How Turkey plays an outsize role in global diplomacy
10:19 Share

Take control of the numbers and supercharge your small business with Xero. That's X-E-R-O. With our easy-to-use accounting software with automation and reporting features, you'll spend less time on manual tasks and more time understanding how your business is doing. 87% of surveyed U.S. customers agree Xero helps improve financial visibility. Search Xero with an X or visit Xero.com slash ACAST to start your 30-day free trial. Conditions apply.

BetterHelp Online Therapy bought this 30-second ad to remind you, right now, wherever you are, to unclench your jaw, relax your shoulders, take a deep breath in and out.

Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey.

For Turkey, the seeming end of a decades-long conflict with the Kurdish PKK has come, as that militant group says it's to lay down weapons and disband. It's a move that could alter the course of conflicts across Turkey's neighbourhood and points to President Erdogan's and Ankara's growing diplomatic heft.

My guest today is Liz Cookman, who has covered the twists and turns of Turkey's influence from Syria, Ukraine, and now Istanbul, where she's reporting for The Times. Liz, just how big a deal is the end of the PKK armed struggle?

Yeah, it's a really big deal. The PKK has been fighting the Turkish state for over 40 years. Tens of thousands of people have died. This is the first time that they have come this far with any kind of peace negotiations. They have had them before, but they've usually collapsed after a while. And it could finally mean an end to one of the world's longest running conflicts. It's not over yet.

They've made it clear that disarmament depends on how the Turkish government responds, especially around Kurdish rights. And it's a bit of a mystery what the Turkish government has agreed to in terms of concessions that they're willing to give the Kurdish side. They say they've given nothing, but it is widely believed that Erdogan is seeking Kurdish backing because there's an election in three years and he also...

believed that he wants to change the constitution to be able to run again so it's a major step but what happens next is really crucial

It feels like it's been a belter of a year for Turkey's President Erdogan, with Turkey playing a crucial role in so many conflicts now. How important has Turkey become diplomatically? Yeah, he had an incredible week a few weeks ago when the Russia-Ukraine peace talks were here. And at the same time, he'd helped mediate between India and Pakistan, and he'd helped release a hostage from Gaza and

Also the PKK deal all in the space of one week. So yeah, he was looking pretty incredible at that time. So Turkey's become a key diplomatic player. And mainly that's because they have this ability to generally speak to all sides. Experts or analysts often call this Turkey's 360 strategy where they try to maintain relationships with everybody. It's also a NATO member. It has working ties with Russia, which is quite rare now.

at the moment. And it also plays a central role in the Middle East. So all of these places are really important to geopolitics at the moment, and that's helped Turkey rise. And also it's been heavily influenced by the re-election of Trump, who

Erdogan has quite a good relationship with. They've had tensions, they've had difficulties, but I think Trump, he tends to have a good relationship with authoritarians. They share some similar political strategies. So they seem to get each other. And that's really helped bring Erdogan in from the cold because for several years, he was kind of in isolation due to human rights issues in his own country. And a lot of people didn't want to be seen dealing with him. But

Then also Turkey controls the Black Sea, which is extremely important to grain exports. And again, the Russia-Ukraine war. And then it's had a key role for the last 10 years in migration. So it houses the world's largest refugee population with millions of people from Syria, from Afghanistan, from Sudan. And that gives it a lot of leverage over Europe.

So there's a lot of global flashpoints that come together that give it this kind of importance right now. So a really pivotal position.

Is the relationship between Erdogan and Trump likely to stay cordial? I think they've always had a complicated and at times tempestuous relationship. Erdogan has built a lot of his domestic support on an image of him standing up to the West. He talks openly, and he did after the Russia-Ukraine talks, about how he is playing a key role in reshaping the global order, as he puts it.

And local state TV talks regularly about how the focus of global power is shifting from the US to the Middle East and Turkey. And so although he maintains a good relationship with the US, he also uses it being anti-Western or anti-US as a way to leverage support internally. So it's kind of complicated and I think it always has the ability to sort of tip the wrong way.

Turkey and the US long backed different sides in Syria's civil war. But now Trump has given the thumbs up to new Syrian President Sharaa, who Erdogan met at the weekend. You were reporting from Damascus as Assad fell. How does Turkey's support for Sharaa tip the balance of power in the neighbourhood? Well, Turkey has had a long running relationship with Hayat Tahir al-Sham. And

They deny any involvement with the rebel operation to take Damascus and to topple Assad, although it seems fairly clear that they did at least know about it and perhaps gave the green light.

They're well positioned. They had these open communications with Shara and HTS, which other people didn't have. You know, it's very much in Turkey's interest also to stabilize Syria and to help build a stronger Syria because Syria is on its border. Again, there are millions of Syrians that now live in Turkey. There is a generation of Syrians that were born in Turkey. And

Turkey is very keen to play a big role in terms of, you know, the construction and the rebuilding of Syria. If we pull back to the end of the Kurdish conflict, does the end of fighting the PKK perhaps bolster Turkey's prestige and influence in the region?

Yeah, well, it's not fully over yet, but it's certainly a big step towards it. And it really boosts Turkey's hand regionally in a big way because for decades it's been fighting this insurgency, which has been a huge drain on resources and on its regional relationships because the PKK were, many of them were based in Syria and Iraq, which caused a lot of diplomatic issues between Turkey and Syria and Turkey and Iraq and Turkey, especially northern Iraq, where there's a big PKK movement.

presence. And also with the West, Turkey's heavy handed response to the PKK in recent years has led to a lot of accusations of human rights abuses. There are areas of the southeast that were subjected to heavy military operations.

And it was very unpopular outside of Turkey. So this now gives them the chance to focus much more on diplomacy, on power projection abroad rather than fighting this sort of endless internal war. All of this, as Turkey's position within NATO has come to a prominence that we haven't seen in a long time. The second largest army in the alliance, just as Europe is worried about Trump's commitment to it. Is there a sense that Turkey's moment has come?

Yeah, I think definitely. I mean, Turkey has a large experienced military. Unlike most of Europe, conscription is still a thing here. A lot of young men join the military for usually around 15 months. And Turkey also has this key location where they're kind of at the crossroads between Europe and Asia. And so that's made it really indispensable for regional security. It controls the sea routes, such as the Bosphorus.

There are important NATO bases here. There's a rapidly growing defence industry as well. So Turkish drones and naval ships have become really important globally, particularly most famously probably the Bayraktar drones, which played a key role early on in the Ukraine conflict and also in Nagorno-Karabakh before.

And so, yeah, when Europe has some issues with defence spending, you know, defence spending has fallen to quite small amounts of GDP. That means Turkey has become extremely important. I struggle to remember a time when President Erdogan wasn't leading Turkey. If we think about the constitution, his 25-year stretch looks set to end in 2028. Will Turkey's global mediator role continue?

So Turkey has actually long had this strategy of no problems at home, no problems abroad. So the idea has always been since Ataturk founded the Turkish Republic in the 1920s, the idea has always been to be friends with everybody. That's something that probably will remain. But whether Erdogan will leave office in 2028 is a different question. There's

There's obviously been huge anti-government protests here recently, which I covered. And I also interviewed Oscar Ozel, who is the leader of the opposition. So they broke out after the Istanbul mayor, who was considered to pose the most significant threat to Erdogan at the next election. He was imprisoned. He's now being held on corruption charges.

Erdogan has made some comments recently that he won't be running for election again. But it seems to a lot of people that this may be part of a strategy. The idea of him stepping down seems slightly at odds with his past approach to politics. OK, Liz, thank you. Liz Cookman reports for The Times from Istanbul.

She mentioned there President Erdogan's role in those recent Russia-Ukraine talks. Last week, we heard from Edward Lucas, who argued it's in Putin's interest to string out talks. Scroll back and listen to the episode called Trump's Russia Weak Spot Gives Putin an Opportunity. But that's it for now. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

Take control of the numbers and supercharge your small business with Xero, that's X-E-R-O.

With our easy-to-use accounting software with automation and reporting features, you'll spend less time on manual tasks and more time understanding how your business is doing. 87% of surveyed U.S. customers agree Xero helps improve financial visibility. Search Xero with an X or visit xero.com slash ACAST to start your 30-day free trial. Conditions apply. With the Wealthfront Cash account, you can earn 4% annual percentage yield from partner banks on your cash until you're ready to invest.

The cash account grows your money with no account maintenance fees and free instant withdrawals whenever you need it. Money works better here. Go to Wealthfront.com to start saving and investing today. Cash account offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC member FINRA SIPC. Wealthfront is not a bank. The APY on cash deposits as of December 27, 2024 is representative, subject to change, and requires no minimum. Funds in the cash account are swept to partner banks where they earn the variable APY.