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cover of episode Russia goads Trump on Greenland and stakes its claim

Russia goads Trump on Greenland and stakes its claim

2025/1/10
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World in 10

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Mark Gagliotti
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Mark Gagliotti: 我认为,俄罗斯没有人认真对待特朗普想武力控制格陵兰岛的言论。然而,俄罗斯国内对这一事件存在三种不同的解读。学术和专家界认为这只是特朗普在戏弄世界。克里姆林宫和政府则利用这一机会,让自己显得理性、冷静。例如,普京的发言人表示,他们正密切关注事态发展,因为俄罗斯也是北极强国,并且相信稳定。与此同时,俄罗斯更具煽动性和直言不讳的评论人士和宣传机构则以此为机会,批评美国是欺凌霸权,并认为欧洲国家会屈服于美国。他们向西方发出挑衅,质疑西方的立场。俄罗斯利用格陵兰事件来削弱西方在全球南方国家中的信誉,特别是在非洲,他们将乌克兰战争歪曲成反殖民战争以争取支持。尽管特朗普的言论可能只是虚张声势,但这突显了美国可能变得具有侵略性的可能性,这在一些国家看来并非不切实际。俄罗斯的主要策略是强调所有国家在面临压力时都一样,以此来削弱西方的道德优势。俄罗斯在北极地区的军事行动,部分原因是为了将军事装备移出乌克兰袭击范围,部分原因是象征性地表明俄罗斯已准备好应对来自各方的攻击。俄罗斯目前大部分军事资源都用于乌克兰战争,因此其在北极地区的军事建设有限。俄罗斯在北极地区建设新军事基地,一部分原因是为了应对气候变化导致的永久冻土融化。北极地区的主要问题是融化的海冰开辟了一条新的贸易路线,这将对包括俄罗斯、中国和西方国家在内的多个利益攸关方产生影响。俄罗斯、中国和西方国家都在北极地区有各自的利益,任何一方的军事冲突都将造成巨大的经济损失。如果特朗普最终只是寻求增加美国在格陵兰的影响力,俄罗斯会感到失望,但同时也会利用此事来加强其反西方叙事。俄罗斯无力阻止美国在格陵兰增加军事存在,但会利用此事来争取欧洲民众的支持,并描绘美国为侵略扩张的国家。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Russia interested in the Arctic region, particularly in response to Trump's comments on Greenland?

Russia has strategic interests in the Arctic, including resource extraction and the potential opening of a new trade route due to melting ice. The region is also militarily significant, as Russia has been building new Arctic bases and deploying advanced anti-aircraft missiles there. Trump's comments on Greenland provide Russia an opportunity to position itself as a rational, stability-focused power in contrast to perceived U.S. aggression.

How does Russia portray itself in response to Trump's Greenland remarks?

Russia uses Trump's comments to present itself as a reasonable and stable Arctic power. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized Russia's commitment to peace and stability in the Arctic, while also highlighting its strategic interests. This contrasts with Trump's aggressive rhetoric, allowing Russia to appear as the more responsible actor on the global stage.

What is Russia's military strategy in the Arctic, and how does it relate to its broader geopolitical goals?

Russia has been relocating advanced anti-aircraft missiles to the Arctic and building new bases, partly to secure its northern flank and partly as a symbolic gesture of readiness. However, the majority of Russia's military resources are focused on Ukraine, limiting its capacity for significant Arctic expansion. The Arctic strategy also addresses challenges like melting permafrost, which threatens existing infrastructure.

How does Russia's narrative about the West resonate in the Global South?

Russia's portrayal of the West as hypocritical and self-serving resonates in the Global South, particularly in Africa, where many countries have experienced colonialism. By framing its actions in Ukraine as an anti-colonial struggle, Russia gains sympathy and credibility among nations skeptical of Western dominance and its claims to uphold global stability.

What are the potential economic implications of the Arctic's changing landscape?

The melting Arctic ice is expected to open a new Northern Route, providing a faster and cheaper trade link between China and North America. This route benefits multiple stakeholders, including Russia, which aims to position itself as a steward of the region, and China, which seeks cost-effective shipping. Any conflict in the Arctic could disrupt this economic potential, harming global trade.

How might Russia react if the U.S. establishes a stronger presence in Greenland?

Russia would likely express dismay at a new U.S. base in Greenland but lacks the capacity to prevent it. Instead, Moscow would use the situation to reinforce its narrative of Western aggression and encirclement, appealing to European populations to question their alignment with an expansionist America. However, Russia's ability to act is limited by its ongoing commitments in Ukraine.

Chapters
Following Donald Trump's suggestion of a potential military takeover of Greenland, Russia's response has been a mix of reactions. While officially expressing concern for Arctic stability, Russia is also using the situation to portray itself as a reasonable actor on the world stage, while simultaneously highlighting Western hypocrisy. This strategy is particularly effective in certain parts of the world that are skeptical of Western claims to uphold global order.
  • Russia's official response expresses concern for Arctic stability.
  • Different factions within Russia view Trump's statement differently: experts are dismissive, the government uses it for political advantage, and some commentators see it as an opportunity to criticize the West.
  • Russia's actions in Ukraine are undermining its attempts to appear reasonable globally.
  • Russia's narrative resonates in some parts of the global south, particularly in Africa, where anti-colonial sentiments are strong.

Shownotes Transcript

After Donald Trump refused to rule out using military force to take control of Greenland, the Kremlin weighs in. Russia specialist Mark Galeotti explains what Moscow wants - and what it might do if Trump decides to act.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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