A Stunned Israel Declares War After Hamas Surprise Attack. What's Next?
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Israeli and hamas are at war. The militant group fired rockets out of the gaza strip as its fighters seized israeli. Israel has only begun to respond.

I am Steve and scape. And this is a special episode of up first from npr news. Our colleague later father is on root t to the middle east. We'll hear her insights on our region SHE covered for many years. Also, president biden promises and waive .

oring support. You stay stands with israel. We will not ever fail to have her back.

How did homos surprise israeli intelligence and how much to the attack changes real in a single day? Analyst on sex gives his insights. Stay with this. We will try to make sense of the first day of war.

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A map of israel shows the extent of a homes attack. This weekend, homes fighters invaded multiple israeli towns, and homos missile struck a wide range of the country. Hundreds of people did, and more than one thousand and wounded on each side of what is now a war.

Here's what we heard from N. P. R. Corresponded Daniel astros in israel on saturday morning.

heavily armed palestinian militants in gaza flew across the border on paragon iders, they swan through the military anian sea, they drove over land in pickup trucks through israel's fortified border fence, and they inflated a several israeli military camps and at least five israeli communities, residential communities, near gaza. And there are still gun battles going on with israeli forces as a palestinian militants still hold up there.

We've heard some pretty astonishing stories. Israel speaking to israeli public broadcasting, talking about being in an outdoor festival, fleeing gunmen by foot and hiding in bushes. Militants going door to door, breaking into homes as people are, were hold up in their reinforced safe rooms.

And in the town of stayed te, N, P, R, spoke to a social worker, doron, shop tea. He was speaking from his reinforce shelter room. He was with his baby. They had run out of milk formula. They had turned off all the lights .

in the house. And here's what he said, that the situation that fighting everyones know the infection out. They would stay home, not to go. D not, do not open, open the window.

So israeli prime minister Benjamin ita o has said, we are at war. Israel has launched strikes on gaza, natano says the first goal is to regain control of those israeli communities, militants are, and then to deliver A, A decisive blow on gaza. But what is really making this astonishing for people here is that hamas has published videos, which N, P, R is not yet confirmed, of israeli soldiers and civilians they are claiming killed and taken hostage alive inside gaza.

okay. So those are some of the voices from inside israel where we were hearing from npr. Daniel astra, one big question is how this could happen. And if you walk the ground in israel and gaza, as Daniel estrin has sometimes escorted me to do, you have a sense of why that is such a big question? Gaza is a small enclave.

IT is sometimes described as a giant OpenAIr p rison, which sounds like hyperbole, until you get there and you see that IT is, in fact, surrounded on some sides by what look like prison walls and guard towers, ends by fencing and israeli troops. All of this LED to a question for natan sex, whose director of the center for middle east policy at the brookings institution. And the question comes here from npr, Scott Simon, now.

could these attacks have occurred? mr. Sex, thanks for being with us.

Thank you for having me. It's the next one question, and one which will be asked a lot is in the next coming months and many years to come. It's unclear this was a dramatic tactical surprise, a huge success by hamas.

IT caught these really defense forces off guard, his really leadership of guard. Tactically, they managed to swarm through the border in ways that really know what I imagined, but also in a broader sense or thought, the gaza strip was not the dangerous on at the moment. IT was focusing on the west bank, and clearly that was wrong.

And in many ways, this is A A true dunes day scenario. Israeli intelligence, and many in israel that was very earlier are talking about this as a second nineteen seventy three. When is all was surprised, of course, then the the stakes were much, much higher and bigger, with egypt and syria attacking.

Well, we certainly recognize that there are human repercussions, which we're seen ready with with each and every minute. But I wonder what kind of shock waves this sense to the israeli security and military establishment, what they begin to do?

Well, i'll say, you know, this looks like, of course, a very dramatic case, but you might seem like one more round between his room. hamas. I think this may .

not be non sax says israel is not the same country as IT was just before this attack. That is how much the military security and political situation has changed. But striking back at homos will not be easy.

Since homos initiated this attack, they almost certainly went into shelter before this happened, and so IT might be hard to get them still. I'd say how much had a huge success in the first hours of the Operation and still ongoing. But IT may turn out to be a perc Victory, the israel determination of israeli society writ large, and this government to go after this leadership of hamas. I think we will be unlike in the past, they'll be hunted, and I think they might be hunted for many years to come. Their success made then, in fact, too great for their goals.

Now as we're talking on saturday evening, our college laa fdl is preparing to travel to the mild east, and she's taking a few minutes now to talk with us about that. Hi, little, little hi. What thoughts first occurred to you when you learned of this attack over the weekend?

Shock, Frankly, Steve, not shock that there was going to be another war between israeli gaza, because we see those every few years. This is an area that has been blocked, ed, now, for sixteen years. But shock that hamas was able to inflame inside israel, go into these towns and kill so many people and take hostages.

This, my immediate thought was, where does this go from here? All of this death. And as we're speaking, more death is happening. The israeli toll has gone up. Now we're hearing about, told inside gaza, which is being bombarded as we speak.

and IT would be politically hard, among other things, for israel to make a limited response to this because of the sheer scale. That's something we heard from a ton sex. Listening to his analysis, he even speculated on npr that homos may have succeeded too much for its purposes because of the response that would now be called for.

I mean, we're in unstarted territory here, Frankly. I mean, this is an extremely far write government. I think we don't know what's coming.

But what we do know, as you said, is that the government is going to want to show force. This is being described by some as a nine eleven moment for israel, and that response will be like that. But there are also hostages inside gaza.

And that I was definitely be part of the calculation. We heard the warning from the israeli government that palestine, you should leave their homes because they're going to reduce places they believe her ass militants are to rubble. And my question also is, where will those palestinians go? Because this is a sealed area.

And can they escape to egypt? I mean, that borders typically sealed. They can't come into israel. So I wonder about that. Meanwhile, right now, there are a bunch of people are looking for their loved ones who have gone missing, possibly taken into gaza.

How's the us. Responding to this? Later.

a president, jovan, made IT very clear that the U. S. Stands with israel and would offer all appropriate support. He also had a warning when he spoke at the White house.

let me say this is clearly as I can. This is not a moment. Any party hostel, the israel, to exploit these attacks, to seek advantage, the world is watching.

And of course, we'll just note, the united states is by far israeli the most important ally, a very, very close ally. Their intelligence agencies collaborate very closely all the time. And in moments of crisis, the united states has come through as israel arms supplier.

Later, I want to ask a little bit about the broader context and add a caveat. First, there has been a lot of speculation about why homos we've struck. Now we don't really know, but let's just talk about what was happening in the region diplomatically in the moments leading up to this attack.

This was happening at a time where a mega deal between saudi abia and israel is being negotiated with possible Normalization. This would be historic auditorium has never recognized israel. And so the question is, does does the cereal that process?

I think a lot of palestinians will say that this moment shows that there can't be real peace without palestinians were not at a point whether is any real peace negotiations between israel and palestinians. It's hard, though, to speculate about where this goes. I think what i've learned in my years covering the midday east, is you don't assume where things might go because you never do. Now we don't know what the coming days will bring other than the fact that more people will die. And this is a devastating moment for israelis and palestinians with all of this loss of life.

Mention you're packing to travel. What questions will be on your mind as you head to the midwest?

Obviously, the first big question is that question that we heard earlier. How did did this happen on what what is supose to be one of the most secure borders with the most open istis ted military equipment? What happened that LED to this? How did he must do this? But my bigger question overall is that the extreme positions on both sides that are, that are hardening and entrenched, where does the middle live now?

Is IT possible for the organizations that have been working together, palestinians and israelis, to try to find a path forward, IT possible that for them to even work together at this moment when emotions are so high, anger is so high, about the death that they're seeing, israelis and palestinians. I want to understand if that if there's even space for that. So I think a lot about the future, which is very hard to do right now, when all I can imagine or all I see are the videos that have been coming out of these towns of the absolute terr that people were going through when militants came into their towns and their communities. I'll also add that I will be very difficult for us to access gaza, which is typically sealed during uh, these conflicts. And so there's a lot we won't know about what people are going through there as they .

live through bombardment in the days of T O.

O. Thank you, Steve.

And lily is expecting to be hosting np s morning edition end up first from the middle ast in the coming days. This is a special edition of up first from N P R news. The episode was edited by Olivia hampton, produced by monthly corona and our executive producer as eric gaga. I'm still lets skip.

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