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cover of episode How Donald Trump Broke the Iowa Caucuses and Owns the G.O.P.

How Donald Trump Broke the Iowa Caucuses and Owns the G.O.P.

2024/1/12
logo of podcast The New Yorker Radio Hour

The New Yorker Radio Hour

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Benjamin Wallace-Wells
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David Remnick
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Robert Samuels
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Susan Glasser
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David Remnick:特朗普在共和党初选中占据主导地位,民调支持率超过50%。他呼吁支持者积极投票,认为如果输掉选举,国家将不复存在。 Benjamin Wallace-Wells:爱荷华州福音派基督徒群体感受到其影响力日渐式微的威胁,他们将特朗普视为对抗这种威胁的堡垒。部分牧师公开支持特朗普,甚至呼吁反对者沉默。许多保守派美国人认为他们正在失去优势地位,这深刻地影响了他们的思维和行为方式,他们将特朗普视为对抗这种变化的象征。 Robert Samuels:爱荷华州的共和党选民大致可以分为三类:福音派选民、商业共和党人和鹰派外交政策支持者,而德桑蒂斯难以在这三类选民中获得显著支持。妮基·黑利在爱荷华州获得了一些成功,但她对内战的言论暴露了她容易受到“抓包式”提问的影响,这可能会损害其在部分选民中的形象。一些爱荷华州的选民认为拜登政府比其展现出的更自由主义,这与华盛顿的普遍观点有所不同。 Susan Glasser:特朗普面临的指控反而增加了他在共和党内的支持率,他很有可能获得共和党提名,甚至提前结束竞选。即使特朗普被定罪,也可能不会对他在共和党内的支持率造成致命打击,因为只需要说服一小部分摇摆选民即可。人们普遍低估了特朗普再次当选的风险,这不仅会影响美国政策,还会对个人生活产生具体的影响。现在就应该具体思考特朗普获胜会如何影响个人生活和国家政策。如果特朗普再次当选,他可能会利用权力对政府部门进行政治化和非专业化,并对外交政策产生重大影响。如果特朗普再次当选,他将更有能力行使权力,因为弹劾机制失效,且无需再顾虑下一次选举。民主党内部对拜登能否赢得大选存在担忧,白宫的回应缺乏说服力。

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The podcast discusses how Donald Trump is dominating the Iowa caucuses despite not participating in debates or campaigning extensively, and is polling at over 50%.

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This time last year, Republicans were reeling from a poorer-than-expected performance in the 2022 midterm elections; many questioned, again, whether it was time to move on from their two-time Presidential standard-bearer. But Donald Trump is so far ahead in the polls that it would be shocking if he did not clinch the Iowa caucuses.  The New Yorker’s Benjamin Wallace-Wells and Robert Samuels have seen on the ground how much staying power the former President has despite some opposition from religious leaders and establishment power brokers. For MAGA voters, “The core of it is, ‘If Donald Trump is President, I can do anything I want to do,’ ” Samuels tells David Remnick. “ ‘I won’t have anyone … telling me I’m wrong all the time.’ ” Since 2016, Trump has honed and capitalized on a message of revenge for voters who feel a sense of aggrievement. Among evangelical voters, Wallace-Wells notes, Trump seems like a bulwark against what they fear is the waning of their influence. “To them, [Biden] is the head of something aggressive and dangerous,” he says. Susan B. Glasser, who writes a weekly column on Washington politics, takes the long view, raising concerns that we’re all a little too apathetic about the threats Trump’s reëlection would pose. “What if 2024 is actually the best year of the next coming years?  What if things get much much worse?” she says. “Now is the time to think in a very concrete and specific way about how a Trump victory would have a specific effect not just on policy but on individual lives.”