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Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security with me, Toby Gillis, and Alex Dibble. On yesterday's World in 10, we analysed Donald Trump's first 100 days in the White House by trying to put it into a broader historical context with the former Pentagon official Jim Townsend.
Today, Jim joins us again to look into the future and discuss whether the hammer the US president has taken to the West as we knew it might have an everlasting impact. Jim, welcome back. Let's look into your crystal ball, shall we, and focus long term. Do you think we're looking at 100 days ahead?
the reverberations of which will be felt for 100 years? Or could a successor to Trump, who may have very different views, of course, reverse much of his work within weeks, potentially, of Trump leaving the White House? That will not happen. It will not be reversed. After four years, whoever comes into power will have a new world that has been formed by reactions to Trump. So that new person is going to deal with a new world, for sure. New relationships, new
There'll be some good and there's going to be some bad. The good is the West probably needed a good scrubbing. And maybe the Washington, D.C. power center needed a good scrubbing, too. It's getting it now. I think it is probably the best thing that has ever happened to Europe because this gets Europe to break that dependency on the United States.
not just in terms of defense spending, but how does Europe, whether it's the EU or it's just Europe as a continent, the nations of Europe, UK, the scrubbing that will happen over the next four years will result in a future European Union and a future Europe that is probably making more progress in terms of high tech.
Because you know you can't depend on the United States to provide it. And you know that through all the various trade issues and problems that are coming up, that Europe has got to get its act together on whether it's tech, whether it is defense and military. In terms of how does Europe lead, the role of leadership of Europe. In other words, people call Europe a vassal of the United States. That's a bit harsh, right?
But I think certainly the Europe growing up under the shadow of the U.S. oak tree, if you will, for 80 years, with that shadow now being withdrawn, that oak tree walking away, this is what Europe needs to get its act together across a broad front. And again, it's not just defense and military. It's all kinds of things. It's economic, it's trade, it is culture. I mean, you name it. Things have been stunted by growing up in that shadow.
You sound like you think the EU, maybe with the UK or maybe not after Brexit, are likely to become the world's leaders then in the absence of the US.
You know, there's a confidence that Europe, I think, is starting to gain. You know, there's this always bothered me. Europe, your European nations or the EU. Oh, we can't do that. That's only something the U.S. can do. Oh, we can't. You know, that's beyond us. We're you know, I was so tired of hearing that. If Europe can emerge from these four years just with a growth in confidence, then
understanding that there's a hell of a lot Europe can do when it gets its act together and moves in a direction. And this is the UK too. What Trump has done is forced Europe to do this, to get traction on things that should have been doing maybe 20 or 30 years ago.
There's got to be a balance between the welfare state and defense. There's got to be more effort being put into competition. And you hear this. I hear this here in France. There's a great effort to try to get much more done on the tech side and throughout Europe. I mean, to cease regulating everything and instead try to take forward motion and actually innovating and doing things.
I think this is going to happen and I think it's going to happen quicker because the United States is not going to be there holding you back. The U.S. does that. And European nations in the past have allowed that and let that happen because it gave Europe the ability to just kind of outsource the United States things like defense.
You know, but now Europe is going to be forced to face life without the U.S. And I think that's going to be the best thing that's ever happened to Europe. It's going to take a long time and it's not going to be fun. But I think it's got to be done and it's going to be a great benefit to this this period.
So Europe as a leader, potentially. Do you see any other nation rivaling Europe in the race to become the global power? And could there ever be a new US? Or did their rise coincide with a unique set of circumstances immediately after the Second World War?
Well, that's a great question. And I would say 1945 was absolutely unique for the United States to fill a vacuum because you had many of the nations of the West that have been leaders like UK, France, Germany, just either laying in total destruction the way Germany was or recovering from the cost that that war brought to the UK and to France.
You had the US stepping in unscathed, if you will, in terms of its territory and also being a nuclear power and having a roaring economy. So we were a unique country at the time at a unique period where we were able to fill vacuums only opposed by the Soviet Union. Today, the US is not that leader that we were, at least for the next four years.
But your point about, so what does your leadership look like now if it's not the United States? Is this a unique opportunity for someone else? I would say there's a couple of things. It is a unique opportunity, certainly for China. They have been given incredible gifts by what the U.S. has been doing. So certainly they see that this is their time to fill the gaps left by a retreating United States. But I think Europe,
has an opportunity given the leadership in the EU, van der Leyen, Kallis, Keir Starmer, Macron, Merz, and then Poland as well. I think there is a unique opportunity now for Europe to really, if it plays its cards right and doesn't get bogged down in the bureaucracy of it, they can become a very important force in the West.
if not help lead in the West, whether it's the EU as an institution or the national members, Macron or Keir Starmer or whatever. There's an opportunity and a need for the institution, the EU, as well as the nations themselves to rise to this occasion. Europe's got big decisions to make in dealing with an aggressive Russia that is going into hyperdrive now, helped by the US government.
There is money, certainly, within the European Union to fill the vacuum left by the United States, or at least to hold the fork until the U.S. can come back in some iteration. So where is the world going then? What does the future look like, especially in terms of the relationship that the rest of the world does have with the U.S.? I don't have my crystal ball with me today, but I think that...
I think giving Donald Trump and the MAGA people the benefit of the doubt in terms of having a strategy, of having a map and a way forward and something that they can explain and show us the mileposts and the end goal, I think that's giving them a bit more credit than they deserve.
I think instead what we are seeing is an attitude of disruption, an attitude of saying we have been abused by the West and it's time things are going to change. And so there's not a strategy here as much as there is a transactional approach here. And that's not necessarily a new statement, but it is where the U.S. policy is day to day. We're going to do what we want to do, but we're not going to do it for free.
The direction we seem to be going in, as led by the United States, is a direction where the U.S. does not want to be the leader. The U.S. will engage, but we are going to engage in a way that's in our interests. The rest of the world is going to have to pick up the slack.
that there is no such thing, no construct as the West led by the United States as we've been used to. Instead, it's almost every nation for itself. If you want to be in the EU, fine. If you want to be in NATO, fine. So the days of looking towards the United States as leading the band here, that's not where Donald Trump wants to be. That's not where the MAGA people want to be either. And so at least for the next four years,
And I think the West, if you will, will be looking for a leader. Maybe it's going to be a troika of the UK and France and Germany. Maybe it's going to be China. But I think we're in this kind of free fall because we're so used to the United States leading.
and bearing a lot of burdens. And for the next four years, that is not where we're gonna be. Europe and the EU and UK know that their destiny is in their hands now, but we still are gonna need to have a good relationship, but it's not gonna be like the dependency of the past.
OK, Jim Townsend, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for European and NATO Policy at the Pentagon. Thank you again for joining us. Over the course of his first 100 days, Donald Trump has, of course, targeted the US's friends and neighbours, Canada. The impact of that appears to have been a huge swing to the left by Canada's voters at their snap general election. On the 9th of April, we looked at how a freshly elected Mark Carney would spell trouble.
for Trump. Do scroll back and have a listen. For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.
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