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cover of episode Is Buying the Dip a Science?

Is Buying the Dip a Science?

2025/6/4
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TLDR
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C
Claire Porter Robbins
J
Jared Sullivan
M
Matt Karras
M
Matt Keres
Topics
Matt Karras: 作为一名金融分析师，我观察到“Taco交易”是一种利用特朗普总统政策摇摆不定的市场策略。特朗普经常先宣布强硬政策，导致市场下跌，但随后又迅速退让，引发市场反弹。如果投资者能准确预测到这种反转，就能从中获利。然而，随着这种策略越来越为人所知，市场可能不再像以前那样敏感，导致获利空间缩小。此外，特朗普本人也可能因为这种策略而改变其行为模式，使得预测变得更加困难。我始终认为，特朗普希望股市上涨，尽管他对加拿大、墨西哥和中国仍然有征收关税，但并没有像之前威胁的80-90%或130%的关税那样具有破坏性。 Jared Sullivan: 作为一名财经记者，我虽然建议读者不要恐慌抛售，但我确实一度认为特朗普会把经济拖垮。不过，Matt的观点更有前瞻性，他始终认为特朗普会倾向于让股市上涨。现在“Taco交易”策略广为人知，这可能会改变市场的反应方式，使得这种策略不再像以前那样有效。市场可能会提前消化特朗普政策变动的风险，或者特朗普可能会采取更强硬的立场，使得市场无法反弹。因此，投资者需要谨慎对待这种策略，并密切关注市场动态。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The Taco Trade, an acronym for "Trump Always Chickens Out," refers to a trading strategy based on President Trump's tendency to announce tough policies that initially tank the markets, only to backtrack later, triggering sharp reversals. This episode analyzes the trade's effectiveness and explores whether its popularity might impact its future success.
  • The Taco Trade strategy exploits President Trump's tendency to announce harsh policies and then retract them.
  • The strategy involves "fading" the initial market downturn caused by Trump's announcements.
  • The trade's popularity raises questions about its long-term viability; increased consensus could diminish its effectiveness.

Shownotes Transcript

Of all the tasty money news this week, the most satisfying was the TACO trade. (For the uninitiated, that’s “Trump Always Chickens Out.”) On this week’s TLDR, we look at the art and science behind the move — and whether its popularity might spell its demise. Plus, we do a deep dive into FinTok archetypes to help decode the personal finance advice proliferating on social media. And, we learn about the remote working scheme that… helped fund the North Korean regime?! We’ve got it all.

This episode was hosted by Devin Friedman, former hedgefunder Matthew Karasz, journalist Claire Porter Robbins and author Jared Sullivan. Follow us on other platforms, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter: linkin.bio/tldr

The TLDR Podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR Podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.