Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast on a Monday evening on the East Coast where I have to announce I'm going to finally do it. Going to dip my toe, with all due respect to the podfather Bill Simmons, we're going to dip my toe into NBA win total over-unders. The gambling monster has eaten me, although I do not gamble on sports, cannot gamble on sports, would not condone gambling on sports. It's just too fun, and in my defense, Mr. Simmons, my old boss, I think I'm the last person
NBA podcast to embrace the NBA over-unders gimmick. We're not going to do all 30 teams here. We're just going to do a sampling. We're just going to do a sampling with Kevin Pelton of ESPN. How are you, sir? I'm doing well. Welcome to the gambling space, Zach.
You know, it's actually fun. You know, when you embrace a new activity, I shouldn't say that. You know, when you embrace the idea of a new activity or a new realm of knowledge and all the things that people take for granted about it are like really brand new and appealing and exciting to use. So that's me. I'm like a kid in a candy store. I'm looking at these over underlines. I'm like, whoa, wow.
These are tough. Vegas does a pretty good job setting these lines. Like there were only about six or seven that I was just like, boom, boom, boom, done, done, done. The rest are varying degrees of difficult because I guess, Kevin, it turns out they know how to make money there. They're smart about making money and suckering people into forking over their money. Now imagine how difficult they're going to seem when you go back at the end of the season and look at your results.
I don't plan on doing that, and I discourage all listeners from doing that. Mr. Pelton, I said let's do our five most difficult decisions and five easiest decisions rather than going rapid fire through all 30 teams, which would take us four hours, and see if there's overlap and sort of go through those decisions. And because I'm a generous host, I will let you lead. So let's start with the most difficult ones because those are more fun. The easy ones will just hammer at the end.
Pick any of your five most difficult. I don't know if you ranked them. I don't know if there's one you really want to talk about, but I will leave to you. We'll see how much we overlap. Give me one of your most difficult wrenching over under non-bet decisions. We'll start with the Celtics under 53 and a half.
Because this is actually one of the rare ones where I'm going against my projections at the top end. Because usually one of the things that people comment on, we released my win projections for the NBA last season, as you discussed on the pod last week with Howard Beck. And usually people are surprised at how sort of compact they are, how close they are to 500. And one of the things I discovered researching this pod is actually NBA over-under totals are not compact enough.
So if you look at the teams that have totals of 50 wins or higher since 2005-06, that's when I have this data, 57% of those have gone under. And at the other end, if you look at 25 wins or fewer, the teams that everyone expects to be really awful, 75%.
70% of those have gone over. So because of the fact that people want to imagine the standings at the start of the season, the projections at the start of the season, looking like they know the standings are going to look at the end of the season, they tend to think that there's going to be more, expect more of a split between the best and worst teams than we should predict because we don't necessarily know which of the bad teams are going to be those worst teams and vice versa.
In other words, it's hard to be truly great in the NBA and truly horrible in the NBA. And if you look at the teams that may have ambitions of being truly horrible to chase Wemby and Scoot, a disproportionate number of them are in the West this season, which means there are fewer sort of easy gimme wins in the East. Boston was on my list too, which surprised me, even though the line is really high at 53.5%.
because they had this kind of ragged postseason run, right? Like seven games against the Bucs without Middleton, seven games against the Heat who were limping almost across the board.
offense sort of falling apart gradually game by game by game into a turnover aimless bad shot machine peaking against the Warriors after game three but they just couldn't figure anything out they just sort of wilt and yet I you know you know this too what they did in the last 50 games of the regular season was just so utterly dominant that it was very easy to see them with Brogdon with Gallinari and then even without Gallinari once he got hurt being a 60 win team even in a really strong East and
And then, of course, the hits start to come. The coaching crisis with Imei Odoka being suspended for a year. That has to have some effect. I just don't believe it has no effect. As strong and cohesive and tough, as much shared experience as the core guys have here. Even guys like Derek White, Malcolm Brogdon, guys who are relative newbies. Those guys are tough. They're tested. They're steely. It has to have some effect. And then Robert Williams III.
Missing anywhere from probably 15 to 30-ish games with another knee surgery. The pillar, I think, at least the most important interior pillar of what was a historically great defense that flipped to historically great the moment that Imei Udoka...
said, okay, we're taking you out of pick and roll action. We're going to have you guard the worst corner shooter wing guy on the other team. You're just going to be a rover. You're just going to demolish the rim, impale people at the rim. We're going to switch everything else. That was built around him. Obviously, they have guys who can step up. I think Sam Houser's ready. Grant Williams in their first preseason game was like running pick and roll and doing stuff he wasn't doing last year. Like, they have some depth, but...
I struggled with it more than I thought because there seems to be this creeping back, not to the mean, but to that line for Boston. And I went, actually, I picked them under and put 52 wins as my placeholder. I also went under. And so we were together in L.A. two weeks ago. I said at that point I was leaning towards Boston as my title pick.
That was true after Gallo was injured and was lost for the season. It was still true. I think that was about when we found out that Robert Williams III was going to have that knee surgery. Like, okay, it's the start of the season. It's not a big deal. But that was before the Emea Doca news broke. And that's what pushed me to the uncertainty here is just a little bit too great for me to be as confident in them as my projections are. 54-28 is completely doable for Boston. Yeah.
This is not one, as evidenced by it's on my toughest list, not one that I would fake bet on ever. It would be – I'm a wimp, Kevin. If it were actually my own money, I would bet only on the ones that I was like ultra confident and stay away from everything else like the plague. It wouldn't surprise me if they got to 57 and 25. 60 would surprise me and 50 – I mean every team is sort of one injury away from –
five wins below expectations Boston has already taken a big injury maybe two if you count Gallinari who was never really there just seems like there are a little bit more scenarios where they go slightly disappointing than they are supernova 55 plus win team but great team and I still think they're right in the thick of the title pick and as we talked about on those podcasts you mentioned a couple weeks ago I did and still am picking the Bucks to win the championship this year and and as it
we can just spoil that one now. That was an easy over for me at 52 and a half, despite of everything you're going to say about health and the bench is a little old and they'll take the regular season easily. They were, I'm going over 52 and a half. I think Giannis is coming to kill everybody this year. So that was an over for me. I went under on them for the reasons you just explained that I was going to say. I think I'm leaning towards them as my title pick. I think they're going to be
an awesome playoff team, but they were under this last year. I think they're probably a bit deeper than they were last year, but also the health at the top end of the roster during the regular season was pretty good, and they're already coming into it with Chris Middleton coming off of
you know, an injury. So I, I lean towards, there's just going to be a few too many missed games from the holiday Middleton Giannis trio to, to get them to 53 wins. This is why I don't, I don't bet on things because you've already dissuaded me. That's how easily dissuadable I am. Middleton. I think I've heard he's going to be back fairly early in the season. It's not going to be a prolonged absence. So that made me optimistic, but yeah, I don't care either way. They're my pick to win the championship. Not emphatically. I think there are six to seven teams that could claim, um,
Oh, boy.
I mean, look, if the, if Australian teams are going to come in here and shoot the lights out against Phoenix, you might as well just bet them to be under 500. Okay. KP, go to another one of your five hardest, hardest over-unders now that the Celtics are done. LA Clippers, 52 and a half.
I think just because of the question of, we've talked a lot about, you know, how many games are we going to see Anthony Davis and LeBron James and what that says about the Lakers floor for this upcoming season. Haven't necessarily had as much of that same conversation about the Clippers in part because a, they're in a territory where if they finish three or four games under their expectations, that's not as big of a deal. Maybe they're the, you know, the fifth or the sixth seat or something like that. That's fine. But,
But as deep as they are, that's the other reason probably we haven't had this conversation is that they go 11, 12 deep in NBA rotation caliber players, which is why I'm seriously considering picking them to win the championship as I know you have as well. So,
But those guys, as good as they are, we saw last season when Paul George was out of the lineup, they were 24 and 27 because they just didn't have that offense creation. So the questions are twofold to me. Number one is how much of Paul George and Kawhi do you have on the court at all times to do that?
And then number two, can John Wall be that guy alongside their raft of very, very good players on the wings that are going to be largely interchangeable? And we haven't seen John Wall in a long period of time. I'm scheduled to see the Clippers tonight here in Seattle. And it'll be, from what we know, the return for both Kawhi and John Wall. And I'm very excited to see how those two guys look. Yeah, look,
The Clippers have the obvious how much are they going to care about the regular season, how much are Kawhi and PG going to play. As you alluded to, I am very high on the Clippers. I think right now if I had to pick a finals, I'm rummaging to get my Clippers notes out. I'm an old school paper guy. I got paper notes. I would probably pick a Bucs-Clippers finals. I don't feel great about – I feel less great about the Clippers side of that because I think the Warriors are going to be awesome and the Nuggets are going to be awesome and there's going to be other teams in the West that are awesome.
And despite all that, I just look back at the Clippers history. This is year four of Kawhi and PG, and they've never...
had a season where they played like 70 games or the equivalent of 70 games each. Like that's just not going to happen. And even in seasons where they've played like 55 to 60 each or that equivalent percentage of an 82 game season, they have won at a pace that is higher than this 52 and a half line. And I just think with their depth, which now includes like Norm Powell,
can be the good a good secondary engine of offense on nights when one of those two guys rests now both of them rest it's a whole different story um and they're just loaded with depth i think they want to go all in on playing five out basketball uh it obviously they have zubats is going to start and play 24 minutes a game whatever he ends up playing they're just loaded with guys who can play that way i've talked a lot about how i think john wall's a great fit um
for that system. So they were not one of my hard ones. They were not one of my easy ones either, but I did go over and put 53 wins. And by the way, the way I did this, I did this, what I think is properly, I didn't just go like over, under, over, under. I made sure I had an equal number of split almost between overs and unders. I had 16 overs, 14 unders. And then I kind of put a placeholder amount of wins in based on whether I went over or under. And
With the idea that I wanted to be right at or within two or three wins of 1,230, 1,230, which is the total number of wins in the NBA, and I was right there. So I went a little bit over for the Clippers. Understand why you would be cautious, but –
That's my Clippers thoughts. We don't even know who their starting five is going to be. I mean, I think I have a good idea who it's going to be. And I don't really even care other than the two guys. And that's it, really. Right. I mean, I think the most interesting thing about the Clippers rotation, you mentioned them going all in on these smaller lineups.
Moses Brown, I think, has a good chance to make this team. He started their first preseason game the other night with Vita Zubac out, was ahead of Musa Diabate, who they picked in the second round, who's on a two-way. So I think he's probably going to make the team, and he's got a chance to play a little. And if he does, probably very productive in a similar role, different skill set, but similar role to what Isaiah Hartenstein played last season for them. Don't you dare compare any backup setter to Isaiah Hartenstein. Fair, fair.
Don't you dare. By the way, I'm over on the Knicks 39.5. I'm over on them too. Speaking of Isaiah Hartenstein. I think the Knicks are going to be solid this year. Everyone's laughing at my Knicks optimism. I think this reeks of a...
Like Tibbs team revival defense season. Like the Tibbs defense revives. They're roaring around. They're trying hard. They're coming off a disappointing season. Jalen Brunson is going to help. They have 9,000 lefties. Maybe that's helpful. Maybe it's like counterproductive and they all bump into each other on the right side of the floor. I don't know. But it just feels like a 10 deep tough Tibbs team. And he's still starting Evan Fournier.
Didn't listen to me. Didn't listen to Ian Begley. Didn't listen to the fans. Didn't listen to the front office that deemed Quentin Grimes an untouchable. Start Quentin Grimes over on the Knicks. I don't even know what the hell I was saying about the Clippers, Kevin. I don't know. Oh, Moses Brown. Moses Brown is going to be Hassan Whiteside 2.0 where he like leads the league in player efficiency rating and everyone's like, is he good? How is his PER 34.5? How is he getting 9 million offensive rebounds per minute? He
He'll either make the team and or they will get a backup center ring chaser somewhere down the line. They're not going into the playoffs with Zoo as the only true center on the team. Yep. Okay, give me another one. All right, we've done two at the top. Let's do... Yeah, let's get away from the top. I'm disappointed with these early picks, even though I also had Boston. Orlando at 26 and a half, and I ended up going over on this one in part because...
Number one, I mean, I think that there's just, you know, there's a decent amount of talent here. Markel Fultz played pretty well after he came back mid-season last year. Now he's dealing, I believe, with a toe injury. But, you know, he is a competent veteran that they add to the mix. And then the other element of it is, I think there's going to be a little less motivated to tank than some of these other teams. They already have the number one pick in Paolo Bancaro. And as you've mentioned on the pod,
They've got this top four protected pick coming from the Chicago Bulls that might not be too bad this season. You are playing to the host in this case, not the audience, because you know, the American people know, the international fans of the Low Post podcast know, in Germany in particular, Kevin Clark of the Ringer knows, I just can't resist talking about the Orlando Magic. I just can't. And you just, I like the slogan, you just inadvertently...
You would inadvertently pitch for the 2022-2023 Orlando Magic. There's actually some decent talent here. Come on down to the Amway Center.
Great seats are still available. 26 and a half was the line in Kevin Felton. You're damn right I went over. 28 and 54 for the Orlando Magic. I am a Franz Wagner believer. When they played Franz and Wendell Carter Jr. without another center like Mo Bamba next to Wendell Carter Jr., they were plus a lot. I don't have the numbers in front of me because I don't care enough. It was plus a lot, like seven or eight per 100 possessions.
They still don't have a lead guard who can really, really, truly break down an elite half-court defense, which is why I thought they should have been a long-shot Donovan Mitchell trade. There ended up being no noise about them even sniffing around Donovan Mitchell. Fine, okay, whatever. Play it cautious for the 19th straight year. Cool, fine.
But Bankero looms as the potential mini solution to that problem as the offensive hub, the offensive centerpiece, the offense first number one guy, whether he's ready for that role now or later or whatever, that this franchise has been begging for along this Joe DiMaggio level streak of being 20th or worse in offensive efficiency every goddamn year since Dwight Howard left. I am going over. I believe in Wagner and what he showed.
In Eurobasket, I think we'll see what the Terrence Ross, Gary Harris stuff ends up being if those guys come off the bench, if they're traded down the line. Isaac, Jonathan Isaac is doing things on a basketball court again. Suggs is going to have a bounce back here because he can't bounce down. He's going to bounce up.
And like you said, I think they're going to try. Despite their kind of caution as a front office, I do think they are under some pressure to actually show some progress this year. So I think they're going to try. I think they're going to go all out. And between them and the Pistons, who are on my list, I think one of those teams, if not both, are going to find their way into the back, back, back end of the play-in race, maybe with like 15 games left in the season. And if you told me right now, I'd actually like your opinion on this.
I think one of those teams is going to finish ahead of Washington or Charlotte. And they're way below them in the over-unders and way below them in preseason expectations and projections. But I just think they're both going to try. And so I'm over on Orlando. 28-54, baby. Let's go. Yeah, Detroit was another interesting one because of the fact that
They actually had the lowest win projection of any team in my projections. And that I don't think matches with the conventional wisdom that they are the team of this group that was in the top four of the lottery last year. That's closest to contending because of how well they played at the end of last season, building around kid Cunningham. And then the fact that they went out and added a bunch of vets, you know, Alec Berkson, New Orleans, Noel in a salary motivated deal with the Knicks, but,
Boyan Bogdanovich in a deal that ostensibly, I think it made sense for them as possibly just an asset play since they got Bogdanovich so cheap and they can flip him at the deadline. But they presumably got him because they think he can help them win basketball games and develop their talent right now. So that's the team I think people are thinking of like this. And I'm more inclined to pick Orlando of those two teams. That's fine. So Detroit, we might as well do Detroit now because Detroit was on my hardest list. 29 and a half.
29.5. So you're betting on them to go 30-52. I think they won 20 games last year. I mean...
I really wanted to. Part of my optimism in Detroit relative to those projections is I just buy Cade Cunningham. And you can read all this stuff about how Cade Cunningham was really inefficient for a top, a number one pick, really inefficient compared to other sort of draft picks of that pedigree and level. And I just don't care because I know how he trended as the season went on.
I know what he looks like when he plays, and he's exactly the ingredient that I said Orlando has been missing all these years. A guard, a point forward, a point whatever you want to call him, who can break down top-level defenses. And if you surround him with Sadiq Bae,
I think we'll turn into a good shooter. He's a pretty good shooter. He's been up and down. Needs to kick the Carmelo Anthony stuff that he was doing at the end of last year. Bogdanovich is a great shooter. Isaiah Stewart, we'll see. I keep hearing about the Isaiah Stewart three-point experience. We'll see. Jaden Ivey, to me, is the wild card both this year and long term. I think Cade is going to be an all-star, like a regular all-star.
The other guy, I mean, we'll see how Durin looks, who they loved. I mean, they had Durin rated really high on their board from what I heard. We'll see what he develops into. There's some other pieces here. You know, Killian Hayes is still kicking around. They love the livers kid. I think he's going to be a part of their rotation this year. But Ivy, to me, none of those guys are number two stars in five years, I don't think, on the board.
on a good team. Ivy is the wild card who maybe he develops into that guy. Everyone has said the fit between him and Cade is going to be really fun. The shooting piece notwithstanding, we'll see how that goes. I just looked at this team and I looked at the level of experience aside from Bogdanovich. It's a really inexperienced group. The bench is going to take some work for Dwayne Casey to figure out the right rotation, particularly if Killian Hayes is just a bust and we'll see.
I went under. I just 29 and a half is too high. And I went under, but I really wanted to go over. And I think they've got something really fun kicking around to Detroit. And I think we're going to see them switch everything defensively this season from what they did at the end of last season and what I've heard. I think they're pretty decently built to do that. And I'm interested to see how that works against really good teams now that they are starting the season knowing that.
Okay, Isaiah Stewart looked pretty well as the five man in that scheme. Everyone else is pretty built to do it. We're going all in and we're going to do it as our scheme. I'm interested to see how that looks. Yeah, to me, Durin is the most interesting part of that, whether he can keep up in the same way as Stewart, especially if you are trying to ever play the two of those guys together, since you've also got Noel in the mix for minutes at center there.
which they did in summer league. Stewart played the four during summer league, was shooting a lot of threes and making many of them. It was everything that was advertised to you, that experience. But just he's very mobile for a seven footer. It's just hard for any seven footer, I think, to do that and play in that kind of scheme. I'm going to give you one more of your hard ones before I hijack the discussion and force you to talk about one of mine.
Let's say Philadelphia over 50 and a half. So I went over, as I said, but it was a difficult one for me just in terms of, you know, the biggest issue I think was
Joel Embiid last year, career highs in games and minutes, they go 51 and 31, barely over this. I certainly think they're a better team, but can we count on Embiid at quite that same level that we got last season? Or is it reasonable going into the season to expect that he'll miss a little bit more time? Even granting that some of the time he missed last year was not due to injury, it was actually due to a relatively early, relatively long stay in health and safety protocols.
They were on my easy list over a million times out of a million. I would fake bet my own money on it. 50 and a half is going to be nothing for these guys. If Harden and Embiid play, let's say 130 games combined. I've talked a lot about the Sixers. I went on the rights to Ricky Sanchez last week and let them make fun of me over and over again for a million different things about myself, which is totally fine. I love those guys. I just, you know,
There are three reasons to disqualify this team as a true blue inner circle title contender. Okay. Number one, Joel Embiid gets hurt all the time in the playoffs. Well, they're all fluke injuries. I don't know what to do with that. So I'm shoving that to the side. Number two, they start two games.
different types of defensive liability at guard in Tyrese Maxey and James Harden. Easy prey for the hunting apex predator wings, the Giannis's, the Jalen Brown's, the Jason Tatum's, the guys, the Durant's, the guys you've got to get through. We're going to call that guy up, pick and roll, boom, switch, exploit, rinse, repeat. You know, no team is perfect.
Like, that's what basketball is at the highest levels. It's mitigating your weaknesses. And those two guys are such good offensive players that what am I supposed to do? Take them off the floor? Harden is a different kind of liability because he can switch, right? If you're going to play a switching scheme, he can actually do that. He's big and strong. Maxie, to me, has the tools to be a good defender. Long wingspan, quick, athletic. I don't see any... He's not going to be able to guard the guys that I mentioned, but I don't see any reason why...
You can't build a cohesive defense around him with him on the floor. And I just think offensively, this team's going to be awesome. They're deep. They fortified the bench with guys that we've talked about ad nauseum. I think they're going to win a lot of regular season games way more than, well, not way more, but easily for me to go over this. And the third reason, the third disqualifying reason, the one you can't mitigate if it's just intractable is James Harden pooping the bed when you're facing elimination or in the highest stakes moment. And if that's just what James Harden is,
If every time it's opponent three, Philly, something else other than four in a playoff series, three, two, three, three, whatever, he's going to just disappear and that's it and say, well, the ball never found me again. Well, then they're not going to win the title ever. I just don't think – I mean maybe I'm just being naive. I just don't think he has to be great for them. I just think he has to show up and be okay to good. Good. Good. Good.
And I think he can do that. So I'm all in on the Sixers. I mean, to your list of reasons, I feel more confident about the Sixers in the regular season than I do in the playoffs, which is why they are ultimately, I think the, they have the highest line of any team I went over on. So this is even this being difficult, it's still a vote of confidence in the regular season Sixers. It's interesting because, you know, that comment about Maxie having the tools to be a good defender and to be part of a good defense is,
There is an element where we see at the highest levels of playoff competition that it may just not even matter about those tools and it may just be being undersized is fundamentally a problem that you can't totally solve.
It's something you can certainly overcome. You have to solve it on a team level. He's not going to grow six inches and weigh 250 pounds and be PJ Tucker. You have to solve it by being a great offensive team and be being a good help and recover team. Like we've seen teams win championships with really bad defensive players as part of their core starting lineup.
But it's interesting because as you sort of got to, the defensive weaknesses of Harden and Maxey don't quite fit together. And same with Harden and Embiid, where we know that Harden can be part of a championship caliber defensive scheme if you're switching everything. And they've gotten a lot of other pieces now that can do that with P.J. Tucker and Daniel House, who were part of that exact scheme in Houston, as well as D'Anthony Melton. But...
there's still, as long as Embiid and Maxey are on the court, you're not going to want to switch everything if you're Philadelphia.
I don't know how many of your hard ones we've done, but I'm going to now transition to a couple of mine that I just am just required by my own brain to get your opinion on. The Brooklyn Nets, 50 and a half. One at a 54 win pace, I think, in games Durant played last year. Have three stars. Well, I mean, we know. We know what they have. They're going to play Simmons at the five lot. They got a lot of shooting. They only have Claxton as a real center unless you include Sharp and Markeith. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 50 and a half.
For a team with Durant and two guys who have made All-NBA in relatively recent seasons, and I say that knowing what they have also done or not done in relatively recent seasons, as recently as last season, in fact, that's a low line for a Kevin Durant team with two guys that talented as the second and third best players on the team.
I am curious, Mr. Pelton, and I think you telegraphed it by what you said about Philly, how you contemplated this Dunder Mifflin Brooklyn Nets team. So I did go under on them, is that implied? But they were the last cut from my hardest lines to pick section. I bumped them because I wanted to talk about Orlando and not just teams at the top of the Eastern Conference, as it turned out. So I...
The interesting thing is, you know, the projections, despite the fact that they should be measuring on paper, Brooklyn is way under this line in part because of the fact that Duran is still projected to miss a huge number of games based on the entire season that he missed due to the Achilles rupture back in 2019-20. This will be the last season. That's kind of part of his track record in terms of projecting games played.
And then also because Ben Simmons doesn't have a year of data in here, not having played at all last season. So those two factors go into it. I don't think they're nearly as strong on paper, even on paper, as the team two years ago with James Harden was. What about on parchment paper? Well, parchment paper is kind of flimsy, right? So maybe it actually does hold up here.
So I don't think they're quite as strong on paper as that team, but this still gave me picking under on a team with that much talent did still give me like a little concern. And as you talked about in the kind of most confusing team segment, there's a, there's a wide gap between the ceiling and the floor for the 2022, 23 Brooklyn Nets.
Yeah, the floor doesn't exist. A hole has been dug into the floor and you just fall into the sunken place endlessly. That's the floor. The ceiling, I don't know where it is. Look, this team, if you go under 50 and a half, so you think the Nets are going to be 50 wins max, probably 49, 48, and 34. Records that don't scream like memorable team in any sense.
They have the potential. They are so talented. And Durant is so good by himself that they have the potential to make you look so foolish. More foolish than most teams of this ilk have the potential to make you look for going under. And yet I also went under because if you give me... I'm just shorting the nets. I'm shorting the nets. Too much has happened.
And if you just side by side put positive scenarios and negative scenarios, if you add up injury and what we'll just politely call chaos, the downside scenarios outnumber the upside scenarios and outpace them in severity. And so if you're forcing me, again, I wouldn't fake bet on this one. It was one of my hardest ones. But if you're forcing me to go over or under 50 and a half wins, I'm saying the Nets are 49-50.
And whatever, 49 and 33 at best. And I'm going under. I don't feel great about it, but I just...
Are you kidding me? I have to bet on that thing working? I will happily see it work. I will happily watch it work, recalibrate my expectations if and when it works, admire how it works, go to bed with a smile on my face that a team in New York City is functional and playing elite basketball. I'll be so happy. But right now, on October 3rd, I am betting zero points.
Fake dollars on this team being a cohesive, easy 50-plus game winner. There's just so many more ways for it to go wrong than there are for it to go right. Well put. Can I make you do another one of mine? Sure. Atlanta, 45.5. And I kind of want to combine that with Cleveland at 47.5.
The two teams that traded a boatload of stuff for all-star guards. One perennial all-star guard in Donovan Mitchell going to Cleveland as the new fourth of four presumed all-stars, three actual all-stars and one that has a higher ceiling in all of them. And DeJounte Murray to Atlanta, joining a starting five that looks fantastic with Trey Young, him, DeAndre Hunter.
John Collins, Clint Capella, the bench we can talk about. Separated these two teams by two wins. Again, Atlanta 45.5, Cleveland 47.5.
And I just went back and forth a million times on both of them. It's weird that only two wins separate them because 45 and a half felt low to me for the Hawks and 47 and a half felt a little, a little trepidatious going over for the Cavs. So start with the Hawks and, and what you're thinking was there.
I considered actually putting them on my easiest list because I feel good about this over here. As we talked about when I came on to preview the Hawks a few weeks ago, I generally like this mix, although there's still some questions about exactly how it's going to play out when we see DeJounte Murray and Trey Young on the court this season. And is Trey Young going to do the things that he needs to do for this pairing of players to be successful? But to that Atlanta-Cleveland point in particular, it's...
As we talked about then, back when the projections were preliminary, now they're at least far enough along that they're no longer to be considered preliminary. Atlanta is ahead of Cleveland, pretty comfortably ahead of Cleveland, all things considered. And so to me, Cleveland was a pretty clear under and Atlanta was comfortable over. I did the same and felt good about neither. I went barely over for Atlanta and penciled them in at 46 and 36. Yeah.
And barely under for Cleveland and penciled them in at 46 and 36. So I split the baby a little bit. Bogdanovich, let's say recovering from injury makes me nervous for a Hawks team that is not really overflowing in depth. But again, I like that starting five. I like the staggerability, a word I just made up, of Trey and DeJounte.
And I'm just super bullish on Okongwu. I think one way or another, Okongwu is changing the outlook of this team for the better this season. Maybe that is supplanting Clint Capella in the starting five eventually. That seems a little aggressive to call now. Maybe it's just he ends up playing 30 minutes on some nights when he's really rolling.
But I just like the core. The top eight, I really like. Everything after that makes me nervous. Jalen Johnson getting real rotation minutes makes me a little nervous. But I like the top eight well enough to go barely, barely over. I just checked this out on Twitter. It seems that no one has used the term staggerability ever in NBA context. So you have coined that, I think. Well, good. Good for me. I've accomplished something in my life. Cleveland, I just...
know why. I just don't, I don't have a good reason for why. They were on my most confusing teams list with Mr. Beck. So it's no surprise that I went back and forth on them. 48 wins is a lot of wins in the East. There just aren't a lot of easy wins in the East. 48 is a lot for a team that just added a huge new ingredient. I don't really have any worries about like Mitchell and Garland are going to somehow take away from each other.
Particularly because there's natural staggerability built in. You know, I just don't worry about that. I think what it is is it's just a lot going on. It's a lot to sort of figure out on the fly. The expectations are really high. And until Rubio comes back, I'm like slightly nervous about the bench. Beyond Love and presumably Levert if he doesn't start. And Dean Wade if he doesn't start.
You know, who knows who they're going to start a core or whoever at that spot at the three, which is the gaping hole on the team that I'm also not that worried about. I mean, Osmond's all right. I guess it's just 48, 49. You're getting towards 50 win territory. I just they could get there. Like I've already said, it wouldn't surprise me if they host the four or five playoff series in the first round. I think they have that kind of upside. But yeah.
I don't know. They just feel like 46 or 47 is fine for me. I just couldn't go that more aggressive. We haven't talked about the Cavs, you and I, that much. What intrigues you? Why are they an under for you?
Yeah. So I think a couple of reasons that the projection comes out particularly low on them is teams that just jump that much from one season to the next. You know, I think the way that most people look at it is, well, you know, that's a good sign for their continued development. And the way that a projection system is going to look at it is, well, you probably had some things go right.
that season that aren't going to continue going right, even though clearly health was not among them for the 2001-22 Cleveland Cavaliers who were hit as hard as just about anybody in that regard, including the Rubio injury. So, you know, that's a usual variable there that they do have going in their favor as you look forward. But, you know, Darius Garland has made these two enormous leaps back to back. You know, does he come back to the pack a little bit after that? Jared Allen after a career year, all those things.
And then the interesting piece of it is Donovan Mitchell's defensive projection is just very bad. He's bottom 10 in terms of the three-year luck-adjusted RAPM that's a factor in this from NBAShotsCharts.com. And obviously having a bunch of players with size behind him will help. But one thing people like to say in the wake of that trade is, oh, Mobley and Allen, they're so switchable.
Okay, well, that doesn't really help me that much if I don't feel comfortable switching two undersized guards and Garland and Mitchell on the other side of that. Like, you got to be able to do both ends of the switch, not just one. I'm really intrigued by them. I can't wait to watch them play. I love Garland, and I am over the moon with Mobley.
And the other guy, I mean, Mitchell's awesome. Jared Allen was legit. It was a legit all-star season for him last year. Just something ineffable leaves me just – it's just too aggressive for me to go over. So before we move on to the easy ones, I do have to say, again, as a rookie to this exercise – or the oldest rookie in NBA betting history, by the way. I'm the Andre Egrum. That's even a better one. The Frigioni of this.
I just have no idea what to do with the worst teams. San Antonio, Oklahoma. San Antonio is a 22 and a half. I mean, that is like, holy smokes. And yet I think they are the worst team in the NBA. We're going to get to them. Okay. Utah has a bunch of actually good players. Have no idea how long they're going to be on the team. They all, many of them do the same thing, which is to dribble and shoot.
Houston, where's Houston? 23 and a half? Love Houston long term. Love. It's got a lot going on there. Young teams are really bad. Indiana? Are they going to trade the veterans at some point? Talked about the Lakers trade last week with Howard Beck, the theoretical Lakers trade. If they do, I mean, that is worst team in the NBA potential too. Have no idea what to do with any of those.
The Spurs, I assume, are in your easiest calls? That's correct. Let's transition then to easiest calls and sell me on what I presume is a Spurs over because the line is so low and you're going to tell me that Pop is going to squeeze every ounce out of this group where I guess Trey Jones is the only traditional point guard on the roster and we're going to see a lot of point primo going on. Sell me on how that is going to work offensively. I mean, I love Vassell.
kelvin johnson just rampaging to the rim shot to three pretty well the last couple years love him but the lack of a primary creator i feel any faith that makes me makes me want to actually go under despite the fact that this line is so abysmally low so sell me kp yeah i mean i think that in san antonio's desire to have the number one pick this year are probably the two reasons that this low i mean the the cell starts like i said with the the stat about teams that's
that have totals that low actually tend to go over the comfortable majority of the time. That there's something about this that the market isn't quite able to assess correctly, even though we know some team's going to win 20 games each.
it's probably going to be a team that has a lot of injuries, not necessarily whoever projects is the worst on paper. And I don't think San Antonio has the least talent in the league. They have maybe the least exciting talent because, you know, Kelton Johnson and Jakob Pertl, those aren't guys who are going to be
developing into all-stars down the line the way that we hope that Houston's young players are going to do or Detroit's or Oklahoma City's. But today, other than Shea Gilgis-Alexander, those guys are better than the players on those teams. And unless they just don't play a lot of minutes, I think they're going to be okay. The other piece of this is, Tray Jones actually played pretty well last season as a starter for them down the stretch. I don't think...
He's obviously one of the weaker starting point guards in the league, but I think it's the lack of a point guard besides him that's the issue more than Trey Jones himself. Fair. I tip my cap. A starting five with Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Jakob Pertl shooting 30% from the line, but let's just leave that aside. That's like you're 60% of the way towards what we will call a competent NBA starting five. Maybe Trey Jones is...
One of the other two, maybe Josh Primo is along with Trey Jones or separately, maybe Sohan, the kid from the kid they just drafted who everyone says I'm going to love. You know, a fascinating thing about Sohan, I didn't see their game yesterday, but I saw the highlights and he seems to be leaning totally into the Dennis Rodman comparison in terms of hair color. He's wearing number 10 for the Spurs and also seems to be wearing shorts the same size as Dennis Rodman's were in 1995.
I'm all for everything you just said. I'm all, I'm all the Spurs are going to win 35 games. I mean, they're going to fail to tank. They're too good. That's it. Okay. Give me another one of your easy calls. Well, I also had in here another team you mentioned in that group, the Indiana Pacers at 23 and a half also isn't over.
Last season, they won 25 games, and I think that's a big reason that their total was so low is people are looking at this as saying, well, they're not as good as they were last year. We got to subtract from where they were last year. But their Pythagorean record was actually a much more respectable 32 and 50. So in terms of caliber of play, they've got more room to go down to 23. It might be the first Pythagoras. Is he Greek? The Greek mathematician? Yeah.
Pythagoras? Yeah, I believe so, yeah. On this pocket. What's the Pythagorean triangle? Is that the same as the 3-4-5 triangle? That is an example. I mean, all triangles, I think, are all right triangles. Yeah, all triangles are Pythagorean, yeah, I think.
Boy, oh boy. I just know, you know what I know about math now? In the year 2023, removed from getting a three on my AP calculus exam in 1995, a test that I bombed so badly, I just drew a picture for one of the answers because my case of senioritis was so severe. The word isosceles is really, really fun. Isosceles, good word.
Good word. I would agree with that. Also, vertical angles are congruent is just a critical step in any geometric proof. I still think about vertical angles are congruent. Okay. What team we're talking about? The Pacers? Yes. This is a case of just if they trade Hield and Turner or one of them, I just think they're going to be terrible. I mean, they just don't have a lot of – I mean, I love Halliburton. He's going to be in my five most intriguing players column.
I mean, it's also a question of how early they trade one of those guys. Because if it's February, that just can't have that much effect on your record. Whereas if it's December 15th, it can do a lot more.
Look, whether they're really bad, kind of bad, unwatchable bad, they're going to be bad. So let's just – that's great. You went over on the Pacers. You've predicted them to win between 24 and 28 games. Congratulations. Grow the corn. Awesome. Pacers win. Let's go – can you pick an interesting team now? Apologies to the Pacers. Again, Tyrese – I just talked to Rick Carlisle three hours ago about Tyrese Halliburton. He's going to be in a column next week or whenever it's coming out. I'm interested in the Pacers, just not right now.
Before the geometry teachers come after me, it's a right triangle that the Pythagorean theorem applies to. It's strictly right triangles. I did have that somewhere deep in the recesses of my brain. Well, I think there's a couple of these that are probably on both of our lists. And I guess let's go with the Toronto Raptors, a line of 45 and a half wins. Bang the over. I couldn't throw my loonies and my toonies, my fake loonies and toonies on that one enough.
I frankly just don't understand how it's 45 and a half.
The Raptors won 48 games last year. I think they were 18th in offense and 9th on defense. They gradually ascended to become the kind of defense just hellacious, switching, mean, taking the ball from you like a schoolyard bully, winning the turnover battle game, winning the offensive rebounding game on the other end to overall win the possession. Just nasty. Nasty. They retain everybody.
Which still leaves them without a backup point guard to Fred Van Vliet, which I think is, if that's the issue you want to pick at, like that their ceiling on offense just isn't going to be very high, that's the issue. But they retain everybody. I believe in what Precious Achua showed at the end of last year as a legit three-point shooting off the dribble, like the adventures of Precious get a little adventurous, but off the dribble, playmaking, stretch center, or we just need a new term for whatever these Raptors players are, stretch something offensively.
I think Siakam is poised to have a huge year, huge, after going back, regaining his all-NBA form. Confidence through the roof. I think he's going to shoot it better all in. They retain Boucher. They retain Thad Young. They add Otto Porta. They just keep adding and retaining. And I just, I think Scottie Barnes is going to be a superstar in the NBA. Barely scratched the surface last year. Looked super up to the playoff stage before he got hurt in that series against Philly.
I just, they're a no-brainer top 10 defense. I think they're going to be a decent offense. I just, I don't see why it's 45 and a half. I don't. If you tell me the Raptors, if you tell me the Raptors finish ahead of Brooklyn and host a playoff series in the first round, not going to surprise me at all. Same. I think there's two reasons it's so low. Number one, the fact that they didn't do anything exciting during the offseason, the Otto Porter edition. How about have Scotty Barnes on your team?
But number two, the lines are always under on the Raptors. They have gone over eight of the last 10 years, the most of any team in that span. So apparently Canadians just are too far from Las Vegas and aren't gambling enough is what I take from that.
The spooky molder contingent of Toronto fans is just going to eat up everything you said. The world is against them. Adam Silver is against them. The smoking man is against them. Everyone is trying to remember the Raptor mascot even got kicked out of the sidelines, either in Tampa or in the bubble because he was too loudly taunting opposing free throw shooters. Punish the Raptor for being creative in an empty arena. Are they going to treat an American mascot like that? I don't think so.
By the way, in terms of mascot news, I need to get your take at some point here on Bowie, the new Seattle Kraken mascot that they just unveiled on Saturday night that's a troll. Oh, my God. You can't just spring that on me in the middle of a podcast. Can you spell his name? Bowie? Like a Bowie. B-U-O-Y.
Oh, like a buoy in the water. Well, what am I supposed to do now? I have to look up the picture of him. Yeah, we have to pause the podcast for this. Isn't it late in... Wait, no, the hockey season is just starting. So this is a big reveal for the Kraken right now. Yeah, going into... Oh, look at him. There he is. He's a sea troll...
Who lives? Oh, there's a video. Oh, this is going to be great. Oh, my God, look at him. He's got hair. The eyebrows. Why does he have double? He's got three sets of eyebrows that I can see. Hair coming out of his ears.
And he is – I can request him at parties too. Look at that. There's a request for him. He's a sea troll who lives in the caverns of Climate Pledge Arena. Is there water there? I have not seen any, but maybe I haven't gone far enough in the caverns of Climate Pledge Arena. Spicy. Spicy. Bui's favorite meal is shark with maple leaf seasoning. How about that? How about that, Toronto and San Jose? Okay. Okay.
This is exciting. So we're in agreement on Toronto. Does the backup point guard thing concern you at all? Who would you start if you were them? Would you start Trent or bring him off the bench and go with the all-gigantic and Van Vliet lineup of like Fred Van Vliet, Anunobi, Siakam, Achua, Barnes? By the way, a guy we didn't mention, Anunobi. I say this every year. It's going to be the year. At some point, it's going to be the year where he puts it all together.
I would start Trent. I still think you do probably need that shooty alongside that group. And then I just like Achua's infusion of energy coming off the bench. I think that's a nice role for him.
So start Siakam at center. I guess what counts as a center then? Yeah. Again, the Raptors don't have positions. I guess this was a big thing because Scottie Barnes was listed as a guard last. He was guard forward last week and people were like amazed at this. Like the Raptors are just basketball players. Stop stressing about the positions. Give me another easy one.
Sacramento over 33 and a half. We talked about this two weeks ago on the pod. They won the equivalent of 35 in both 2019-20 and 2020-21. And so this is not like a large number for them. And if there's any team that's going to be motivated to continue trying to win games at the end of the season, even if they might be on the fringes of the playing race, it's going to be the Sacramento Kings who are now officially with the Mariners clinching on Friday, the longest playoff drought in major American pro sports.
Congratulations to the Kings. Talked a lot about them with Howard last week and what should happen to them if they extend this playoff drought to 20, which should not happen but would be on par with what
the greatest on achievements in the history of sports. Look, you get, I don't know how many games they get combined against Oklahoma city, San Antonio, Utah, and Houston maximum 16. You know, some, maybe they get one of those teams just three times, clean up those games, clean up your business, go 13 and three or whatever it ends up being. And then, then it's cruise control to the over. You start messing up those games. Then we might have a problem. They can't beat this line. Just, I,
I don't know. Let Bowie the troll take over the team for a year. I'll give you another easy one. I'm curious to see if they're on your list. The Nuggets at 49 and a half. I know you're cautious with high lines. That's not 50, but you got to win 50 to beat it. I didn't even I didn't think for one second. I actually literally may not have thought for one second. I may have thought for a half a second before saying over. Can you make the case against me why this is not easy?
I mean, I had them is over. I guess, look, you got Jamal Murray coming back from an injury. Michael Porter Jr.'s health still, I think, a long-term question mark even after the back surgery he had last year. So I think those two are the factors. But again, we've seen them without those two guys for an entire season, and they still basically won this amount of games. So they are probably a pretty safe overpick. Although I do have little concerns at the depth that point guard is
Are we convinced Bones Highland is a point guard, I guess is the question? I guess I'm convinced that I don't care. Maybe I should care more than I do. I get what you're saying. He's a gunner. He's a gunner. He's not an organizer quite yet. If I play my cards right, I have another fulcrum on the floor with him.
michael malone has been hesitant to stagger that way at times in the past couple seasons it's driven me a little crazy even though he's playing the long game by doing that and i understand that i just am not i'm not that concerned about it um i'm just not one more argument they signed deandre jordan on the first day of free agency well i'll tell you what i'm sure you've heard it read it and i've made some calls the last few days the zeke nagy stuff is real um
He is maybe the story of their camp other than Murray coming back after 500-something days away and MPJ making his way back from a back injury. I don't know what that means, if they're actually going to make Zeke Nagy the backup five, if he can even play sometimes with Jokic because he's so switchable and he shoots it pretty well. But it's interesting. It's interesting. Yeah, I mean, I just want to see him stay healthy like he was very promising last season when he was on the court.
I just don't see any way these guys don't win 50 games if Murray and Jokic are healthy the entire season. I mean, what did they win last year, 48? I think so, yeah. I mean, this guy, Jokic is dragging these backups to 48 wins. I love the KCP fit, love the Bruce Brown fit, have talked with Adam Morris about how they have the potential if they want to lean defense to go Murray, Brown, KCP, Gordon, Jokic at key points of games. Love that lineup. Jeff Green's always useful to have around.
I just, I'm in. Now, let me ask you this. I'm doing my, my tiers column where I put the teams into groups. And my first tier is inner circle of championship contenders. Like you don't have to do anything to be, you're all you got to do is be healthy and you're in, there's no development that needs to happen. There's no questions that need to be answered. You're in the inner circle. Where do you stand on the, on the much debated notion of can the nuggets ever win at all?
with Jokic as their defensive center because you know that's the skepticism after what Phoenix did to them two seasons ago and after you know weirdly the Warriors players came out of that series with more respect for Jokic but the conventional wisdom the Jokic skeptics came out saying well look what Steph Curry did to him they just ran him ragged two screens three screens come on up where you're hiding there bring that guy up where do you stand on that
Yeah, our buddy Nate Duncan has probably been the president of this. You just need more defensive versatility out of your center to win four different playoff rounds than Jokic offers you, even if he's an underrated defender, certainly during the regular season.
And I probably lean a little closer in that direction than you do. Not completely in that direction. I would never say they can't win a championship, certainly. But I do think I want to see them do it in a way that they haven't been able to because they just haven't had enough around him since the 2020 run. Does the bubble mean anything to you? And I'm not asking that facetiously. Does the fact that they came back to embarrass, frankly, the Clippers and make the conference finals in what was a...
you know, you, if you play that game two over and 80 doesn't make that shot, that could be a long series, but he did make the shot. Does that, can we take, is it just too far in the distance and too anomalous now? I think the Clippers part of it is potentially too anomalous because that just didn't seem like a team that was playing the way that we know it was all capable. We all know it was capable of playing and we saw it play in the playoffs next year, but the,
The overlooked part of that is they did also come back to beat Utah in the first round. And that Utah team turned out to be the best in the league in the regular season the next year. And it was a matchup that should have been particularly favorable for Utah because Denver obviously wasn't going small. And yet the defense wasn't creating that series, but they just had enough offense that they could overcome it. So I put probably more stock on the Jazz series than the Clippers series.
Yeah, you know, defensive versatility with your centers. I mean, I get it. I get it. Like, even Tristan Thompson was pretty versatile as a defensive center when the Cavs won. They won with Kevin Love on the floor against the same Warriors team we're talking about. I mean, the older version of it, the younger version of it, I guess is what I mean to say.
It's not like Steph Curry was not dragging Kevin Love up into pick and rolls. And it just kind of reminds me of the Maxie Harden discussion in a way. It's like, okay, so what is Denver supposed to do other than just surround him with the best defensive talent possible, get creative with the coaching, and also have an unbelievable offense that's going to be a problem for whoever they come up against? I mean, they will not be at the top of my inner circle of championship contenders, but I'm –
I'm just more bullish on their ability to – it's just you don't – there are no Draymond Greens. Draymond Green is one of one. Would you take Robert Williams over Nikoli Okic just for this purpose depending on roster context? I mean that's a crazy question I realize, but he is more versatile. He is more switchable.
I just think this is what basketball at the highest levels is. It's, it's, it's problem solving around sort of inherent roster construction stuff. And I think Denver is capable of doing it in part because there's such a brilliant offensive team. And the easiest way to go deep in the playoffs is to be really good overall. And Nicola Jokic gives you a great chance of being really good overall. Any other easy ones on your list?
Well, the Los Angeles Lakers with a line of 44 and a half. Oh, I had them at 45 and a half where I was looking. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I've also seen that. Yeah. It's even easier if it's 45 and a half to go under here. So a fun fact about the Lakers is,
They have averaged nearly seven games under their preseason totals over the last decade. That is farther from the next worst team than number 29 is from number 22 in what is, I think, the clearest distillation of there being a Lakers tax due to the number of Lakers fans that gamble in Las Vegas in particular. Under. You went under? Under, yes.
I did two, and I was working on 45.5, and I penciled in 44 wins, so I guess I'm under on 44.5 too. Look, I've said before –
You give AD and Bron 120 to 130 games combined, I think the floor is pretty high because those two guys are so good. Now, the floor being pretty high in the West could be 40 wins. That's how good the West is. And also, that's how little I trust anything else that's going on with that roster other than Patrick Beverly as a fit around those two guys. And I say this as the president of the Damian Jones fan club in the national media, but
Pretty high on Thomas Bryant for what he is as sort of a minimum salaried flyer who can, you know, hopefully regain the three-point shooting he had a couple seasons ago in Washington. Like some of the stuff they did, but it's just... Supporting Cass is just light on shooting, light on size, and heavy on Russ. And I just... I just have no faith in really any of it other than Beverly. And...
Again, just like the Nets, the downside scenarios just outnumber the upside scenarios. The downside scenarios of the rusting goes bust. One of LeBron and AD misses 35 games instead of 15 games, and it all just sort of blows up. So they would be a stay away with my fake money because those two guys are that good and they scare me that much. But I also went 44 on the nose.
Yeah, I mean, I think if you're confident going over, you have to believe that they're going to make a major trade in season. And I'm still not certain, as you discussed with Howard Beck, what that would be. Can I ask you just real quickly on two other teams I'm interested in? Sure. Miami, 48 and a half. That was pretty challenging for me. I think that's a fair line. I went slightly over.
Just because the Heat have just earned the benefit of the doubt with me. Two of the last three seasons, they've won it above that pace. It's kind of a bet on Jimmy Butler playing 65 games. And if he plays 65 games, he's just awesome. He's a wins machine. He's a regular season wins machine. And defensively, they're going to have a great defense. That's what they do. They've earned the benefit of the doubt for me. Portland, 39 and a half. That was my last hardest one.
Ooh, interesting. Go ahead. For exactly the same reason you talked about with Howard last week, where I liked their additions this offseason, you know, almost without fail. And yet something, at least in the projection system, about how that defense fits together, in part because Anthony Simons' defensive track record has been so poor in terms of plus minus, still leaves them as the second worst projected defense in the league. I went 38 wins in under...
The thing that makes me nervous is if Dame is on the court, you are an elite offense. I mean, that's how good he's been historically. It does seem that way in some respects, but they've been so sort of like a mid-40s team that you don't think of him that way. He is a walking top five offense when he's on the floor. The 12 minutes or 15 minutes or 18 minutes he's off the floor during games are going to be dicey, although I think Simons is ready. I think Simons is ready for the C.J. McCollum stagger role.
It's just if they're going to be a top five offense overall, they got a great shot to beat this line. You got to be terrible on defense. You got to be Hawks level like the Hawks last year were second on offense, 26th on defense. It added up to whatever amount of wins it added up to. It made me nervous a little bit. And I'm interested to see if the Blazers can prove the skepticism wrong because they have interesting talent on the team. It's not the deepest team, but they have interesting talent and talent.
If they can accelerate the process of learning how it all fits so it's not 25 games into the season and something clicks, like –
There are definitely universes where they outperform expectations. I did end up going over for them. I think one thing that's interesting is a lot of people have talked about how this forward group, you know, set aside Josh Hart, who's a different style of player, but little in Jeremy Grant and justice Winslow comparing them to the heartless amino front court. That was part of that 2019 team that got to the conference finals. And the interesting thing is I think they can actually be better offensively because, you know, those guys really didn't have much capacity to do anything off the dribble, which showed up oftentimes in the playoffs, Jeremy Grant, we know can. And I think,
not as little has the ability to do it as well. And Josh Hart, for sure. I mean, Josh Hart in the open court is a freight train. I agree with you. Like I've heard, I've heard that comparison too. To me, not only could they be better than the heartless immunopairing, they should be way better than the heartless immunopairing because they can catch and dribble and you can't just leave them 30 feet of space like teams would do in the playoffs. I'm,
I described the Blazers as blah repeatedly last week. Blah to me means 500. Blah means I don't see like, oh my God, the Blazers are on a 49 win pace. Where did that come from? Sexiness to them? I could see that. I could see blah being thrown back in my face. I could see it, but I'm still going blah. I'm still going under 38 wins. Yeah, let's hope there's not a graphic at the end of the year. Blah, Zach Lowe is highlights of the Blazers play.
Or maybe let's hope there is, actually. If Portland's good, it's great for me. That's my defacto. Yeah, it is good for you. All right. What's the Krakens over under this year? Well, they do it points.
Oh, God. I don't feel like I'm comfortable enough with the point system in hockey yet to determine how many points the crack it. But they're expected to be closer to the playoff mix this year. It made some additions. They ended up drafting a guy who was kind of considered the most talented player of the draft, but slipped to the fourth pick. It was one of those stories. So they're Jabari Smith Jr., I guess. Or the Joel Embiid of...
Well, not an injury, so definitely not invaded. The background sounded a little more like
Wiggins-y in terms I mean Wiggins didn't drop in the draft but like the guy who was always considered the number one pick and then people started to kind of nitpick his game all right Mr. Pelton thank you for indulging me as usual I will see you around the block somewhere I don't know when we'll next cross paths maybe Portland maybe I'll come out and the Blazers will be 15 and 5 and I'll be embarrassed but I'll come out and make a trip and we'll grab a little post-game beverage that would be great hope to see you there