Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
It's Thursday, February 27th. I'm Jane Koston, and this is Water Day, the show that is personally relieved that Elon Musk is on top of critical issues, even if tiny little mistakes get made. One of the things we accidentally canceled very briefly was Ebola, Ebola prevention. I think we all want Ebola prevention. A minor oopsie. Homest among us, right?
On today's show, the Trump administration tells federal agencies to prepare to cut more staff. And Robert F. Kennedy Jr. comments on the measles outbreak after the death of a child in Texas. Spoiler alert, his comments don't help.
But let's start with everyone's favorite subject. Taxes! Okay, that is basically no one's favorite subject. If you have to pay income tax, you are probably not very excited about it. No wonder President Donald Trump thinks that we should just not have an income tax anymore. Here he is making that case at a conference in January. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich for our nations, we should be
tariffing and taxing foreign nations to enrich our citizens.
Okay, first, some quick math. Americans pay between $2 and $3 trillion in income tax every year. According to CNN, Americans buy about $3 trillion worth of imported goods every year. So you would need to put 100% tariffs on imports in order to even start making up for the loss caused by no income tax. And then you'd need to remember that tariffs drive up prices, and high prices drive down demand, which means that fewer people buy stuff that costs more.
So they'd have to raise tariffs even more. You can see where all this goes. High prices, low demand, unhappy Americans. Also, yes, he said tariffing. I personally find that terrifying.
And if you thought that joke was bad, it was. Anyway, another big piece of the tax conversation is something a lot of people forget and Republicans don't want you to think too much about. Millions of Americans, like millions of working class folks with lower incomes, don't pay income tax at all. They don't make enough money, and they might actually get money back from the government because of refundable tax credits. And then on Tuesday night, the House barely passed a budget proposal that features nearly a trillion dollars in cuts to Medicaid.
So in short, the House GOP wants to slash a program millions of low-income folks depend on for health care to pay for tax cuts, which those same low-income folks won't benefit from. And they know it's going to make the deficit worse. They just don't care. Here's House Speaker Mike Johnson. House Republicans are working right now to negotiate what that looks like. We don't want to blow a hole in the deficit by extending the Trump era tax cuts, for example, but we're definitely going to get that extended. So we've got to find those savings.
Those savings? That's from health care services for low-income folks. Oh, and last week, the IRS announced it is in the process of cutting more than 6,000 jobs as a downsizing measure. So even if you do pay taxes, getting those forms in and, more importantly, getting your refund could take way, way longer. Thanks, Elon Musk.
To chat about all things taxes and the economy, I talked to Lindsay Owens. She's an economist and the executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive economic policy think tank. Lindsay, welcome back to What A Day. Thanks for having me. So House Republicans narrowly passed their budget plan on Tuesday, which includes a sweeping plan to lower taxes for the ultra wealthy. Can you break down the tax provisions in this budget plan?
Yeah. So House Republicans had a bumpy Tuesday night just barely getting their budget resolution through the floor. In fact, earlier in the night, they actually had to pull the vote from the floor because they didn't have the votes yet.
The president had to make some calls. They had to whip the final votes in place. Remember, this is the easy part. They actually haven't even spelled out exactly what they're cutting, exactly which tax breaks they're planning to offer for the wealthy or for corporations. This is really just an early blueprint, putting some numbers together on, like,
what we're likely to see from a budget process moving forward. So the fact that there were this many struggles early on is not really a good sign for Republicans. You know, the main takeaways are that
What we're coming up against this year is a combination of the ACA fight, the Affordable Care Act fight from 2017, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act fight from 2017, all culminating in one bill. So they are proposing huge, sweeping, draconian cuts to
to programs like Medicaid, and then paying for those cuts with a big extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations that are slated to expire in December. So as you mentioned, Trump passed these tax cuts in his first term. How would these tax cuts differ from those tax cuts, which, as you mentioned, are set to expire later this year?
What we think that they're proposing, based on the score, based on the amount of money they're setting aside for tax breaks,
is a full extension of all of the tax cuts in 2017 that are slated to expire. So there are a number of different provisions in this, but one would be a lot of the marginal tax rates on individual incomes that are slated to reset to their 2017 levels in 2025. And we expect them to extend all of those individual income tax cuts again.
So what gets me is the president keeps saying that he's not going to make cuts to social services like Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. Let's say theoretically that they weren't making cuts to social services. Where would any of this money come from?
So we know where the cuts are likely to come from because they have effectively earmarked the cuts to different committees within Congress. And absolutely, you are not going to get to the level of cuts that they are specifying without dipping into Medicaid, without dipping into things like food assistance and SNAP. So we can be pretty confident that as proposed right now, the House budget will inflict cuts to health care and to food assistance.
Now, you are absolutely right that on the other hand, the president is promising that he won't do those things. I guess the way to square the circle here is ultimately the House budget resolution won't be the eventual bill if it's going to conform to the promises that the president is making. If the federal government cuts taxes, what does this do to the states? Can we expect to see our state taxes go up in response to all of the cuts that would be taking place?
Yeah, so we are looking to the states for sure. It's absolutely possible, you know, states balance their budgets. So if state revenues shrink considerably, we can expect to see cuts coming down the line to things like education, health care, infrastructure. You can expect to see, you know, things like lower teacher pay, more potholes on your street. You know, that's what the future holds if the cuts are deep at the state level.
So at the same time, this is all happening. There is also talk of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency or Doge giving Americans stimulus checks. Doge says it plans to use all the money it allegedly saved with its mass layoffs to do this.
It hasn't happened, and reporting shows that all of Musk's layoffs aren't really saving the government a lot of money. But let's just say Americans do get some Doge dollars. Would that actually give Americans any kind of economic relief, considering that they're also going to be dealing with tariffs? And the last time a bunch of checks went out from the government, it really screwed up inflation.
I think the Doge dividend is a fiction, but let's take for a moment at face value that they're likely to send back in some form a dividend check of savings from Doge. Right now, economists are estimating that we could be looking at, you know, five or seven dollars a person, you know, a couple of cups of coffee.
in exchange for what we're seeing coming out of the house, which is potentially losing your health care. So I think most Americans are not going to think a couple cups of coffee offsets losing their health care. You know, right now, this is not shaping up to be net beneficial for most Americans.
Which doesn't help because the conference board put out its monthly consumer confidence index on Tuesday, and it turns out Americans don't feel good about the economy. Trump promised to bring down the price of eggs and other necessities, but they're still up. And a new report from the Agriculture Department says the price of eggs is expected to go up by like 40 percent this year. Now.
I know that there is no make things cheaper button in the Oval Office. And some economists say that the executive branch doesn't have much power over inflation. But are there actions the president could take to lower prices?
So the first thing to say is the economic numbers are universally moving in the wrong direction. Consumer confidence has plummeted since Trump took office. Inflation expectations, which is how much people think prices will increase in the future, has increased. Housing starts are coming in low and below expectations as are housing sales.
We've also even seen some indicators of business optimism and small business optimism start to tank. This is pretty stunning for the first month of a presidency when you usually get a bit of a honeymoon before any policy is set in, before events in the world like recessions or pandemics or things like this affect your economy. And frankly, the president was handed a very strong economy by the objective numbers.
You know, look, there are a number of things that the president could be doing to bring down prices for Americans. I think the big thing to say is he's actually doing a lot of things that move in the opposite direction, right? So he's contemplating some proposed tariffs which could have price impacts on Americans. He's contemplating making the cost of health care less affordable for millions of Americans who use Medicaid.
and the policies are moving in the wrong direction as well. So a lot of promises about delivering on cost of living, bringing prices down, focusing on working class Americans, pursuing proposals like eliminating taxes on tips or eliminating taxes on Social Security payments. What we're getting instead is proposals to cut health care and use it to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy.
And you brought up a word I am not a fan of, recession, which is something we're hearing more and more. Do you think there could be a recession in the near future?
I'm certainly not predicting one, and I'm absolutely not rooting for one. I really am worried, though, that just given the amount of uncertainty we're seeing with the consumer numbers, given the amount of business uncertainty we're seeing, and given the chaotic policy environment, that we're starting to veer into some trouble. Lindsay, thank you so much for joining me today.
Thanks for having me. That was my conversation with economist Lindsay Owens. We'll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube, and share with your friends. More to come after some ads.
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Here we see an unsuspecting family caught in the grips of a cable snake. Watch how it squeezes the life out of Jenny's online class. Dad, the Wi-Fi keeps freezing. And how it slowly constricts little Timmy's online gaming.
That's a shame. Free yourself from bad Wi-Fi. Switch to Twist and get fast, reliable, whole home Wi-Fi from Eero included in the price of service. Visit twistbroadband.com today. Not available in all areas. Restrictions apply. Contact Twist for details. Here's what else we're following today. Headline. This country has gotten bloated and fat and disgusting and incompetently run. Takes one to know one, I guess.
President Trump continued to justify his push to dramatically downsize the federal government during his first cabinet meeting Wednesday. And just before he made those comments, two federal agencies told the leaders of all executive branch departments to get their chainsaws ready and start making plans to slash more staff.
In a Wednesday memo from the heads of the Office of Personnel Management and the Office of Management and Budget, agency heads were directed to submit reorganization plans to, quote, initiate large-scale reductions in force. The deadline to submit those plans is March 13th. The memo is essentially a follow-up to an executive order President Trump signed a few weeks ago demanding large-scale government layoffs. It says department heads should collaborate with the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, when developing their layoff plans.
The memo is just the latest assault on federal workers' jobs. The administration has already laid off thousands of probationary workers, put thousands more on leave, and pushed them to accept a deferred resignation offer. All while Elon Musk and the Doge Bros prowl for more cuts. An unvaccinated child in Texas died amid an ongoing outbreak of measles. It's the first reported death tied to the outbreak that started last month and has so far infected more than 120 people.
The Texas Department of State Health Services said Wednesday the child was, quote, school-aged, but provided no further details. During Trump's cabinet meeting Wednesday, newly minted Health and Human Services Secretary and noted vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seemed to downplay the risks of the outbreak. Incidentally, there have been four measles outbreaks this year in this country last year that were 16.
So it's not unusual. We have measles outbreaks every year. Gonna fact check you on that one, pal. While yes, it's true that there are measles outbreaks every year, the CDC says the last time someone died from the disease was in 2015. So 10 years ago.
Also, in 2021, Kennedy Jr. wrote the foreword to a book put out by his anti-vax organization, Children's Health Defense, entitled The Measles Book, 35 Secrets the Government and the Media Aren't Telling You About Measles and the Measles Vaccine. He wrote, quote, So, um, I'm just not going to believe him on this subject.
Texas health officials have said the outbreak is concentrated in a Mennonite community in West Texas. The health department says the vast majority of the cases are in children under 18 years old. Neighboring New Mexico has also reported a few cases.
Hamas returned what it said are the remains of four Israeli hostages, according to the Israeli military. At the time of our recording Wednesday evening, Israel has not confirmed the identities of the bodies. In exchange, some released Palestinian prisoners arrived in Ramallah. They were met by crowds of friends and family. Hamas! Hamas! Hamas!
The trade came Thursday local time, as the first phase of the ceasefire deal in Gaza is set to expire this weekend. Israel had initially postponed the release of over 600 Palestinians last weekend because of the way Hamas treated hostages during previous handovers. Israel, the UN, and the Red Cross have called the ceremonies humiliating.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Thursday's handover would not include a staged event in front of crowds like other Hamas releases. Hamas called the delay a serious violation of the ceasefire. Hundreds of Palestinians arrested from Gaza after the October 7th attack have been held without charge for months. The exchange completes the first phase of the ceasefire deal. The agreement stated 33 hostages, including eight bodies, would be released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinians.
Washington Post owner and billionaire Jeff Bezos said Wednesday the newspaper's opinion section will be focused on, quote, personal liberties and free markets. In an email to Post staffers and in a Twitter post, Bezos said the op-ed section would write in support and defense of those two topics every day. He went on to say, quote, we'll cover other topics too, of course, but viewpoints opposing those pillars will be left to be published by others.
Bezos said he offered opinions editor David Shipley the chance to oversee the tone shift. Instead, Shipley chose to resign. Weeks before the election in November, Bezos also canned the paper's endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, and the paper's publisher announced the Post would not endorse a presidential candidate. It's worth noting that Bezos' other companies, Amazon and Blue Origin, get billions of dollars from federal government contracts.
And over at the White House, administration officials booted a HuffPost journalist from the press pool that followed President Trump Wednesday.
The move breaks a long-established precedent in which the White House Correspondents Association, a group of journalists, oversees the press pool rotation. HuffPost said the White House told its reporter late Tuesday there was, quote, no room for him in the pool. Axios was ultimately given the seat. This all happened hours after White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said Tuesday the press pool would be chosen by the White House. And that's the news. One more thing.
Let's talk about words for a second. Specifically, two words you may have seen flying around the internet over the last few weeks. Malicious compliance.
Now, before about a month ago, malicious compliance was a term referencing when employees will follow the letter of a new regulation or rule in a way that is guaranteed to have negative consequences. Your boss demands to get input on every single little thing you do, so you CC your boss on literally every single email you send, meaning she gets dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens of emails she absolutely doesn't want.
But according to some of Trump's biggest supporters, malicious compliance now means you follow the rules the Trump administration set up, but we don't like the results. Like in Talbot County, Maryland. To honor the civil rights luminary Frederick Douglass, the town and his descendants traditionally hold a parade. Frederick was born in Maryland in 1820. Or they did hold a parade until this year. WMAR News in Baltimore, Maryland reports.
The parade was canceled after the Maryland National Guard sent this letter to Bailey explaining why it could no longer participate, stating, quote, the Maryland National Guard must decline events which celebrates individuals based all or in part on immutable characteristics. This is because of a decision from the Department of Defense. It can no longer lend resources to any cultural celebrations, including those during Black History Month.
The rules seem pretty clear to me. The Department of Defense guidance is entitled Identity Months Dead at DOD and reads in part, quote, DOD components and military departments will not use official resources for, quote, cultural awareness months, like Black History Month. Ergo, no Maryland National Guard at the Frederick Douglass Parade. And yet I saw numerous conservatives arguing that this was a form of malicious compliance. No.
No, it isn't. This wasn't the case of some snarky asshole following rules he knows will result in bad things happening. The Trump administration came up with a really vague rule. And then people who support the Trump administration got mad when people did their best to follow the really vague rule. Because yeah, people are going to try and follow the vague rules set forth by the Trump administration.
They will pull books about civil rights from schools located on military bases, and they will cancel parades honoring Frederick Douglass. The alternative is a big, messy, terrible lawsuit, and in some cases, people losing their jobs. So don't get mad at the people trying to handle the rules your favorite president came up with and your favorite secretary of defense implemented.
Maybe, just maybe, you could get mad at the people who wrote vague, difficult-to-follow executive orders and guidance that led to the cancellation of events you allegedly support. Before we go...
Trump's love affair with crypto isn't just about hype, it's about profit. On today's episode of Assembly Required, Stacey Abrams breaks down the basics of crypto, how Trump's policies are paving the way for an unregulated digital gold rush, and why it all raises serious ethical questions.
She's joined by Bloomberg's Zeke Fox and The Atlantic's Annie Lowry to explore the good, the bad, and the murky middle of digital currency. Plus, how to spot risky investments, push back on crypto misinformation, and hold elected officials accountable. Listen to Assembly Required wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube every Thursday. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, get ready to become a pirate to fight the drug cartels, and tell your friends to listen.
And if you're into reading, and not just about how Utah Republican Senator Mike Lee seriously suggested Congress give letters of marque to individuals so they can carry out acts of piracy against drug cartels, like me, Water Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston, and I'm don't become a pirate.
Waterday is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Raven Yamamoto and Emily Forb. Our producer is Michelle Alloy. We had production help today from Johanna Case, Joseph Dutra, Greg Walters, and Julia Clare. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our executive producer is Adrienne Hill. Our theme music is by Colin Gillyard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.
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