Frontline special - Global Affairs Analyst, Michael Bociurkiw
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble and I executive produce the podcast. The World in 10 is partnered with Frontline, the interview series from Times Radio, available on YouTube, with expert analysis of the world's conflicts. At the weekend, we bring you Frontline interviews in full.

Here's one from this week. I hope you find it interesting. Hello and welcome to Frontline for Times Radio with me, Kate Chabot. Today we are talking to a Ukraine-based global affairs analyst with more than two decades' experience in humanitarian work and international journalism. Michael Bosiuk, who is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and has been a spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He's also an author,

and a regular commentator here on Frontline. And it's good to see you again, Michael. Thank you for joining us. It's great to be back on Frontline. And Michael, you have just been out of the country, but you're back in Ukraine and in your home city of Odessa, which was among those cities that were hit recently in Russia's massive attacks, its aerial bombardment. I'm going to ask you a little bit more about Kyiv itself.

in a moment, but what's it like in Odessa? What are your first impressions having just got back? Yeah, I did speak to one or two people on the way over here when I arrived, and it's a situation where, a little bit different than Kiev, where it seems to be struck almost on a nightly basis here,

two days on, two days off. So that gives people a very, very welcome reprieve. And you don't have to remind people it is getting into high summer here. So the city is very, very reliant on tourism, more so domestic tourism now. So the beaches are full.

And that is going to come as a big relief to people here who look over the economy because it's a big part of Odessa. But I got to say, Kate, when I was away, I had a couple of moments on two or three different days where I saw pictures coming out of Odessa immediately after it was struck.

These were apocalyptic pictures. And I once or even twice thought, oh my God, that's my building or that's my neighborhood.

I can't say exactly where I live, of course, but I can tell you that it's historic neighborhoods. And these are 200-year-old buildings, kind of the prized possession of Odessa, which is a UNESCO heritage site. Thank God it wasn't my building, but it goes to show you that the Russians are continuing to strike in residential neighborhoods and very precious areas. A hospital was struck again, so...

You know, what that tells me is that they are not, I mean, the war in a way has come to a destination in an even bigger way, if you can believe that. You know, normally it was the occasional strike on the historic district, but more port infrastructure, critical infrastructure, but now in the heart of neighborhoods and

you know of course it's not only me but it's people here who have lived their whole lives or being forced to reevaluate is it safe or um should should we think of going now on the way over here i took the bus over from moldova and as usual um you know it's mostly women and children who are able to travel abroad but i noticed uh maybe a half full bus so i don't know if that's an indication of fewer people wanting to come here at the moment but

Point here being is concerns and fears are very, very high. Good to see you and that your home is OK, though, Michael.

At the moment, the world's attention, in particular that of the U.S., is taken up by the Iran-Israel war. What does that actually mean, do you think, for Russia and its war on Ukraine? Because I've heard it described as a short term good news for Russia because attention is elsewhere. The oil price is up, for example. But long term, it could actually be bad news because they may lose Iran as a client, having recently lost Syria.

Yeah, absolutely. You couldn't have wrapped it up even better. Yeah, sure, it's a distraction. The world's attention is on that particular conflict.

But, you know, when I was at the Zag Festival in Tbilisi recently, we were talking about some of the parallels between the two wars. And you may have noticed heavy, heavy use of drones. And that goes back to the Hamas attack on Israel, where analysts in Israel told me that the Hamas thugs

kept a very, very close eye on how Ukraine was using drones, especially these kind of kamikaze drones that can drop explosives very precisely. But now the Israeli, but especially the Iranian side seems to be bothering, sorry, boring a lot from the Russian playbook in terms of trying to overwhelm multiple layers of Israeli defense. Very, very interesting to watch. And as we saw, of course,

In the past few hours, a missile slammed into the hospital in Beersheba. Apparently, it's going to be irreplaceable, irreparable damage there. So that's what's happening in Ukraine. We find in the heavy attacks, 400 to 500 drones and missiles, a mix of them, and overwhelming defenses here. Now, of course,

It's got to be pointed out, Israel is basically the size of New Jersey. Ukraine is the size of France. It's a huge country. So it's impossible to put an impenetrable shield over Ukraine. But the Ukrainians are begging, of course, for more defenses.

Interesting, is it not, that the Ayatollahs and Mr. Putin have a very close pact? They met not that long ago. And, you know, Russia is not coming to Iran's defense here. And we also have to note here that Iran was a huge supplier of drones to Russia.

But I think that things have changed a bit there in the sense that Russia could be a bit less reliant on Iran because drone production at home has really gone up. Basically, a war economy in Russia. So they're producing a lot more of their own. Plus, let's not forget, they have the help of North Korea, especially in terms of ammunition and men.

And on the sidelines, China for dual use technology and that sort of thing. So I in a way, yes, it's a gift to Mr. Putin. But on the other hand, it's showing his.

allies, what little there are around the world that Russia cannot be relied upon, no matter how tight the agreement. And say, for example, DPRK, North Korea was attacked. Let's see if Russia comes to their aid as well. So that's the reality they're facing right now in the Kremlin. It's interesting, though, that President Putin has also tried to position himself as some kind of mediator in the Israel war. And

And when he did, Trump just kind of slapped him down, said, mediate Russia first. You can worry about this later. I mean, what does that actually say? Do you think that Ukraine has considerably slipped down Trump's priority list for the moment? Well, yes. But on the other hand, this is an unhinged president with a very short attention span. And I think they're all having...

in the White House to put up their grown-on pants for the first time since they took power again. This is a real war. It's very possible that it could spiral way beyond the pathway of missiles and drones between Israel and Iran to throughout the Middle East.

And I think you saw that a bit in Mr. Trump's hesitation about 24 hours ago where he said, I may or may not. I don't think they can decide what to do here. So as for Russia, I

I think we're reminded that, you know, they're actually a small power at the end of the day. Yes, they may want to offer to mediate or whatever, but no one takes them seriously on that one. If anyone's going to mediate,

Who knows? Maybe it could be Saudi Arabia, which is playing a much bigger diplomatic presence in the region. They were, after all, it's hard to believe, isn't it, that they were on the verge of normalization of ties with Israel before Hamas attacked. And they did, I think, have some warming of ties with Iran. So let's see who gets in the middle. But I don't.

expect, if we're looking for peace, for it to come via the good offices of Mr. Trump. And we are talking just after a day's national mourning in Ukraine, after this horrific nine-hour aerial bombardment of Kyiv.

On that very same day, though, later on, President Putin had this kind of roundtable with journalists saying he wanted to end the war as soon as possible and is ready to continue negotiations, provided Kiev and Western allies are willing to engage. I mean, that's just blatantly shoving it in people's faces, isn't it? It is. And he should have completed the sentence. I want to end the war, but only on my maximalist terms, basically.

So just quickly, because I know I've said it before on Frontline, the big ones, of course, are entire control of the four oblasts that Russia partially controls. Ukraine giving up its bid for NATO, possibly even the EU, international recognition of Crimea, reduction of Ukraine's armed forces capability. And also a very, very big one is Ukraine has to give up its bid for reparations. That brings up

the question of Russian frozen assets, maybe we'll have time for that. But no, he's clearly, you know, putting forth terms that no Ukrainian president could ever agree to. But he's also pounding the living daylights out of Ukraine. It isn't only those missiles and drones that, as you referenced, really hit Kyiv, but also what they're doing closer to Kharkiv and Sumy, creating these so-called buffer zones,

And, you know, there's when I was in Kiev recently, I had a briefing on a possible or rather a likely intensive Russian summer offensive. We're talking about the front line possibly shifting as much as 60 kilometers, Kate. And also that could trigger an outflow of people from those from that area of Ukraine.

upwards of a quarter of a million people. Who's going to look after them? Ukrainian capabilities here are already very saturated. If that does happen,

European states have to get ready. I was at a briefing of ambassadors in Kiev and I told them, you guys have to start telling your capitals that this is what you face if Mr. Putin is going to push the front line that much further. And are you seeing any signs at the moment of a potential summer offensive? Oh, yeah, absolutely. The buildup is

in the northern part of the country, close to Sumy and Kharkiv. Kharkiv also being very, very, very heavily hit. And there are very worrisome ships in the front line. We're not talking many kilometers, but we are talking closer towards strategic cities where Russia could go even further.

It is not looking good. And remember that I don't want to jump ahead of any of your questions, but the G7, Mr. Zelensky was in my home province of Alberta in Canada, and he basically left empty-handed.

Those guys couldn't even agree on a unified statement on Ukraine. I suspect he came back in a not a very good mood with that happening. And in those attacks on Kyiv, stunningly, awfully, cluster bombs were used. And it seems to prove this point that whatever Putin says, he does everything.

exactly what he wants and quite openly does it and gets away with it. And to refer to the G7, in a way, there's nothing to stop him when you have people like the US president saying it was a mistake to throw Russia out of the G7, well, now G7. And that was actually done because they had annexed Crimea. So, yeah.

he's almost rewarding bad behavior. Yeah, absolutely. And yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the cluster munitions. Not the first time, though. I believe it was in Zaporizhia and elsewhere, a few other cities in the East where they found them as well. Of course, these are very, very damaging. And in certain types of cluster munitions, they put out, they distribute, disperse rather little bomblets. And we've seen in other parts of the world where kids pick them up thinking they're toys, devastating consequences.

You know, yeah, the G7, very interesting. Trump shows up, the big man on the block, and then he leaves only after just one day, suggesting that, yeah, maybe it's time to allow Russia back in to make it into the G8. But

That would be rewarding, Mr. Putin. But as I said to one of your journalist colleagues the other day in London, I don't think Mr. Putin is interested in that. He's actually, I think, pulling away from these Western multilateral fora or institutions.

He is much more comfortable in clubs like the BRICS Block of Nations, which of course includes China, Brazil, India. It's a growing club. I think he would actually say thanks, but no thanks if that were to happen. But I think what was more important there is what Mr. Trump said or didn't say. And I think it was a continuation, Kate, of let the two, Russia and Ukraine, fight it out and then let's see what happened. And yeah, indicating that

Almost Ukraine is to blame for this again. It's unbelievable. You are just back from Georgia, a former Soviet state, 20% of which is occupied by Russia and which appears to be turning away from the EU now towards the Kremlin since the parliamentary elections last year. What is the situation in the country now? Well, first of all, you know, I got to say it was very eerie sitting in Tbilisi because localities,

Locals reminded me, you know, Michael, you're not very far from where Russian tanks are parked and Russian bases. It ranges, I don't know if anyone knows for sure, from 40 kilometers from Tbilisi to more accurately probably a two hour drive. But nonetheless, they're very, very close. And what is happening is the footprint is expanding exponentially.

And it was very interesting to hear from one of the more prominent young Georgian activists who actually showed us video and photographs of the so-called front line. And some of them are just painted sticks.

why isn't there any barbed wire and other scary stuff there? She explained, well, because they can move the sticks very easily without anybody noticing. But it's not only what matters to the naked eye sees, it's also what's happening beneath the surface. And that, Kate, is very, very chilling. On my last night, I spent quite a bit of time talking to the brother of

of an activist who was just handed down a ridiculous court sentence for attending a demonstration, not really provoking the police. But this is what they do is on flimsy, mostly trumped up charges, they grab people from the protests, from the streets and lock them away. The courts are giving harsh sentences.

But you really feel the determination to stand up to the so-called Dream Party, which is the pro-Russian ruling party.

When I was there, they hit the 200-day mark in consecutive nights of protests in front of the parliament. And this is a wide, wide swath of society from bankers to students to, you know, web designers, all sorts of people, because they know very, very well what faces them if they don't oppose what's going on there. But, you know, there is their...

The Dream Party is also taking pages right out of the Russian playbook in terms of, for example, branding foreign organizations, or rather NGOs, as foreign-influenced and outlawing them. There's been a chill over the media as well.

So it is not looking good. Let's remind everyone that it was in 2008 that this invasion happened. And that was kind of the starting pistol for what was to follow here in Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022, where Russia invaded. There was very, very little response, even from the EU. I believe it was Mr. Obama who was in power. Very few sanctions.

And now one final thought on this. The EU, I believe, is going to consider visa restrictions on Georgia because right now they have visa-free travel. And they want to do that to, as it was explained to me, to punish...

the folks in power, but also to push the general population to oppose even more, saying, see, these are the consequences of what your government is doing. But I'm not so sure that's a good route to take because that's going to cut off a lot of young people, for instance, from very, very, you know, opportunities that they want to pursue elsewhere in Europe. So that has to be handled very carefully. But

Again, very little media attention. And I'm glad you asked me about it because I think we have to keep a very, very close eye on what's happening there. Can I just ask you a little bit more about something you just said, which was that the people there who are protesting, they know very well what's going to happen if they don't. What do they think is going to happen? Oh, well, they think that what fewer liberties they have now will go. Even, for example, in

You know, they're all very, very tech savvy. They're on Facebook a lot, other social media channels. It's feared that the government may crack down there. And in fact, they have with a new law that if you insult one of the members of the government or one of the members of the ruling party, that will bring consequences as well. So

Even a lot of the more critical stuff that I was posting, I did as I was leaving or right after I left, because you just don't know. I was there, by the way, to attend the ZEG storytelling festival. ZEG means the day after tomorrow in Georgian. And that's how people have to view their future. What is going to happen to us the day after tomorrow if we don't stand up? And

You know, this festival is very good in the sense that it does bring the international community, a lot of very, very bright and smart people to Tbilisi. And they learn a lot about what's happening. And now this festival is going to go on the road to Amsterdam and London, among other places. So,

The other thing is there's been a huge outflow of people. They now have a very, very big diaspora and that diaspora was limited in their ability to vote in the last election. That's another Russian trick that they do. And also on the economic sphere, when the Russians invaded, they took over what was basically regarded as the Georgian Riviera on the Black Sea coast. So that hit the economy as well.

Everyone I met is, again, energetic, very ambitious and smart, but

They see, your question was, they do see what's happening in relatively close Ukraine and with not the immediate response that should have happened in terms of slamming Russia with sanctions and really hitting back hard. If you roll back to 2008, what happened in Georgia and you're saying the lack of sanctions

reaction by international community in some ways fueled what then happened with Crimea and the annexation of Crimea. The fifth president of Georgia, Salome Zorabashvili, who claims she still is the legitimate president of Georgia, she's warned that what's going on in Georgia right now is Putin using that country almost like a sort of test case for taking control

power from a country or taking over a country without military intervention. If that is the case, and if we should be looking at Georgia now to learn what we didn't learn back in 2008, where should we be looking for the next move? What should we be learning? Well, what we should be looking at is the other areas of this region where Russia is expected to

get further into his shenanigans, the well-known ones of, you know, it's a hybrid warfare. So you do things as invisibly as you can from installing your puppets in a country I was in today, Moldova, putting out tons and tsunami waves of propaganda, trying to weaken those in power. You give people a lot of cash to stir up trouble and

You smuggle in arms if that's possible. And then you do all the other stuff that is well known to us from cutting submarine cables to cyber attacks to neutralizing opponents on foreign soil.

I got to tell you, I wasn't only in Georgia, but it was at this Black Sea security forum here in Odessa before I left where I was pretty shocked to hear how the Russians are mobilizing despite everything that's been put in place since 2008 and 2014 and 2022. What I mean by that, for example, is, for example, they're using a shadow fleet of Chinese ships in some cases,

manned by Russians using those to cut cables under the Baltic Sea. There are also

developing their own internal waterway system, which isn't deep, but it's enough to ship assets from the Northern Seas to the Black Sea, Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, and then cause trouble here. They're also talking about using ghost fleets of ships to smuggle many submarines away.

through the Bosphorus Straits in Turkey, which is a big no-no. We have the Montreux Convention to prevent that from happening and putting those devices into the Mediterranean. So there's an awful lot to look out for. But I think the problem is right now is that the Russian war machine is still being very, very well fed by countries like China and India because they're buying tons of their oil.

And also they're using friendships with North Korea, Iran and elsewhere to replenish stock up on things. And, you know, then finally speaking about the Russian war machine, 300 billion dollars worth of frozen Russian assets sitting mostly in European banks. I think it's the equivalent of about 180 to 190 million euros worth.

And the head of the European Central Bank said recently, that's a no go for us. We can't use it. It will dilute faith in the economy and the euro. Well, you know what?

Do that if you want, but what's going to be a lot more costier for you is when these millions of refugee claimants or asylum seekers come back into Europe to seek safe haven because Russia invades further, or if Russia goes into, it's not very far away, into Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. So if they don't act now, the costs are going to be a lot bigger down the road.

And add to that Donald Trump, who has made it very clear his unwillingness to slap stiffer sanctions on Russia. It had been hoped that that would be talked about and he'd be persuaded to do so at the G7. But he left in the rush, as we know, and obviously for good reasons with the crisis that has evolved. The EU's latest, the 18th sanctions package,

Is that going to make much of a difference? Well, if you listen to the EU foreign policy chief and Ursula von der Leyen, it did, it will. They're especially targeting the energy sector, further tightening of the noose around Russian banks and their participation in the swift payment settlement system. But as you pointed out, this is the 18th package and

As Ambassador John Bolton said the other day, why the heck didn't they just slap them with 18 packages of sanctions in February 2022 when the full-scale invasion happened? Because we probably wouldn't be where we are right now in this pathetic situation where Russia is still able to do what it does. It's had so much time now to find ways around sanctions and use proxies and friends elsewhere to get around them. So

It's very regrettable and I do appreciate that where you are in the United Kingdom and in France and other jurisdictions, times are tough. Creaking healthcare system, not enough housing, economy is very, very tough shape. There are competing demands.

But, you know, we can only repeat this as many times as we have breath left in us is if you don't act now, possibly even going to the extent of putting these various economies on a war footing, it's going to be a lot costlier later on.

Another move that was mentioned this week, which again is going to take time because it's within three years, the European Union is going to be trying to work on these new powers to restrict and ultimately ban the flow of Russian gas across the continent. If it happens and it works, do you think that would be effective or again, three years too long? I'll see it when I believe it. Uh,

The problem is the infrastructure. For example, we have a lot of energy in Canada that can't make its way to Europe because the infrastructure, for example, for LNG, liquidified natural gas to be shipped from our maritime provinces to Europe, isn't there at the moment. That should have been done a long time ago. And now we're being forced to do it because of what's happening with our relationship with the United States.

But, you know, we're still seeing some European countries buying Russian gas. We're seeing steel being manufactured within a taxi ride of Brussels where the EU and NATO are based.

And this has been documented, by the way, by Ukrainian journalists recently. So they were pointing that out. So, you know, you have this hypocrisy there that, you know, we have to really punish Russia. But on the other time, they're consuming a lot of their products. And as you know, I've been traveling quite a bit around the world. And whether it's Turkey or Georgia, by the way, or some other countries like Thailand and especially the UAE,

Huge numbers of Russians there going about their business. UAE is unbelievable in that regard. Wealthy Russians are among the top buyers of luxury property there. So with these things happening, I don't think they're really feeling the pain. I think it's almost an invitation to continue. And finally, on that note, if I can, and I spoke to

like-minded people in Georgia about this is, you know, I wish we all wish EU leaders would stop coming to Tbilisi or to Kyiv just to take selfies and say how much we care. And I repeated the phrase I'm sure you've heard me say before is words don't stop

Russian missiles the way Patriot or other air defense systems do. Well said. I'd like to just talk to you about something I know you're very passionate about, which is the kidnapping of Ukrainian children and taken into Russia for adoption and disappearing, basically. Interestingly, though, because

This week, President Zelensky was offered them in return for Russian prisoners of war, which he turned down because he said that this is just you don't do it this way. Children are protected by international law and they shouldn't be traded like bargaining chips. That was the sentiment in his response, at least. Can you update us on what you know about any progress on tracking or returning these children who may many of whom may be lost forever at this rate?

Yeah, well, I understand the tracking is very, very good, but it's like a lot of things that happen in Ukraine. It's on the shoulders of international or local NGOs who have grouped together with other highly qualified people. I think even Belocat is involved to use technology to track down where they are. But we've also, Kate, heard a lot of stories of parents taking matters into their own hands and at great risk to themselves going to Russia

and finding their children there. I'm not familiar with the intricacies of the arrangement that Mr. Zelensky found so distasteful, but I can tell you what I feel in my gut is this probably did not go down well with the parents who have lost their children. I was at a protest in Kyiv two weeks ago on the Maidan Square,

And there is a huge, I mean, bigger numbers than I ever seen before of women, mothers and children protesting for the return of their loved ones. Now, they were mostly talking about soldiers who have been missing in action, but

My goodness gracious, you saw a lot of young children there saying in Ukrainian, "Da papa," "Where's daddy?" And imagine if you are one of these, we don't know the exact numbers, but they're well into the thousands or tens of thousands, a child in Russia taken, abducted, put through filtration camps, brainwashed to say, "Now you're part of mother Russia, Ukraine is a failed state."

Imagine that child in the middle of nowhere in Russia saying, where's father, where's mother? It's really, really sad. And what we do know as well is the amount of effort that the state has used to basically, for lack of a better word, rebrand these children, give them new names and new identities,

This is part of the whole effort of Russia at genocide and of not only through these kidnappings, but also through the violence that we see night after night here in Odessa and Kiev and elsewhere to push Ukrainians outside of Ukraine. They're hoping that if they continue long enough, it'll be basically a war of attrition. People will be fed up and leave.

We also saw just a few days ago, President Zelensky proposing a law, I believe it's going through Parliament if it hasn't already, to allow dual citizenship. So this is viewed as an effort to...

kind of encourage those Ukrainians who have moved overseas. And by the way, a huge number who are in Germany right now, the first cohort of Ukrainians who went there in 2022, they will in a year or two qualify for German citizenship. So I think the idea there is to encourage them to keep the Ukrainian identity. But then, you know, I hear another statistic from the World Congress of Ukrainians that

only about 40% of Ukrainian children who fled in 2022 are learning Ukrainian. So these are difficult statistics to deal with. But finally on this note, because we're talking about Ukraine's

most valuable assets, jewels, you know, children and talented people leaving. You know, the other thing, and this came up in Kyiv as well, is to continue on the fight against corruption. It's still very, very much alive and well here, whether you're a small business owner or the head of a bigger enterprise. But unless they really clobber that one down,

people are not going to come back because they're seeing life elsewhere where, you know, things are things are pretty easy to do without having to pay people off. And just finally, Michael, earlier on at the start of this conversation, we were talking about how the world is currently preoccupied with the war in the Middle East. What's the risk if the one in Europe is overlooked for any sustained period of time, given when the attention, even when the attention is on it, it still hasn't stopped the fighting.

Yeah, well, look right now. I mean, today, as we sit here, there's talk about and under great pressure from the Israelis that the United States used its most advanced bomb to take out a alleged, you know, nuclear weapon production facility buried in the mountains in Iran. And, you know, I'm sure people here are asking the question, well,

If Israel is to ask that of the United States, why can't an ally like Ukraine ask for them to use everything, all the might they have to push Mr. Putin back?

So I think, you know, we've talked for so long over the years. I think it has been already. And I always say autocrats and dictators watch each other. And you can bet your buck that the leaders in Iran have been watching very closely for

of what the Putins of the world have been doing and what they get away with. And let's remind everyone that the Iranians have been causing a lot of global disruption to shipping routes, things like that, through proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, with, by the way, apparently Russian targeting information, striking ships in the Black Sea. So also doing things in a very, very covert way so the blame doesn't get back to you.

I can answer that this way too, because I am essentially on the shores of the Black Sea right now, but

If Russia was to get more bold and actually cause a blockade of the Black Sea, people in Cairo in a few days time, these things don't take long, are not going to be able to afford bread. People in other African countries where Ukrainian grain is shipped are going to die. They're going to die of starvation.

And people will pay higher prices around the world for certain goods that come out of Ukraine. That is why I think it's not only the Red Sea, but it's also the Black Sea that we have to protect with equal vigor and determination. Otherwise, these things are going to very much reverberate around the world. Michael, great to speak to you as ever. Thank you very much for your time. Likewise. Thank you for having me.

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