Fall guy: Trump’s Russia deal is aimed at ousting Zelensky
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Tom Noonan. Among the many striking images from Pope Francis' funeral on Saturday, one could have far-reaching consequences on the world stage. The US and Ukrainian presidents, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy,

hunched over close to each other deep in conversation on small chairs in the vast St Peter's Basilica. Their first in-person meeting since arguing in the Oval Office back in February. That impromptu meeting on Saturday came as the pressure ratchets up on Zelensky to accept a peace deal forced on Ukraine by the US, which is thought to include giving up swathes of territory to Russia.

And there's been the suggestion that Zelensky is being set up as the full guy in any piece. Our guest today is The Times' diplomatic editor, Roger Boyes, who's written about exactly that. Roger, how would the proposed deal actually force Zelensky out of office? Well, to put it really simply, it involves a land for peace settlement, which

which means Zelensky or the Zelensky administration surrendering Crimea or at least a big chunk of Crimea. And that is, we think, unacceptable for much of the Ukrainian electorate.

We're not sure because he hasn't faced an election for some time. So the closer we come to this becoming a reality, the shakier Zelensky's position becomes because he has to expose it to what his people really think. And he might fear that it will show him to be illegitimate, that say a majority of Ukrainians may actually be ready to

to cede big chunks of Crimea to Russia. And we know also from Ukrainian party politics that things are shifting. There's a chap, his predecessor called Poroshenko, essentially an opposition leader now. Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv. There are quite a lot of people coming out in public today

expressing the need to shift from a war leader to a civilian leader, whoever that might be. Does he have to take the fall, do you think? Or is there a way he can carry on even with this peace deal? Yes. I mean, when I say taking the fall, I meant really that Zelensky is a fall guy in the sense of a mafia movie. That's to say that every deal...

has to have an explicit loser. Every deal is a zero-sum game. And that was how Trump was approaching Zelensky, that Zelensky has to come out of this as a loser, otherwise Trump hasn't won. And this, in any case, is Putin's position, because Putin is, in effect, demanding the surrender, the capitulation of Ukraine, which is, you know, a win-lose situation, win Putin, lose Zelensky.

Roger, do you think there's a world in which Zelensky isn't forced out of office, but actually when peace comes, he says, well, this isn't the deal I wanted. And clearly my relationship with Donald Trump, particularly, and obviously also Vladimir Putin, isn't working. And it would be better for my country if someone else is the one that's dealing with them. And

And do you think that is actually the case, that Zelensky going would put Ukraine in a better position, or would it just undermine it further? Well, it depends who replaces Zelensky. But first of all, it has to be Zelensky's decision. You know, it should no more be forced by Putin than by Trump than by the European Union. That's not the way it works. And what should ideally happen is that the current system of martial law in Ukraine is

and then some form of election is held. And that's the moment when, if we're going to stay true to the principle that Ukraine is a democratic country whose values we embrace, that's the moment when Zelensky can make his own decision, whether he thinks he's got a strong popular legitimacy and then goes for it,

or he doesn't. There are different factors in that decision. One is, does he still command the loyalty of the army? And this is a big question. Does he command the loyalty of the intelligence services? And does he feel capable of leading Ukraine into a period of reconstruction and rebuilding, even though the country is wounded? And those are the three factors.

criteria that he will have to consider apart from the popular will whether he should continue or not. Roger it seems clear why Vladimir Putin would want to get rid of Zelensky and why political instability in Ukraine would suit him but why do you think Trump would want to get rid of him? Well it's something to do with resetting Russian and American relations. I think Trump's vision is

China as the major problem, challenge facing the United States and Ukraine as a distraction. He sees one way of weakening China as weakening the alliance between Russia and China.

Russia's dependence on China is partly linked to the war against Ukraine. So all those things, you may say that some doesn't really add up, but it does, it seems in the Trump world. So do you think this deal is actually aimed intentionally at maneuvering Zelensky out of office? Or is he just collateral damage, frankly, to Donald Trump's deal to prize Russia away from China?

Well, we will see. The Trump ambition at the moment is to get Zelensky and Putin to meet face to face and see kind of what happens next. As Trump says that Zelensky has no cards and that Putin has all the cards, that's to say he has in his possession a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.

then he's assuming in this kind of might is right kind of logic that he has that Putin will win in that encounter. And all he's counting on, probably wrongly, is that Putin will in his dominance show a modicum of generosity and

But it all boils down to Zelensky having to go. And it might be that Zelensky has already reached that conclusion himself. The backstory goes back some months ago when his head of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, told a magazine that he considered there was a stalemate between Russia and Ukraine.

And Zelensky was furious about this, hence his removal. And he was furious because the notion of a stalemate leads inevitably to direct talks. And Zelensky wasn't ready for it. And now time has moved on. And Zelensky, in essence, the closer he comes to some kind of direct negotiations with Putin...

Zelensky is in essence admitting that his time is reaching close. And just finally, Roger, that meeting at the Vatican on Saturday between Trump and Zelensky ahead of the Pope's funeral, do you think that has changed anything at all?

Well, in a way it did, in the way that Macron was quite heavily involved in that particular encounter in Rome. And one of the things that Trump has done has pushed Europe aside. And Europe, which is going to be essential in the unfolding of this peace agreement, has felt irrelevant. And what it may have done is made...

European players, tighter allies of Zelensky for the next phase because somebody has to speak for Zelensky when it comes to the wire and Europe has to do that.

Roger, thank you. That is Roger Boyes, The Times' diplomatic editor. As we record this, Canada is going to the polls. Definitely listen to our episode on April 9th, which is called Carney with a Mandate Could Spell Trouble for Trump. Even if you're listening after the result has come out, what we discussed was how a new prime minister with a mandate to stand up

to Trump gives Trump problems he didn't have before. And of course tomorrow, Tuesday, marks 100 days since Donald Trump took office for a second time. So our plan is to spend the next couple of days looking at his impact in more depth. So tomorrow we'll look at how these 100 days have ended the West as we know it. That is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on Top of the World with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

You want work to be less hard work. You hear an ad for MHR, so you reach out. We connect your department systems, which leads to real-time data sharing that uncovers new insights, which empower your decision makers and triple monthly sales, which leads to high fives and awkward hugs. You say a big thank you. We say you're welcome.

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