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cover of episode Ep. 176: Is the U.S.-Israel relationship heading for trouble? w/Ambassador Michael Oren

Ep. 176: Is the U.S.-Israel relationship heading for trouble? w/Ambassador Michael Oren

2025/6/5
logo of podcast Think Twice with Jonathan Tobin (f.k.a. Top Story)

Think Twice with Jonathan Tobin (f.k.a. Top Story)
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Michael Oren: 我认为美以关系正面临挑战，主要体现在美国对伊朗政策上的意外性和不确定性。奥巴马政府时期，我们经常在政策上措手不及，但拜登政府在这方面有所改善。然而，特朗普政府在与伊朗和叙利亚的政策上，以及与哈马斯的直接对话和人质谈判中，都让我们感到意外。这些意外导致了美以之间的分歧，尤其是在伊朗问题上。我担心美国对伊朗的政策可能会让伊朗重建其军事力量，并支持其在中东地区的代理人，这最终可能导致重蹈2023年10月7日的覆辙。虽然特朗普总统可能希望通过外交手段避免战争，但外交在伊朗问题上总是失败。我认为美国的力量没有被认真对待，这令人担忧。以色列始终最关心的是美国是否被视为强大且有信誉。我们必须认真考虑冒犯特朗普总统的后果，因为以色列在世界舞台上是孤立的，并且在弹药和导弹防御方面依赖美国。尽管如此，以色列有权自卫，但必须考虑到现实情况，包括其军队的疲惫和孤立。总的来说，我认为以色列不太可能将特朗普加入到对其不满的国家名单中，但我们必须为可能出现的各种情况做好准备。

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This chapter explores the changing dynamics of the US-Israel relationship, highlighting instances of 'daylight' and 'surprises' that challenge the traditional principles of mutual trust and transparency. The central question is whether Israel can afford to oppose President Trump's decisions, particularly regarding Iran.
  • Daylight and surprises in US-Israel relations challenge traditional principles.
  • Concerns about Trump's negotiations with Iran and Hamas.
  • Israel's reliance on American power.
  • Question of whether Israel can say no to Trump.

Shownotes Transcript

Can Israel afford to say “no” to the president who has been its best friend since the founding of the modern Jewish state? According to JNS editor-in-chief Jonathan Tobin, that’s a question that may have to be answered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if President Donald Trump’s optimism about his negotiations with the Iranian regime is vindicated by events.