Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
And now, The Low Post.
amounted to not very much except an emphatic win for Boston. Milwaukee was on the fifth game in seven nights. It's obligatory. We have to say that. Hashtag rest, scheduling, all that stuff. The West, the top three are set. Phoenix has a pretty strong hold at four. We'll get to them. Clippers at 36 losses. Warriors 37. Three teams with 38 losses, including the resurgent New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix.
the semi-resurgent Los Angeles Lakers, the Thunder clinging to 10th at 39 losses, and the Mavericks trying to hold off an absolutely disastrous DEFCON 1 situation in 11th place. The Dallas Mavericks with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are 11th of 15 teams in the Western Conference. We got a lot to talk about. Kurt Goldsberry, guitar in the background, how are you?
What is up, Zach? It is great to see you. There's a lot going on. One of the favorite times of the year, any year during these playoff races. But this year seems particularly interesting. These last two weeks, there's a lot to shake out, as you just illustrated. I still look back fondly. Not many moons ago when LeBron, not in total jest, suggested that whoever created the play-in tournament, Evan Walsh, should be fired.
LeBron changed his tune when the play-in tournament was beneficial to the Lakers. And now there is not even... Someone asked me... We were talking about it on some podcast this week. I was a guest on the Orlando Magic podcast about what I think of the play-in tournament. And I said...
Is there even a fringe 2% that's like, we got to go back to the old way. This is a bad idea. This is a bastardization of basketball. Is there even any opposition party to this anymore? I haven't heard one. And it's poetic you're saying that right now because we're Final Four down here in Texas this weekend. And there's nothing better in the game of basketball than a must-win game. And the play-in tournament has brought us a bunch of those at the end of the season. NBA players...
you know, win or go home. That's fantastic. And we got more of those than ever. Thanks to the great Evan wash. You should not be fired. Let me go on the record. He should not be fired. The plan tournament has made the league better and, and the end of the season a lot more interesting. Yeah. There's only one team that,
That has really sunk into total embarrassment with five games to go. And that's Portland, who for the second straight season is just trotting out disgraceful, unwatchable lineups in an effort to juice their lottery odds at the last minute. Shout out Blazers. Thanks for a memorable season and a awful last couple of weeks. We won't talk about you again until the lottery and the basketball gods.
The lottery gods, which is a subset of the basketball gods, they're watching. They're watching. You know who they're paying attention to? The lottery gods are paying attention to the Charlotte Hornets. Steve Clifford, I'm thinking about scrapping my whole coach of the year ballot and just putting Steve Clifford, spoiler of the year, Charlotte Hornets number one. Okay, let's get to...
uh start with buck celtics uh here's where we are here's where we are after the celtics i don't even know what the hell the final score was it was a lot to a little 200 to 75 i believe i think it was 200 to 75 yeah it it felt that way um and again i know i know bucks people five games and seven nights i know i know you play you use the ugly blue court don't like that court um
So Boston now has the tiebreaker, but they are two games behind the Bucs. So they have to make up two games in five games. So if the Celtics go four and one, all the Bucs have to do is go three and two. If the Celtics go five and oh, well, then the Bucs got to win some ball games.
to cinch the number one shot is number one seed, which I think you and I can agree on. No disrespect is Richard Jefferson would say no disrespect, which is always actually followed by disrespect. No disrespect to the Cleveland Cavaliers. But I think that number one seed is just massively valuable for a whole host of reasons, including avoiding Philly in the two three series. Here's where we are. Boston's last five games, Utah at Philadelphia. Philadelphia has a hellacious final stretch here. They play everybody to
Toronto twice and the Hawks. So those are all, you know, tough-ish games for the Celtics. The Bucs have Philadelphia this weekend at the Wizards, Chicago, Memphis at Toronto. The Washington game is a big game because all the other teams have something to play for. I'm sure the Wizards in their head think that they have something to play for. They're only two games out of the 10th seed, which...
Hang the banner for the 10th seed if they get there, but they're fading out. It's not impossible for the Celtics to do this. It is going to be very difficult. Let's just zero in on last night, a complete shellacking of the Bucs in Milwaukee. Chris Middleton's face got busted up. Blood was everywhere. Do you take anything from that game personally?
In terms of if we see this matchup, you saw something, you noticed something, this mattered in some way. Yes, but it's not as cheap as just one game. I think we've seen these guys play enough. But there's two things that I think...
I took away and Boston did exactly what they needed to do. You just mentioned it's possible they get the one seat. Well, that would have been impossible if they didn't win. The actual score 140 to 99 last night. A shellacking. I look at both sides of the court for something that I think is noteworthy, Zach, if these teams meet again. And I mean, as a basketball fan, you kind of want to meet again because this is great basketball when they both play well. I love when these teams play. I don't like the blue court. But the first thing I'll say is
When Boston is making jump shots, they're virtually impossible to beat. If there's a bellwether on offense for this team in a single game or a series is it's this are the threes going in there 30 and one when they make 40% or better from the three point line. I don't love stats like that, but when it's 30 and one, you have to respect it. They're 12 and 18. I believe when they shoot 35% or lower. So again,
I think one of the things that happened last night is credit to Boston. They created shots and they made shots. If you'll let me get nerdy for a minute with the Boston offense in mind. Wait, you're not – it hasn't happened yet? We're now getting nerdy? We're just warming up, baby. So Boston outperformed their expected –
effective field goal percentage by 14 points last night. I'm sorry, keep going. They had their... The only game they had a higher such sort of outperformance over expectation was when they shellacked Milwaukee on Christmas. So...
When those shots are going in at high rates, they're unbeatable. And they've done it twice against Milwaukee this season. That's why they have this huge tiebreaker going into the last five games. I have a note on their defense too. But Zach, I wanted to throw that at you. The Missoula era has leaned into three-point shooting and that variance lifestyle. And I think when they shoot like they did last night, this team is simply unbeatable. The numbers back it up. Yeah.
It does make you think about, I mean, you could play, it's, it's just our dumb brains remembering what just happened and not, and, and, and being a prisoner of the moment. It does that Washington loss. If Boston had won that game, they'd be a game out now. Uh, that's a big deal. Um, so yes, the shooting, they shot the hell out of it. And when they shoot the hell out of it, they're hard to beat. Um,
To me, it was a reminder of, look, there's no matchup for Giannis and the Bucs. There's no answer for Giannis and the Bucs. But it was a reminder that the Celtics are, I think, as comfortable as any team can be defending any iteration of the Bucs without deviating from what they want to do. So here's what I mean.
In the starting five, which they started small, they started Horford at the center and the four wings slash guards. They put Marcus Smart on Giannis and the Jays on Middleton and Holiday and said, we're comfortable, smart on Giannis. And with those three, we can switch any two man action you do between your three best players. Um,
If the Celtics go differently, if it's Giannis and Portis instead of Giannis and Lopez, they can put their centers on Giannis. Al Horford can slide over and guard Giannis and a wing can guard Portis.
If it's Giannis at center and four guards around him, the Celtics don't really care. They'll play big against that lineup. They'll put Horford on Giannis and hide Rod Williams on Wes Matthews or Jay Crowder or Pat Connaughton, who, by the way, has fallen to the fringes of Bud's rotation. That's kind of a big deal that not a lot of people have talked about. So, to me, it was a reminder of they don't have to adjust to how the Bucs play and who the Bucs play because...
almost no matter what, they can play who they want and they have a matchup that they are okay with and can live with with Giannis. We know that they're going to hunt Pickett, whoever it is, Grayson Allen, Joe Ingles, Jay Crowder, even Chris Middleton kind of looked slow trying to defend the Celtics last night. We know they're going to pull those guys into two-man actions with the Jays and say, go to work, hunt them. What I liked last night,
was, and another matchup benefit is a strong word, another matchup wrinkle that I think the Celtics like is when they go small, it's not even small, when they play only one of Horford and Williams or Horford and Grant Williams, they have one of their three bigs, let's say, on the floor. And the Bucs have Giannis and another big like Lopez or Portis. Giannis has to guard a perimeter player. That's the only option that they have. And so he starts the game on smart.
And if Smart's not on the floor, sometimes it's Jalen Brown. Sometimes it's Derek White. And no matter where Giannis is, I like when they bring him in to the action. They don't shy away from him. They say, we want you in the pick and roll. If you're going to switch on to Tatum, that's fine. Because we think Tatum's actually comfortable in that matchup. And it takes you away from the basket. And...
A lot of teams steer away from Giannis. They're scared to involve him on the ball, and the Celtics are not, and they brought him into the action last night, and I thought that worked. Look, I...
I picked the Bucs to win the title before the season. They should get the number one seed. They're still my pick to win the title. It is just one game. It was five and seven nights. The shooting variance is what it is. They can't replicate that every game, as you said. But I do think it was a reminder of we're as big and physical as you. We have some answers or some solutions or some potential solutions, whatever word you want to use.
that probably no one else in the league really has against the way you guys play. And we're not afraid to come in here and win like we did in game six last year when our season was on the line. And it just makes it all the more puzzling that the Celtics have dropped all these weird games along the way to get here because last night that team was like,
Oh, my God. This is the championship caliber team that we've all been not waiting on because we've seen it. And the last thing before I turn back over to you was part of the, oh, my God, part of the, oh, this is the Celtics I remember. Rob Williams plus 20 in 19 minutes, four blocks, and four offensive rebounds. The Celtics are not getting out of the East if Robert Williams is not a big part of it. And part of my trepidation about the Celtics is it just –
Is he going to be a big part of it? Is it just going to be another situation where he misses one out of every four playoff games or a week here and there? I don't know. But when they have that force going towards the basket on both ends of the floor, because God, do they need someone going toward the basket on offense too? That's right.
They're just, it's just different team. Yeah. They're, they're a different team. And I think even in a macro scale sense, Zach, when they figured out Time Lord with the EMA, a doco regime, and they, they really came into their own on defense. That's when this team went from, what is this team to, Oh, they're a contender last year. And they figured it out. And that defense soared to the top of the league.
If there's a play that caught my eye last night watching, it was Giannis posting up Jalen late in the first quarter, sort of mouse-in-the-house style, drop step. He looks like he's going to lay –
lay in a bunny and Time Lord comes in to help with a clean block. And to me, this team is so deep defensively. When you look at who was defending Giannis' shots last night, you mentioned game six. I want to turn back the clock to game seven of that great series last year. But when you look at who was defending him last night, again, it's not one person. Sure, Horford does the most, but it's Time Lord, it's Marcus, it's Jalen. And last night they frustrated Giannis.
who had one of his worst nights of the year 41 of his shots 11 of 27 and for me again i'm not overreacting to last night i'm trying to connect the dots from what we've learned from these matchups in the past and that was a lot like game seven in boston last year which was a huge game people probably remember for grant williams but yannis had a nightmare 10 of 26 sound familiar 11 27 and
You're exactly right. When the Celtics defense really locks in, nobody can stop Giannis, but they have proved they can contain him at times and give him in a seven game series, a few just junky nights last night included. And they don't have to compromise who they play and how they play and how they match up to do it. I do think it's crazy to say this because he might make first team all defense and
I do think Milwaukee has to search out Derek White a little bit more than they did last night with Giannis, just because Giannis can overpower him. And there's nobody else on the Celtics to overpower. Like Derek, again, I think he's been better than Marcus Smart defensively this year. He has a first team all defense case to me.
But I think they have to search him out a little bit more because there's just sometimes that's the best answer you're going to get in a half court possession. I also like the Celtics pushing the pace a little bit against Milwaukee last night opportunistically. Just any time I can get out of going against their set defense when Giannis and Lopez are on the floor, I'm going to try to do it. And Jalen Brown...
He has mastered this transition backdoor cut that you don't see a lot of people make in transition and semi-transition where he's just running the wing straight parallel to the sideline and a dribbler will be on his side of the floor and suddenly he'll veer...
perpendicular like parallel to the baseline then and get a backdoor cut for a dunk he's doing it like once a game he's really good he's playing fantastic I went to the the shellacking in Boston on Sunday with my beloved Spurs uh and Greg Popovich and and Jason Tatum didn't play and Jalen Brown really just caught my eye he is playing fantastic uh basketball and and last night both him and Tatum were firing on all cylinders too I think they had 25 in the same game for the 33rd time um
And the only duo to do that more is Alex English and Kiki Vandewey, a throwback. Wow. You know, the signature of this team is two of those wings. And now they have this shooting ensemble around them. They made 23s last night, the 16th time they've done that this season. That's one of the most such tallies in league history. And again, that's sort of how they're a little bit different than last year is they're really leaning into that.
When Tatum and Brown are playing this well and those shots are going in, I mean, they scored 66 points from the three-point line on 43 shots last night. Like, it's just one of those games. You're going to have time. So I think those are my two takeaways. We mentioned the shooting stuff already. But to me, the defense thing is the real takeaway because it sort of tracks with when Boston has beaten this Bucs team in big games in the spring previously. And if this defense is back to where it was at its peak last year, then
Then this series, if they play again in the conference finals, let's say is a toss up in that, that last five game stretch that you did a great job outlining is huge for both of these teams. Can they get game seven at home? Let alone those four out of seven at home. The last five games for both of these teams are going to be huge. And Philly is going to have a say. I mean, again, Philly plays everybody. They play Toronto tonight. That's a big game. They played the Celtics, the Bucks. They play everybody good in the last five or six games. And again,
None of this is to dismiss Philly. As I've said all year, I think they have everything they need to win the title. It's just going to be tough if they've got to go on the road against Boston or Milwaukee and then on the road again against Boston and Milwaukee. It does look like...
Philly is going to catch a break and draw Brooklyn in the first round instead of potentially Miami. Miami's loss to the Knicks coupled with Brooklyn's win over the Rockets the other day, which was simultaneous games. They now have a two-game cushion on Miami and the tiebreak and a pretty easy schedule. And that's a best-case scenario for Philadelphia is to just avoid –
Like the last thing they need is James Harden with a bulky, what does he have a sore Achilles or something? And Jimmy Butler just talking to everybody in everybody's face being like, you chose to buy his hair. It's over me to buy his hair. It's over me. And like Joel and be looking wistfully over at Jimmy Butler as he drains like another mid range jumper and talks to her. They just don't need any of that in the first round of the playoffs after what happened last year. Um,
Buck Celtics. Look, I look like, Oh, Jalen Brown. I'm glad you mentioned that it's awards time, which sucks. And it's slash fun slash sucks. Slash is fun. Slash sucks. And he's making a run now.
At one of these forward spots because he is going to be eligible. We got the ballots the other day at forward and guard. And he's making a run at one of these forward spots because the forward position is just a mess. The guard position is overcrowded.
And this finishing kick, like Tatum's kind of had an inconsistent five weeks now. Like it's been a while. And Jalen Brown is like a metronome. Like he's just coming out every game, 30, 30, 30, 28, 22, 32, 35. And the South, it's funny. So the, the super max thing is so awkward and there's the, there's the super max that comes after your rookie deal where you get bumped up to 30%. And then there's the super duper max where you get bumped up to 35%. That's what Jalen Brown is staring at now.
So they're different, but it's so funny. Like it puts teams in such an awkward position of, well, it wouldn't be the worst thing if our guy didn't make all NBA. Cause then we don't have to pay him this gigantic contract. But now with the Celtics, if Jalen Brown makes all NBA, I think they're going to be doing backflips because they get this, they get this lever to pull, uh,
to tie him to their team for as long as possible, a lever that no one turns down. And, and frankly, that contract with whenever the new media deal kicks in and all that, like whatever it is, it's going to age fine for them. Okay. Let's go to the sons. Durant's back. That's the other big news of the week.
Rough game for him, but very rough game by his standards. The Suns, though, beat the Minnesota Timberwolves to improve to 4-0 with Durant. Their schedule is pretty tough going down the stretch to play the Nuggets twice, both LA teams, the Thunder, which is one of my games of the weekend, and your San Antonio Spurs. They do have all the relevant tiebreakers, I think, so they're in good shape there. They are now in 76 minutes...
With Paul, Booker, Durant, Aiton on the floor. Plus 42 in 76 minutes. Offensive rating 125. Defensive rating 99. Interestingly, everyone has looked at the mid-range like this is the mid-range gods. All of them together on one team.
Phoenix's shot selection has actually been more rim heavy with those four on the floor than it has been overall, like by a lot. And a lot of that is just all the attention they draw and all the rim runs that Aiton gets out of it. Now, look, those four games have come against Charlotte, Chicago, Minnesota and Dallas. So it's not like a bunch of world beaters. But what have you seen? What did you see in Durant's return game?
Where he did look rusty. Like when Kyle Anderson blocked him, like that doesn't happen. Nobody blocks Kevin Durant's jump shot. And his first step didn't look as fast as usual. But look, they look great to me. What did you see? What have you seen?
Yeah, tough night for Kevin. I think it was five of 16 hit a couple of vintage Durant shots. So for one of my favorite defenders in the league, it's Jade McDaniels and one of the best shot defenders on the edges and a guy who can block almost anybody shot in the NBA right now. And, you know, he is rusty. That's to be expected. It's still a new environment, obviously, for him to be expected.
But the ceiling is still arguably the best in the Western Conference. I haven't seen anything to deter me. And one of the things I hadn't I hadn't heard that rim stat that you put out that's fantastic. And I wonder if it's not it's not big. So like for the season, Phoenix, 26 percent of their shots come at the rim. That's last. And we know this is like jump shooting team. This is why when they whine about how few free throws they get, it's like, well, this is kind of baked into how you play. It's like, well, this is kind of baked into how you play.
It's 31% with those four guys on the floor, which would rank like 23rd, 24th in the league, which is...
good. That's good for them to get more stuff going to the rim. And it's one of the results that should happen when you have all these threats on the perimeter. Yeah, that's exactly what I was just going to say. Hey, you have Devin Booker on the left, Kevin Durant on the right, or whatever it is. You would expect DeAndre Ayton to get a couple more looks game on a rim run. I think we're on the same page there. And that's what I do love about this team. If they can figure out the shooting from three-point range when they have that group in, they're going to be on paper unstoppable.
They got to stay away from the orthopedics office. Their hamstrings have to stay healthy. There's a lot of ifs there, but I think we all see the same thing and the betters see the same thing. I think that's why they're the favorites to come out of the West, even though they're in the fourth spot. And in the last few games, they have to stay healthy.
in this fourth slot or else they'll be on the road early against potentially the Clippers, potentially a Warriors series. If I had to guess right now, it's Suns Clippers. But they need to win some of these games. And it's key for that, but it's also key. So those really small samples you're citing, Zach, we need to see this team get a little more familiar because right now it's still a science experiment out there in Phoenix. I don't know if I trust it.
Well, so here's the thing about the West. I mean, I've given up on who can win the West and who can't win the West. I officially just throw my hands in the air. I give up. I think Denver can win. I'm going down the sandings. I think Denver can win the West. Obviously, they're number one in the seed and they're 32-7 at home. I think Memphis can win the West. And I'm surprised I'm saying that because I thought they would feel the Clark-Adams absences more acutely than they have. Yeah.
And I still think they will feel that at some point. But they're playing great. They have the best point differential in the conference. Jobs back. They haven't missed a beep. They've really thrown their arms around Morant. Like, they really have. And he's been reintegrated seamlessly. Sacramento? Look, I don't think their defense is good enough. But I can't sit here and say, like, they can't win the West. I just can't say that. Like, I wouldn't pick them to win the West. In fact, I'm probably going to pick against them in the first round. I think. But...
That's where we are in the West. I will pick against a team in the first round and also think they could win the whole conference. That's where we are. The Suns are my pick to win the West. The Clippers were my pick to make the finals. I still think
There's a universe where it all comes together. I think they can win the West. The Warriors, assuming they get Wiggins back, and I think there's hope that that will happen. They just won the championship. I'm not counting them out. That's the top six. New Orleans, unless they get Zion back, I don't think they can win the West. Sorry, Pelicans. Minnesota, it's not insane. It just isn't. Well, the Nas Reed injury, which happened, and we don't know the severity of it. It appears to be a wrist fracture.
That's a big deal to their team. Now they do have, if they can redistribute his minutes to McDaniels, Edwards, Torian Prince, slow-mo. In other words, take the 20 whatever minutes he was playing. Each of those guys gets four or five more. I don't have to dip into my deep bench, whether it's guards or bigs. I can ease the ball a little bit, but it's a big deal. I think, I'm not counting out the Lakers. We're going to talk about them shortly. They look good.
That's eight teams. And here's the reality. The 4-5 matchup is probably going to be Phoenix against one of those teams that we just named. So someone is going home early. But in terms of Phoenix, you called it a science experiment, you said? Chemistry experiment. Yeah, science experiment right now. It's been a little...
less fluid than i i thought it would be a little snappier right away um it feels like they're kind of going through the paces like let's try this set you go there you go here then we go here then the ball goes here it doesn't feel organic and natural to me as i thought it would um
I think they probably, I would like to see them use Durant as a screener for Paul and Booker a little bit more. And they've done that in crunch time a little bit. I think they should do that more, but you just look when they, when they spread it out and it's like Booker Aiton, high pick and roll, Josh Akogi, watch Josh Akogi. You want to learn, you want to see how the sons play, watch where they put him. Josh Akogi in the strong side corner. So he's the no help guy, even though he's by far the worst shooter on the floor.
And then Durant and Paul or whoever spaced out two of the three, whoever's not handing the ball spaced out. Like that's just, that's a bear. That's a bear to deal with. There aren't a lot of great answers just to that. And fundamentally, that's why they're so threatening. And we can sit here and nitpick the bench. And I think the bench can be nitpicked. It's fair. I even think they have like, we'll see in the playoffs, if they keep two of those four guys on the floor almost all the time,
I think that should be enough, more than enough to lift everything up. Just a couple of lineups I noticed just in that last game that I liked. Paul, Booker, Okoge, Warren, TJ Warren, and Aiton. So the starters with Warren for Durant. That's four guys who can score around Okoge. Just another example of how they can mix and match. Paul, Okoge, Terrence Ross, Kevin Durant, DeAndre Aiton.
That's Terrence Ross with four good defensive players around him. So I get super shooting and I can protect an objectively weak defensive player off the bench with these four guys who can really defend. I think you look at their bench. They're all let's be honest. They're all like eighth ninth tenth guys on good team. A lot of them a lot of them out of the rotation on like much worse teams than this.
But part of the luxury of having three all-time players and Aiton, who's a very good player, is it's just easier for those guys to coexist when they have so much star power around them. I think they've got enough, but it just hasn't been as like, it hasn't been as easier, as fluid as I thought it was going to be. I think that's fair, but I also think it's pretty early. And, you know, that's the interesting thing with the West. So I think it's apropos we're talking about this now because the NCAA tournament,
It's been pure chaos, right? If you look at the Final Four in Houston, it's five seeds, it's nine seeds. It's craziness. UConn is arguably the favorite, and they're a four seed. It sort of reminds me of the Western Conference, where we're going to see a lot of people like you and me having trouble prognosticating the first round in ways that we usually don't. Is this just basketball now? Is this a result of...
These wild transactions, probably like the Lakers regular season numbers really don't matter because they're not the same group that we saw in October, November, December. Same with the Suns. You know, the Warriors have been sort of duct taped together all year.
The Clippers are always duct taped together. It's just really hard for people like you and me to look at this regular season of 22-23 and do what we normally do. Connect the dot into the postseason. And I think that's like the signature sort of thing in the Western Conference this year. I don't know if it's a sign of things to come. I'll leave that to other people. All I know is you're exactly right. If you look at the Vegas odds,
They don't respect the standings right now either. Do you know who the favorite to come out of the West is right now? It's Phoenix. Then Denver. Then the Golden State Warriors, who will have to win a lot of road games to come out of the West. And if they've proved to us anything at the regular season matters, that's just one of the dumbest bets on the board. That said, and I think we talked about this last time, Zach, if the Warriors five-man group gets together in time...
Like the question, it's a referendum on what do you trust more? Do you trust what you saw in last year's playoffs or do you trust what you saw in this year's regular season? That's what a lot of this is. Do you trust Kawhi Leonard?
his playoff resume or do you, do you trust like the Denver nuggets having the best record in the West? These are the kinds of questions we're asking. They're very unique. And, and the Sacramento Kings had a great season or currently I'm counting. They have the seventh hall, shortest odds to come out. Nobody respects, you know, and by the way, and by the way, Kings fans, like, first of all, congratulations. Right. What a wonder, what a wonderful story long overdue. The jokes now go extinct for a while.
The drought is over. Light the beam. Like, it's not super disrespectful to be... I'm not even skeptical. Like I said, I think the Kings could win the West and lose in the first round. That's the reality. It's not like they're a powerhouse. They're 46-30. Their differential is plus three per game. That's, like, good.
It's good. It's not like even a typical strong number three seed in a conference. I think they're like three games below 500 against... I think they're... Let me look it up now. I think it's 21 and 24. Yes, 21 to 24 against teams above 500. So like it's... And we know their defense has been bottom five, bottom six all year. It's not...
like crazy disrespectful to pick against him in the first round. Like it's just not. No. And yeah, one of the things that you pointed out there, the 46 and 30, if that's in the Eastern conference, congratulations for your five seed. Like they're not running away with anything.
I can't believe how happy I am for Mike Brown and for the Sacramento Kings fan base and the Light the Beam era. It's great. It looks sustainable. That's the nicest thing I'll say. It's like, this looks pretty good for a while, guys. You should be very happy. Kevin Herter, what a fantastic acquisition that's been. But yeah, you're exactly right. One of the other sort of signature trends this year from the nerdy perspective, Zach, is
is that the best net rating in the NBA this year is lower than it normally is by a wide margin. We talked about this in college basketball a lot this year, too, sort of the flattening of the bracket. Well, the Western Conference has flattened, too, for a variety of reasons. The
the log jam that we keep referencing and these weekend games that are going to determine the fate of the playoff bracket still wildly up in the air this late in the year. I don't, I don't know if we can guarantee any matchups in the West yet. Uh, it's just a crazy anomalous year, uh, Sacramento congratulations, but yeah, this is just a tough year to be a three seed in the Western conference. Back to the sons for a second. Um,
I'm just, I will watch every son's game now for the rest of the season to just get a handle on how Durant looks. Cause he, he looked rusty. I mean, Durant's like never been rusty coming back from an injury before. That was the first time I was like, Hey, it doesn't quite look like Kevin Durant. How they use them, how they use a Kogi. You know, I mentioned a strong side corner. He'll be in the dunker spot. Sometimes there'll be a screener. If they try to hide, if teams try to hide guys on him and just how they work their rotation in general, who, who Monte Williams ends up trusting off the bench and,
how much shooting they can put on the floor, all of it. I'm all in. It's going to be fun. This episode is brought to you by Experian. Are you paying for subscriptions you don't use but can't find the time or energy to cancel them? Experian could cancel unwanted subscriptions for you, saving you an average of $270 per year and plenty of time. Download the Experian app. Results will vary. Not all subscriptions are eligible. Savings are not guaranteed. Paid membership with connected payment account required. All right, I asked you to pick your games of the weekend.
Give me game one of the weekend, Kirk. I picked my games of the weekend. I picked four because I was indecisive about Friday's game of the night because there are a million games tonight. It's a monster Friday night because the NBA punts Saturday, Final Four Saturday, and almost nobody plays that day. Give me your game of the night for Friday, March 31st. Nugget Suns. Not one of my games. Not one of my games. Wait, that day played tonight? It wasn't mine until it's Friday, March 31st. Okay. Okay.
I mean, you don't have to sell me. I just said I'm watching every Suns game, so I guess I'm watching that game. Your listeners are going to think I'm suddenly a big Vegas guy. I'm not, but here's another Vegas stat.
The Phoenix suns are favored by nine and a half points. Does that tell you that Yogesh isn't playing? Uh, maybe, but that is another game. I I'm with you. I just echoed your point. I want to watch Phoenix all the way through because I'm going to have to put my name out there here in a couple of weeks and how far this Phoenix team's going to go. And I need all the data and all the visuals I can get. That's my first game of the weekend, Zach. Okay. I mean, I am surprised the line is that big. Um,
Maybe that is an indication Jokic isn't playing. And obviously Phoenix is sort of the team that people want to see how Jokic holds up defensively against that pick and roll attack and where they put him. Do they ever try to hide him on a Kogi? How do the Suns respond to that, et cetera, et cetera. You wrote a piece about Nicole Jokic's defense this week that I don't think went over well in Denver. No. I didn't see all the –
I'm sure very constructive feedback that you got from the Denver community, but I saw some and I heard some. Yeah. Well, I, I appreciate the opportunity to respond to what Mike Malone called a hatchet job. Hey, I'm honored. First time. One of my pieces has been called the hatchet job. I didn't see that. He actually said that. Did he name you or did he just say some guy at ESPN? Some guy at ESPN, some idiot. And, you know, I don't remember what the term was, but my editor found it. And it's definitely alluding to our piece. Yeah.
Look, Nikoli Jokic is my favorite player to watch in the league right now. I love him. I'm happy that he's won MVPs. But I saw an opportunity with this PZAC to really chime in on the big question. Is this dude a good defender, especially in the context of people like Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, who he's competing with for the quote unquote most valuable player. And so I was questioning, like, how are we looking at defense in this conversation? And after that viral video on March 10th surfaced against the Spurs, where Jokic is just getting attacked by the young bucks in San Antonio over and over and over again, I really wanted to dive into the numbers and look at his rim protection. The takeaway is this.
you know, compared to the other elite big men in the NBA, he's not great as a shot defender. He's giving up a high percentage in the paint and he's giving up more points per game defending layups than anybody in the player tracking era. 12.7 points per game on layups alone when he's contesting those shots.
That is a big number. Does that mean I hate Nicole Jokic, Denver? No, I love Nicole Jokic. I just think that it's it's a relevant data point at this part of the conversation. And with something I didn't see a lot of in that conversation, I want to point out some facts. And ultimately, as I've said elsewhere, you know, Denver's demise, the last three playoff runs have has been on that non glamorous end of the court.
They need to get stops to get further in the playoffs than they've gone the last few years. Two of the demises have been the skeleton crew nuggets losing to Phoenix and then to Golden State, teams who made the finals. So I just...
I'm just not going to read too much into that. What Phoenix, Phoenix slicing them apart defensively a couple of seasons ago was notable to me, but I I'm not, it's not that I'm writing those results off. It's that if it's, if it's the skeleton crew nuggets without Murray, sometimes without Porter, without whoever, like I just am not, I'm not reading too much into it. That was not one of my games of, of the weekend. I will say to your point about the MVP, it's, it's coming down to the wire and
And I think one of the reasons it's coming down to the wire is for reasons that make total sense, including valuing the regular season correctly, having a team that allows him to pace himself more than he has in the past. I think Jokic's defense has gotten worse this season. I was never a believer, and I've repeated on this podcast over and over, in the numbers that he is a good-to-elite defender. I've said he probably peaks out at average.
I think he's been significantly worse this season. And Embiid's offense has been meaningfully better. So whatever gap existed because of the respective gaps in their abilities on those ends of the floor has closed. And Giannis is just Giannis. He's just, you know, I think we all, he's almost unanimously considered the best player in the NBA. I don't know where I was going with that. Oh, my game of the weekend.
My game of Friday is, is wolves Lakers. Um, that was my second pick for Friday. Yeah. Great. Which is a huge game. Both teams are now in the play in tournament, eighth Minnesota, ninth Lakers. The wolves are 39 and 38. The Lakers are 38 and 38. And, uh, I do not believe I'm looking at up. Now the wolves already have the tiebreaker over the Lakers. The Lakers have the tiebreaker over the Pelicans and the thunder. And just in case the warriors, um,
It's a big one to me because I think the play-in has focused everyone on the sixth seed, the race for six, the race for 10 versus 11. And obviously there are all these individual races. We talked about the importance of the number one seed in the East.
I think a race that doesn't get enough attention because it's just a mess is the difference between eight and nine is just absolutely gigantic. And even if you're eight and you have to play that seven, eight game on the road, two shots instead of one shot, double elimination instead of single elimination is as big a seed-based difference as there is in the NBA. At home. At home. The second game being at home. Yeah. Yeah.
You got to all you got to do is win a home game. And I think we're not fluent enough and experienced enough with that playing bracket to get there. But you're exactly right. There should almost be a little dash line in the standings table. You know how we have these lines now between six and seven and 10 and 11. I think there should be a little dash line. Let me go on the record because that nine, 10 game is a nightmare. You lose. You're going home. Seven, eight game. You lose.
You're going home to play another game for a chance to go in. So all you have to do is win one home game if you're seven and eight. If you're nine and 10, you got to win two games, sometimes two road games if you're 10. So it is exactly right. And this this this Minnesota Lakers game is a big game for that exact reason. Zach, you're right.
Well, and you even hear people sometimes talk about the play as if 7's going to play 10 and 8's going to play 9. And it's like, we're still getting used to this. I just think, I mean, I already talked about the Wolves too. I'm so bummed about the Nazarite injury because he's just been sensational the entire year. And he's a delightful player to watch. He's so skilled with the ball. A mix of...
kind of finesse and power and shooting that you don't see in a lot of backup bigs. And they, and he's been so good that Chris Finch has leaned all the way in with cat back. Like just, we're not cutting his minutes. And if we have to play him with, if we have to play two centers, the entire game, we're going to do that.
And in the three games with Cat back, the numbers aren't great, but I thought they've looked good and looked smoother and looked less uncertain than they were in the first 10, 12 games of the season trying to figure out Cat and Rudy. Rudy's just been better the last 40 games than he was the first 40. I just have liked what I've seen from them overall. And the Nas injury is a bummer. The Lakers have essentially played one game
With their starting five of Russell, Reeves, LeBron, Vanderbilt, and Davis. It wasn't their Wednesday game against Chicago. By the way, Austin Reeves hitting Pat Beverly with the revenge too small was so funny on so many different levels. And I think the funniest thing about it was the Lakers were actually mad at Patrick Beverly. Like they were actually like,
As the kids would say in their feelings about Patrick Beverly and like they were sitting there waiting to rub Patrick Beverly's face in this. And it was Austin Reeves of all people about to make a gargantuan amount of money in free agency. Yeah. Hit him with the too small. Anyway, that was their first real game with that starting five. And it looked like they'd been playing together for six months. It was really smooth and it flowed really well. LeBron looked way more like LeBron.
In that game than he did in his return game. The LeBron AD pick and roll was back. AD had 38. He looked dominant. He even handled the ball in a couple of pick and rolls when he brought the ball up the floor. And that's always my tell for AD. Like, how is he feeling?
D'Lo kind of alternated between, okay, I'll run things now and then, and I'll be a spot up shooter while LeBron posts up and do this. Austin Reeves connected the dots. Vando's just kind of moving around, finding little spaces to not get in the way. Um,
I thought it looked great. And in 49 minutes, just, I'm sorry, in 69 minutes, just 69 with LeBron Vanderbilt and Davis. Now the Lakers are plus 49 in those 69 minutes. And if, if the Vanderbilt Davis spacing gets too cluttered, which is going to happen, I think they just, they haven't, none of the alternatives are like awesome. Like I'm not psyched about Troy Brown jr. Playing more, not psyched about Rui Hachimura playing more.
Not psyched about any of that, but I think they have enough to at least sort of when you have LeBron and Davis, like it just, and they're healthy and they look great that game. You can, you can kind of cobble it together. I think this team with that starting five and Beasley and Schroeder coming off the bench, along with the other guys we mentioned, I think they're kind of legitimately dangerous. And the if is always going to be, can LeBron and Davis stay healthy? Yeah.
Obviously, we all know that. There's no use really talking about it. I think if they do, I'm just not counting them out. I'm just not. You'd be an idiot to count them out. And again, the numbers we've seen all year with this team aren't who they are. Let me give you the stat that jumped off my page when I was doing my efficiency landscape graphic this morning. On the last 15 games,
Best defense in the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers. Well, it helps that they're plus a million from the foul line in every game, which is just like their free throw differential is... They showed it during the Bulls game. I was watching the Bulls broadcast because Stacey King makes me laugh. Yeah, great. And I mean that in a good way. Stacey King makes me laugh. He's funny. They flashed it up and it was like, I think it said, biggest free throw differential in league history. And there was just this pause...
And Stacey King was like, that's just insane. That's just insane. And I'm like, it's pretty insane. Well, you know, Darvin Ham comes from that school where you don't foul on defense. And you could conspiracy theory this too. I'm not mad. But, you know, they're a very physical team. I mean, these guys pressure the rim. You know, obviously their two Hall of Fame leaders are great players.
in the paint and very hard to defend when they have their mindset on getting to the basketball hoop, they're going to get fouled. And again, you know, the, the Bucks defensive philosophy with Bud, where Darvin comes from is like, Hey, let's play good defense without Fallon. That's, that's the sort of above board explanation for what's going on. And I, I generally agree. Like people will go bananas when they see this number, but,
They are a team on like the sons are a jump shooting team that never gets their last in shots at the rim. Like there's a price to be paid for that style. There are all sorts of benefits to it. There's a cost. And the Lakers are an old school bruising, physical, gigantic offensive rebounding, all of a team. Like they're going to get a lot of free throws. Yeah. And if you're playing, and as we talked about the Steven Adams thing is, is a big story still to me. If the, if the Lakers play the Grizzlies, let's say in the playoffs and that front line is thin in Memphis, it's,
Guess who fouls a lot? Jaron Jackson. The reason this works sometimes is Jaron Jackson gets a second foul three minutes into the first quarter, and all of a sudden they get the second unit Memphis front court. It's already thin. And there's a very big virtue to drawing fouls on one end and not fouling on the other end. And this team is so maddening.
because we talk about him way too much for six months. And then all of a sudden... I disagree. People hate that. People hate talking about it. Like, I'm sorry that maybe the greatest player of all time and his Twilight plays for the franchise that has tied for the most championships of all time. Like, I'm sorry that we talk about the Lakers more than...
The Hawks. Like, it's just, it's just, I'm sorry to like, I, we do talk about them too much, but I think it's probably like 10% too much and not 80% too much. Yeah, that's fair. And LeBron is still one of my favorite players to watch when he's actually out there.
made the finals. I don't know if you remember this, Zach, eight years in a row. Like he's the biggest reason to say this team is scary. Let's not lose sight of that. This guy has been to the finals X out of the last X years. And when this Lakers team is healthy, I love the new look Lakers, particularly on defense. And don't forget when they want it all in the bubble, they're
It was a defensive championship. It was a defensive championship. And what I've seen him, even without LeBron in the last few weeks, is they're rounding into defensive form just in time to upset somebody in the first round if they get through that play-in turn.
um what's your saturday do you have a saturday there's only two choices other than the final four well saturday is interesting one of them suddenly like a clunker right like i think saturday dallas miami i'm not picking that i don't like watching either of those teams right now it's sad hold on the other game hold on though hold on now that could be depending on some of friday's results including the nets hawks game which is just tonight uh
And the Thunder Pacers game, if the Pacers somehow beat the Thunder. And either way, really, talk about two teams who need to play with some freaking urgency. Yeah. Like, that's going to be...
an all out desperation bowl between the heat and, and I, people are gonna say, well, why are they so desperate? They're desperate because they want to cinch at the seventh seed. I mean, that's where all the focus on, well, the old boy, are they not going to be able to get the six seed? Like the Hawks and the Raptors are only a game back of them in the last column. As of now, the Raptors play in Philly tonight. That's my game of the night for tonight. I'm excited for that one. The Hawks has mentioned played the nets and the,
Miami has only the Hawks tiebreaker. They don't have the Raptors tiebreaker. They don't have the Nets tiebreaker. So that's a big game for them. And Dallas, I've spent enough time talking about Dallas this weekend. That is an urgent, urgent game for them.
Yeah, I mean, Dallas, Miami, they have a really, it's one of my sort of weird favorite rivalries that has emerged in the 20th century or 21st century for obvious reasons. But yeah, Dallas needs a win. Miami, I think is pretty much the best they can get is seven. Maybe there's a case that they somehow get back into six, but they want those home games in the play-in if they're seven. But the other game on Saturday night, Zach, is the Clippers-
At the Pelicans, the Pelicans are playing pretty well.
The Clippers don't have Paul George. And again, this log jam in the West is where my, I'm going to over-index on watching league passing from the four to the 11 seed for these next five games for all these teams, because you have so much to learn about them. And there's so much at stake for these seating, staying out of the play and getting home court in the plan. These are all big games. And that Clippers New Orleans game is the one I have circled for Saturday. Yeah.
The Heat are, according to Basketball Reference and a site I use called PlayoffStatus.com, which is super useful. It's got color coding for all the tiebreakers. It saves me a million hours every spring. The Heat are like 80% to 85% locked into seven. Both of those sites have the Heat as like an 80% chance at landing in seven and a higher –
chance of landing eight than six. So just, they just need to avoid backsliding to the point that they lose home court in that first seven, eight game or worse in Dallas. We all know where Dallas is. What's your Sunday game?
My Sunday game, and there's a ton of them, by the way, so don't get mad if I don't pick the one you have. But I got to see, again, it's Denver who has a lot to prove, and it's the Golden State Warriors who have a lot to prove on the road. And depending on the result of that game, I think I'm going to take away a big opinion on both of these teams going into the playoffs, assuming...
we have a relatively full strength set of players on both sides so golden state's playing denver last game of the night on nba tv uh and you know can golden state get a big road game against uh the top seed in the west and really sort of get some momentum into the playoffs or can denver say hey guys we're the number one seed nice nice job last year but we're the top dog in the west so i'm sort of watching that game yeah golden state is holding on to sixth
Boy, if you gave them all truth serum right now, I think they would say, if we could just stay right in six. Draymond kind of said it. But then he was like, that's just so I don't have to travel very far. I want to play Sacramento. That's kind of true, too. If somebody's been on those trips, Sacramento is 90 minutes away from the Chase Center.
Their schedule in the last five games, they have San Antonio tonight. Better win that one. At Denver, the game you're spotlighting. Home against Oklahoma City, which is going to be a huge game potentially, particularly for the Thunder, who are in 10th. At Sacramento, we'll see how much the Kings go for that game.
And that's always the plot twist late in the season, right? You get these on paper. It's like, oh, we play Boston in the finale or Milwaukee in the finale. Well, that's horrible. It could end up being the B team and the C team. And then they finish at Portland. So at minimum, they should beat San Antonio and Portland. And that gets them...
42 wins, guaranteeing them 42 and 40 at worst. They win one of those other three middle games, Denver, Oklahoma, Sacramento. They're at 43 and 39. They should be safe at that point to be in the top six with all these other teams behind them already having 38 losses. So the Warriors are in pretty good shape with those two tankerific teams bookending their last five games. My game of the day Sunday is Oklahoma city Phoenix. Um,
because again oklahoma city is standing right in the way oklahoma city and dallas are polar opposites this is all gravy for the thunder if they get in awesome if they don't get in you know at this point it would be disappointing they're so close but you know hey we get into the lottery you know we have this pick swap with the clippers if that comes into play so be it probably won't um
we're all young. We're good. Dallas is like, if we don't get in to the play in, it's a complete disaster. And they're the, the, the thunder have the tiebreaker over Dallas head to head. So they have that edge going for them too.
and I just think it would be a cool story if they got in. So I'm watching that game. The future is bright there, no matter what happens in these last five games. I think I saw some people from the Thunder front office this weekend, and I was like, man, you guys are set up pretty good long-term. What a time horizon they have. So we're going to talk about a couple of awards now, and we're going to mostly focus on defensive awards. You mentioned Jaron Jackson Jr. before. He's in Penn on a lot of ballots as Defensive Player of the Year.
I don't want to talk too much about defensive player of the year, and this is not even why I'm talking about awards right now, but I meant to say it when you brought him up. I think he is, per minute, the best defensive player in basketball. You mentioned his fouling issues, and he fouled out of another game the other day. Now, it was the last second, but he ended up only playing 26 minutes, I think. At what point for defensive player of the year does it begin to matter that Jaron Jackson Jr., due to missing the first dozen games or whatever it was with injury and fouling incessantly, has played...
between 500 and 800 fewer minutes than other candidates for this award. I think for me, it's at the point that it matters. I don't know if I'm going to vote for him for defensive player of the year. He's probably a lock for first team all defense. But the minutes thing, I don't know if people care about it less for these awards than they do for MVP.
I care about it a little bit less for all NBA, particularly third team all NBA than I do for the of year awards. I think we're at the minutes thing is going to matter to me on my ballot.
Yeah, I think it's a referendum on that. And one of the stats that I've been monitoring all year for a variety of reasons is like the volume rim protectors. And if you just look at field goal percentage allowed on layups this season out of the top, like 26 guys who defended 400, Nikola Jokic is the least efficient. 66% of those layups are going in. We already talked about that.
Jaron Jackson is the anti-Jokic there. This dude is holding opponents to 44% of their layup, Zach. I mean, to say that he's a disruptive rim protector. He's like a horror movie villain. He's not even near you. And all of a sudden, like he's in your face, throwing your shot through the backboard. Like he's where the hell he come from.
The key thing, though, in my opinion, is, yeah, he's sending people to the free throw line a lot. That's a big deal. But who's second on this layup and rim protection list? None other than the more dependable, less foul happy Brooke Lopez. Defensive player of the year, in my opinion, is a two man race. Brooke Lopez and Jaron Jackson Jr. And it's going to come down to whether voters like you really or how much voters like you
sort of factor in this foul issue, sending players to the free throw line, screwing up the Grizzlies rotations with sort of premature bench stints because he's in foul trouble. Brooke Lopez is sitting there as a very viable candidate for this award with great rim protection numbers without those sort of warts that Jaron brings to the table.
I think there are more than two candidates for defensive player of the year. No, here we go. Marcus Smart all over again. No, you're talking to someone who did not have Marcus Smart in the top three last year. I love Marcus Smart. I think he's incredible. He's the first or second team all defensive player every year. I just didn't think I footed for Bam Adebayo last year. And I think I had Jaron Jackson second or third. And I don't remember who else was on my ballot, but it was not Marcus Smart.
I just think there are more than two candidates. I just do. I'm not mad. I have other players here too, but my theory, my personal beliefs, just like the Heisman Trophy goes to a quarterback 89, 95% of the time, something like that, a center slash rim protector is...
best rebounder figure should win this award nearly every year. And that's why I was teasing you about Marcus. I don't even think he was the most impactful defensive player on his own team last year. I know he's a great defender, probably deserves to be all defense most years recently. But yeah, are you going to tell me Claxton? Who else do you have on your list? I like Claxton. I think Claxton is a candidate for one of the all defense teams. Who has the best defense in the NBA right now?
I think it's Milwaukee or Cleveland. One of those two. Pretty sure it's Cleveland. Well, if you're about to talk about Austin's own, the best player in the history of Austin, Texas, in the Longhorn great, Jared Allen, I'm not mad at you. I'm not talking about Jared Allen. There's another choice there, too. I understand that. I haven't ruled out Bam.
Think Bam's had an underrated season? Hold on. The defensive rating, I don't know if it's fair to hang this on Bam. It's not. But they are plummeting to 28th over the last 15 games. That's something I'm watching. I love Bam. Let me ask you this. I don't think this is the year for him. Let me ask you this. I just haven't ruled him out. I'm likely not going to vote for him. Let me ask you this. Are you sure Brooke Lopez is the best defensive player on the Bucs?
No. In fact, I've lobbied that Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best defensive player in the world. So why is it a two-man race for Defensive Player of the Year? That's sort of what I've read a lot. I think that Giannis should always be in consideration for this award because of what he does all over the scoring area on the defensive side as a defensive rebounder, as a help rim protector defensively.
I'm not mad at anybody who wants to add Giannis into that conversation. I was sort of more reflecting what I'm hearing out there in the quote unquote discourse, Zach. The hashtag discourse. The reason I brought all this up was because I was listening to my friends, Bill Simmons and Ryan Russillo the other day. I've heard those guys. And they were, love those guys. And they were saying, and I mean that, I'm not being facetious there. I just is full on fandom. Um,
They were, and Rusulo was the tip of the spear on this, was they were arguing that the idea that Rookie of the Year has cracked open for Jalen Williams was borderline preposterous. And the result of voters kind of being bored that Paolo Bancaro had just locked this up over two months and kind of overthinking it. And it was just silly. It was silly. And I...
I disagree. I don't think it's silly. I think the analytics-based movement for Walker Kessler to win Rookie of the Year is a little bit silly. Like, I just can't get behind a 12% usage rate in such a limited role offensively. He's been outstanding. He's a stone-cold block for first-team all-rookie. And I understand that Paolo Bancaro has...
a bigger role on offense, on a bad team, a rebuilding team. He's the number one option on a rebuilding team. That's going to chip away at your efficiency. And I think he's at 42% from the field or 43%, 29% from three. I understand the burden, the responsibility, the defensive attention, all of it. I understand that Jalen Williams got off to a slower start than Paolo Bancaro. He's averaging 10 points a game for the first two months of the season. He's up to like 14 and change for the season. And...
His efficiency is just miles ahead of where Bankero is as a shooter. Threes, twos, all of it. I understand Orlando fans. He's not the number one option on the Thunder. The Thunder have a number one option who's averaging 31 points a game and may make first team all NBA. I get it. He's kind of a co-number two option with Josh Giddey. Sometimes Josh Giddey is above him in the ball handling hierarchy. Sometimes not.
But Jalen Williams surging to the end of the year like this in games that matter, scoring 33 points or 31 points or whatever he had the other day when they snuck out a win on a Jalen Williams buzzer beater without Shea. Like the points gap is still there and it's medium sized, but it's closed. The efficiency gap is big. And I think Jalen Williams kind of fits, you know, if Walker Kessler is on one end of the offensive responsibility continuum and
And Bankaro is at the other extreme. I think Jalen Williams is like 60% of the way toward Bankaro in terms of offensive responsibility. He's in between and moving closer to Bankaro every game. Defensively, he's better. As a passer, he's probably a little bit better. I just say I haven't decided. I have not decided who I am voting for. But I don't think it's like I just see it framed in the Orlando media in particular that
as like stupid that you would vote for Jalen Williams. I don't think it's stupid. Like if I end up voting for Van Carrow and you vote for Jalen Williams and be like, yeah, I get it. Like, I don't think it's stupid.
It's not stupid. And, you know, one of the stats with Jalen is he's shooting 46% from three since the All-Star break, 40% from three since January 1st. His scoring, as you mentioned, is creeping and creeping up. There's a world where he passes, Paolo, at least in the post-All-Star break segment in terms of scoring. You know, the joke is if it were rookie of the spring, I'm giving it to Jalen Williams. You know, but it's rookie of the year. And I think Paolo did enough
In the early stages, that's probably what Ryan Rosillo and our friend Bill Simmons were talking about. It's like, yeah, unfortunately, it's Rookie of the Year. And the inconvenient truth is they were playing in October, November, and December as well. That said, if there was an award for best draft pick of the year,
It's Jalen Williams. Like they, they got him later and he's in contention. That's a huge win. He's a huge reason why the future is so bright in Oklahoma city. And, and it's been a treat to watch him. The other thing I'd say the case for him is he's playing meaningful minutes, scoring meaningful buckets for a meaningful team at this stretch of the season. And if that matters to some voters, I'm not mad. If you're playing for an Orlando team that, that doesn't win very often and you're shooting, you know,
which is a normal thing for a volume score as a rookie. I'm not mad. LeBron James is a famous example of that. It's part of the growth curve. I do think it's Powell's award, but Jalen Williams has made it interesting down the stretch, Zach. I think that's fair to look back at the beginning of the season and say you can't forget that. You can't forget that. You can't make up your mind early, and you can't make up your mind just based on what you've seen recently. Both of those things are bad.
I will say I'd rather just, this has nothing to do with rookie of the year. I'd rather, you know, whenever someone is trending up toward the end of the year, you, you are reminded by analytical folks correctly that, well, what they did at the beginning of the year matters too. You can't just like forget the bad stuff that they were doing at the beginning of the year. It all is part of it. And they could go right back into that trough. All in all, I'd rather have a player trending up than trending down. I'd rather have a player better at the end of the year than he was at the beginning. Yeah.
All defense. Let's talk about all defense for a bit because this is going to be an absolute beast of an award. You only get 10 slots. You only get 10 slots. Let's just quickly go through some of your forward spots. I mean, these are guys who are eligible to forward. These are all guys who are eligible to forward. Mikael Bridges, Evan Mobley, Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard, Jared Vanderbilt,
Jaron Jackson Jr., Bam Adebayo is obviously going to be eligible at center, and Jaron Jackson Jr. will too. Giannis, Jimmy Butler, Jaden McDaniels, OGN, and OB.
I got four forward slots, man. That's like, what am I doing? I mean, there's, that's the hardest position. I was just looking at this too. Center's never easy. Guard is, is, is sort of the harder one to, to get the right four for a different reason, but there's so many great candidates. You want a third team now, right? I'm guessing for forwards, at least you could easily get to six. I don't want a third team. It's just, it's just hard. Hey,
Nobody's going to stare at my ballot and get mad at me because I don't have one. Herb Jones didn't even mention Herb Jones. Herb Jones for 100%. Aaron Gordon. Look at the Pelicans right now. I mean, like, these are guys who, like, it's going to be – Dorian Finney-Smith, it's going to be tough to even, like, give him a mention. Are you a Jaden McDaniels guy? I mentioned him. He's on my short list. He's on my short, short, short, short, short list. My point is there's going to be forwards who in a normal year I think would be walking away with a first or second team nod that are not going to get it this year.
And I think it's disproportionately affecting that positional group. And I think that's interesting. And,
Giannis is number one, right? Okay, I have one forward slot. That's going to Giannis for the reasons we mentioned. Best defensive player arguably in the world. Most versatile. Great rebounder. What if I want Jaron Jackson Jr. and Lopez both on the first team? Yeah, that's the move, right? Because Jaron played four a lot with Steven. He starts at the four. That's not cheating. That's not cheating. He starts at the four. And even with Adams injured, they've been playing Tillman at the five. Now, sometimes they'll flip who guards who, but...
Jaron Jackson Jr. is more, at least as much forward to me as center. Well, that's my front court. Okay. And I don't have to do this. You have to do it. So my front court is Brooke, Jaron, and Giannis. Okay. You're going to have to convince me that that's not the right answer. There is some very good defense.
that could convince me. But that's when I did my homework for you. That's what I came up with in the frontcourt. Those three dudes. Great defenders on top defenses. I was hoping the league would let us cheat and have Ananobi eligible at guard and forward. Because he does kind of guard everybody. I realize that he's obviously a forward and he actually guards up in size more than down. They did not. He's only eligible at forward. So...
Yeah, that's always silly. I mean, it's just increasingly every year we talk about this, it's just sillier and sillier. The murkiness on the wings and that there's some players that can get across to positional groups and some that can. It's just weird to me. But I do think Ananobi, you know, who was the frontrunner for defensive player of the year probably for the first 20, 30 games of the season. I do think he's probably been better on balance defensively than...
Bridges. I mean, even Draymond. How can you not have Draymond on? It's crazy. Kawhi hasn't played enough games. The road defense for Golden State, and I think Draymond would admit this, has not been good enough. And he takes responsibility for that defensive ability. Maybe he takes too much responsibility for it, but the defensive numbers of that team on the road this year are a big reason why they're still fighting for a sixth seed. Any surprises in your guards'
It's the hardest thing analytically to really look at to this day. No surprises. That's kind of why it's the most fun.
Because you know that there's people who are going to say some crazy stuff. No, just because it's not one of those ones where you can look at a number and be like, well, that's open and shut. That guy's shooting that, and that means something to me. The defensive numbers, no matter which ones you look at, how much is that actually? Where are you on the Pat Bev? Where are you on the too small Pat Beverly? I think he's a lightning rod in this year's discussion. Multiple teams. I don't have him on my... I have him behind...
Among guards, I have him behind Derek White, Paul George, Drew Holiday, and Alex Caruso at least, and probably Smart too. I'm not mad at any of that. Drew Holiday, Marcus Smart at the beginning of the year would have been who I would have penciled in in these positions, and there's some good names there. Pat Bev is just – if there was a loudest defender of the year, he's definitely first team.
Yeah, those are my guards. Lugensdort is going to get a look there too. And there are others. My initial lists are...
are quite long, but those are the, those are the headliners to me. And I do, I do think I checked earlier today. I think Paul George is eligible to go forward and guard. I think he's been outstanding defensively all year, um, as, as he normally is. But I think this year more than others, even he's kind of stood out to me, Dylan Brooks, we should probably mention is he figured about, you figured about loudest. That's right. Defender. Yeah. He's got to be in the, the discourse. Uh, is, is there anything else we didn't hit Mr. Goldsberry? Uh,
No, I mean, I think we hit it all. I can't wait to see how this shakes out. And I'm already nervous, Zach, to make my Western Conference first round playoff predictions for our website. Don't be nervous. Don't be nervous. People get things wrong all the time. It happens. Kirk Goldsberry, what else? What else?
What else we got looking? What are we looking for from you? The Jokic piece was my big swing. I'm sorry, Denver. I hope it comes across as respectful. That's what and then I'm working on like sort of who are the active leaders in all NBA and these kinds of awards sort of to look across the last 10 years and say who's got the most of what in terms of these awards that we just went through and sort of give some shine for guys who have been doing it for a long time.
Oh, but that's not coming for a minute. Other than that, just play off preview stuff. All right, sir.
It's good to see you. Oh, last thing, last thing. I know you love UConn women's hoops. I do. Do you love UConn men's hoops? Do you have a Final Four horse? Are you interested in the outcome in Houston this weekend? I got no horse, and it's a controversy. UConn men's hoops is a lightning rod topic for me because I grew up in Connecticut, but UConn wasn't good when I was a little kid, and so everyone had their own teams that they liked for various reasons. I was a Georgetown fan.
Cause we had family friends that went to Georgetown and I thought Georgetown was cool. You know, Hoya destroy the full court press, all of it. Um,
And so then when UConn got good, a lot of people jumped on the bandwagon. It's our home state team, et cetera. I just, I didn't even like six year old. Me was like eight year old. Me. It was like, I don't feel, I don't feel comfortable jumping on the bandwagon. I'm sticking with Georgetown. And then they became rivals and the Ray Allen shot happened in Iverson's year. One of the Iverson's years there. I can't get into it. There's the stat about UConn that I didn't know was if they win this year, there's five championships for UConn Huskies in the last 24 years. That's,
It's a lot of titles. They've resurrected that program. So it's going to be interesting. But anyway, wanted to throw that out there. My beloved Longhorns got eliminated by the Miami Hurricanes last weekend, unfortunately. But they had a good run, too. So good luck to all the programs. Good luck to all the programs and the student athletes and all of it. Kirk Goldsberry, indispensable work. Thank you, sir. I'll see you in the postseason. Thank you, Zach.