confusing for me, I I've downgraded them just slightly as I'm scratching out tears. That doesn't mean that they're not going to end up top four or five, six. It's just that as of right now, I had more questions about the Hawks than I had about the Cavs.

but that said look you you go because you had listed them earlier but yes like start with donovan mitchell and darius garland having to mesh their games and and giving up size in the backcourt again this issue so there is there is that but then they also have possibly the greatest defensive

front court tandem in the NBA. So anyway, you go. Well, look, let's just be clear. Two of the following eight teams are in the play-in tournament. However you want to slice the health, the luck, the injuries, the math, whatever. Two of Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, Toronto, Voldemort, Hawks, Cavs. Two of those teams are in the play-in.

Come to grips with it, Cavs fans, Hawk fans, Voldemort fans, Raptors fans, Heat fans. Two of those teams, all of whom, if you ask them internally, of course we're a top six team. Of course. No brainer. Disrespectful to say otherwise. Okay, well, two of you aren't going to be. There's a math problem. I feel about the Cavs exactly as I did about the Hawks.

In that, I can't decide if on pure talent, because those four dudes are so good, they're closer to like fourth, third in the East, or closer to seventh, eighth in the East. I guess I lean...

Like I lean towards I think it's more likely they're hosting a first round playoff series for five for five. I don't think they can get higher than that without something bad happening to somebody else than they are to be eighth or ninth. But eighth and ninth wouldn't surprise me. But I would say I think Cleveland's more likely to be like fourth or fifth just based on those four guys, because offensively, Garland and Mitchell are a great fit.

Mitchell solves the we can't score without Darius Garland because we have nobody that can dribble after Ricky Rubio's injury problem. Mobley and Jared Allen solve a lot of problems defensively together and then staggering them so one is always on the floor.

And then my concerns, though, are not so much the small forward spot. Like everyone's fixated on they don't have a big wing. They don't have a big three and D wing. You know, blah, blah, blah. Is Isaac Okoro going to make any shots? Who's starting at the three? I have no idea who's going to start at the three, and I don't really care. I care. I care. It's an issue they're going to have to solve medium term, long term. I don't really care if they solve it immediately. Could be Okoro. Could be Jetty Osmond.

Could be Karis Levert, who is apparently killing it in camp. I don't think I would pick him and I don't think they'll pick him because I think they worry about those three guys defensively and they like his ball handling off the bench. It could be the recently extended Dean Wade. And as I keep saying on this podcast, even though he sounds like an accountant, good things happen when Dean Wade is on the floor. Just do on both ends of the floor. He can guard a lot of positions and shoot threes and he's a smart player. Good things happen. So maybe it's him.

I just worry a little bit about their depth. Like, I'm not ready to trust Okoro. Osman's all right. Wade's all right. Kevin Love was a massive part of their depth last year. And, you know, we'll see if he replicates what he did. I think he could. I guess it comes down to until Rubio comes back, I just, their depth feels a little shaky to me. Like, their bench is going to be

Neto, Levert, Jetty, Love, and one of the big guys. I mean, that's fine. That works. It's one injury away from like, oh my God, Lamar Stevens is heavily involved here. And that makes me a little bit nervous. But I think on pure talent, these guys are really, really good. I'm just interested to see how good, how they withstand adversity, how they fill out their depth.

And how they do guard the Tatums and Browns and Hardens and Durants and whoever's of the world. And yeah, of course, nobody can guard those guys, but you need somebody so that you don't have to swarm with nine guys to prevent them from scoring. And I think long term, medium term, one of the reasons I'm not that

really super worried about that the theoretical small forward hole is I think long-term medium-term short-term even the guy that can guard those guys is Evan Mobley and I know Evan Mobley is a quote-unquote big but it's not that hard in the modern NBA to finagle the matchups so that Evan Mobley is guarding Jason Tatum I mean in the finals Anthony Davis guarded Jimmy Butler like it's not that hard to do and I think he's the best equipped for it and by the way

he's going to be a monster. I mean, the stuff you're hearing about his shooting and his playmaking. So I'm a little confused about them. I'm optimistic, but I think there's a little bit more of a short-term downside, a little bit more severe or slippery of a short-term downside than maybe people have realized given the excitement over the Donovan trade. Yeah, but I also think that when you have that much talent, if you have four guys who are plausible all-stars, three of whom already have been and one of whom soon will be,

like you're already starting so far ahead that when you're talking about the who to starts at small forward or is the bench quite good enough or whatever, like a lot of that, it's not that it goes away and it's not that it's unimportant. It's just that,

given health, you, you know, you've got the ability to stagger your, your stars. You've got an ability to always have in their case, you're always going to have an elite score playmaker on the court. If they want to, uh, you know, arrange it in such a way that Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland, at least one is always on the court. They can do that. That already puts you ahead of the game. Um,

You mentioned they have the big frontcourt, but then Jared Allen can go to the bench. Mobley can be your five. They've just got all these different things they can do where you don't have some massive drop-off, and you're just starting from such an advantage at having...

you know, four legit all-stars on your roster. So to me, that means that their floor is very high. Like they're just not, no matter what else, what other question marks we can raise, they're going to be fine. I think their floor should be seven. And that's, by the way, all of this is before

allowing for the fact that maybe the Bulls withstand these injuries, this injury to Alonzo, better than people expect. It could be to Sumnu and Pat Williams making a leap, whatever it is. I mean, both those guys should make leaps. They should get better. Allowing for the Knicks to exceed expectations or whatever wild thing you want to predict. I think Cleveland's floor should be seven and eight.

I'd be optimistic about something going wrong with one of those other six teams that they get in to the top six and have a shot, like I said, to host a first round playoff series. But we'll see. Give me your just real quick. What's the what's the fifth team we didn't get to? The fifth team we didn't get to, which you'll be happy we didn't get to it because I put this one in there partially because I thought it would be fun, partially to make your head explode and partially because I legitimately put on my Fox Mulder hat and said, I want to believe.

in the Sacramento Kings. Look, I talked about them last week with Kevin Pelton. I think they're way better than their projections. Their over-under is 33.5. I find that crazy low. Yes.

I just don't know what believing – believing means we could get 10th. That's the – and by the way, hang the banner. Hang the banner, Vivek. You got 10th. Hang the banner. Lost play-in probably by a lot, 20, 22, 23. But I think they're going to be solid. But people can listen to my Kings podcast from last week with Mr. Pelton to –

to see what I think about Malik Monk and Kevin Herter and Harrison Barnes and Domantas Sabonis and on and on. And I think they have a solid team. They're, they're interesting. And we didn't really get enough of a sample size of Sabonis and Darren Fox together to really know what that will look like. Um, and now, you know, it's the whole usual thing. They've got a full training camp with them. They brought in Herter. They've got more shooting. Now they've got a lot of interesting pieces. They're high on Davion Mitchell. And I, you know, uh,

Everybody seems to love Keegan Murray. Like there's something interesting going on there. And very interesting. And they have the perfect coach, as I said last week, to just say, hey, cool. All this pace, offense, all that stuff. We're going to lean into pace. He's saying all the right things about playing fast with De'Aaron Fox. Here is the bedrock of how we get competent. Because as I said last week,

competence is all we're aiming for. The 2022-23 Kings. Can we be a competent franchise? And can we be competent enough?

That if we're competent for 20 games, we don't get A, irrationally exuberant or B, so dumb that we do something that sabotages our own competence like firing the coach or making a crazy trade because that's what they do. Every time you see a little light at the end of the tunnel, they just destroy the tunnel and everyone gets smashed underneath the rubble. Just competence. And the best way to do that is here's our defensive scheme. It's simple. We know the personnel is not great.

But just like the Mavericks last year, if you just follow the rules all together on a string, try really hard, we can be average defensively. The Mavs are way better than that. We can be average. If we're average defensively, we give ourselves a chance to win every night. Maybe not average. Maybe like 18th, 19th, whatever. Close to average.

I'm high on the Kings. 10th place, hang the banner. 10th place if Portland fails or the Lakers fail or the Pelicans fail. 10th place, hang the banner. If they finish 11th and miss the play-in, imagine if they finish 11th and miss the play-in on the last day of the season. They're playing for 10th and they lose in some super Kings-y fashion. I just...

I hope they get 10th. It would just be too much. I do not wish that on them. Obviously, you know my Northern California ties. Grew up in the Bay Area, went to school at UC Davis down the road from Sacramento. And on top of that, I spent all those years covering Lakers-Kings series. And so I know how passionate, how intense that fan base is, how much they love the Kings when they're good. They've got this great new arena that has just gone, I don't know, I want to say like

It's not that it's been rendered useless. It's just like they can't even show it off because they never play any games that matter. And Kings fans deserve better. Sacramento deserves better. And that 16-year drought needs to end. It's really incredible. It's unsightly. I think if they get to 20, if they get to 20 years, I have to think more about this. Something has to happen. Like, I'm not even sure what I'm saying. Like, if they get to 20 years...

They need to... I don't even... I just don't even know. I was going to say they need to let Chris Webber take over the team. They've already let every ex-King have some role in running the team. They need to just let the fans... They need to hold a random drawing of fans...

to be the GM and coach of the team if they get to 20 years without making the playoffs. I think this actually goes back to one of my drunk with power ideas that we covered a couple of years back, which was my concept of team ownerships

are in like, it's a 10-year contract. And at the end of that 10 years, you have to be renewed. And if you're incompetent, if you're terrible, if you're corrupt, if you're a horrible person, as some recent owners have shown themselves to be, then you don't get a new 10-year run. You are not the owner. You are a steward. This is temporary. The fans can vote you out. So if the Kings get to 20 straight seasons of no playoffs, at that point, it should have triggered twice

the Howard Beck rule of the fans get to vote out the owner. And look, 20 versus 16 is not that big of a difference. I realize I am falling victim to the, oh my God, round numbers are cool way of thinking. Like, you know, 300 wins doesn't make you a better pitcher than 299, but it's still really cool. So yes. Okay. Let's wrap with that. I am a little confused about the Kings as are you. Mr. Beck, we can read you at Sports Illustrated. We can listen to you on

a crossover with Chris Mannix. Can I mute Mannix and just listen to your part? Is that okay? Or just listen to the ones with you and a guest? I actually recommend The Muting of Mannix, yes. The Muting of Mannix. That sounds like a movie about some long-forgotten war in the 1800s or some try The Muting of Mannix. Mr. Howard Beck, it's great to see you. I'll see you soon at the Barclays Center where we can see the team play basketball. Absolutely. Great to see you, Zach.