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Iran could strike the US - at home or abroad
2025/6/18
World in 10
L
Lina Khatib
Lina Khatib: 伊朗的军事实力虽然不如美国和以色列，但仍然具备一定的反击能力。我主要关注的是，伊朗的弹道导弹计划长期以来未受到国际社会的足够重视，现在已经成为了一个不容忽视的问题。尽管以色列去年摧毁了伊朗的空中防御系统，但伊朗仍然能够对美国在中东地区的军事基地和军队构成威胁。虽然伊朗可能无法完全摧毁这些基地，但即使是有限的攻击也足以促使美国采取军事干预。目前，伊朗政权面临着巨大的压力，为了维护其地区领导地位和政权生存，即使军事上不明智，也会选择采取行动。我认为，伊朗可能会利用其在世界各地的代理人网络，包括潜在的在美国境内的特工，发动恐怖袭击或网络攻击。同时，伊朗在红海和霍尔木兹海峡等地也具备一定的军事行动能力，尽管其规模和能力受到限制。然而，如果美国使用强大的炸弹攻击伊朗的核设施，伊朗几乎没有防御能力。总的来说，我认为伊朗在军事上处于劣势，但其采取行动的意愿不容低估，尤其是在政权面临崩溃风险时。
Deep Dive
This chapter explores the limitations of Iran's military capabilities against the US, despite their threats of retaliation. It discusses the disparity in firepower and the potential targets for Iranian attacks, such as US military bases in the region. The limited scale of potential damage and the high risks involved for Iran are also analyzed.
- Iran's military capacity is significantly weaker than the US's.
- Potential targets include US military bases in Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf.
- Iran's attacks would likely be limited in scale.
- The risk of retaliation for Iran is extremely high.
Shownotes Transcript