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cover of episode You Need to Understand Bonds! (Sorry.)

You Need to Understand Bonds! (Sorry.)

2025/4/16
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TLDR
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M
Matthew Karasz
S
Sarah Rieger
W
Waleed Hijazi
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Matthew Karasz: 近期债券市场剧烈波动，债券价格下跌，收益率上升。这是史无前例的事件，引发了广泛恐慌。美国总统甚至因此改变了关税政策。这表明债券市场被视为重要的经济指标，其波动直接影响政府决策。 债券市场通常被视为避险资产，但在当前情况下，债券价格下跌表明投资者对经济前景的担忧超过了对政府偿债能力的信心。 债券价格下跌导致收益率上升，进而影响其他利率，例如汽车贷款、抵押贷款和企业贷款利率。这将增加借贷成本，减少消费者和企业的支出，最终可能导致经济衰退。 美国和加拿大经济紧密相连，美国经济衰退将严重影响加拿大。加拿大债券市场规模较小，因此美国债券市场动荡也会波及加拿大。 只有债券市场动荡才能迫使特朗普改变主意，这说明债券市场对政府决策的影响力巨大。 Waleed Hijazi: 加拿大经济目前面临放缓，通货膨胀上升，失业率上升，经济衰退的风险正在增加。 关税是导致经济不确定性的重要因素，即使特朗普暂停了关税，经济衰退的风险依然存在。 历史数据显示，经济衰退可能导致严重失业，而关税可能导致产业结构性调整，造成长期性的经济损失。 关税导致全球供应链重组，可能导致企业裁员和投资减少，加剧经济衰退的风险。 加拿大经济过度依赖美国，需要经济多元化和减少贸易壁垒，以提高经济韧性。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the possibility of an impending recession, focusing on the impact of the bond market's downturn and the role of US tariffs. Experts weigh in on the economic indicators and potential consequences.
  • Bond market sell-off as a key indicator of economic recession
  • Impact of US tariffs on global supply chains
  • Interconnectedness of US and Canadian economies

Shownotes Transcript

Tariff whiplash has left everything feeling very, very uncertain. On this week’s TLDR, a look at what the future might hold — and whether we’re headed for a, gulp, recession. Plus, did the bond markets really get U.S. President Trump to change his course on tariffs? And, Sarah gives us a break from it all with a winding journey through the company fueling the wedding industry.

This episode was hosted by Devin Friedman, business reporter Sarah Rieger and former hedgefunder Matthew Karasz, with an appearance by economist Walid Hejazi. Follow us on other platforms, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter: linkin.bio/tldr

The TLDR Podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR Podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.