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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey and Alex Dibble. Ten days ago, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth probably wanted to disappear.
Signalgate, and his role in it, was dominating the news worldwide. But at the end of that week, he still took the trouble to fly to Japan, stand in front of the cameras, and declare that Washington would maintain a robust, ready and credible deterrence against China.
China responded furiously, conducting live-fire military drills around Taiwan in a show of growing military might. Our attention last week was very much on Donald Trump's tariffs, so we haven't had the chance to analyse all this until now. So let's do that with our guest today, Richard Spencer, The Times' China correspondent. Richard, these seem like quite punchy comments from Pete Hegseth. What was behind his visit, and is this the long-talked-about US pivot to China?
It's a key visit to a long-term American ally. It's reassuring American allies in East Asia of America's support. In terms of the growing issue for America over not just the Trump administration, but the previous couple of administrations, the rise of China has been a key issue to discuss with all those Western allies in East Asia, like Japan.
So it was a fairly standard visit. You've got a new defense sector, a new administration. You visit your allies and say, we're behind you. It is not that surprising, given that tensions are high with China at the moment, given that China has been quite aggressive in its attitude towards Taiwan, that Hegsworth would also say, send a message from Japan to Taiwan, which he didn't visit. But it sent a message to Taiwan saying, yeah, we've got your back.
deterrence against a Chinese invasion is core to our strategic goals. Now, that is stronger than America has said before. Up until a couple of years ago, America had a policy of strategic ambiguity, as it's called, towards Taiwan, never quite making clear whether it would come to Taiwan's defense if it was attacked by China. Now, that ambiguity was seen as strong enough to deter China
but also strong enough, weak enough that Taiwan wouldn't do anything to provoke a Chinese invasion like declaring formally independence from China. So that was a policy to maintain the status quo, not just Trump, but Biden believes that with China rising, the status quo is no longer the status quo, if you like, that China is a bigger threat now.
to Taiwan and to American interests in the Pacific more generally. So they have been gradually chipping away at that ambiguity. Biden hinted that he would formally abandon that policy and openly say America would defend Taiwan if it was attacked. And now Hegsath seems to be saying that pretty clearly.
Richard, to what extent is Pete Hegseth's position on China and Taiwan driven by his personal views? And how much does it reflect a broader strategic direction within the Trump administration?
Yeah, so that's the million dollar question. There is definitely different sort of axes within the Trump White House in terms of their foreign policy altogether. As we know, we know this from the message Britain has received, the European Union has received, relations with Russia are never very clear. Trump himself has said that he regards Xi Jinping as a friend, as brilliant, which doesn't sound like the words of someone who is gearing up for confrontation with China.
Within the White House, within the MAGA universe, if you like, there, of course, is this very strong isolationist trend saying America shouldn't be defending any of these countries, whether it's Ukraine or Taiwan. It's none of America's business. America should be looking after its own interests.
And, you know, if Asia wants to defend itself against China, that's up to it. Now, we know that Hegseth and Marco Rubio are very much, who's the Secretary of State, are very much not of that thinking. They are from the traditional right of the Republican Party, anti-communist, hardline on security issues, defend the free world against a communist state like China. Rubio is clearly somewhat uncomfortable there.
with the Trump positioning on Russia. But on China, they've been allowed to be fairly clear that they believe that
China should be confronted if necessary. So the question is, does Hegseth going and saying this Japan means that that argument is won in the White House, that America will defend its allies in East Asia, will be strong behind that alliance, including defending even Taiwan. That will be the logical interpretation. But I say logic doesn't necessarily come into it.
Is there a tension here between a White House that presses an America-first foreign policy, the isolationist trend you touched on, and this somewhat stronger line now? Yeah, I mean, the point is generally being the principle, right, that America is the leading power in the Western alliance of free democracies.
all alliances stand together or they fall apart. I mean, that was the principle that if you defend freedom in Taiwan, you're also defending it in Europe and vice versa. Indeed, you know, Taiwan is very worried about the American position on Ukraine on the grounds that if
If America can say, yeah, we're right behind Ukraine, and then suddenly decide it doesn't want to defend them against Russia anymore, Taiwan is saying, well, maybe that would also happen to us. And indeed, so do other countries in East Asia, by the way, they're also saying, where does this leave us? Then, you know, you can also look at this in the light of tariffs, which also has been the other issue dominating the week.
Three days after Higgs-Less said that about Taiwan, imposed 32% tariffs on Taiwan, which draws attention to another feature of why America cares about East Asia is because
for the last 40 years, it's built East Asia into its supply chains. All those world-beating American companies that we're so used to, we kind of forget how they've emerged so recently out of a very American hegemonic engagement with the trading system, if you like. So on the one hand, Heges is saying, we're with you, East Asia, against China. On the other hand, all those countries that are most with America are
are also now being slapped with tariffs to weaken them. So there's a contradiction there. And that contradiction is still obviously being played out. Richard, talk us through the reaction from China on both tariffs and indeed on Pete Hegseth's comments, because we've seen another big Chinese naval exercise involving an aircraft carrier off Taiwan's coast.
You know, what has happened is that China now regards itself as a challenger to American hegemonic power. So it is not going to take anything lying down anymore. So it used to have this policy until President Xi came in.
It was actually called "hiding your light" is the Chinese expression for it, which basically went back to Deng Xiaoping. So it went back to 1980. Don't throw your weight around. Just do everything under the radar. Don't pretend to be challenging America. Xi Jinping's come in and changed all that. He says, you know, we are now a major power. Our interests cannot be challenged without a response from us.
He's had two major military exercises around Taiwan now in the last month, which is a definite sort of upping of the ante, incredibly aggressive. They were aggressive because they included, you know, using an aircraft carry group around Taiwan, multiple incursions into what Taiwan regards as its airspace. Of course, China regards Taiwan as part of China, so they said it's its airspace. You know, they... And they had...
live firing drills off the coast further south as well. Now, what was really different about it was the propaganda messaging around it. They had images showing a putative invasion of Taiwan. So they had, you know, they had locked up animations of explosions above Taiwanese cities. But they also showed off for the first time a newly developed hypersonic anti-ship missile. Now that's
saying, right to America, before you send your navy to defend Taiwan in case of war, this is what we can fire at your navy now. That was a missile that only came out last year and it's been shown off already to say, this is what we can target at you, America. So very tough response there. And on tariffs, as we've seen, China was the main target
single target of those tariffs. Now it has 54% additional extra tariffs from last year. And it is hit back immediately with retaliatory tariffs of its own. The Trump tariffs came in two stages. Trump announced 20% tariff last month and then an additional 34% tariffs this week. Beijing had already responded to that first round of tariffs with tariffs on American agricultural imports. This time they did a straight 34% tariff
on all imports from America. So a very clear response from China to America, whatever you do, we will reply to. We're no longer going to try and go along with your hegemony, as they would put it.
Richard, thank you. That is Richard Spencer, The Times' China correspondent. Last week, we looked at some of the unexpected consequences of Donald Trump's moves on tariffs. Look back for the episode called Why China Could Be the Winner on Liberation Day. But that's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.
You want work to be less hard work. You hear an ad for MHR, so you reach out. We connect your department systems, which leads to real-time data sharing that uncovers new insights, which empower your decision makers and triple monthly sales, which leads to high fives and awkward hugs. You say a big thank you. We say you're welcome.
This episode is sponsored by Womble Bond Dickinson, an international law firm of more than 1,300 lawyers across 37 offices in the United States.
and united kingdom in today's complex world new problems need new perspectives womble bond dickinson thrives on change bringing together people with different skill sets and experiences
to give their clients a competitive edge. Across a range of markets, they support businesses and private clients on critical challenges, from energy transition, digital transformation, and cross-border investment, to corporate finance, dispute resolution, and personal wealth planning. All with a mix of minds you won't find anywhere else. Womble Bond Dickinson. A point of view like no other. Discover more at WombleBondDickinson.com.