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cover of episode Government... By Lottery?

Government... By Lottery?

2024/11/2
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Andrew Hall
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Bailey Flanigan
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Bailey Flanigan:抽签制起源于古雅典,是一种选择普通人参与政府的随机方法。它能选出没有政治动机的人,使决策更客观,并可能获得公众的更多信任。抽签制适用于那些既包含技术成分又包含人文含义的决策问题,例如人工智能算法的监管。在应用抽签制时,需要考虑如何分离科学方法和价值判断,以及如何处理科学方法带来的不确定性。在环境风险评估等领域,抽签制可以有效地结合科学方法和价值判断。 Andrew Hall:抽签制并非旨在取代所有决策,而是在特定情况下,例如那些不需要专业知识的决策中,选择官员的一种方式。传统的代议制民主存在问题,许多人无法获得足够的资源和影响力来参与政策制定,抽签制可以解决这个问题。抽签制特别适用于需要解决根本无法调和的价值冲突的决策,例如堕胎政策等。抽签制可以作为公投的替代方案,因为它能促使人们在做出决定之前进行充分的讨论和学习。美国建国者更倾向于由专家来治理国家,但抽签制在现代社会也有一定的应用价值。在制定政策时,科学证据应该用于提供信息,而最终的政策决策则应该基于价值判断,而不是仅仅依赖科学。抽签制可以应用于政府机构的审计,以提高公众对这些机构的信任。目前抽签制的参与率很低,需要改进。即使强制参与,仍然存在样本偏差的问题。在科技公司中,抽签制可以用来收集用户对AI相关问题的意见,但需要解决如何将文本输出转化为可用于评估算法的指标的问题。在线治理中,一个重要的问题是:是赋予制定政策的权力更重要,还是赋予执行和监督政策的权力更重要?

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Sortition, the practice of selecting representatives by lottery, is discussed as a potential solution for improving decision-making processes. This method, used in ancient Athens, offers a way to involve everyday people in government, ensuring diverse perspectives and minimizing political motivations. However, concerns about self-selection and low participation rates, particularly among certain demographic groups, are acknowledged.
  • Sortition involves selecting representatives through a lottery system.
  • It aims to include diverse perspectives and reduce political biases in decision-making.
  • Low participation rates and self-selection pose challenges to ensuring representative samples.

Shownotes Transcript

with @baileyflan) @ahall_research) @rhhackett)

Today we’re dusting off an ancient practice that has become trendy once again: the old-but-new idea of “sortition,” or selecting representatives by lottery.

Sortition was used in ancient Athenian democracy to elect public officials. It’s also been lately revived by tech companies like Meta and AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic to tackle some of their thorniest policymaking challenges.

Our guests today are experts on sortition, including Bailey Flanigan, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard who is joining MIT as an assistant professor next year, and who has helped develop selection algorithms for sortition that are in use today. Also joining is Andrew Hall, Stanford University poli sci professor, advisor to Meta, and consultant to a16z crypto research.

In this episode, we discuss why not to rely exclusively on expert authority, how the process of deliberation changes people’s minds, and how sortition can apply everywhere from the governance of countries to the governance of crypto projects, and more.

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As a reminder, none of the content should be taken as investment, business, legal, or tax advice. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.