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cover of episode Fed Chair Smacks Down Trump at Live Presser

Fed Chair Smacks Down Trump at Live Presser

2025/6/19
logo of podcast The MeidasTouch Podcast

The MeidasTouch Podcast

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People
B
Ben Meiselas
D
Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
H
Howard Lutnick
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Jerome Powell
现任美联储主席,曾任投资银行家和律师,领导美联储应对COVID-19疫情和控制通胀。
M
Michael McKee
Topics
Ben Meiselas: 特朗普的经济政策正在破坏美国经济,导致增长预期下调,并可能引发滞胀。我观察到,美联储预测2025年通胀上升,增长下降,失业率上升,这表明特朗普的政策正在对经济产生负面影响。如果特朗普政府没有采取这些措施,而是让前总统拜登的经济政策继续执行,情况可能会更好。我认为,特朗普政府的关税政策是导致当前经济问题的主要原因之一。 Jerome Powell: 作为美联储主席,我认为贸易、移民、财政和监管政策的变化及其对经济的影响仍然不确定。关税的影响取决于其最终水平和预期水平,关税的增加可能会推高物价并抑制经济活动。我观察到,自三月份以来,经济增长略有放缓,失业率略微上升,通货膨胀率上升了0.3%。许多公司预计会将部分或全部关税转嫁给供应链中的下一个环节,并最终转嫁给消费者。因此,我认为目前保持现状是合适的,以便进一步了解情况。 Michael McKee: 特朗普总统持续对您进行攻击,这是否会对市场和消费者信心产生影响? Donald Trump: 我已经尝试了各种方法,但 Jerome Powell 仍然不为所动,他真是个蠢人。我认为他不降息的原因是因为他不爱我。 Howard Lutnick: 杰罗姆·鲍威尔应该尽快降息,这将为美国节省大量资金。如果他降息1%,美国每年可以节省3000亿美元。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, delivered a stark warning about the economy, predicting a concerning mix of inflation, slow growth, and rising unemployment in 2025. He attributed these projections partially to Donald Trump's economic policies, particularly the tariffs, which have increased prices and negatively impacted economic activity. Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the long-term effects of these policies.
  • Stagflation warning for 2025: Inflation up to 3%, growth down to 1.4%, unemployment up to 4.5%
  • Uncertainty around the long-term effects of Trump's economic policies, especially tariffs
  • Tariffs likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, just delivered the cold hard facts in a press conference.

Donald Trump is destroying our economy and all of the forecasts for growth now have to be pulled back. Here's what we're learning. A major stagflation warning by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, moments ago. The Fed now predicts a brutal mix for 2025 of the following inflation up.

to 3% growth down to 1.4% unemployment up to 4.5%. They're holding interest rates steady for now. No drop in the interest rates. They still expect two cuts this year, but we were expecting much more cuts and earlier cuts.

Had Donald Trump just done nothing and allowed former President Biden's economy to basically be on autopilot? Moments ago, here's what the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, had to say about Donald Trump's disastrous tariffs. Play this clip. Changes to trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policies continue to evolve and their effects on the economy remain uncertain.

The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity. The effects on inflation could be short-lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It's also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.

Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and ultimately on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. In this next clip, Jerome Powell talks about what we see happening with unemployment data and inflation. And Jerome Powell is just a data guy, not a political guy. Here's what we're seeing as a result of Trump's failed policies. Let's play it.

at this meeting. And those things are probably slow moving. So I think if you look at what's happening here, since March, this is since March, right? You see a little slower growth, just a tiny tick up, a one-tenth tick up in unemployment, and you see inflation moving up three-tenths. And by the way, it was a similar move

from the December SEP to the March. So that's what you see. You see the effects of tariffs. I think we learned in April after the March meeting that,

substantially higher tariffs were likely. And then since then, the estimates of where the tariffs will be have actually moved back down, although still at an elevated level. So we're adapting in real time. And what you see is an accumulation of individual assessments. Jerome Powell then talks about the business surveys that the Fed has been reviewing. And what they see is how the tariffs are now working their way into prices being passed on to consumers. Let's play it.

In addition, we look at surveys of businesses and there are many of those and you do see a range of things. But many, many companies do expect to put all or some or all of the effective tariffs through to the next person in the chain and ultimately to the consumer.

Today, the amount of the tariff effects, the size of the tariff effects, their duration and the time it will take are all highly uncertain. So that is why we think the appropriate thing to do is to hold where we are as we learn more. And we think our policy stance is in a good place where we're well positioned to react to incoming developments.

A reporter then asks Jerome Powell about all of Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in general, including attacks earlier in the day. Watch this exchange right here. Mr. McKee.

Michael McKee from Bloomberg Radio and Television. Your friend down at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue continues to lob insults in your direction. And I'm wondering, given how that the Supreme Court has maybe carved out the Fed from some of the legal implications of that, whether this is just noise that the markets and everybody should ignore until your term is up.

or whether you worry that it could lead to more pressure on confidence on Wall Street, on consumers about the outlook for the economy.

From my standpoint, it's not complicated. What everyone on the FOMC wants is a good, solid American economy with strong labor market and price stability. That's what we want. We think our policy is well positioned right now to deliver that and to be able to respond in a timely way as the data lead us around. The economy has been resilient, and part of that is our stance.

And again, we think we're in a good place on that to respond to significant economic developments. That's what matters. That is what matters to us. Pretty much that's all that matters to us. I need to ask, assuming you are not reappointed, would you stay on as governor when your term as chair ends? I'm not thinking about that. I'm thinking about this.

This was Donald Trump earlier in the day where he was having a press conference for a gigantic flagpole that he was putting on the north and south lawn of the White House, flanked by construction workers who were putting up a gigantic pole, who earlier in their interview, Donald Trump questions if they are illegal immigrants or not. Donald Trump attacks Jerome Powell. You can see on the faces of these construction workers,

how visibly uncomfortable they are as Donald Trump calls Jerome Powell stupid. Here, play this clip. - Name of the book, trying to get him to do something. I've been nice to him. I do it always. I don't know how to sell. I've been so nice to him, fellas, you wouldn't believe. Let's have dinner.

Too late. I'd call him too late. Come on, too late. Let's have dinner. I do it every way in the book. I'm nasty. I'm nice. Nothing works. He's like just a stupid person. But I don't expect anything. Maybe he does a little bit. Now, here's the clip of Donald Trump asking the construction workers if they're actually illegal immigrants. Play this clip. What they gave to us, fellas. Do we have anybody in here that's a member? No, I don't think so. You've known all these people for a long time. Thank you.

Any illegal immigrants in there? If they were, they'll find out. Right. They'll be checking you. You won't believe it. Your whole life will be destroyed because of this press conference. Watch. They'll destroy these people. I didn't want to tell them that before they stood up. They'll end up being, he's a so-and-so. This one is from you-know-where.

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Donald Trump's regime has been putting on a pressure campaign against Jerome Powell. The Trump regime has been trying to get Powell to lower interest rates by going on Fox to basically threaten him. Here is Howard Lutnick doing that a few weeks ago. Play this clip.

It's unbelievable that Jerome Powell is just sitting around waiting. The president calls him too late. He's just too late, Powell. I mean, why hasn't he cut? I mean, you remember, if he cut interest rates 1%, and you've got Europe cutting like crazy, you realize that saves America $300 billion a year?

It's unbelievable how much we would save if he did his job and he cut interest rates. The economy is ready for it. It's easy. Inflation is low. Come on. He's got to do his job soon. And here is Donald Trump also a few weeks ago saying the reason that Jerome Powell isn't cutting the rates is because he's not in love with Donald Trump. Play this clip. Other countries have done it. It's like Jekyll. It'd be great.

But he doesn't want to do it. I think he doesn't want to do it. Probably he's not in love with me. I think that's right. It's sort of a crazy reason, but that's the way life is. Anybody in his position would be like... Now, in today's report, Jerome Powell believes that there is this massive stagflation risk, but

But just a year ago, and I'll play you this video from a year ago, when former President Biden was in charge, Jerome Powell says, I don't see the stag or I don't see the flation. That's because inflation was going down to hit the Fed target. They were able to cut interest rates. Things were looking great. And then Trump screwed it up. Let's play this clip. In addition, I would say, you know, most forecasters, including

Our forecasting was that that last year's level of growth was very high, 3.4 percent. And I guess the fourth quarter, you know, and probably not going to be sustained and would come down. But that would be that would be our forecast. That wouldn't be stagflation. That would still be to a very healthy level of growth. And of course, with inflation, you know, we will return inflation to 2 percent.

And that won't be so I don't see the stag or deflation, actually. By the way, reflecting on Donald Trump's building of a gigantic poll in the White House today, I did a whole video about it earlier.

Do you see the guy in the crane right there? Like literally, like just look at this photo up. Did the guy in the crane pretend to be asleep to avoid the Trump selfie? And the other thing that Donald Trump did today was he removed the portrait of Hillary Clinton and he replaced it with a gigantic, ugly photo of himself, his face as the American flag. Well,

We'll keep you posted with more. This is what we have for now on the Midas Touch Network. And subscribe. Let's get to 5 million subscribers. Can't get enough Midas? Check out the Midas Plus sub stack for ad-free articles, reports, podcasts, daily recaps from Ron Filipkowski, and more. Sign up for free now at MidasPlus.com.

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