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cover of episode AI and Jobs: What Do We Really Know?

AI and Jobs: What Do We Really Know?

2025/5/16
logo of podcast The New Bazaar

The New Bazaar

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Cardiff Garcia: 我认为人工智能在未来5到10年内将能够完成我目前工作中的许多子任务,例如写作和编辑。因此,我个人需要不断提升自己的技能,利用这些工具来改进我的工作,而不是仅仅沿用旧方法。我看到人工智能正在迅速发展,并且在某些领域已经超越了人类的能力。因此,我需要适应这种变化,并找到新的方式来为我的工作增加价值。 Nathan Goldschlag: 我认为人工智能目前最适合作为集思广益的辅助工具。它擅长编码,可以帮助我节省大量时间。然而,它无法取代人类的判断力和研究能力。我认为未来成功的关键在于利用这些工具来提升我们的工作效率。人工智能可以自动化某些任务,但将这些任务串联起来并解决实际问题仍然需要人类的智慧。我认为原始智力不再像过去那样有价值,我们需要培养其他互补技能。人工智能在企业中的应用率仍然较低,但它正在迅速增长,尤其是在大型和年轻的企业中。虽然人工智能可以自动化某些任务,但它也创造了对新技能和熟练工人的需求。总的来说,人工智能对就业的影响尚不确定,但我们需要关注使用率、劳动力参与率和职业分布的变化。

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Will artificial intelligence help you do your job, or will it just straight-up do your job and leave you unemployable? 

Or will the future bring something else entirely — either between those two extremes or a world that we simply cannot imagine yet? And are we already starting to see signs of that future emerging? 

On this episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff is joined by economist Nathan Goldschlag, Research Director at the Economic Innovation Group. Until recently, Nathan was Principal Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies, where among other things he led research on the impact of technology, including AI, on the economy. Any worthwhile list of the world’s best economists on the subject of AI and work would have to include him. 

Cardiff and Nathan go through Nathan’s own research* and also filter out the megaton of nonsense on the topic and discuss some of the work done by others — research, essays, meanderings — that they think is actually worth sharing with listeners. 

They discuss, among other things: 

  • How many businesses are now using AI to produce goods and services
  • How have things changed since the launch and popularization of large language models
  • Economic growth consequences of AI
  • Whether “learn to code” is still good advice 
  • The skills that still matter 
  • To steer or not to steer the AI future
  • Nathan’s research on AI was done in collaboration with a large team of researchers at the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau including Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, David Beede, John Haltiwanger, Zach Kroff, Nikolas Zolas, Gary Anderson, and Eric Childress, along with program area partners including Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Cathy Buffington, and Keith Savage, as well as academic partners including Daron Acemoglu, Erik Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, and Pascual Restrepo. 

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