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cover of episode Russia’s No-Good, Very Failed Coup, and Jill Lepore on Amending the Constitution

Russia’s No-Good, Very Failed Coup, and Jill Lepore on Amending the Constitution

2023/6/30
logo of podcast The New Yorker Radio Hour

The New Yorker Radio Hour

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David Remnick
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Jill Lepore
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Joshua Yaffa
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Masha Gessen
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David Remnick:普里戈津兵变迅速失败,但其影响仍在持续。事件引发人们对普京权力稳定性的质疑,以及对俄罗斯未来政治走向的担忧。Remnick回顾了1991年苏联政变的经验,指出历史的相似之处和不同之处。他认为,普里戈津的行动并非旨在推翻普京,而是为了引起普京的注意,并就瓦格纳集团的未来地位进行谈判。 Masha Gessen:普里戈津的行动打破了普京对权力的垄断,揭示了俄罗斯政治中存在多个权力行为者。这一事件对俄罗斯民众产生了冲击,因为他们此前从未见过权力运作的这种模式。Gessen认为,普京的权力依赖于一种权力神话,而普里戈津的行动动摇了这种神话。她认为普京可能会加剧在乌克兰的冲突,但不太可能在国内进行大规模清洗,信息控制可能会加强。 Joshua Yaffa:普里戈津的行动可能是即兴发挥,目标并非夺取权力。他试图通过极端方式引起普京的注意,并就瓦格纳集团的未来地位进行谈判。Yaffa指出,俄乌战争使得普京应对政治危机的难度加大,普京的策略受到限制。他认为普里戈津事件的影响力正在减弱,但其引发的深层问题依然存在,俄乌战争的走向将对普京的政治命运产生重大影响。 David Remnick: 普里戈津的兵变是近年来俄罗斯最重大的政治事件之一,它暴露了俄罗斯政治体系内部的脆弱性以及普京权力受到的挑战。虽然兵变迅速失败,但它对俄罗斯的政治稳定性和国际关系都产生了深远的影响。此次事件也引发了人们对俄罗斯未来政治走向的广泛猜测和担忧,以及对普京统治的长期稳定性的质疑。 Masha Gessen: 普里戈津的行动虽然失败,但却揭示了俄罗斯政治体系中长期存在的权力斗争和不稳定因素。普京对权力的垄断并非牢不可破,其他政治力量也试图争取影响力。普里戈津的行动也暴露了俄罗斯军队内部的矛盾和分歧,以及对普京领导能力的质疑。Gessen认为,普京可能会采取措施加强对权力的控制,但俄罗斯政治的未来仍然充满不确定性。 Joshua Yaffa: 普里戈津的行动虽然出人意料,但它并非完全没有预兆。瓦格纳集团在俄罗斯和乌克兰的军事行动中扮演着越来越重要的角色,普里戈津本人也积累了相当大的政治影响力。Yaffa认为,普京对普里戈津的容忍度有限,普里戈津的行动最终触碰了普京的底线。普里戈津的行动也反映了俄罗斯社会对战争和普京政府的不满情绪。

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The chapter discusses the failed coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the implications for Putin's regime, and the insights provided by Masha Gessen and Joshua Yaffa on the situation in Russia.

Shownotes Transcript

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow last weekend, which killed more than a dozen Russian soldiers, fizzled as quickly as it began, but its repercussions are just beginning. The Wagner Group commander issued a video from Belarus claiming that he did not attempt a coup against Putin but a protest against the Defense Ministry.  David Remnick talks with Masha Gessen and the contributor Joshua Yaffa, who has written on the Wagner Group, about what lies ahead in Russia. Both feel that by revealing the reality of the war to his own following—a Putin-loyal, nationalist audience—Prigozhin has seriously damaged the regime’s credibility. If an uprising removes Putin from power, “there will be chaos,” Gessen notes. “Nobody knows what happens next. There’s no succession plan.”  Plus, Jill Lepore on amending the Constitution: suggesting a constitutional amendment these days is so far-fetched, it’s almost a punch line, but the Framers intended the document to be regularly amended, the historian Jill Lepore tells David Remnick. She argues that the failure to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment sank the country into a political quagmire from which it has not arisen, and her latest historial project brings awareness to the problem of amendability.