Megabill Wrangling, State Of Democracy Poll, USAID Ends
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Senate Republicans are closing in on a final vote for President Trump's massive tax and spending bill. It's been months of tense negotiations and a lot of close calls. How did they get here? I'm Michelle Martin, that's Leila Fanel, and this is Up First from NPR News.

According to a new poll, an overwhelming majority of Americans now say democracy is under serious threat. And most people from both political parties also say politically motivated violence is a major problem. What does that say about faith in political leaders and political parties?

And one of the first priorities of the Trump administration was dismantling the United States Agency for International Development. Now, nearly six months later, USAID is officially shutting down. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

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The Republican-led Senate has been in session all night and still going at this hour. They are debating potential changes to President Trump's massive tax and spending bill. Senate Republicans are hoping to pass the plan later today, but first they have to take up a series of amendment votes from both parties that are still going at this hour. Democrats are fighting the plan's passage, and Senate Republicans still face internal divisions to get the plan to President Trump's desk by a self-imposed July 4th deadline.

NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales joins us now to talk about all this. Good morning. Good morning, Leila. Okay, so we've seen Republicans consume this year with trying to get this bill passed, and they're still going. How did they get here?

Right. As you mentioned, they've been jockeying all night. A vote moments ago took down a provision that would have blocked states from regulating artificial intelligence. But really, when we look at the center of the fight for this legislation, it's focused on extending tax cuts that were passed during President Trump's

first term. It's going to cost trillions to install and to pay for it. Republican fiscal hawks want deep cuts in Medicaid. This is the health care program used by low income and disabled Americans, and it's a move more moderate members oppose.

Senate Republican leaders, however, responding to these fiscal hawks, increased the Medicaid cuts with a new provision that could hurt rural hospitals. And that drew opposition from a number of Republicans, which is important because Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only afford to lose three members to get this across the finish line. OK, so in its current form, what could this legislation mean for Americans who rely on Medicaid? Right.

Well, many will be under threat of losing their coverage. This is a large program. It's run in partnership with states. It covers more than 70 million Americans. And we know that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said an estimated 12 million Americans will be forced to lose their health care insurance under this new Senate version. And how else could this mega bill impact American lives?

This really is sweeping legislation. It carries the bulk of President Trump's domestic agenda, and it will touch many facets of life. Aside from the tax cuts, there's retaining a current child tax credit level and shorter-term provisions like no tax on tips or overtime pay, and there's new spending for defense as well as for immigration enforcement. So, for example, boosting efforts along the U.S.-Mexico border,

And Republicans also want to spur investments in traditional sources of energy and undo a lot of the climate initiatives passed as part of former President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. So what happens next?

Well, before this can reach Trump's desk, the House will need to sign off on this Senate version. They're away on recess, but they've been alerted they could be returning as early as Wednesday, assuming the Senate gets this through by then and get going on this bill to start their voting process all over. But

Before they left, Speaker Mike Johnson warned members this could take time and keep their 4th of July plans flexible. And with all these Senate changes, it's not clear this will be a smooth process in the House. We could see fights reemerge over spending versus Medicaid cuts. But we should note there's some critical deadlines approaching. There's a provision to lift the debt ceiling by this summer. That's critical. If it doesn't happen, it could trigger catastrophic financial results. That's right.

That's NPR's Claudia Grisales. Thank you, Claudia. Thank you. Ahead of the Independence Day holiday and the country's 249th birthday, three quarters of Americans say democracy is under serious threat. That's according to a new poll from NPR, PBS News and Marist. A similar number also see politically motivated violence increased.

as a major problem. NPR political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here to talk about these results, as well as the general atmosphere around politics in this country right now. Good morning, Domenico. Hey there. So let's start with this question about the state of democracy. What did the poll ask and what stood out to you about the answers?

The overwhelming majority, 76%, see the country under serious threat. That includes 89% of Democrats, 80% of independents, and 57% of Republicans. And this is coming at a time of great political volatility in the country. People are polarized and sharply divided, so in many ways they're living in different realities about what they perceive to be the threat, regardless of who's right or wrong here.

Democrats see Trump and right-wing extremism as the threat. Republicans, though, were 31 points more likely to say that there was a serious threat to democracy when Democrat Joe Biden was president. So, you know, we have to talk about political violence in this country. There were threats on President Trump's life earlier during the campaign season, two of them, in fact. And over the weekend, there was a funeral for the state lawmaker and her husband who were killed in Minnesota. So how are Americans seeing these attacks?

Yeah, here again, a significant majority, 73%, said they see politically motivated violence as a major problem. While there was little difference by political party, there was some division by race and age. Latinos, black voters, and younger voters, for example, were less likely to say politically motivated violence was a major problem as compared to white and older voters.

And one other thing stood out here on both questions. It was white women, regardless of education level, were most likely to say that there was a serious threat to democracy and that politically motivated violence was a major problem. That's interesting. So given all that, what does the poll tell us about faith in political leaders?

It's not great. I mean, people have very low confidence generally in the political leadership in the country right now, whether it's President Trump, congressional Republicans, or congressional Democrats. You know, first, when it comes to Trump, he gets just a 43% approval. And when digging down to key specific issue areas, he doesn't score very well on any of them. I mean, his handling of immigration is 43%. Foreign policy, just 41%. And his handling of the economy is worst of all at 39%. And what about faith in the political parties?

Well, looking at Republicans in Congress, only 35% said they approve of the job they're doing. And guess what? That's the highest that Marist has recorded since it started asking the question back in 2011. Democrats, meanwhile, who are hoping to capitalize on Trump's relative unpopularity, plus the unpopularity of his mega bill that's making its way through Congress, are facing record lows. Just 27% approve of congressional Democrats. That's their lowest score in seven years back to 2018.

And the reason for that is Democrats themselves. Only 44% of Democrats say that they approve of their party's approach in Congress right now. Compare that to 73% of Republicans who said so of their own party. If Democrats hope to take back the House next year, they've got a lot of work to do to shore up their own House first. That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you. You're welcome. And if you want to dive deep into all of the numbers in the poll, they are on our website, npr.org.

A new study estimates that the U.S. Agency for International Development has helped save more than 90 million lives in the past two decades. This on the agency's last official day.

Yes. When the Trump administration took office in January, one of its first major moves was dismantling USAID. Today, nearly six months later, the agency officially shuts down. A few hundred remaining employees will merge their operations under the State Department. And PR's Fatima Tanis has been covering this and joins us now. Good morning, Fatima. Good morning, Leila. Okay, so tell us what the last days at USAID have been like.

It's been very difficult for agency staff who've been saying goodbye to their colleagues last week. There have been lots of tears. People told me it's hitting them that this is the end. They said they were drawn to the agency's mission, to the idea of helping people in countries all over the world. You know, they brought up the USAID logo, which was on everything from clinics to food and medical packages.

the words from the American people, and that was something staff said they really believed in. So Fatma, without USAID, is U.S. foreign assistance just something of the past now?

You know, a quick reminder, the U.S. was the largest donor of global health and development funding. Much of that was done through USAID, which managed thousands of programs. More than 80% of them are now terminated. The administration has decided some will continue, and the State Department will take on managing those starting today. The administration has made it clear it believes most of U.S. foreign aid has not been aligned with the U.S.

with President Trump's America First policy, but it has not outlined a vision for the future. And what's the impact been of shutting down USAID?

It's hard to overstate. You know, we're talking about cuts to thousands of programs in low-income countries that addressed health issues like malaria and HIV-AIDS, also humanitarian efforts such as feeding malnourished children. We also know that the shutting down of programs has caused deaths. For example, we reported on one child in Nigeria who died because the USAID-funded clinic he went to for urgent medical treatment was shut down. It was the only clinic

And you mentioned earlier that study published in The Lancet. It projects that the cuts to USAID could result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. And while much of the impact has been felt globally, there's concern in academic circles and in Congress that there will be consequences felt here at home. And what are those consequences?

So this actually came up at a hearing last week. Senators questioned Russell Vogt about the cuts to foreign assistance. He's the director of the Office of Management and Budget for the White House. Several Republicans brought up that foreign assistance served two purposes. It helped prevent diseases from reaching the United States and also something called soft power, where you spend money to build positive relationships and create stability in the world. Here's Republican Senator Mitch McConnell talking about it.

McConnell went on to say that he also didn't like all of USAID's programs, but that the way the administration had gone after them had been, quote, unnecessarily chaotic and created opportunities for China to fill the gap the U.S. has left.

That's NPR's Fatma Tanis. Thank you, Fatma. Thank you. We end today's episode with Zohran Mamdani. It's a name most people hadn't heard of just a year ago, even in his home state of New York, where he's been serving in the state assembly. And so when Mamdani announced his candidacy for New York City mayor last October, it's fair to say most people didn't think he had a chance. He is a democratic socialist, just 33 years old. He's a Muslim of Indian descent, and he did not have the backing of his party's establishment.

The editorial board of The New York Times urged voters not to vote for him, citing inexperience in what they considered pie-in-the-sky proposals. While Mondani has kept affordability at the center of his campaign, others tried to define his identity with claims he would promote Islamic law, that he supports terrorism, and that he's an anti-Semite.

I think there are a lot of concerns that are based upon a caricature of myself. And I don't blame New Yorkers for having that caricature because they've had to deal with more than $30 million of spending that paints me in that manner, that smears and slanders me, that artificially lengthens the color and the length of my beard, that...

calls me a monster and describes me at the gates. If I was someone who knew nothing about myself and that was the only way that I was introduced to a campaign, I too might have concerns.

New Yorkers, for the most part, didn't buy it. Mamdani became the presumptive winner of the Democratic primary last week and is now one step closer to becoming mayor of the nation's largest city. I sat down with him on Monday in New York City and asked him what his party's leaders can learn from his campaign. You can hear more from my conversation with Zohran Mamdani on Morning Edition. Turn on your local NPR station, listen on the NPR app, or watch it at NPR.org or on YouTube. ♪

And that's a first for Tuesday, July 1st. I'm Layla Falded. And I'm Michelle Martin. The NPR app lets you keep public radio in your pocket. You'll find a mix of local, national, and international news, plus the best podcasts from the NPR network. Download the NPR app today.

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Dana Farrington, Rebecca Davis, Jenea Williams, and Lisa Thompson. It was produced by Ziad Butch, Claire Murashima, and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Zoe Van Genhoven, and our technical director is Zach Coleman. Join us again tomorrow.

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