PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 25th, 2025: Was The U.S. Strike On Fordow Effective? & NATO Spending Breakthrough
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It's Wednesday, the 25th of June. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, there are conflicting reports over the success of America's strikes on Iran's underground nuclear facilities. A leaked intelligence assessment is casting doubt on just how much damage was done. We'll break down what's in the report, why it's being questioned, and what the leak itself might tell us.

Later in the show, a big win for the White House and the Alliance overall at the annual NATO summit in the Netherlands as member states agree to a major boost in military spending.

But first, today's afternoon spotlight. I want to return to the topic of the US bombing of those Iranian nuclear facilities. Perhaps you've heard of it. As we touched on this morning, we now have conflicting accounts of just how much damage those strikes caused, especially at the site in Fordow, which, as you may know, was built deep into the side of a mountain to withstand exactly this kind of assault.

Yesterday, a number of media outlets began reporting on a leaked assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency, known as the DIA because, of course, they have an acronym, suggesting that the strikes may not have fully destroyed the heart of Iran's nuclear program and, in fact, may have only set back the Iranian regime's program by a couple of months. Jennifer Griffin from Fox News broke down the contents of the leaked assessment in fairly clear terms.

According to her reporting, the classified bomb damage assessment, known as a BDA, because why wouldn't they have an acronym for that, concludes that Iran's nuclear program could be back up and running within months, on the low end as soon as one to two months, on the high end, perhaps less than a year.

That assessment, she reports, is based on post-strike satellite imagery and signals intelligence, with a particular focus on that Fordow facility. Now, the report says that those massive bunker buster bombs did successfully collapse the entrances to the underground facility, and some infrastructure inside was also reportedly damaged. However, the DIA believes the site was not completely destroyed. According to their early analysis, the key words being early analysis,

the Iranians could potentially excavate the site and repair it, restoring power and eventually operations.

Perhaps most concerning, the report also notes that an unknown amount of Iran's approximately 440 kilos of highly enriched uranium was moved prior to the strikes. One possibility floated in the assessment is that it was transferred to what Iranian officials had called a, quote, third site, which the regime disclosed to the International Atomic Energy Agency just ahead of those U.S. strikes. Now, that's the leaked report, and I'll get to its limitations in a moment.

But what about the U.S. administration's position on this? Well, the White House is standing by its own assessment of the strike's effectiveness. President Trump reaffirmed today that he believes the site was, in his words, quote, completely obliterated. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed that view, as did White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt.

But, even within Israel, whose intelligence services were closely involved in monitoring the strike and who have traditionally had the most detailed and well-sourced intel on Iran's program, well, even in Israel, we're seeing mixed messages. One Israeli official told ABC News that the results at Fordow were "really not good." But, a second source, also speaking with ABC and described as having direct knowledge of the Israeli intelligence assessment, gave a much more confident read.

That source said the strike "got the job done" and they added that it was also damaged beyond repair. The Israeli assessment, they said, is based on what they called "excellent intelligence sources inside Iran, including spies, communications intercepts from Iranian leadership, and cyber capabilities."

That same source offered this, telling, quote, You don't have to go down into Fordow to know what happened. If Israel was not satisfied with the results of the U.S. strikes, Israel would have bombed Fordow again, end quote. And finally, as if we didn't already have enough differing opinions, the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission assesses that, quote, the American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities

combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years." So, you ask yourself, what exactly is accurate here? What should we believe? We've got diverging opinions inside the U.S. intelligence community and even within the Israeli national security establishment.

Now, to be fair, differing assessments in the intel world are fairly common, and basically, they're a hallmark of the effort over the years to gain a clear, credible, and accurate view into Iran's nuclear program. But let's go back to that leaked DIA report for a moment. The first thing you need to know to understand context is that the assessment was labeled, quote, low confidence. And in intelligence speak, well, that's an important descriptor.

A low-confidence assessment means analysts don't have enough verified, high-quality information to reach a solid conclusion. It's essentially educated guesswork. The evidence may be thin, contradictory, or based on sources that aren't fully vetted. It doesn't mean that the report is necessarily wrong, but it does mean that it's speculative. Analysts are essentially saying, "Look, this is one possible interpretation, but we're not betting all the marbles on it."

So, when a report like that gets leaked, while still being categorized as low confidence, well, it's a major red flag. It's not supposed to be treated as fact. It's supposed to be kept in-house while the full picture develops.

Second point, the timing and framing of this leak raises serious questions about motive. This wasn't a full review. It was a preliminary snapshot, likely updated daily as new intelligence comes in. Yet someone chose to leak it just days after the strikes, and they did so in a way that casts doubt on the mission's success. That suggests someone wanted to get ahead of the official narrative, maybe to discredit the administration, maybe to apply political pressure, or maybe, for whatever reason,

to create confusion. And for whatever that reason may be, selectively leaking a speculative early-stage report is a classic move in the world of information warfare.

The ultimate truth on this matter is that we won't know the full extent of the damage or the status of Iran's nuclear program for weeks, maybe even months, until inspectors can get back on the ground and frankly, that's always provided a limited view anyway, and until more intelligence is gathered from credible human sources with access, while everything else is just guesswork, some of it informed and some of it not. Now, one last thing I want to note, Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed today

that the FBI is launching an investigation into how this classified intelligence made its way into the press. And it's not hard to see why. Look, leaks like this can do real damage, not just to national security, but to US credibility with allies and adversaries alike. They risk exposing sources and methods, and they can twist the public's understanding of events before the facts are fully known.

So, whether this leak was the result of politics, sloppiness, or something more deliberate, the US government is treating it as a serious counterintelligence breach.

And here's the thing about CI investigations. Finding the source of the leak can be a laborious process, but the first step is fairly straightforward: determine who was given proper access to the report. How widely disseminated was the material? Well, you put together that list and then you work your way through each individual. Leaks need to be dealt with in a serious, methodical, and consistent manner. And there need to be serious and consistent consequences.

All right, up next, we've got updates from the NATO summit as allies agree to ramp up military budgets in response to growing global threats. I'll be right back.

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Politics and the people behind the headlines. I'm Miranda Devine, New York Post columnist and the host of the brand new podcast, Podforce One. Every week, I'll sit down for candid conversations with Washington's most powerful disruptors, lawmakers, newsmakers, and even the president of the United States.

of the United States. These are the leaders shaping the future of America and the world. Listen to Podforce One with me, Miranda Devine, every week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. You don't want to miss an episode.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. In a watershed shift for NATO, leaders of the alliance today unfailed a sweeping new defense pledge, committing 5% of GDP on military and security-related spending by the year 2035. Now, that more than doubles the previous 2% benchmark, and the new target marks the largest financial overhaul in NATO's history, and it comes after years of Trump calling out what he described as freeloading by European allies.

The new target is intended to, quote, ensure individual and collective obligations, according to the final declaration. Leaders also reaffirmed their, quote, ironclad commitment to collective defense and formally designated Russia as a, quote, long-term threat. AFP reports that. Trump hailed the agreement as a personal triumph. At a press conference following the summit, the president stated that one leader confessed to him, quote, Sir, we've been trying to get it up to 3% for 20 years, and you got it up to 5%.

Trump then urged allies to buy American-made hardware, stating bluntly, quote, we have the best hardware in the world, end quote. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed Trump's victory lap, telling reporters, quote, he was totally right. Now we are correcting that. In private messages shared by Trump, Rutte went even further, congratulating the president for, quote, making Europe pay in a big way and declaring you're flying into another big success in The Hague.

Indeed, under the new framework, NATO members must now submit annual plans detailing how they intend to hit that 5% threshold, and that includes 3.5% in core defense funding and another 1.5% in related priorities like infrastructure and cybersecurity.

A formal progress check is scheduled for the year 2029. The declaration casts the new spending as an urgent necessity, with threats from Russia and China front and center. But Trump went further, framing it as an investment in deterrence. He warned, quote, it will help prevent future disasters like the horrible situation with Russia and Ukraine.

And for those of you wondering whether Trump's commitment to NATO's mutual defense clause, that Article 5, still stands, the president answered that question head-on during his presser. Trump stated, quote, these people really love their countries and we're here to help them protect their countries, end quote. Ruta, when asked about Trump's stance, offered the simple reply of, quote, he's a good friend, I trust him, end quote.

But Trump wasn't done. In another headline-grabbing development, he revealed plans to speak directly with Russian leader Vladimir Putin sometime soon in a bid to end the war in Ukraine. That announcement followed a 50-minute meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky held on the sidelines of the NATO summit.

Zelensky posted on social media afterward that the two discussed a ceasefire and steps toward peace. Trump called it a, quote, very nice meeting and floated the possibility of sending more U.S.-made Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, calling them, quote, 100% effective.

And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Wednesday, the 25th of June. If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And don't forget, should you be so inclined, you can listen to the show ad-free. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.