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cover of episode Could an asteroid hit the earth in 2032?

Could an asteroid hit the earth in 2032?

2025/3/3
logo of podcast What in the World

What in the World
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G
Georgina Rannard
H
Hannah Gelbart
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Hannah Gelbart: 我是Hannah Gelbart，本期节目将探讨一颗名为2024 YR4的小行星，它可能在2032年撞击地球。虽然最初的撞击概率较高，但现在已经大幅降低。我们将与BBC科学记者Georgina Rannard一起探讨小行星的本质、2024 YR4的特性、行星防御计划以及过去小行星撞击事件的影响。 我们还将讨论如果2024 YR4撞击月球会发生什么，以及它与导致恐龙灭绝的小行星撞击事件有何异同。最后，我们将探讨公众对小行星撞击的担忧，以及如何缓解这些担忧。 Georgina Rannard: 小行星是太阳系形成早期遗留下来的岩石碎片，大小不一，大部分位于火星和木星之间的小行星带。2024 YR4是一颗直径在40到90米之间的岩石，最初被认为有3%的概率撞击地球，引发了媒体的广泛关注和一些危言耸听的报道。但随着进一步的观测和计算，其撞击概率已降至0.004%。 行星防御计划旨在通过各种技术，例如动能撞击器，来偏转可能撞击地球的小行星。目前，还没有计划拦截2024 YR4，因为其撞击地球的概率非常低。然而，如果它撞击月球，这将为科学家提供宝贵的研究机会，让我们更好地了解小行星撞击的机制和影响。 过去，地球曾多次遭受小行星撞击，其中最著名的是导致恐龙灭绝的那次撞击事件。这次撞击导致了地球上75%的物种灭绝，并对地球的地质和气候造成了深远的影响。然而，并非所有的小行星撞击都是灾难性的，有些小行星撞击甚至可能促进了早期生命的繁荣。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter introduces Asteroid 2024 YR4, clarifying the low probability of it hitting Earth despite alarming headlines. It delves into the asteroid's size, discovery, and the initial, inflated risk assessments.
  • Asteroid 2024 YR4's discovery and initial 3% chance of impacting Earth.
  • Media coverage described as 'overblown'.
  • Asteroid's size estimated between 40-90 meters.
  • Discovery by astronomers in Chile.
  • The naming convention for asteroids is explained.

Shownotes Transcript

At the end of last year, astronomers detected 2024 YR4, an asteroid that could collide with Earth on the 22nd December 2032. It was dubbed the ‘city-killer’ and news reports warned of Armageddon, comparing the potential impact to a nuclear bomb explosion. But since YR4’s discovery, space agencies and scientists have been studying the asteroid’s size, potential path and what we can do to divert it. There’s only the tiniest risk it will hit earth and experts say there’s no need for alarm.

BBC science and climate reporter Georgina Rannard talks us through all the details of Asteroid 2024 YR4, and gives a quick history of how we’ve managed asteroids in the past.

Instagram: @bbcwhatintheworld Email: [email protected] WhatsApp: +44 0330 12 33 22 6 Presenter: Hannah Gelbart Producers: Emily Horler, Adam Chowdhury and Benita Barden Editor: Verity Wilde