July 1st, 2025: Has Russia’s Summer Offensive Already Failed? & A Shocking Syrian Massacre Revealed
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It's Tuesday, the 1st of July. Well, look at that. It's a brand new month, and I think we are officially halfway through the year. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.

As Moscow ramps up missile strikes across Ukraine, there's a problem for Putin's invasion. Their ground offensive appears to be faltering. We'll explain why Russia's summer push is already stalling just weeks after it began. Later in the show, more signs of a major shift in the Middle East. Israel and Syria are reportedly in advanced talks to end decades of hostilities. But, well, nothing is ever easy or straightforward in the Middle East, it seems.

We'll look at just who the Israelis are negotiating with. A new Reuters investigation reveals Syrian commanders now in power and leading the discussions with Israel may have been behind the massacre of 1,500 Alawite civilians. And in today's Back of the Brief, a peace agreement signed in Washington is being hailed as a breakthrough for Congo and Rwanda. We'll look at those details. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

We'll begin with the latest from the front lines in Ukraine, where, despite a faltering summer offensive, Russia just unleashed their largest aerial attack of the war after suffering another major embarrassment at the hands of Kyiv's special forces.

As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, last Friday, Ukrainian drones destroyed two Russian Su-34 fighter bombers and damaged two others in a long-range operation orchestrated by Ukraine's Secret Service and Special Forces. The drone strikes, which took place more than 560 miles from the front lines, dealt another blow to Moscow's strategic bomber fleet and once again demonstrated Kiev's ability to hit valuable assets deep inside Russian territory.

But the Putin regime quickly retaliated on Sunday, launching their largest aerial attack on Ukraine since Putin's bloody conflict began over three years ago. The heavy bombardment included 477 drones and 60 cruise and ballistic missiles, which were fired at multiple Ukrainian cities.

But Russia's attack was not exactly an unmitigated success. Officials with the Ukrainian Air Force said that roughly 90% of the drones were either intercepted, disabled by electronic jamming, or crashed without causing damage. More than 100 of the drones were reportedly decoys meant to confuse Ukrainian air defenses to provide cover for Moscow's missiles.

Following the bombardment, Ukrainian President Zelensky made another plea to Washington and European allies to help bolster Ukraine's air defenses. As regular PDB listeners will know, Moscow's air attacks have rapidly intensified in recent weeks, killing dozens of civilians and injuring hundreds, as the Kremlin looks to press their perceived battlefield advantage. But on the ground, well, things don't appear to be going that smoothly for Russian forces

and their vaunted summer offensive. That offensive only got underway in late May, but according to an exclusive report from the Telegraph, the campaign has failed to produce any significant territorial gains and is exposing deep flaws in Russia's troop training and overall strategy. The offensive spans from the northern border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv to Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

It was designed to break through Ukraine's front-line defenses and quickly capture several key cities, critical to fulfilling Moscow's broader territorial ambitions. Russia is also attempting to create a buffer zone in northern Ukraine to try and thwart Kyiv's drone attacks and cross-border raids. But while Russia continues to throw thousands of troops into the meat grinder,

staging a record number of frontline assaults since May, their momentum has significantly slowed. Despite some modest gains in Donetsk, Moscow's forces have yet to achieve a major breakthrough in the region. And in the Sumy region, Ukraine's top general said Russian advances have halted entirely while Ukraine has managed to recapture some territory.

Officials say Russia's failure largely comes down to the inexperience of the infantry that they tapped to lead the advance. While the Russian military holds an overwhelming numerical advantage over Ukraine, estimated at roughly 20 to 1 in some sectors, their massive losses since the start of the war have forced them to turn to less seasoned fighters.

A senior Ukrainian officer told The Telegraph, "...the Russian offensive has broadly stalled. They have the advantage in manpower and drones, but their infantry is very poorly trained, if at all."

The scale of the offensive has also stretched Russian forces thin, and they're increasingly relying on refurbished weapons, artillery, and armored vehicles. Taken together, the high attrition rate and inexperience of their poorly equipped frontline force is making it difficult for the Kremlin to sustain any kind of battlefield pressure on Ukraine. Given the current state of their offensive, an unnamed Ukrainian officer told the Telegraph that Russia would likely need to deploy more than 100,000 additional troops

in order to achieve their objectives. A senior Russian analyst at the Institute for the Study of War concluded, "...the capacity to start something new and distinct really isn't there for the Russians right now. The summer offensive is just going to be the continuation of what they've been doing in spring."

Alright, after the break, Israel and Syria are reportedly in advanced talks to end decades of hostilities. But a new report reveals that the Syrian commanders at the table may be tied to a brutal massacre of some 1,500 civilians. I'll be right back.

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After decades of hostility, Israel and Syria are now reportedly engaged in direct negotiations over a limited bilateral agreement focused on security coordination, with talks accelerating under U.S. mediation. A senior Israeli official confirmed to the Times of Israel on Monday that the talks are focused squarely on southern Syria, where Israeli troops continue to hold territory vacated by former President Assad's forces following the collapse of his regime.

The southern territory in question, often referred to as the 1974 buffer zone, was originally established under a UN-brokered disengagement accord following the Yom Kippur War. The IDF re-entered the area, citing national security concerns. Now, the UN called that a violation. However, Israel insists that the agreement was defunct the moment that Assad lost control.

The senior official stated, quote, could talks develop into something beyond security arrangements? We'll wait and see, stressing that nothing is yet set in stone. But the mere fact that these contacts exist is a breakthrough. As we discussed on last week's PDB, Israeli National Security Advisor Saki Hanegbi confirmed that the two sides are in direct daily contact. Now, this opening of dialogue, it didn't come out of nowhere. In the spring, Syriza's

Syria's new Islamist rulers floated interest in talks via European intermediaries. The US moved swiftly, inserting itself as the lead broker.

What followed was an unprecedented diplomatic maneuver. President Trump met with Syria's new Islamist president, Ahmed al-Sharra, in Saudi Arabia, a move that would have been unthinkable just a year ago. And in a further step, Trump signed an executive order on Monday formally lifting all U.S. sanctions on Syria, excluding those that are targeting Assad and his inner circle.

In a statement, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said the order was intended to, quote, promote and support Syria's path to peace and stability, adding that Trump remains, quote, committed to supporting a Syria that is stable, unified, and at peace with itself and its neighbors. But while the optics are encouraging, the substance remains murky.

Sources in Beirut say there's no internal consensus in Damascus on normalization with Israel. While some senior officials in Shiraz government have reportedly warmed to the idea of a peace track, possibly modeled on the Abraham Accords, others are pushing for a narrower deal, such as a cessation of hostilities with no immediate diplomatic recognition.

Now, why the hesitation, you ask? Well, I'm glad you asked. There appear to be two reasons. First, Arab public opinion is seething over Israel's military campaign in Gaza. Second, there's domestic pushback from factions inside Damascus that are aligned with Turkey, which has spent years bankrolling Syrian rebel groups and is wary of growing Israeli and Saudi influence in post-Assad Syria.

And yet Damascus appears more flexible than at any point in recent years. Unlike in past negotiation rounds, there's been no demand for the return of the Golan Heights. And that's a red line for Israel.

Instead, one Syrian official told Israeli broadcaster Khan that Shabazz's regime is seeking the recognition of its legitimacy, phased IDF withdrawal from southern Syria, formalized security arrangements, and an economic support package from Washington. But perhaps the most stunning development is Syria's apparent about-face on Iran. A senior Syrian official told Khan that the new regime is, quote, "...opposed to Iran and its proxy terror groups, Hezbollah and Hamas."

If true, well, that would represent a staggering departure from Assad's deeply entrenched alliance with Tehran. It's also a reversal that seemed out of reach. Just months ago, Israel branded Shiraz's Islamist government as terrorists due to its links with al-Qaeda-affiliated factions. Israeli jets pummeled Syrian targets in a series of strikes, but those attacks have since tapered off as diplomatic traction increased. Okay, staying on Syria.

What Israel's new peace partner looks like is coming into sharper focus. A Reuters investigation has traced the early March massacres of nearly 1,500 Alawites to fighters now serving in the new Islamist-led government. The findings trace a chilling arc of violence across 40 sites along Syria's Mediterranean coast, where waves of revenge attacks unfolded from the 7th to the 9th of March. Reuters reports that the perpetrators included former rebel factions,

Turkish-backed militias, foreign jihadists, and Sunni civilians, many of whom have since been absorbed into Syria's reconstituted army and police apparatus. In an interview days after the massacres, President Ahmed al-Shabra, the Sunni and former HTS commander, condemned the bloodshed and pledged to hold perpetrators accountable, quote, "...even among those closest to us."

But according to Reuters, it was his own former subordinates, some of whom now serve in Syria's interior and defense ministries, who played direct roles in the killings. As we discussed here on the PDB, the violence was set in motion on the 6th of March, when Syria's defense ministry issued a directive ordering the dismantling of a so-called Fulul uprising. That's a term used to refer to remnants of the Assad regime. But for many fighters, the order was read as a blank check,

for sectarian bloodletting. Witnesses and participants told Reuters that within hours, tens of thousands of armed men surged into the coastal region in convoys loaded with tanks and munitions.

Entire villages were emptied. In some cases, Sunni families moved into the homes of slain or displaced Alawite families within days. The targeting was clearly systematic. Survivors say the first question many gunmen asked was, "Are you Sunni or Alawite?" The slaughter bore all the hallmarks of a coordinated military campaign. Syria's new government divided the region into sectors and handed control to senior officials.

Telegram chats obtained by Reuters showed Defense Ministry personnel directing movements and issuing orders that encouraged, rather than restrained, violence. Among the most active killers, HTS offshoots now operating under Syria's Interior Ministry. The General Security Service, Unit 400, and the Othman Brigade, all formerly tied to al-Sharaa's old network, were found responsible for some 900 deaths across 10 massacre sites.

According to a foreign intelligence official, Unit 400 now operates from the former Syrian Naval Academy, reporting directly to top defense ministry Brass. Turkish-backed militias were involved in at least eight other sites where nearly 700 people were killed. These factions, now part of the Syrian National Army, have previously been sanctioned by the U.S. for war crimes committed during the civil war.

Sunni rebel groups were connected to four additional locations with responsibility for approximately 350 deaths. And foreign fighters, such as Chechens, Uzbeks, and Arabs, were active in six massacre zones where nearly 500 more were killed. In other areas, local Sunni civilians carried out sectarian revenge attacks, often without formal command structures.

Despite the scale of the bloodshed, Damascus offered no public comment. President Sharaf claims an internal probe is underway, with over 1,000 officials and witnesses contributing to a report that's expected within a couple of weeks. But the facts on the ground paint a fairly damning picture. The very individuals responsible for these atrocities, well, are now embedded in the new Syrian government.

All right, coming up next in the back of the brief, a bit of good news in a region that isn't often in the news. A decades-long conflict in Africa that's claimed millions of lives may finally be nearing resolution. More on that when we come back.

Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, it's likely that you've heard me talking about the upcoming BRICS Nations summit that's going to be held in Rio de Janeiro, right? Look, we're days away from what's been dubbed, or is being called, the Rio Reset. It's a catchy name. The greatest threat to the U.S. dollar's global dominance in over 80 years could be this Rio Reset. On July 6th, the BRICS Nations, and that includes Russia and China and India and Iran and many others,

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In today's Back of the Brief, it appears an end may be in sight to the years-long conflict between the Congo and Rwanda that's killed millions and displaced hundreds of thousands. On Friday, leaders from Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a U.S.-mediated peace agreement that aims to permanently end the fighting and open the African nations up to billions of dollars of Western investment.

Under the accord, both countries agreed to implement a 2024 deal that would see Rwandan troops withdraw from Eastern Congo and the Congolese military conclude their military operations within 90 days. They'll also form a joint security coordination mechanism within 30 days to enforce the terms of the agreement.

Additionally, both countries have tentatively agreed to establish an economic framework in the next 90 days that expands foreign trade and investment in the region's rich supply of critical minerals like gold, cobalt, copper, and lithium. That's according to a report from Reuters. President Trump hailed the work of his administration to bring the peace deal to fruition, particularly Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and said it will give the U.S. potential access to significant mineral rights in the region.

This is a vital interest, of course, for the U.S., as the White House seeks to counter China's relative monopoly over the trade of critical rare earth elements. Rubio said that if all goes well, the heads of state of Rwanda and the Congo would come to Washington, quote, in a few weeks to finalize the complete protocol and agreement. Trump, meanwhile, warned that there would be, quote, very severe penalties, financial and otherwise, if the agreement is violated.

For some background, the fighting has raged for decades between more than 100 armed groups in eastern Congo, stemming in part from deeply ingrained resentments over the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Now Rwanda has sent at least 7,000 soldiers over the border in recent years to back some of these groups, the most prominent of which are the M23 rebels. Earlier this year, M23 seized eastern Congo's two largest cities

and lucrative mining areas in a lightning offensive that many feared might trigger a wider regional war drawing in Congo's neighbors.

Rwanda has long claimed they are simply protecting their border and going after ethnic Hutus for their participation in the 1994 genocide, accusing Congolese forces of giving them cover. But the UN accused Rwanda in December of benefiting from minerals fraudulently exported from areas under M23 control, an accusation that officials in Rwanda deny.

While hopes are high that the new agreement will bring an end to what the UN has called, quote, one of the most protracted, complex, serious humanitarian crises on Earth,

We should stress that major hurdles remain. Most notably, the M23 rebels were not officially part of the discussions mediated by the Trump administration. Qatar is currently leading a parallel mediation effort with Congolese officials and M23. And while some progress has been reported, it's unclear where those talks currently stand.

But analysts all agree that a direct deal with M23 is essential before a broader peace agreement and economic framework can be finalized and fully implemented.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, the 1st of July. And don't forget, as if I'd let you, to listen to the show ad-free, it's simple. Just become a Premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. And if you get a few minutes in your busy day, I hope you'll head over to our insanely popular YouTube channel, that's at President's Daily Brief, to check it out and subscribe.

As YouTube channels go, well, it's a humdinger. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.