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cover of episode Tariffs, de-dollarization, and gold: Navigating market volatility

Tariffs, de-dollarization, and gold: Navigating market volatility

2025/7/3
logo of podcast UBS On-Air: Market Moves

UBS On-Air: Market Moves
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
G
Giovanni Stonovo
K
Kurt Reinman
T
Tech Lang Tan
W
Wayne Gordon
Topics
Giovanni Stonovo: 我认为目前伊朗和以色列的冲突局势有所缓和，美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，伊朗的反应相对缓和，并通过卡塔尔向美国传递信息。特朗普总统在社交媒体上暗示以色列和伊朗已达成停火协议。虽然市场普遍认为冲突已经结束，但我认为伊朗的核计划问题尚未解决，伊朗议会正在讨论禁止国际原子能机构进入该国审查其核计划。如果局势再次升级，石油市场的主要风险在于伊朗石油生产中断，以及霍尔木兹海峡的运输受阻。如果伊朗的石油出口降至零，地区冲突的风险可能会降低。 Kurt Reinman: 我认为美国成功摧毁了伊朗相当数量的核能力，且没有人员伤亡，初步反应是感到宽慰。总统承诺美国在此事中的有限参与，这得到了国会共和党人的普遍支持。MAGA党内的大部分人更希望美国关注自身问题，不介入国外冲突。由于这次军事行动的范围和规模有限，共和党内部没有出现明显的分裂。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent conflict between Iran and Israel, focusing on the immediate aftermath of the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities and the subsequent responses. It examines the potential risks to the oil market and the uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear program.
  • US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities
  • Iran's muted response
  • Uncertainty about Iran's nuclear program
  • Potential disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Increased cooperation between Iran and neighboring states

Shownotes Transcript

While optimism over easing tariff risks has buoyed markets so far, the US administration’s tough trade stance and the Israel-Iran conflict continue to fuel volatility and uncertainty. How can investors balance opportunity and risk amid these shifting dynamics? Plus, will the US dollar fall further, and what are the key strategies for diversifying beyond the USD?