Murder, malware - Putin's options after Trump shift
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey and Laura Cook. Russia and Ukraine have reached a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea aimed at safeguarding commercial shipping. However, the deal comes at a price.

The White House is set to ease restrictions that have hit the Russian economy. This latest move by the Trump administration has drawn fresh criticism, particularly in light of recent reports that it's ordered a halt to efforts countering Russia's hybrid warfare operations. Until now, national security agencies had been coordinating closely with European allies and with each other, but no longer.

Our guest today is Matt Pearl, who directs the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Think Tank in Washington. Matt, can you talk us through the agencies and the sort of activities they were involved in?

So we had a variety of efforts to confront what Russia was doing in cyberspace and through hybrid warfare in the Biden administration. One was through CyberComm, Cyber Command, which is controlled by DOD and does more military operations in cyberspace. And then we had on the defensive side of things, we had CISA and other agencies that were

trying to combat and deal with Russian cyber attacks. But we also had the National Security Council, which was involved in all those issues. They also had collaborated very closely with some of our allies in order to deal with the Russian threats, both in terms of cybersecurity and some of the attacks that we're seeing on European infrastructure, as

as well as to deal with threats in the real world, arson and assassinations and targeting. And using intelligence that was, you know, according to reports, using intelligence that was gathered in order to share information and allow allies and partners, particularly in Europe, to deal with those threats. And so we have some reports. I don't know that they've been confirmed about the Trump administration backing away from some of those policies.

What can we understand about what's potentially being suspended and what are the implications of that? Yeah, so there were reports that Cyber Command, and I should say that there have been denials of this from the government, American government, but there were reports that Cyber Command was told to suspend offensive operations against Russia, as well as to suspend planning for offensive operations. And so if this was part of a temporary effort in DOD,

to suspend those at a particularly critical moment in negotiations with the Russians over Ukraine. And I think it's understandable. Although I...

I would say if they're suspending planning for operations, I'm not sure why they would need to do that. But I can understand why there might be a temporary suspension of offensive operations. But if it's a lengthy suspension, then that would raise a lot of concerns. There are also reports from CISA that they had been told to deprioritize Russia. They've denied that the officials have denied those reports and said they're still paying attention to Russia. But we do have some reason to give these reports credence. There

There was a State Department official, a deputy assistant secretary at a UN forum, who was talking about the countries that represent threats against the U.S. in cyberspace.

And this person, he did not name Russia, which is, that was a noticeable absence. I can tell you that when US officials talk about the actors in the states that are engaging in very disturbing behavior in terms of cyber attacks and cyber intrusions, it includes China, Iran, North Korea, but it always includes Russia. And so to leave it out did suggest that at least some in the administration are looking at a different approach where we would not confront Putin in the same way in cyberspace.

It's curious, isn't it, how like the recent call between Trump and Putin, we're looking at the official readouts, but it was the gaps in the story that gave us the real details? Yeah, and it does suggest that the Trump administration is trying to take a different approach with Russia. I would say that certainly, you know, we all are all supporters of reaching an accommodation in Ukraine, particularly one that Ukraine, you know, would

would agree to and see as in its interest. And so, you know, it's okay to try things out. But I think that to the extent that there are concerns that the Trump administration is doing unilateral disarmament,

For instance, you know, they're not getting anything for, you know, not confronting the Russian cyber operations and not sharing with allies. That that raises concerns that you want to get something for something. And unless it's part of a deal that includes, you know, careful monitoring and making sure the Russians are holding up their end.

that I would expect, unless it's part of such a deal, that Putin is going to take it as a green light to do what he wants and to accelerate some of the operations that he's doing. Because he'll conclude that the U.S. doesn't care, particularly about cyber attacks and on European infrastructure and other things. So I think it raises very serious concerns. So with that green light, what could Vladimir Putin do to exploit it?

So, you know, I think that in terms of some of the real world, you know, beyond the cyber attacks, the real world things that the US is working with Europe to try to prevent arson, assassination attempts, for instance, against, you know, executives that work it.

companies that are manufacturing equipment that's useful in Ukraine. I would take it as a sign that the US isn't going to help our allies and partners. And so he may try to accelerate some of those efforts and see if he can accomplish more and see if the US doesn't respond. And I think in terms of the whole panoply of operations that the Russians engage in cyberspace, I think he may take it as a sign that he should ramp up those activities. And that includes

You could talk about, you know, tax on critical infrastructure, but that also includes, you know, efforts to use cyberspace in order to benefit the Russian economy. Things like ransomware attacks at hospitals that, you know, generate revenue for cyber, you know, criminal groups in Russia that may share some of the proceeds with the Russian government. So, you know, I think he'd want to test things and see if, you know, he can authorize more of that and see if there's no response from the U.S.

President Trump argues that improved relations with Russia are in America's strategic interest, especially given his oft-repeated warnings about World War III. But how is it all being greeted in US circles?

So I think that it depends on which circles you're talking about. I think that certainly in some Republican circles, there's a desire to take a different approach and to see if we can reach some sort of accommodation with Russia. I think that, you know, others in Washington share that.

similar view in the sense that, yes, it would be great if we could reach an agreement in Ukraine that would establish a ceasefire and perhaps even establish a peace agreement. But that ultimately, with someone like Putin, you really need to take a firm view and you need to confront him about his behavior and really make sure that when you're negotiating a deal that you communicate to him that you understand that

everything he's doing that's concerning and that it's all going to have to be part of some sort of agreement in order to avoid having cyber attacks or other behaviors that he's engaging in get worse. And so I think everyone supports these, you know, negotiations and let's see if we can take an approach where Russia would, you know, play a more constructive role in Europe. But we can't do that unless we're realistic about what Russia is already engaging in and unless we're willing to confront them about that and make sure that

we're going to have an agreement that we monitor what they're doing and that we have ways to ensure that they're going to comply. And so I think that there's a bit of concern that the way that this is being negotiated so far, that there's the lack of confronting them on those issues or calling them out when they're engaging in behavior that's concerning. If, as is reported, this is the Trump administration ignoring intelligence warnings and deprioritizing these issues, how worried should we be?

So it's not clear because we're not privy to some of these conversations. Certainly in the past, the president, as well as others in the administration, have cast doubt on certain intelligence reports that painted Russia as the threat. And so that does suggest that at least some in the administration have.

an approach to things where they tend to discount intelligence that would suggest that Russia is a problem. But, you know, there are also clearly people in the administration at the National Security Council and at the intelligence agencies who recognize the threat that Russia poses and who will be looking for opportunities to highlight that behavior and to persuade people in the administration that they need to take a serious tack. And so, you know, ultimately how this all plays out remains to be seen, but it's going to be

dynamic process in the White House and among the departments and agencies about how seriously we take this and whether we're able to overcome some of that skepticism that we've seen by some in the administration about how much of a threat that Russia poses. Matt, thank you. Matt Pearl is Director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

On tomorrow's World in 10, we'll be looking at Greenland as the U.S. Vice President heads to the country, the highest ranking U.S. official ever to visit. Click follow or subscribe to make sure you don't miss out. But for now, that's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. Hey, you know what would make your customer service help desk way better? Dumping it and then switching to Intercom. But you're not quite ready to make that change. We get it.

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If you work in quality control at a candy factory, you know strict safety regulations come with the job. It's why you partner with Grainger. Grainger helps you find the high quality and compliant products your business needs to inspect, detect, and help correct issues. And the sweetest part is, everyone gets a product that's as safe to eat as it is delicious. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, clickgrainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.