Can Trump get a Gaza ceasefire?
Today, Explained
Deep Dive
Why might a ceasefire in Gaza be closer now than in previous months?
Hamas has dropped a major sticking point by no longer demanding that all Israeli forces leave the Gaza Strip, which could pave the way for a ceasefire and hostage exchange. Additionally, the destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon has left Hamas standing alone, creating a new strategic reality.
What is the main demand of Hamas in the ceasefire negotiations?
Hamas demands an official and final end to the war in Gaza, with international safeguards and commitments that the war will not be renewed after the last Israeli hostage is released. This differs from Israel's stance, which is willing to accept a temporary ceasefire but not an official end to the war.
How does the Israeli government view the release of hostages?
The release of hostages is the top priority for the Israeli public, with significant pressure from the families of the hostages. However, some far-right elements within the government have different priorities, such as building settlements in Gaza, which complicates Netanyahu's position.
What role might Donald Trump play in the Gaza ceasefire?
Trump has expressed strong commitment to finding a hostage deal and ending the war in Gaza, which has influenced regional actors to show goodwill. However, it remains unclear how much he will prioritize this issue once in office, given other potential priorities.
How popular is Donald Trump among Israelis?
Trump is highly popular in Israel, more so than any Israeli politician. Israelis view him as a strong supporter of Israel during his previous term and appreciate his direct, unfiltered communication style.
What are Palestinian views on Trump's return to office?
Palestinians have mixed feelings, remembering Trump's tough stance toward them during his first term. However, some are cautiously optimistic that he might take a different approach this time, potentially addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict alongside other regional issues.
What was Trump's approach to Israel during his first term?
Trump was highly pro-Israel, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and turning a blind eye to settlement expansion in the West Bank. He also facilitated the Abraham Accords, which sidelined the Palestinians in regional peace efforts.
What challenges might Trump face in the Middle East during his second term?
The regional landscape has become more complex, with issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the war in Gaza complicating efforts to expand the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia, for example, now demands a two-state solution, which Israel is not prepared to entertain.
What is the trust deficit between Trump and Netanyahu?
Trump and Netanyahu have a history of mistrust, with Trump fearing Netanyahu might double-cross him and Netanyahu worrying Trump could act against Israel's interests, such as negotiating with Iran. This tension remains despite efforts to placate each other.
Who might claim credit for a Gaza ceasefire if it happens before Trump's inauguration?
Both Trump and the Biden administration might claim credit, but the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) could be seen as the primary force driving the potential ceasefire due to their military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah.
- Israeli negotiating team in Qatar
- Palestinian negotiator mentions decisive phase of talks
- Netanyahu's planned Cairo trip (denied)
- CIA director's travel to Qatar
- Hamas demands complete end to war for hostage release
- Israel offers temporary ceasefire only
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