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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Laura Cook and Stuart Willey. As soon as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into force in January, the world's attention shifted to a significant degree elsewhere. To
Ukraine and the US's negotiations with Russia, to Signalgate and to tariffs. In between these stories, the ceasefire unraveled, with Israeli airstrikes killing hundreds of people in Gaza and reminding everyone of the desperate situation there.
So what has happened since those strikes and what are the prospects for another ceasefire? Our guest today is Dr Julie Norman, Senior Associate Fellow in RUCI's Middle East Programme and Associate Professor at University College London, where she teaches on Middle East politics and US foreign policy. Julie, thank you so much for joining us.
Donald Trump took a lot of credit for the Gaza ceasefire, but do you think the US president is now content to just let the war go on?
Well, I think we never know exactly what is on Trump's mind and what his intentions are. What we do know is that Trump came into office really intent on getting that first part of the ceasefire through. And to give credit where credit is due, he did that and largely through his envoy, Steve Witkoff, and they did get that first ceasefire deal in place. But
But the question mark with that was always how much they were going to put the pressure on to get from the first phase of that ceasefire, which allowed for the initial exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and, of course, a cessation of hostilities, to the really crucial second phase, which is really to discuss the permanent end to the war. And that's where we really did not see...
Any pressure from Trump in the midterms of that. We also saw Trump discussing, you know, voluntary migration from Gaza, the establishment of Riviera, just very different messaging on Gaza's future. And I think then just a big question mark on what he really wanted for the region. And since then, we've seen much more of a green lighting, I would say, of some of Israel's ambitions in the Strip and in the region more broadly. Yeah.
Donald Trump's Gaza-Riviera plan seems to have been superseded by Egypt's one that sought to avoid removing Palestinians from Gaza. Can we argue that Donald Trump has just lost interest in this conflict?
You know, it's a good question because we haven't heard him talk about that Riviera plan so much. He even has kind of walked it back in some of his comments. But, you know, Stuart, once something like that is out there, it's out there. If you can't really bring it back in. I do think it was very important that many Arab states, especially Egypt, but also Jordan, Saudi Arabia, others, protested.
very much held the line and said, this is a no-go. We are not going to be accepting expelled Palestinians just across the Middle East. This is not the way this is going to happen. And I think it was very important for them to state that up front and hold that line. But what we have seen is that idea certainly being embraced, at least by some in Israel on the right, who, if not that entire plan, have kind of latched on to the idea of voluntary migration, then
creating conditions on the ground that encourage Palestinians, encourage Gazans to leave. So we have seen that take hold, at least in some pockets of the Israeli government, if not across the board. Will Benjamin Netanyahu keep trying to go through with that plan to take the Palestinians from Gaza to expel them, perhaps? What is it that's preventing him from doing it?
Yeah, so I would say, again, with Netanyahu, again, we're not exactly sure what he thinks about this plan completely either. For him right now, the focus is first and foremost on the war, and I would say has been using that somewhat strategically for his own political agenda.
situation in Israel as well, which has been beleaguered by different scandals, trials, court cases, etc. And having this war go on, many in Israel say, is advantageous for Netanyahu politically. I would say, though, even across the board for Israelis, wherever they stand ideologically, it would be very difficult for almost any government right now to accept a continued Hamas presence, at least in any kind of governing or military capacity. It
in Gaza. So there is, I think, some consensus even outside of Netanyahu's party around that. But the pressure is on Netanyahu to get the hostages home. Many Israelis feel it's time to end the war, that there's not much more that can be gained by military action. There's no other alternative to releasing Israelis and also to just ending the tragedies and the horrors for Gazans at the same time.
To end those horrors, is a ceasefire even now possible again in Gaza? Well, Stuart, I would say there are a lot of people still trying to work on that. There's a lot of different actors working behind the scenes. And really, I would say on two different fronts. One is simply trying to get an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. So more of the hostage for prisoner swaps, a little bit longer of cessation of hostilities, etc.,
that's what Israel has been pushing for. And with some in the U S have been pushing for, for Palestinians, for many in the Arab world and for, for Hamas, they instead of been pushing for trying to get again to that phase two to actually discuss a permanent end to the war. So they don't want to see so much, just a indefinite extension of phase one, as much as making sure the ceasefire gets to that phase two. So that's really where the impact,
is. Unfortunately, it's where the impasse has always hit all throughout 2024. And we're trying to get even to an initial ceasefire. This is often where things broke down. And as we can see from the last couple of weeks, increasing Israeli airstrikes, ground operations in Gaza, then today return of Hamas rocket fire into Israel. You know, we just see the events on the ground changing very rapidly, which again, pushes that ceasefire even further out of reach. We've
We've seen, as you say, Hamas returning to rocket fire on Israel and a renewed ground operation by Israel into Gaza. What is the significance that we're seeing the IDF seizing parts of the Gaza Strip again? Yeah, so this is a really important development that it's not just airstrikes, but it is ground operations. It is evacuations of Gazans from different pockets of the Strip in two main areas.
in two main ways. One, along the border areas, so really increasing the buffer zone, so to speak, between Israel and Gaza. So this has been something that Israel has been doing since the beginning of the war, but that buffer zone is now expanding. The second element is establishing essentially horizontal corridors across Gaza in several strategic positions. And
There's been one corridor through the middle of Gaza called the Netsarim corridor, which the military was using really throughout most of the 2024 offensive. And there's now another corridor in the south of Gaza that essentially is functioning the same. There's different interpretations of what these
Different kinds of incursions mean some see these as laying the groundwork for a long term Israeli presence or occupation. Others, however, though, see it more as just really trying to facilitate the military operations for allowing for quick interception.
in and out kind of access for allowing Israel to have more maneuverability while the military operation is still taking place. And I would say, we don't really know. It could be both. It could be neither. But it is certainly having an effect on the ground at the moment in terms of squeezing the population into even smaller pockets of the Strip. All of this comes as we see hundreds of thousands of Gazans on the move again. At the same time as an aid blockade, is there a sense that this will just go on indefinitely?
I would say it's an extremely grim situation right now. As you've noted, this is over a month now that humanitarian aid has effectively been blocked going into Gaza. And as we know, the situation was not good there prior to this month either, with finally just goods starting to come in during the January-February ceasefire. So that alone is causing immense difficulties for civilians.
But on top of that, to have people having to relocate yet again, most Gazans I know have moved countless times now. People literally have lost count how many times they've had to move. And as well as just, I think, over a thousand casualties over this last less than a month since the ceasefire broke down. So the situation is extremely dire in Gaza for civilians right now. I think we cannot overstate that enough.
And unfortunately, we do not really see a way out of this anytime soon with, again, this pandemic.
same logjam we keep coming back to that Hamas wants to negotiate the end of the war. Israel wants to maintain an ability to carry out military operations until they oust Hamas completely. And until there can be some kind of pass over that, I think we're going to unfortunately see this conflict continue for some time. Israel's hostages held now for 18 months. How realistic is it with this strategy that Israel could get some of them back alive?
Well, Stuart, I think this is certainly on the minds of many Israelis and absolutely, obviously, those of the hostages' families, in that the positions that the Israeli government is taking not only has ramifications within Gaza and in the region, but for the hostages themselves and trying to get them home. And the longer that this war goes on, the harder that becomes and the more danger that it puts those surviving hostages in. And the families have been very clear about that to Netanyahu,
and to the Israeli public more broadly. Julie, thank you. Dr. Julie Norman is a specialist in Middle East politics and US foreign policy at UCL here in London.
For more on the difficulties in reporting from Gaza and other conflict zones, listen back to an episode of The World in Ten on Saturday. That featured an extended conversation with The Sunday Times chief foreign correspondent, Christina Lam. But for today, that's it from us. Thanks for taking ten minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.
Thank you.
I don't know about you, but the number one thing I look forward to when I return from traveling is a good night's sleep in my own bed.
That has never been more true than it is now that I have a Sleep Number smart bed. I get so sore after traveling on planes, but after literally one night in my Sleep Number smart bed, my body feels restored, rested, and relaxed. The fact that my bed actually listens to my body and adjusts to my needs to keep me sleeping soundly all the way through the night is worth it alone. Not
to mention my husband and I never need to argue over firmness because we can each dial in our own sleep number setting. Why choose a Sleep Number smart bed? So you can choose your ideal comfort on either side. And now, for a limited time, Sleep Number smart beds start at $849. Prices higher in Alaska and Hawaii. Exclusively at a Sleep Number store near you. See store or sleepnumber.com for details.