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The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and decentralization.

Learn more: Bitcoin Halving: What Is It & How Is It Determined?

Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.

Show highlights:

How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving
Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin's decentralization and price volatility
Whether this cycle could be the "last cycle" or the "supercycle"
Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle
The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin
How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will
Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced
Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern
Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch
Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH
Arthur's rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps
Arthur's and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle

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Guest:

Links

This cycle

Naval’s tweet: “The narrative for this cycle is ‘this is the last cycle.’”
Unchained:
Here’s Why No One Agrees Exactly When The Bitcoin Halving Will Happen
Bitcoin Miners Diversify Their Revenue Streams as Halving Nears
Heatwave by Arthur Hayes
Dissecting Bitcoin's “4 Year Cycle,” guest post by Will Clemente on The Pomp Letter

Bitcoin ETFs:

Macroeconomic conditions

CNBC: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected
FT: Investors lose hope of rapid US interest rate cuts this year

Block size wars

Bloomberg: The Block War Is Still a Sore Subject for ‘Bitcoin Jesus’

Bitcoin L2s

Unchained: Stacks’ Muneeb Ali On Why Bitcoin Is Exciting Once Again

Runes

Decrypt: Bitcoin Runes Launch at the Halving: Here's Everything You Need to Know

Ethena

Hayes’ tweet on Ethena
Unchained:
ENA Surges 20% to New All-Time High as Ethena Rolls Out Reward Boosts
Ethena’s USDe Grew to $2 Billion in 7 Weeks. Is It Safe?
What Is Ethena's USDe Synethic Dollar?

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Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on How This Bitcoin Halving Is Different - Ep. 633 01:07:57 Share

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Shownotes Transcript

Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on How This Bitcoin Halving Is Different - Ep. 633