Frontline special - military analyst Sean Bell
26:25 Share

BetterHelp Online Therapy bought this 30-second ad to remind you, right now, wherever you are, to unclench your jaw, relax your shoulders, take a deep breath in and out.

Feels better, right? That's 15 seconds of self-care. Imagine what you could do with more. Visit BetterHelp.com slash Random Podcast for 10% off your first month of therapy. No pressure, just help. But for now, just relax.

I want my dog to live a long, happy life, maybe even hit 19. So I feed them Ollie. Ollie's fresh and nutritious human-grade meals are made to support their health and happiness with protein-packed recipes dogs go crazy for, like beef with sweet potatoes, turkey with blueberries, or lamb with cranberries. Honestly, you might start thinking, dang, my dog eats better than I do. And that's probably true when it comes to Ollie. Head to ollie.com slash healthy pup and use code healthy pup to get 60% off your first box of meals.

Plus, they offer a clean bowl guarantee on the first box. So if you're not completely satisfied, you'll get your money back. That's O-L-L-I-E dot com slash HealthyPup. And enter code HealthyPup to get 60% off your first box. Feed your forever friend with Oli. Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble, and I executive produce the podcast.

The World in 10 is partnered with Frontline, the interview series from Times Radio, available on YouTube, with expert analysis of the world's conflicts. At the weekend, we bring you Frontline interviews in full. Here's one from this week. I hope you find it interesting. Hello and welcome to Frontline for Times Radio. I'm Louis Sykes. Today we're joined by retired Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell. Sean is a former fighter pilot, military analyst and co-host of the Red Matrix podcast. Sean, welcome.

Hey, good day to you. I'm not quite sure what time it is with you, but out here in Kiev, it's about a lunchtime on a beautiful sunny day. Well, I did want to start with that. Yesterday, Vladimir Putin announced that he's open to some sort of agreement or the idea of a ceasefire. You've been in Kiev for the last week and in Ukraine. Does it feel like Russia is preparing to halt their attacks there?

No, I have to say, you know, talking to a number of people out here in Ukraine, you know, it's, you know, clearly I'm not talking to the whole population. I can't possibly speak for the whole population. But there's a sense of incredulity here, first of all, about how come the Americans have gone from being their best ally for three years to suddenly being their enemy and dancing closely with the Russians, right?

But secondly, working out, OK, what don't you understand that Putin will never stop this war, a ceasefire to what end? How would it earth or would it be actually policed and the like? And besides, fundamentally, Ukraine says that whilst they're prepared to talk,

they're not prepared to concede their sovereignty. And they have been fighting this war for 300 years, not since 2022. And they are pretty clear that there is no future where Russia sees Ukraine as an independent sovereign nation. And therefore, how can you negotiate? And I think that what's pretty clear is the headline terms

of what Russia said, despite the fact they'd been nodding their heads saying, yes, of course, we're open to some peace. Their terms were Ukraine can't join NATO, no NATO troops on their border, and Ukraine can't rearm and re-equip. That's not the DNA of a sovereign nation. So at the moment, Ukrainians are just a bit incredulous, sort of wondering where on earth this is going. They want an end to the war. They just can't quite see how President Trump's going about it.

Well, on that, the Times is reporting this morning that Steve Witkoff, who has been acting as a sort of envoy to Moscow, might have been dismissed by the Kremlin or sent packing in a way. You know, is Zelensky right? I mean, I think you probably by the sounds of things agree with this, but is Zelensky right when he says Putin wants to continue this war?

Well, I think the danger is in the media, we get sort of transfixed by the day to day details and by, you know, American going out to speak to Putin to have a conversation. The trouble is the foundations are what I look at. And let's talk bluntly, you know, ceasefires only work if both sides have sort of got themselves in a bit of a stalemate and see benefits in bringing the war to an end.

or one side has won and the other side has lost, in which case it's agreeing the terms of the surrender. Neither of those two situations exist at the moment. The only person who wants this war to end now is President Trump, and he's put pressure to bear on Ukraine, on President Zelensky to agree to at least a 30-day ceasefire. But of course, how on earth do you encourage President Putin to do so? Now, Putin will not want to upset Ukraine

President Trump so early in his presidency. But it's been pretty clear, I think, that Russia is on the front foot. It is winning bluntly in the war. It is ejecting the Ukrainians out of the Kursk region and is making progress by pushing Ukraine forces back on the front line. So in that context, why would President Putin stop? And therefore, all of these theatrics around visits and potential negotiations,

The only person who must be chuckling away is President Putin himself, who must have thought all his birthdays had come at once, having initially tried to take Ukraine and failed, been involved in a long and bloody conflict where the West was gradually stepping up and making life more and more difficult. Suddenly, the main player in the West, the US, has suddenly changed the view entirely. And suddenly, I think President Putin sees a green light to go ahead and achieve his full objectives.

And how closely should we continue watching the battlefield developments at this point? Obviously, there's Kursk, which we'll come on to. But overnight, there were continued drone attacks by both sides, Ukraine hitting more oil refineries, Russia striking across northern Ukraine with drones. Is that, you know, should we should we look at that as whether or not Russia or Ukraine, for that matter, are really willing to bring a halt to the fighting?

Well, it's a great question because it's almost impossible to tell at the moment. I think what Ukraine is trying to do is create the most stubborn resistance and to make the price of success in Ukraine higher.

so expensive for Russia that they will have to stop. Most military analysts believe that President Putin does not really want to do another round of mobilization because that might erode his support base at home. After all, there's huge casualties. He can control the media. He can control the messaging going out to Russia. But when brothers, sons, daughters do not come back from the front line and there are funerals,

Gradually, the distrust starts to build. And therefore, there is a view, you know, Russia's lost a lot of tanks, a lot of military equipment, and is struggling to sustain the level of its fighting. Yes, it's used North Korean troops. They seem to have suffered an immense number of casualties there.

as well. And therefore, it might well suit Russia to have some form of pause at some stage. And by pause, I don't mean a 30-day catch your breath. I'm talking about five years where they can rearm, build more tanks, build more weapons, look at very closely how they fought the war, where the West was strong and where the West was weak.

and therefore plan on how to start again in five years time. So there is a benefit for some sort of pause in this war. I think Ukraine just making life as difficult as possible for Russia so that it can't break through. And I think the one thing I would say with a sense of relief, particularly on the Ukrainian side,

is that when America decided to stop the flow of weapons into Ukraine, that created a sense of panic because although on financial terms, Europe provides about as much as America, when you look at actual bombs, bullets and missiles, America provides far more than Europe does. That could have been catastrophic in the longer term. The good news was that

Ukraine does hold stocks of weapons. The last time that the flow of American weapons was stopped in 2023, it was stopped for several months. But, you know, there were enough stockpiles to keep it going. The one really dangerous thing for Ukraine was when America said we're going to stop intelligence sharing because literally that was like a light switch. It was turned off in a heartbeat.

And that made life incredibly difficult for Ukraine. So I suspect at the moment, you know, Ukraine is just about holding its own. It is slowly retreating, but it's trying to make life as painful as possible. Meanwhile, the question then remains, what is Europe going to do about it? And what is President Trump's plan B?

Well, I certainly want to come on to that. But just one more on that on that ceasefire idea. I mean, we've heard the Russians and Putin himself being quite critical of this idea of a 30 day ceasefire. He essentially says there's nuances to it. But but he also seemed to imply that there's no mechanism or kind of policing method to hold an immediate ceasefire. But just

Should we read into that? Is he right there? I mean, I think most people would imagine it. You know, if if the leader of the military says stop fighting, you can issue that order and troops will stop.

I know in an idealistic world, you're absolutely right. But we're talking about over a thousand kilometers of frontline and exactly where that frontline is, who owns what and where is actually quite difficult to know. And it's not like established trench lines. This is door to door fighting. And you can imagine just how trigger happy anybody would be on the frontline.

And, you know, without an established... Now, one of the ways of doing it is everybody withdraws 500 meters to create a one kilometer buffer zone.

But if you're Ukrainian and you've been fighting for every inch of your territory, are you really going to walk away 500 metres and expect that Russia will do the same and expect to be able to return to your starting positions at the end of the 30th? Of course you're not. You're going to be deeply, deeply sceptical of that. How are you going to police any gunfire or whatever? If a ceasefire was genuinely, as it's meant to be, it's a precursor to the end to the conflict,

then in a way, all the soldiers are a sense of relief because they go, thank goodness, we don't want to be the last person to die in this war. We want to prepare ourselves for the peace. Thank God it's over.

That is not what's being put on the table at the moment. Nobody, I think, from the Ukrainian side, nobody from the Russian side believes that any ceasefire is going to lead to a peace. And therefore, all it means is both sides are going to be rearming. Both sides are going to be looking to restart with an advantage.

you know, jump across the start line slightly early, which might not sound very sportsmanlike. This is not a sport. It's war. And therefore, I think it's very, very difficult practically to police a 30 day ceasefire if there's no realistic prospect of that lasting peace following on from that process.

And a big part of that that Putin also raised in his announcements yesterday was, of course, Kursk. It appears that Ukraine have now lost Sudsar, that town in Kursk, taken by Ukraine in that lightning offensive back in over the summer. Is it likely Ukraine will now have to withdraw? Could they relaunch their offensive? Is it maybe beneficial that they do withdraw from Russia if they do want some sort of ceasefire?

I think what's fascinating here is when you look back to last year when they moved into Russia, there were many of us, I have to say, Minim, myself included, who were somewhat skeptical about what they were actually trying to achieve because it's quite difficult to sustain operations within Russia. They were clearly diverting limited resources, in other words, taking resources away from the very active frontline.

President Zelenskyy made clear that he had no intention of holding the territory, but it was clearly a distraction to try to force Russia, give them some embarrassment, undermine President Putin's position. But Putin largely just said, OK, if you want to have some troops up there, I will just continue pushing in the Donbass. You've eroded your position. I think what's changed now is that with the prospect of President Trump trying to have a conversation,

You imagine now that you are the Russian president. You are not going to want to enter those negotiations with Ukrainian soldiers on any Russian territory. That is a bargaining chip that you're not going to tolerate. And I do not think it's a surprise that President Putin has shifted focus. The progress in the Donbass has been a bit slower of late, but 50,000 soldiers have massed against what's believed to be about 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

And you can only imagine the orders that were given by President Putin to his generals, get these Ukrainians out of Russia. I don't care how you do it, get them out of Russia. And I don't think it's a coincidence that we're seeing this big push, huge casualties, but I don't think Russia cares. They just want to make sure that they take that potential option off the negotiating table for Ukraine. So the real question then is, does Ukraine hold out to the last man?

Or do they go, you know, we never intended to hold this. Let's let's withdraw gracefully, preserve our combat power and potentially then go back to bolster the front lines down the Donbass. I mean, that's a tactic we don't really know. But but again, watching President Putin turn up allegedly into the Kursk region in his beautifully beautiful,

new fatigues that have never seen the light of day. Putin's never served in the military, so it was all a little bit odd. And he was looking every day of his 70 plus years, I have to say, out of the suit and out of the hallowed halls in Moscow. But I do think this is all part of get the Ukrainians out. And for Ukraine, it's how do you preserve combat power and not allow that to have a critical, critically damage your fighting capability.

And the loss of Suds in Kursk came in the middle of the US suspension of arms and intelligence sharing with Kiev. Keith Kellogg was on Fox News last week. He kind of dampened down the idea that it could have had a huge impact, you know, saying, oh, well, a few days of weapon suspension won't change the tide of the war. But is he right? I mean, there's been some significant shifts in that time, hasn't there?

They have. I think it's always a bit dangerous to jump to conclusions here. My own view is that whilst the stopping weapons flowing potentially was very serious, as I've alluded to, I think, you know, the Ukrainians normally carry several months worth of supplies in spare. What they would have had to do is to create a plan to be more careful with the use of munitions.

But it wasn't like, you know, go to the shops, there aren't any anymore. Oh, dear, we're stuck. I think far more seriously, far more worrying was that intelligence, because that was turned off in a heartbeat. And everything that helps Ukraine is

It's all about getting inside the mind of your enemy. If you can listen to the Russian communications, you can work out what they're going to do next. If you use satellite imagery to watch what the Russian movements are, you can warn the Ukrainians. You can provide accurate target details so they can fire their precision weapons and have decisive effect. As soon as you turn all that off.

Ukrainian forces are blind. They're worse, more poorly informed than their Russian counterparts. And I think that makes any offensive action very difficult. And also you can't anticipate where the Russians are going to attack you. And therefore, I think that was far more dangerous than the lack of weapons. How much effect that had on the battlefield? I think history books will be written about that. But I think that's the one that would worry me most.

And the U.S. has sort of claimed that that pause in support forced Kiev into these negotiations. But does Trump now have the ability to force Putin to the table as well? I mean, the administration today says they've toughened sanctions on Russian oil, gas and banking. Is that likely to have any effect?

Yeah, I mean, I was trying to look into these extra sanctions. I believe actually there's part of this was a window in the post Biden era where some of the sanctions were paused and, you know, that that extension hasn't that that lapse has not been extended. So I'm not sure this is a significant ramp up of sanctions.

I have to say, unfortunately, I'm a grey-haired warhorse of a different era. I've never been a believer that sanctions are going to be critically enabling. First of all, the Russian economy relies on oil and gas, a lot of it. Whilst the West may not be buying much of it, Russia is still selling the same amount of oil and gas. It's just selling it through a different means now. And it's still making a lot of money. The world still needs oil and gas. Russia is still providing oil and gas.

So, yes, are we ratcheting up pressure? Is it uncomfortable for Putin? Is his economy suffering with inflation? All of those answers, yes. But I remember a year ago, some of the briefings I was being given was that the Russian economy within a year will be on its knees. Well, we're a year later and those same briefings are now saying within a year, the Russian economy will be on its knees.

So I'm very sceptical that that is an effective lever. I think the real question for me is, I think President Trump has been very clear. He wants to bring the war to an end and stop the killing. He has forced, encouraged,

depending on your adjective of choice, President Zelensky to come to the table. But so far, all he's used is carrots, not sticks with President Putin. And this might be a very clever ruse to flush out President Putin's real objectives. In other words, if he does want an off ramp,

And let's face it, it's been a very difficult war for Russia. If he does want an off ramp, President Trump is clearly trying to give him that option, taking NATO membership off the table, talking in language which President Putin might understand. The real question, though, is if President Putin doesn't take the bait and actually just goes, yeah, but but.

but which is what we're seeing at the moment and carries on. I think that's the moment where President Trump potentially looks a little humiliated. And the question then is, what are his options to actually bring this war to an end? And I think that's where the conversation gets very interesting. And what perhaps are some of those sticks that Trump could use to encourage Putin to come to the table? I mean, have we heard any sign of what he might be willing to do outside of sanctions?

We haven't heard anything, but I do think what's fascinating is on the international stage. I mean, let's be let's be really clear as an old warrior. If we we have in the West, we have an order of magnitude more military capability than Russia.

If we, to date, we've largely given Ukraine enough support to keep them in the game, but we've not given them enough support to stop Russia in its tracks. And we could do that. Yes, there are risks with doing that. But frankly, there are risks in not doing it as well. And President Putin knows full well that if the West was to get involved, he would be stopped. And that's why he's been so threatening. That's why the West has largely kowtowed away from him. But, and it's a big but, if Ukraine

Europe, who largely took their security under the NATO umbrella, suddenly go, is America going to be quite as reliable as a partner anymore? And second is that we therefore might be it might be more dangerous for Europe. And we've just given away a lot of our weapons. We've taken our stockpiles that were already relatively limited down to even more dangerous levels.

we've now got a double whammy. We've got to try and increase our weapons stocks, make our defense more robust. But also, if Ukraine was to fall,

That has profound implications for European security. All of a sudden now, I don't think it's a coincidence that we've started seeing Zakir Starmer talk about potential for boots on the ground, potential for things like no-fly zones. And there's a lot of discussion. Sky Shield is another one of those that's recently done the round of how do you

create a more credible deterrence for against Russia, because it's pretty clear they're not going to stop this through a negotiated settlement. And any negotiation won't probably be the worth of the paper it's written on because it won't guarantee the security of Ukraine. And I think that's a really difficult conversation. But the West, particularly Europe, seems to be up for it.

And as we've said earlier, you're in Kiev, Ukraine's capital at the moment. What is the reaction been there among Ukrainians to this change in the US administration and Trump's drive for what he calls a kind of quick peace?

I think there's an element of shock. Ukraine knows full well that they could not have survived without Western support, and they're very grateful for that. There's no question about that. I mean, there's a really interesting question. I think any country in the world

apart from maybe America and China, would not be able to withstand the onslaught. They would need help from allies. And of course, allies have helped Ukraine. What they suddenly do is why this sudden change about face? How can the president of America suddenly ignore Ukraine? But I do sense when I was here in October last, I sensed still an element of resilience, an element of determination to still prevail

I remember literally two years ago, I was berated regularly by a Ukrainian friend who said, why are you so downbeat? These things happen. We will kick Russia out. You know, they'll go out with a bloody nose and that will be the end of the war.

You know, now that feeling is very different in Ukraine. There's a weariness. There's a sense that this has got to come to an end. This is three years. The price has been huge. The impact on our families, our culture, our prosperity, our future.

And I think that that is profound. I think it's also interesting, though, that President Zelensky's future has been questioned about elections and the like. When I was here in October, I couldn't find anybody who had a good word to say about President Zelensky. And I was quite surprised because I thought on the world stage, he's been outstanding. I have to say this visit.

everybody I've spoken to has been very supportive of President Zelensky. They don't necessarily agree with all his policies, but when your leader is absolutely humiliated in the White House the way that President Zelensky was, that has galvanized the nation behind him. There is no doubt in my mind that he enjoys unrivaled support now. They want to see him through. Whether he long-term stays, if you look at his face, I've not met the man, but it's etched. The

the trials and tribulations of this war are etched all over his face. But there's no doubt at the moment out there in the streets of Kiev. Now, one thing I should add is that Kiev is a microcosm. It's a beautiful city. My mother was worried about me coming out here because she could imagine it was like the London in the Blitz. It isn't.

You know, you struggle to find any buildings damaged if you walk around the city. Of course, there are some, but it's not obvious. The one thing that is obvious is there's not fighting age men wandering the streets. The bars and everything are closed around 10 a.m.

And Maydan Square, where all of the flags are fluttering, where there's a flag place for every life lost from the city. Tens of thousands of flags. And I went down there and spent another hour just sat there in the sunshine. And just I find it incredibly humbling. I find it very moving as a as a military guy, because it's very palpable. Whilst the city bustle carries on, it's a very tangible example of just what price that they're paying here for this, for their freedom.

And I wonder if you could tell us a bit of some of the work you've been involved in while you've been in Kiev. Yeah, it's been three main themes, I think. One of them is Superhumans is one of the charities. In short, I spent two years in Afghanistan and I watched a lot of our young men and women, largely men, lose arms and legs. And how do you it's one thing repairing them physically. Then you've got to get them used to prosthetics. And then thirdly, how you get their mental health.

frame the right Ukraine is suffering an order of magnitude, maybe two orders of magnitude more suffering. And I last time I was out, I raised £10,000, took it out to Lviv. And it was a very moving visit there. This time, I'm only coming to Kiev, but I regularly support a team that brings veterans from Lviv to Kiev

for the weekend, takes them to a football match, buys them a beer, gives them a pizza, basically just part of their rehabilitation. And I was able to meet up with some of them, which again was very humbling. You know, can I change the dial and solve the problem for them? No, I can't. But can I do a little bit to help the morale of a few of the people? Absolutely right. I think that was true. Second one is that the ghost of Keeve, who was a famous fighter pilot, Deuce,

He lost his life a couple of years ago. His mother lives in Kyiv and it's always a privilege to meet her, Lilia, because my mum used to worry about me flying. I worry about my son who's in the military. And of course she worried about her son. And it's fascinating seeing the work she's doing, trying to inspire the next generation of people. And the third thing I do out here is I, for the last three years, I'm not a journalist. I'm a former military guy. I'm a talking head for the Ministry of Defence.

There's a danger when you don't come to a war zone. I don't want to go to the front line, but you get a very different flavor of what's going on when you come and visit. And I've done a series of media interviews for Ukraine television. They're always fascinated about

Why is the West doing this? Why is Trump? And you could be a bit of a bridge into that. So I find it very heartwarming. And everybody I've met is just so incredibly grateful, both to the West, both to our country for the support they provide, but also just on an individual level, that people are prepared to come to a war zone, spend a bit of money, listen to them and put a physical and metaphorical hug on

around them it's invaluable well Sean Bell thank you very much for for sharing that experience with us and uh and coming on frontline today to speak with us

Hey, you know what would make your customer service help desk way better? Dumping it and then switching to Intercom. But you're not quite ready to make that change. We get it. That's why Finn, the world's leading AI customer service agent, is now available on every help desk. Finn can instantly resolve up to 80% of your tickets, which makes your customers happier and gets you off the customer service rep hiring treadmill. Finn by Intercom, the leading customer service AI agent,

now available on every help desk. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.