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cover of episode Demographics aren't destiny

Demographics aren't destiny

2024/10/23
logo of podcast Today, Explained

Today, Explained

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A
Amy Walter
C
Christian Paz
S
Sean Rameswaram
Topics
Sean Rameswaram: 本期节目讨论了民主党候选人,特别是哈里斯副总统,在一些传统上支持民主党的群体中支持率下降的问题。拉丁裔选民的支持率下降尤其引人关注,这与过去认为人口统计学决定选举结果的观点相悖。节目探讨了导致这一现象的多种因素,并分析了哈里斯竞选团队为应对这一挑战所采取的策略。 Christian Paz: 拉丁裔选民的投票意向并非一成不变。他们对特朗普总统的经济政策评价较高,而对哈里斯的了解较少。哈里斯的竞选策略是关注具体议题,例如经济和住房,而不是过度强调种族和身份认同。此外,拉丁裔社区的地理分布日益多样化,这需要竞选团队采取更具针对性的策略。 Amy Walter: 哈里斯在黑人选民中的支持率虽然仍然很高,但与拜登相比有所下降。她在拥有大学学历的白人选民中的支持率则高于拜登。然而,少数族裔选民对民主党的支持率下降,这给哈里斯的竞选带来了挑战。她能否通过争取共和党选民的支持来弥补这一损失,是本次选举的关键问题。教育程度可能比性别或种族更能决定选民的政治倾向。 Sean Rameswaram: 本节目讨论了民主党候选人支持率下降的原因和应对策略,特别关注拉丁裔选民的投票行为变化。分析了哈里斯竞选团队的策略调整,以及特朗普竞选团队如何试图利用移民问题和边境安全等议题来争取拉丁裔选民的支持。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why might the plan to get Latinos to vote for Democrats not be working?

Many immigrants settling in the U.S. are becoming diverse and complicated, not necessarily aligning with Democratic voters.

Why are Latino voters becoming more diverse in their political views?

As they settle, start families, and assimilate, they mirror the complexity of the U.S. they aim to be part of.

Why might some Latinos align more with Trump's policies?

Polling shows Latino voters aligning more with white voters, reflecting positively on Trump's economic policies.

Why are Latino voters' economic concerns more significant than identity politics?

Many Latinos immigrated seeking a better life, making economic opportunities a primary concern.

Why is Kamala Harris focusing on the 'opportunity economy'?

It aligns with the aspirational mindset of Latino communities, emphasizing economic opportunities.

Why might Latino voters be less of a distinct bloc in elections?

As Latinos integrate more into U.S. society, they mirror broader electorate concerns, losing some distinctiveness.

Why is turnout crucial in this election?

Traditional voters tend to be older and whiter, and their turnout can significantly impact the election outcome.

Why might unions not fully endorse Kamala Harris?

There's a distinction between blue-collar voters and union members, with different drivers influencing their votes.

Why is the realignment of voters along education lines significant?

It could shift party affiliations, with Democrats aligning more with managerial classes and Republicans with working classes across races.

Why have the polls remained relatively stable despite various political shocks?

Over 90% of voters stick with their 2020 candidate, showing strong partisanship and minimal movement.

Chapters
The chapter discusses the evolving political behavior of Latino voters and their potential shift from being a reliable Democratic voting bloc to becoming swing voters.
  • Latino voters are becoming more diverse and complicated, mirroring the broader U.S. population.
  • There is a narrative that President Biden's immigration policies aimed to bring in Latinos to win elections, but polling suggests this strategy may not be effective.
  • The idea of 'demographics as destiny' is being challenged as voters break past patterns.

Shownotes Transcript

Latinos and other groups that typically vote for Democrats are showing weaker support for Kamala Harris. Vox's Christian Paz and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter explain how that's shaking up this election.

This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy and Eliza Dennis, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram.

Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast

Support Today, Explained by becoming a Vox Member today: http://www.vox.com/member.) This story is part of *The Present - and future - of the American Left *package. More here: https://trib.al/vnUL3o6.)

Supporters of Kamala Harris put up posters in Latino neighborhoods in Philadelphia. Photo by Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images.

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