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cover of episode What Trump Has Got Wrong—and Right—About the War in Ukraine

What Trump Has Got Wrong—and Right—About the War in Ukraine

2025/3/7
logo of podcast The New Yorker Radio Hour

The New Yorker Radio Hour

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David Remnick
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David Remnick: 我与Stephen Kotkin讨论了特朗普政府对乌克兰战争的政策,特别是特朗普与泽连斯基在白宫的会面。我认为特朗普政府的立场是站在俄罗斯一边,谴责乌克兰挑起战争,并暂停对乌克兰的军事援助和情报共享,这将削弱乌克兰的防御能力。 Stephen Kotkin: 我认为特朗普的助手们试图通过一项矿产交易来让美国在乌克兰获得利益,他们认为普京的恶劣行为会促使特朗普进一步投资乌克兰。然而,J.D. Vance的举动激怒了泽连斯基,使得局势更加复杂。虽然我不认同特朗普的方法,但我认为他揭示了美国权力和在世界中的地位的一些真相,以及美国能力的局限性。欧洲国家在战争中没有派兵,也没有承诺在战后派遣维和部队,这表明欧洲在玩弄虚伪的游戏。特朗普的行为虽然令人反感,但却揭示了欧洲国家需要承担更多责任。虽然特朗普的行为可能适得其反,但现有的政策已经失败,需要改变。 Stephen Kotkin: 美国的权力在各个方面都达到了前所未有的水平,包括硬实力、经济实力、创新能力、能源、软实力和联盟力量。然而,美国的承诺已经超过了它的能力,部分原因在于盟友们没有尽到他们的责任。特朗普的行为虽然令人反感,但他揭示了美国承诺超过其能力的事实。虽然我不认同特朗普的分析和方法,但我认为美国目前的战略轨迹是失败的,需要改变。 我分析了俄罗斯的战略,他们希望西方衰落、内爆和崩溃,以便俄罗斯能够生存。普京希望通过这场战争来削弱西方,但他面临着国内的压力。俄罗斯的社会可能无法承受这场旷日持久的战争。这场战争的最佳结果可能是类似于朝鲜半岛的局面——一个分裂的乌克兰。最坏的结果是乌克兰失去主权。 为了结束这场战争,我们需要对普京施加政治压力,这需要找到俄罗斯内部的反对者,他们不关心乌克兰,但希望俄罗斯摆脱目前的困境。我们可以通过与这些反对者建立联系,为他们提供支持,来对普京政权施加压力,迫使他们走向谈判桌。 特朗普的行为虽然令人担忧,但他可能无意中促使了欧洲采取更积极的行动,并促使台湾加强防卫。虽然他的方法可能适得其反,但现有的政策已经失败,需要改变。美国社会和制度仍然强大,但我们面临着媒体环境极端化和技术颠覆的挑战。我们需要找到一种方法来保持自由社会,同时应对这些挑战。

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Chapters
The discussion opens with Trump's affinity for Putin and criticism of Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky. The conversation explores the implications of Trump's policies on U.S. foreign strategy.
  • Trump's affinity for Putin has been a subject of investigation and analysis.
  • Trump's recent actions include berating Zelensky and pausing military aid to Ukraine.
  • Stephen Kotkin provides insights into the strategic implications of Trump's policies.

Shownotes Transcript

Since emerging on the national political scene a decade ago, Donald Trump has openly admired the dictatorial style of Vladimir Putin. Trump’s lean toward Russia was investigated, it was psychoanalyzed—yet many were still shocked when recently Trump and Vice-President J. D. Vance berated President Volodymyr Zelensky, of Ukraine, in the Oval Office, and seemed to be taking Putin’s side in the conflict. When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, one of David Remnick’s first calls was to Stephen Kotkin, a historian of Russia and a fellow at the Hoover Institution. He speaks with Kotkin again, as Trump is pressuring Ukraine to accept a “deal.” Kotkin doesn’t endorse Trump’s position, but notes that it reflects real changes in America’s place in the world and the limits of American power. “You can say that Trump is wrong in his analysis of the world, you can say that Trump’s methods are abominable,” Kotkin says. “But you can’t say that American power is sufficient to meet its current commitments on the trajectory that we’re on.”